AI Experiment - what would happen if?

[betterspud]

I already mailed Kipfizh to the addy in his profile some time ago, asking if he'd be interested in writing something for us, but never got a reply...

Could be that the address is wrong?

kipfizh if you see this, I'd be VERY interested in covering this in some way in the fanzine. Feel free to contact me on fmfanzine@tiscali.co.uk

Cheers

[deltablue]

well he's very busy at the mo, so don't count on anything soon

[Mravac Kid]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Mravac Kid:

The stadium started out as an 80000 seater, which they filled regularly. The board later increased the capacity, maybe even twice, I can't remember.

Actually that's not true.

Look back on page 6 where I outlined the stadium. I set the minimum attendance to 80000, the maximum to 140000, and the ground capacity to 140000.

So they will never expand the stadium because it fulfils the needs of their maximum fanbase. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Far be it for me to question you about your own project... but in the very first post you say they have an 80K stadium they regularly fill, and I distinctly remember mention of a stadium upgrade somewhere.

Is it possible that my fringe memory of the stadium originally being 120K and later expanded to 140 is correct?

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by Mravac Kid:

Far be it for me to question you about your own project... but in the very first post you say they have an 80K stadium they regularly fill, and I distinctly remember mention of a stadium upgrade somewhere.

Is it possible that my fringe memory of the stadium originally being 120K and later expanded to 140 is correct?

I've just read my first post again and I did say that!

Honestly, you'd think I'd actually know the answers to these questions

My bad!

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by betterspud:

I already mailed Kipfizh to the addy in his profile some time ago, asking if he'd be interested in writing something for us, but never got a reply...

Could be that the address is wrong?

kipfizh if you see this, I'd be VERY interested in covering this in some way in the fanzine. Feel free to contact me on fmfanzine@tiscali.co.uk

Cheers

Hi there - sorry about missing your mail, but I've swung a mail over now

Happy to help in any way

[ljdzsgffk]

I've been following this since page 21. Took me a couple of hours to read it all but it was worth it

Good work kipfizh.

I do have an idea though. Instead of calling the players "Goalkeeper 1" etc, the next time you do the experiment you could ask the users in the forums to give their own names so then we could kind of "follow" how we are doing in your game.

[BenArsenal]

Originally posted by ljdzsgffk:

I've been following this since page 21. Took me a couple of hours to read it all but it was worth it

Good work kipfizh.

I do have an idea though. Instead of calling the players "Goalkeeper 1" etc, the next time you do the experiment you could ask the users in the forums to give their own names so then we could kind of "follow" how we are doing in your game.

That would be a sign up.

[kipfizh]

Well, hopefully everyone enjoyed the Christmas break, it has been an extended break from the Bandits but that will shortly change.

There won't be a seasonal update before the end of the season because I'm at a wedding tomorrow and over the weekend I will instead be preparing something else for this thread...

It is now the end of 2007, and everywhere you look you see annual reviews. Well, given that this thread began on January 12, and has therefore been going for almost the whole year, it would be remiss of me not to follow.

So coming soon is a 'best and worst of' annual review. Some topics are obvious, some less so, but hopefully it'll be a fun sidetrack.

Until then...

[G_D_K]

Sounds great Kip! Looking forward to it. Enjoy your weekend---be safe!

[FlownCanary]

I'm so looking forward to seeing how Left Back 1 does as manager, couldn't believe he was sacked as England manager, but hey one team's loss, another team's game. Had to read through 3 back pages of this thread as I've been hooked on my FM08 Game, but I'm really looking forward to next season.

Oh and to all Bandits fans and especially kipfizh, Happy New Year!!

[kipfizh]

And we're back!

Well, it's been quite the break from the Bandits, but it's time to get back to business. The end of year report will come, but I decided it'd be worth writing a season report first, as I've deprived you for so long!

Just to recap, as its been a while, the Bandits recovered to fifth last season while making a decent fist of the Champions League. Stuart Davies retired, so a new manager will step in and take charge of the club with their reputation at an all time high.

[kipfizh]

Season 2048-49

Bandits report - Transfers

Transfers In

Transfers Out

The big news on everyone’s mind this summer was the retirement of Stuart Davies who, although suffering from an apparent lack of ability, had done a very decent job as manager of the Bandits. With Goalkeeper 1 brought in as assistant manager for his final season, there were rumours that the former Bandit would step up to take on the managerial challenge.

But then Left Back 1 became available, and two days after England sacked him, he became manager back at the club where he began, 42 years ago. He’d had relative success with England, so there was encouragement there, and his reputation was huge as a result. The board went for the big name, but under the glamour and the kudos, is he really a good manager?

The downside is that England had some fantastic players, so it is hard to tell how good a job he did. France won the Euros with a similar level of player, but then Spain went out in the group stages, so it’s extremely difficult to tell based on only a few matches. His CA isn’t promising, at 90 someway below his PA of 110, and he isn’t getting any better. The 59 year old has expectations on his shoulders as a result of his reputation – can he match them?

Left Back 1

Much like Stuart Davies before him, his attributes suggest that he is a better coach than manager – on the training ground he is superb, but motivation and tactical knowledge scores of 1 are not impressive. What’s more – Goalkeeper 1, the assistant, is slightly better all round but has the same weaknesses – the team has little tactical awareness, and couldn’t motivate an alcoholic to go to the bar.

He is also very cautious and unambitious – will that be reflected in the summer activity?

Summer

With the youth intake this season not producing the sort of starlet it managed last time around, a group of young players were instantly let go, but they were followed by a player who some had believed would go on to be a world star.

Adam Williamson has a PA of 189, and with his CA now up to 162, should, by all rights, be a fantastic midfielder. But his performances have been shocking so far, and no-one had been able to make the most of his potential. Last season, he averaged 5.78 for the Bandits. Liverpool came in, convinced that they could fit him into their plans, and with his ability levels so high, they were willing to splash out a massive 10.75m for him – a huge gamble. It isn’t paying off so far, Williamson has somehow managed to play even worse for Liverpool, where he averages 5.58. A player who caused great excitement in his youth days, he won’t be missed.

The last man to go was veteran Barry Garrard, who had fallen completely out of favour. Again, the fans didn’t mind too much.

So, with no first teamers sold the fans weren’t too unhappy, and they turned their attention to the players being brought in.

First in the door was Romain Remy, a 26 year old French central midfielder, who, with a CA and PA of 166, would add steel to the middle of the park. He wasn’t cheap, costing 13.5m from Lille, but he went on to be a first teamer for the whole season.

Gabriele Corradini was next to arrive, a 27 year old Argentinian who would play regularly at right back before he broke his leg towards the end of the season. A 5m capture from Marseille, the fans weren’t entirely convinced by his CA of 150, and liked him less when he promptly fell out with Graham Thomas, one of the club’s brightest prospects.

The last man to arrive before the window shut was left winger Antonio Carnevale. While a 21 year old Italian left winger might sound like a good signing, he has a CA of 128 and a PA of only 135, so it was a strange signing. He never appeared for the first team, unsurprisingly.

And that was it. The first XI didn’t lose any players, and in Remy and Corradini they had two players that would play a lot of football as the season went on. In Williamson, they had lost a prospect, but it wasn’t looking that his potential was likely to be fulfilled anyway. Life goes on.

January

Veteran Alexandr Solovjov, a player that had fallen badly out of favour, left in January to the surprise of no-one. Clive Thompson, at 27 still decent but only a squad player, then moved to Arsenal. Phil Dixon, another veteran, soon departed, before Gary Kelly, never a regular on the right wing, earned the Bandits a decent 3.4m.

So far, so good. A lot of the deadwood was being cut adrift, with the first XI completely untouched. That was to remain the case, but Left Back 1’s final sale before January ended was a disappointing one nonetheless.

Kyle Cox had graduated through the academy only a year ago, and with a PA of 177 had shown a great deal of potential. Left Back 1 didn’t see it, and allowed him to move to Wycombe for just 875k. Still only 18, he remains a terrific prospect, and will be monitored.

After the transfer window ended, Thibault Pichet also left, but the central defender had been fading for a while and had barely got near the first team.

So, attention turned once again to new signings, but the fans had to wait until a week before the window shut for any action. Having signed an Italian left winger in August, Left Back 1 followed it up with the signing of an Italian left wing back in Orazio Greco. But again, the 24 year old wouldn’t make a dent in the first team, with a CA of 145 and a PA of 151. Costing 3.1m from Derby, everyone expected more.

And more they got. Welshman Martyn Jones, who could play on either wing but was more comfortable on the left, was snapped up for a whopping 16.75m from Man City, largely because of his enormous PA of 183. However, at 29, his CA had dropped to 163 and was only going to go down further. He was nothing but a short term solution.

The final signing of the season captured the imagination a little more. Turkish centre back Bayram Fatih was, at 26, approaching his peak, and with a CA of 169, potentially rising to 173, he could hold down a slot at the back for the next three to four years. Many of the squad thought his signing to be an excellent one, and costing 12.5m from Espanyol, he should be good.

No more signings were made, and the fans were left wondering about the state of their squad. 54m had been spent, but no stars had arrived, nor any player likely to become a star in a few years time. Remy and Fatih could challenge for first team football immediately, but with the existing first XI getting so old, they hadn’t been properly replaced and there was a worry that as age caught up with them they would all start to fade together.

Not only that, but the squad had been severely thinned, and while most of the players released would not expect to play much football, injuries in any position could leave the Bandits vulnerable.

It was difficult to tell whether they were stronger or weaker – how would they do under their new manager?

[kipfizh]

Bandits report - squad

Top 20 in Squad (sorted by CA)

Name, Pos, Age, CA-PA

Martin, ST, 26, 178-178 (+5)

Johnstone, GK, 29, 172-173 (0)

Americo, ST, 24, 172-172 (+9)

de Jong, DC, 28, 170-170 (0)

Fatih, DC, 26, 169-173 – new signing

Finley, ST, 28, 168-169 (-1)

Mnguni, D/WB L, 31, 167-175 (-3)

Remy, DM, 26, 166-166 – new signing

Jones, AM RL, 29, 163-183 – new signing

Vincent, MC, 30, 163-181 (-1)

Hernandez, AM RL, 30, 163-174 (-1)

Beckham, GK, 29, 161-161 (+2)

Hansen, D/WB R, 29, 158-172 (-2)

van den Berg, AM C, 26, 157-157 (0)

McDermott, ST, 31, 156-159 (0)

Ernst, DC, 31, 152-165 (-6)

Paris, GK, 32, 152-156 (-1)

Thomas, DC, 20, 151-173 (+12) – new entry in top 20

Corradini, D/WB R, 27, 150-167 – new signing

Dreyfus, AM L, 32, 149-186 – on loan from Real Madrid

Players in last season’s top 20 who have left the club:

Pichet, DC, 27, 159-161

Williamson, MC, 21, 156-189

Thompson, DL, 26, 152-157

Dixon, D/M C, 28, 151-157

Players in last season’s top 20 who have dropped out of the top 20:

Sanchez, AM RL, 32, 144-157 (-7)

Orlov, AM LC, 32, 143-169 (-12)

Martin gains the last five points to reach 178, and become the best player in the club’s history, while five new signings make it into the top 20. With no-one of any note leaving, this makes the squad appear stronger than last season.

The only concern is that of age – very few of these players are going to improve, leaving a lot of responsibility on the likes of Michael Thomas, who at 20 already has a CA over 150. He is quite the prospect.

Notable others:

Sayer, ST, 18, 105-174 (+17)

With Kyle Cox sold and Michael Thomas moving into the top 20, the only player outside the list of note is Tom Sayer, who needs to be retained.

CA of X or above:

190 : 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

180 : 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

170 : 0 … 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4

160 : 0 … 2, 3, 3, 3, 7, 8, 10, 9, 12

150 : 0 … 11, 15, 17, 15, 19, 16, 21, 20, 19

140 : 0 … 22, 27, 27, 24, 26, 20, 26, 25, 25

130 : 0 … 28, 33, 34, 29, 29, 26, 30, 30, 28

120 : 0 … 30, 34, 36, 30, 32, 28, 31, 30, 29

110 : 0 … 30, 36, 36, 31, 32, 28, 32, 31, 31

100 : 2 … 32, 39, 40, 34, 33, 30, 38, 34, 33

Not a lot of change, with the squad size reducing slightly, but the key statistic is the rise of the 160+ players from nine to twelve. The squad looks good for this season, but how much long term planning is being done?

[VonBlade]

I'm instantly worried. Another 10 years of this and we could be enjoying conference footy again

[dniprofan]

Originally posted by VonBlade:

I'm instantly worried. Another 10 years of this and we could be enjoying conference footy again

huh?

we finished fifth in the prem last year and are now by all indications a slightly better team, I'm afraid i don't see how we're going to drop four divs that quickly.

[5ergio]

Originally posted by dniprofan:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by VonBlade:

I'm instantly worried. Another 10 years of this and we could be enjoying conference footy again

huh?

we finished fifth in the prem last year and are now by all indications a slightly better team, I'm afraid i don't see how we're going to drop four divs that quickly. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Aging squad of decent players --> We have seen this figure more than once in the history of Bandits. Never got relegated but was always thereabouts so it is indeed worrying as VonBlade said.

Europe football to add more fatigue --> Now this will be some challenge to aging squad. If rotation fails, then we could see Bandits well underachieving.

Tactically & Motivationally incompetent duo + Ambitions of 1 --> This is something to watch out also. They could well opt for an early quit in Europe to fight good in EPL. Also pushing 'ambitiously' forward won't be their biggest motivation for sure.

Spending Big =? Winning Big --> This is the question of todays football in fact. But I've never seen it work good enough for Bandits tbh. £54M to add only 3 160+ CAed players? Kinda high for my standards. What if they don't fit in the squad?

On a side note, I'm proud that Bandits have signed a Turkish player in the end. Man, we do produce quality players once in a while Not mentioning the world beater Abdulkadir

Happy new year to all Bandits family, wish we had a good season

[spoonguardreturns]

I hope we're not about to see another Oxford United. I can't have that happen to another one of my favourite teams.

To add to 5ergio's list:

- Poor signings - Two players with PA nowhere near enough to merit a first team spot, and one aging player, who costs a lot and will probably remain first team for about two seasons.

- Bad financial control - The board has sanctioned £54M to spend on players. If the Bandits don't deliver any European progress or high league placement this year, it would see them make a huge financial loss. If Left Back 1 does this again next year, the whole structure could come crashing down, and a debt-ridden, administrated Bandits with a 10 point defecit aren't going to be looking particularly high in the table.

[Ste93]

Originally posted by spoonguardreturns:

I hope we're not about to see another Oxford United. I can't have that happen to another one of my favourite teams.

To add to 5ergio's list:

- Poor signings - Two players with PA nowhere near enough to merit a first team spot, and one aging player, who costs a lot and will probably remain first team for about two seasons.

- Bad financial control - The board has sanctioned £54M to spend on players. If the Bandits don't deliver any European progress or high league placement this year, it would see them make a huge financial loss. If Left Back 1 does this again next year, the whole structure could come crashing down, and a debt-ridden, administrated Bandits with a 10 point defecit aren't going to be looking particularly high in the table.

are you mad!! moneys no issue... bandits are the richest club in the world with something like 600 million in the bank, im not worried about money.

[spoonguardreturns]

But, even with lots of money, spending extravagently needs to be carefully considered. If they spend too much, and end up losing millions a month through wages and other payments, that £600 million will go surprisingly fast. All I was saying is that some sort of financial stability needs to be present, no matter how much money the club has.

[Meitheisman]

Didn't have time to read the last bit yet but just wanted to wish a Happy New Year to Kipfizh, the Bandits and all of their fans

[G_D_K]

Crossing my fingers here---hoping our Tandem of old bandits can inspire something special for this season---and look to a better transfer market next time around...

[Mravac Kid]

Originally posted by spoonguardreturns:

But, even with lots of money, spending extravagently needs to be carefully considered. If they spend too much, and end up losing millions a month through wages and other payments, that £600 million will go surprisingly fast. All I was saying is that some sort of financial stability needs to be present, no matter how much money the club has.

The Bandits have a 140K stadium, chock-full every game. They could probably fuel half the Premiership's wages with their match income.

So unless they sign all the world's 180+ PA players for 120K p/w, there's absolutely no way for them to gonna get into financial trouble.

(and if they did that they'd get big results, so win-win. )

Their problems simply cannot be money-related, but the lack of squad improvement is something to keep an eye on. For now they're good enough, but by the end of next season they had better bring in some top-class talents.

[Meitheisman]

I understand everyone's pessimism but I don't think we're doing this bad. Sure the team could be younger and more talented but we're only making our first fee apparitions in Europe, patience is key, it's like waiting for the next update

[spoonguardreturns]

Possibly the money was a misjudged comment. It was mainly a flashback from FM06, where I was a club with a lot of money, spent millions on a talented regen, and the clubs finance collapsed within two years. Since then, I've always been suspicious of rich clubs.

[AB-forever]

The new manager sure doesn't look like a genius on the transfer market

But I'm SO glad that we finally got an update

KUTGW Kip

[earmack]

Pertaining 'bad' transfers: People seem to obsessed with the CA figure (I know for the purposes of this thread its the best/easiest way to illustrate how good a player is but regardless). As of this moment I have a 35 year old with a CA of 92, he's playing in my Barnet Premiership team (FM 07)in 2013/14 season. His average rating is 7.5 over 18 games (premiership). Now why/how is this the case if his CA's so low? Because he has stats in the 18'+s for tackling,marking,passing,off the ball,bravery,long shots,composure,concentration etc.. In my reserves is a player with exactly 92 CA as well, his highest stat is 9. So I think we can all see the disparity there and thus can agree CA is not definitive evidence of skill/ability or lack of it.

Also 2nding the feeling that the Bandits will do just fine, they are now a REPUTABLE club and have always been filthy rich. They will not fall from the Premiership now or ever (barring a bug in the financial model).

[Guest arrogantio]

I bet your player has pretty shocking pace and acceleration, which are the most important stats for most roles in FM. Obviously your tactical setup has done a good job of playing to his strengths.

I agree with the general thrust of your argument though...there are plenty of players with CAs in the 140s that are far more useful at the top end of the Premiership than those in the 160s, especially given some of the fairly odd ways regens have their stats distributed. At lower levels the importance and rarity of good physical stats skews things even more.

[earmack]

Originally posted by arrogantio:

I bet your player has pretty shocking pace and acceleration, which are the most important stats for most roles in FM. Obviously your tactical setup has done a good job of playing to his strengths.

I agree with the general thrust of your argument though...there are plenty of players with CAs in the 140s that are far more useful at the top end of the Premiership than those in the 160s, especially given some of the fairly odd ways regens have their stats distributed. At lower levels the importance and rarity of good physical stats skews things even more.

Yeh he has 4 and 8 for acceleration and pace respectively but as a central midfielder (one of three) pace isn't as important as for say a center back or winger. I dare say if he was a defender he wouldn't be able to play in the premiership effectively purely because of his lack of speed.

Some nice additional info on my save is that Man Utd and Chelsea despite all of their first team players having 160+ CA are 18th and 15th half way through the season.

On your note about regens having weirdly distributed stats, I've seen defenders with basically no good defensive stats (marking, concentration etc..)and impressive attacking stats. Which is pretty stupid.

[Meitheisman]

Although I agree with the general idea (CA isn't everything and doesn't perfectly represent a player's ability) I don't think your examples are good enough since plenty of other factors come into play such as your tactic, the players surrounding him, the opponents you face... to be able to compare 2 players you'd need to play them in the EXACT same conditions for dozens of games and even then the average rating will not be enough to tell which player was better than the other.

[earmack]

Originally posted by Meitheisman:

Although I agree with the general idea (CA isn't everything and doesn't perfectly represent a player's ability) I don't think your examples are good enough since plenty of other factors come into play such as your tactic, the players surrounding him, the opponents you face... to be able to compare 2 players you'd need to play them in the EXACT same conditions for dozens of games and even then the average rating will not be enough to tell which player was better than the other.

Paul Wotton : 35, CA = 92, games played = 23, average rating = 7.5, position = Central Midfield

Phillipe Faure : 21, CA = 147, games played = 17, average rating = 6.8, position = Central midfield (regen)

John Cutter : 23, CA = 138, games played = 20, average rating = 7.1, position = Central midfield (regen)

Dickson Etuhu : 30, CA = 127, games played = 15, average rating = 7.0, position = Central midfield

Henny Van Den Berg : 25, CA = 154, games played = 5 (suffered two 2+ month injuries), average rating = 8.0, position = Central midfield (dunno if hes a regen)

Thats all I can say about CA, I mean I'm not some tactical monster who can make awful players play well, Wotton works in my system because he doesn't have to run much (he plays like Huddlestone does in real life).

My final note on CA, my best ever player ( a regen on FM 05) had a CA of 173, 20ish less than the 'top' strikers in the premiership, he scored 30+ goals a season for (at least) 10 seasons, his lowest season average rating was 7.5 (roughly). I can win any division with no player over 160 CA, not because I'm brilliant but because some 150 CA players have exceptional stats for their positions, its just a matter of finding them.

[Meitheisman]

I perfectly get your point like I said before already but I don't think that average rating is a better way of measuring a player's talent.

I'll take an example to illustrate my point:

- Player X plays better than a 7 every game but not well enough to get an 8... he'll get a 7.0 avg.

- Player Y plays a bit below 7 every game but not bad enough to get a 6... then your team win a game 5-0, just by being on the field player Y gets an 8...

Let's say this happened after 10 games, player Y will have a 7.1 avg rating while player X will have a 7.0 even though we know he is a better player.

Just like you are arguing that CA isn't 100% accurate I am basically arguing that nothing is in FM and this is why you have to take as many factors as you can into consideration... sort of like it is irl.

[earmack]

Yes, I foolishly fell into a trap I was pointing out, Average rating is of course not much better than CA as an indication of talent.

I've had players who have awful games get 8's because their mistakes didn't lead to goals and players who were instrumental in a victory get a 6 because they didn't score from 25 yards.

BUT an average rating taken over a season or so IS a better indicator of ability than CA, I forget the name, but there was a player on the 'stars of the world'(paraphrase) watch, who had a massive CA but did absolutely nothing (his average rating every season was woeful).

I agree with your point though, its hard to judge a player unless your actually watching them 'play' and understanding their 'situation' (unsettled, doesn't like the country/fellow players etc..).

[Meitheisman]

I disagree with the fact that Avg rating is a better indicator than CA for several reasons but the main one is that an average player in a really good team will get great average rating just because his team wins more than it loses while a great player in a relegation fighting team will get bad average ratings because his team is performing poorly.

Countless times I saw a defender who barely did anything in the entire game get an 8 because my team won 3 or 4-0... or a striker get a 6 even though the midfielders never managed to give him the ball (hence not his fault).

[AB-forever]

Originally posted by earmack:

there was a player on the 'stars of the world'(paraphrase) watch, who had a massive CA but did absolutely nothing (his average rating every season was woeful).

Maia in Kipfizh' AI Experiment his CA was 199 but his highest avg. rating in 5 seasons was 6.17

[AB-forever]

Originally posted by AB-forever:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by earmack:

there was a player on the 'stars of the world'(paraphrase) watch, who had a massive CA but did absolutely nothing (his average rating every season was woeful).

Maia in Kipfizh' AI Experiment his CA was 199 but his highest avg. rating in 5 seasons was 6.17 </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

And I didn't even notice that I was IN the thread

[2000AD]

Wow, I just spent over an hour speed reading through this.

My one main question is this:

Even after the Bandits retired, England continued dominating (winning loads, not conceeding goals) for a while longer. They also seem to have consistantly a higher number of high PA players than other countries.

Could it be that the massive talent of the Bandits raised some attribute in the England profile that made it more likely that England will generate better players?

[dniprofan]

Originally posted by 2000AD:

Wow, I just spent over an hour speed reading through this.

My one main question is this:

Even after the Bandits retired, England continued dominating (winning loads, not conceeding goals) for a while longer. They also seem to have consistantly a higher number of high PA players than other countries.

Could it be that the massive talent of the Bandits raised some attribute in the England profile that made it more likely that England will generate better players?

It could also be that the game/database was created by the english.

[kipfizh]

Re: the financial situation of the club - even in a season where the Bandits spent so much on player transfers, and didn't qualify for the Champions League, they still made a profit.

The remaining transfer budget for the club is over half a billion and rising, and the wage bill is 20% of the budget. They're really fine.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by Meitheisman:

I understand everyone's pessimism but I don't think we're doing this bad. Sure the team could be younger and more talented but we're only making our first fee apparitions in Europe, patience is key, it's like waiting for the next update

Indeed - we're all used to gradual improvement because the Bandits have always had the financial advantage over their rivals - sooner or later they'd come good.

Only now things are more tricky. Chelsea have a transfer budget of 1.4bn, the Bandits 593m, Arsenal 462m. Effectively, all three clubs have unlimited financial muscle, so the advantage the Bandits previously held is comprehensively wiped out.

Behind that trio, current dominant team Sheff Wed have a budget of 41m, Liverpool 37m, and the rest below 30m. It is one world for one set, one world for another.

It is worth bearing in mind that these things change, however. Liverpool and Unitd are not what they were, and although Chelsea will always have money to burn, it is reputation that now counts. If everyone will pay 50m for a player, who wins is determined by the trophy winning reputation of the club.

On that note, the Bandits have been steadily improving for years. There is a long way to go - Sheff Wed and Chelsea are currently a dominant pairing and will be hard to shift, while others like West Ham are perennially up there too, but this is a slower changing beast.

What we need is long term thinking. Of course, what manager thinks like that?

[kipfizh]

Re: CA v average rating vs other factors

Interesting debate on the virtues of rating players based upon their CA or average rating. You're all right in your arguments, and of course although I provide these stats they by no means definitively rate a player.

Average rating is a good way to compare the Bandits, to an extent, because they are playing in the same team and are therefore less affected by the phenomenon Meitheisman describes, where your rating is dragged up or down by the performances of your teammates. That said, players are often played out of position and this hurts them badly (the most notable being many manager's insistence on playing defensive midfielders in central midfield and watching them get a 6.20 average).

CA is the most obvious rater of the player's actual skill level, and now that the Fred system has evolved, you get less of the players who are completely unsuitable for their position. Again, that isn't always true, and I must admit I never examined Maia's stats in detail, but he is the perfect example of a useless 'wonder player'. A CA of 199 for years, yet he played appallingly in a talented side.

In fact, playing for Milan, he played abysmally in a team containing Carlo Lupo, who averaged over 8.00.

So I guess the only true description is the screenshot itself, so if you need any more of those, let me know. I include them for the world stars, and the Bandits, for this very reason - it may become clear who is the talent and who isn't.

Ryan Morley is an excellent example. With a CA in the 170s, he often outperformed those in the 190s. A quick look at his attributes explained why - he was powerful in the air, fast on the ground, skilful, and a great finisher. Sure, he couldn't tackle, mark, cross or take a free kick to save his life, but as a front man he didn't need to - he was perfectly effective at his own job.

So what am I trying to say? Basically, I agree with you - there's no definitive marker of a better player, perhaps that's one of the best things about this game, that it isn't easy to pick which of two players will offer you more in a match. I quite like that, really, even though it makes some statistical analysis a bit loose.

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by dniprofan:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by 2000AD:

Wow, I just spent over an hour speed reading through this.

My one main question is this:

Even after the Bandits retired, England continued dominating (winning loads, not conceeding goals) for a while longer. They also seem to have consistantly a higher number of high PA players than other countries.

Could it be that the massive talent of the Bandits raised some attribute in the England profile that made it more likely that England will generate better players?

It could also be that the game/database was created by the english. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think it's more that the only selected country is England. We are now over forty years into the future, so any initial database setup of players is pretty much irrelevant - they've long since retired. Every player in the game is now a regen.

So the question is - why are the English clubs now so good? Well, the trouble is with not selecting all leagues, you don't get an accurate reflection of the rest of the world, which doesn't make for a level playing field. I'm sure if adjusted slightly, the problem might go the other way, in that non-selected countries do far too well. Who knows.

The reality is though that in the Bandits II experiment, many many more leagues will be run.

[TPA]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

The reality is though that in the Bandits II experiment, many many more leagues will be run.

Do you have any rough idea when this new experiment will kick off?

[kipfizh]

Originally posted by TPA:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kipfizh:

The reality is though that in the Bandits II experiment, many many more leagues will be run.

Do you have any rough idea when this new experiment will kick off? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Realistically, it'll be a FM09 project - there's a lot more to get through in this one yet, and given that the next experiment will take more setting up than this one (because of a few ideas I have), starting for FM08 won't be a great idea as FM09 will come out early in the process.

[Da Bird]

Still nice work kipfizh!

I would like, if permitted, to add an idea to the potential FM09-project. Would it be an idea to run the new game with exact the same settings on two different computers?

[Batsnumbereleven]

After reading this, I've become inspired to try something similar (using FM06).

I don't have the same level of attention to give to this as Kipifzh has (and am not going to hi-jack this thread any further than this one post), but from the experiment so far, I've made a few changes to see what will happen.

I've created three players at each of a full range of positions (GK, DL, DR, WBR, WBL, DC x2, DMC, ML, MR, MC, AMR, AML, AMC, FC x2); one player with "good" mental skills (as per the Bandits), one with "bad" mental skills (as per the idiots) and one with totally random mental skills.

I placed a player at each of the 44 Conference North/South clubs and one at each of 4 Scottish Division 3 clubs. This provides each player with a similar opportunity to be scouted and signed without the success of one (excellently filled Bandits) team affecting them.

I've selected a number of European leagues to run, to see how that experience affects the number of the stars that are transferred abroad (and to be able to track them there, too).

After one season, the first impressions are rather amusing: the "idiots" (and some of the "randoms") have managed to attract the attention of Premiership/SPL clubs through their whinging about wanting to play at a higher level than the "good" players, and a far greater proportion of them have moved after one season!

[cms186]

Originally posted by kipfizh:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by dniprofan:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by 2000AD:

Wow, I just spent over an hour speed reading through this.

My one main question is this:

Even after the Bandits retired, England continued dominating (winning loads, not conceeding goals) for a while longer. They also seem to have consistantly a higher number of high PA players than other countries.

Could it be that the massive talent of the Bandits raised some attribute in the England profile that made it more likely that England will generate better players?

It could also be that the game/database was created by the english. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think it's more that the only selected country is England. We are now over forty years into the future, so any initial database setup of players is pretty much irrelevant - they've long since retired. Every player in the game is now a regen.

So the question is - why are the English clubs now so good? Well, the trouble is with not selecting all leagues, you don't get an accurate reflection of the rest of the world, which doesn't make for a level playing field. I'm sure if adjusted slightly, the problem might go the other way, in that non-selected countries do far too well. Who knows.

The reality is though that in the Bandits II experiment, many many more leagues will be run. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I agree with Kip, I always load up all major european leagues in my game and there is no "english" domination in my games.

[Meitheisman]

Originally posted by Da Bird:

Still nice work kipfizh!

I would like, if permitted, to add an idea to the potential FM09-project. Would it be an idea to run the new game with exact the same settings on two different computers?

I think this is a brilliant idea, Kipfizh should actually run the experiment on 50 different computers, that way it would take an entire real life year to get a report...

[Grevenfhi]

really amazing work here i just reeaded this thread and cant wait for the next update

[kipfizh]

Bandits report – Season report

There were mixed predictions going into the new season – on the one hand, the Bandits had the highest reputation in their history, a strong squad containing many players at their peak, and a manager who had been successful with England.

On the other hand, the managerial team shared the same weaknesses, the signings had been less than inspiring, and the squad was aging to a point where long term plans looked to be being ignored.

After an opening day defeat to Aston Villa, the league season got back on track with wins over Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and Liverpool before the UEFA Cup campaign began. Lens were the opponents in round one, and after Scott McDermott had earned the Bandits a creditable 1-1 draw in France, a Javier Esteban Martin hattrick sealed a comfortable 4-0 victory in the home leg, sending them through to the group stages.

Meanwhile, the domestic form was faltering badly. Seven domestic games passed without a win, seeing the Bandits dumped out of the League Cup at Championship Reading, and fall to 16th in the Premiership after a terrible run, including a 3-0 defeat at West Brom, who were inspired by former Bandits Michael Lancashire.

So it was with little confidence that they stepped into the UEFA Cup group stages, to face ties against Espanyol, Roma, Aberdeen and PAOK Salonika. It would not be easy.

Or so we thought. Espanyol came to town and were dispatched 4-1 with the Bandits shaking off their stuttering domestic form, before a superb 2-0 win was achieved away at Roma, one of the best results in the club’s history. They even managed a Premiership win (albeit a scrappy 1-0 win over Leyton Orient) before the final two group stage matches.

And the European form continued in style, Aberdeen being hammered 3-0 before the Bandits travelled to Greece to beat PAOK 3-1 and top the group with a perfect record. It was a marker of how far they’ve come in European competition in recent seasons.

A 2-1 win over Newcastle then hauled them back up towards mid table in the league, but as thoughts turned to a season recovery they were brought crashing down to earth with a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Sheff Wed. But they would not lose again until Boxing Day, and as the New Year approached they sat right in the middle of the league, needing a decent run to have any chance of qualifying for Europe again next season.

As January began, the FA Cup draw was cruel, sending them to Chelsea, and within six minutes, they were out, 3-0 down to a rampant performance at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea eventually ran out 4-0 winners, and the Bandits were down to just the league and Europe.

Their next six games produced no wins, but only one loss as a series of draws kept them in midtable. Ironically, the winless streak was ended with a 3-1 victory over Chelsea, Martin scoring another hattrick, the perfect pick me up before the UEFA Cup campaign resumed against Leverkusen.

Within ten minutes of the away leg, the Bandits were in big trouble, already two goals down in Germany, but they weathered the storm, and with thirteen minutes to play Americo scored a priceless away goal to give them hope for the home leg.

Injuries were hitting the squad at the wrong time, and with Corradini sent off after half an hour of the return leg, the European prospects of the Bandits looked bleak. But substitute youth player Jordan Gillespie, on minutes earlier as a substitute, and making his debut, scored for his home town club to send them through on away goals. The youngster, with a CA of just 113, would not start a match all season, but made his mark here.

The second knockout round was a tricky one, against Sparta Prague, but with the home leg first up this time, the Bandits took full advantage, Tom Finley this time scoring a hattrick in a comfortable 3-0 victory. But the Czech team came back in the second leg, going 2-0 up inside fifteen minutes, before Finley scored an away goal just after the hour mark, killing the tie.

In the Premiership, results were still mixed, and with the Bandits sitting ninth with seven games to go, it was looking increasingly like the European run would have to continue for another appearance to be possible next season.

So it was with great expectation that the quarter final was approached, with Fenerbahce the visitors in the first leg. The fans would once again go home delighted, four goals in the opening 45 minutes securing a routine 4-0 victory, and with the tie practically over before it had begun, the Bandits travelled to Turkey and pinched a 1-0 victory there too, setting up a semi final meeting with Roma, who they’d beaten in the group stages.

A win in the league was followed by one point from three games, almost guaranteeing that they would not be qualifying for Europe through the league. With Roma coming to town, confidence was still high though, and when Finley put the Bandits ahead early, dreams of the final were already shaping up. But Roma equalized late to put them in the driving seat in the tie before the return leg in Italy.

Hopes were still alive, however, especially given the Bandits had already travelled to Rome and won 2-0 earlier in the season. They would need a similar level of performance to pull this one off. But Roma raised their game when it mattered, deservedly winning the second leg 1-0 to move into the final, where they would beat Milan to lift the UEFA Cup.

The final three games of the season saw two draws and a final day win over Man City to keep the Bandits in ninth. But after such an excellent European season, it must come as a massive disappointment to know that they won’t be performing on the European stage next season.

So overall, with a poor league showing and two early cup defeats, it was a below par season, with only the European campaign rescuing any sort of respectability. Left Back 1 is already feeling the pressure of expectation, and his job is currently less than secure having received the dreaded vote of confidence after the season ended. It remains to be seen how much longer he will last, with an aging squad desperately needing an overhaul.

Honours: League Cup (2044, 2047)

[kipfizh]

Bandits report – Season summary

2006-07, English Conference South - 1st, FA Trophy - Winners

2007-08, English National Conference - 7th, FA Trophy - Final

2008-09, English National Conference – 7th

2009-10, English National Conference – 9th

2010-11, English National Conference – 6th

2011-12, English National Conference – 18th

2012-13, English National Conference – 5th

2013-14, English National Conference – 1st

2014-15, English League Two – 21st

2015-16, English League Two – 21st

2016-17, English League Two – 6th

2017-18, English League Two – 6th

2018-19, English League Two – 7th

2019-20, English League Two – 6th, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy – South Semi Final

2020-21, English League Two – 10th

2021-22, English League Two – 1st, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy - Final

2022-23, English League One – 13th, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy – South Semi Final

2023-24, English League One – 11th, League Cup – Final

2024-25, English League One – 11th, League Cup – Semi-Final

2025-26, English League One – 18th

2026-27, English League One – 17th

2027-28, English League One – 14th

2028-29, English League One – 20th

2029-30, English League One – 1st

2030-31, English Championship – 14th

2031-32, English Championship – 10th, League Cup – Final

2032-33, English Championship – 12th

2033-34, English Championship – 8th

2034-35, English Championship – 21st

2035-36, English Championship – 2nd

2036-37, English Premiership – 17th

2037-38, English Premiership – 12th

2038-39, English Premiership – 15th, FA Cup – Semi-Final

2039-40, English Premiership – 11th

2040-41, English Premiership – 14th

2041-42, English Premiership – 13th

2042-43, English Premiership – 11th

2043-44, English Premiership – 6th, League Cup – Winners

2044-45

English Premiership: (Pos 9), P 38, W 14, D 10, L 14, F 60, A 53, GD +7, Pts 52

(Media Prediction: 8th)

UEFA Cup: 1st Knockout Round

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: 3rd Round

2045-46

English Premiership: (Pos 3), P 38, W 18, D 9, L 11, F 55, A 46, GD +9, Pts 63

(Media Prediction: 9th)

Intertoto Cup: Qualified for UEFA Cup

UEFA Cup: Group Stage

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: 4th Round

2046-47

English Premiership: (Pos 2), P 38, W 19, D 13, L 6, F 63, A 40, GD +23, Pts 70

(Media Prediction: 5th)

Champions League: Group Stage

FA Cup: 4th Round

League Cup: Winners

2047-48

English Premiership: (Pos 5), P 38, W 17, D 9, L 12, F 52, A 52, GD 0, Pts 60

(Media Prediction: 3rd)

Champions League: 1st Knockout Round

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: Final

2048-49

English Premiership: (Pos 9), P 38, W 13, D 15, L 10, F 50, A 49, GD +1, Pts 54

(Media Prediction: 5th)

League

UEFA Cup: Semi Final

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: 3rd Round