Database Bias (contains player names and CAs)

[willmore2k1]

So here are some stats.

Under 18 players with a potential of -9, -10 or over 160. Essentially all the stars of the future that are in the database are in this subset of players.

Nationality, amount of said players.

Algeria 2

Argentina 2

Austria 3

Belarus 1

Belgium 2

Bolivia 1

Bosnia & Herz 1

Brazil 14

Chile 1

Croatia 3

Czech Republic 2

Denmark 1

England 10

France 17

Georgia 2

Germany 1

Ghana 3

Greece 1

Holland 3

Israel 1

Italy 6

Ivory Coast 1

Mexico 3

Morocco 1

Nigeria 2

Paraguay 2

Poland 1

Portugal 4

Scotland 1

Senegal 1

Serbia 1

Slovenia 1

South Korea 1

Spain 9

Switzerland 2

Turkey 1

So here are some of the things that I found interesting. Before seeing the numbers you expect to see a lot of Brazilians, and a high representation from the big five European leagues. Brazil has 14, England 10, France 17, Spain 9, Italy 6, Germany 1. There's surprise number one. France has an excellent youth system, but Germany has developed one in recent years that equals France's, if not eclipses it. And even as good as France is, is it realistic for it to have 17 potential all-world players in the narrow bracket of 16-18 year olds? Why isn't it then dominating every youth competition it enters?

That is issue number one. Issue number two is the breakdown of future stars between countries. The big 5 plus Brazil have 57 potential future stars out of 108 total. That is a staggering amount.

And it's not limited to potential ability, take for instance the current players with an ability of 160+, the 108 best players in the world.

Argentina 11

Bosnia & Herz 1

Brazil 15

Bulgaria 1

Cameroon 1

Croatia 2

Czech Republic 1

England 8

France 12

Germany 9

Ghana 1

Holland 6

Italy 8

Ivory Coast 2

Mali 1

Montenegro 1

Portugal 3

Russia 2

Scotland 1

Senegal 1

Serbia 2

Spain 16

Sweden 1

Uruguay 2

68 of 108 are either from the big 5 European nations or Brazil. The next is Argentina with 11.

Few would argue that those 7 countries are clearly great footballing nations with great talent. But is it rational to say that they have such an abundance of great players, while the rest have 1 or 2 good ones at the most.

Here's a small test. Out of the 108 best players in the world (CA 160+), you would expect no more than 9 or 10 of them to be goalkeepers. (Assuming that GK CA is comparable to field players CA, which I'm not certain, but let's assume that)

In fact, there are 13. It is much harder to judge goalkeepers, as they are in action a scant few times in the game, with the actions of Casillas hardly different from those of CA 120 goalie 90% of the time. A mistake that is visible might happen 2-3 times a season for the good ones, and 6-7 times for the horrible keepers.

Yet the researchers are tasked with measuring goalies as well, so we must judge.

So we have 13 keepers that are the 108 best football players in the world.

Iker Casillas

Julio Cesar

Gianluigi Buffon

Pepe Reina

Hugo Lloris

Victor Valdes

Edwin van der Sar

Petr Cech

Manuel Neuer

Rene Adler

Gomes

Igor Akinfeev

Tim Wiese

Now, I don't know about you, but my untrained eye can spot at least 3 keepers here who wouldn't fit the mold of 108 best in the world. Tim Wiese, Gomes and Victor Valdes. It might be someone else for you. You might have 4 or 5. But I challenge someone to say that all of these 13 have the football ability of Pato (CA 161), Mesut Ozil (CA 160), Karim Benzema (CA 165), Luis Suarez (CA 163) etc.

What's more, of these keepers, curiously, there are 3 Germans, 3 Spaniards, 2 Brazilians. 8 of the 13. Is it really the golden generation of German goalkeepers? Is Victor Valdes really on the level of Casillas and Reina? Is Gomes truly one of the 13 best goalkeepers in the world?

Is it just me, or is there perhaps a small bias in assigning the CA values to players based in England, Spain or Germany? Yes, they have the best clubs in the world at the moment, but simple membership in the league should not boost a player's CA by 5-10 points by default.

/rant

[edgar555]

Your point on Germans is a fine one, however this is due to the head researcher, he has been rather swingeing in his cuts to CA's/PA's and many players have been downgraded by him (Muller and Schweinsteiger probably the 2 highest profile). This is a bone of contention and in the editors hideaway you will find the Bayern researchers xml fix for this.

As for the keepers, yes Germany have a golden generation so no problem with that. If Victor Valdes was any other nationality (apart from German) he would be an international regular, he's unfortunate that Saint Iker and Reina are ahead of him. As for Gomes, I don't see anyone not on that list who could be classed as better than him so again no problem.

If you have an issue with the data you should raise it in the appropriate forum with evidence of what and why it is wrong.

[Maidel]

Issue number two is the breakdown of future stars between countries. The big 5 plus Brazil have 57 potential future stars out of 108 total. That is a staggering amount.

Im not sure I see the problem with this?

I susspect the only slightly dubious stat is the number of English players at the top of their game, other than that, I dont see an issue with this at all.

[mackemforever]

I don't see a problem with anything you posted up there.

Of course you would expect to see the big nations having a large proportion of the world class players and potential stars. They have huge populations relative to most of the nations you posted up there, they have very good football league systems, and they have a large number of teams with fantastic scouting systems to find the talent within their country, and they have the facilities to develop them.

As for the keepers, I do believe that all of the guys you listed are world class.

Valdes would walk into virtually any international team and would be first choice at just about any club in the world. The only reason he can't get regular games at international level is because he is behind Casillas, who is probably the best keeper in the world at the moment.

With Gomes, I do think he is a world class keeper. The problem he has is that if his confidence goes then he really struggles, a lot more than other keepers do. For example, when he moved to Tottenham, there was something not right, he was making errors that he had never done in his career before, and it took a while for him to get his confidence back up and settle down, but now that he has he is a fantastic keeper.

[Matt123456]

Im not sure I see the problem with this?

I susspect the only slightly dubious stat is the number of English players at the top of their game, other than that, I dont see an issue with this at all.

Ditto as here, especially with the highlighted point, although I'd probably expect Holland and Germany especially to have more "wonderkids" as well. Apart from that, I can really see a problem.

[AcidBurn]

Victor Valdes is a world class GK and so is Gomes, he just makes the odd mistake here and there but shot stopping wise he is great only Reina is better in the EPL.

[x42bn6]

I don't really see a problem with the England number. Rooney, Lampard, Gerrard, Ashley Cole and Rio Ferdinand are amongst the best in the world when on form. It's when they decide to play as a team where things go wrong. As a team, England are not the sum of their parts - not anywhere near it.