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AI Experiment - what would happen if?


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This thread has been a real eye opener to just how detailed and advanced the AI system is, and like most readers on here I am hooked! Kip your dedication to the cause is admirable - leading all us other Bandit fans icon_razz.gif

I do have an observation though, regarding the players who have become staff. We seem to see them moving clubs quite alot - for example Goalkeeper 1 who has been at 3 clubs in 3 years, which is in sharp contrast to their playing days where the loyalty attribute kicked in. Does this mean that none of those attributes (particularly the mental ones we would expect to stay constant) do not carry through when players become staff? If so that seems a bit odd. We see that the attribute for ambition seems to have held lots of them back from going into the non-playing side of things, so why does the loyalty attribute not keep them with the same club for at least a little bit longer? Looking back at Goalkeeper 1, he's moved quite a bit, but not always for a better job (Sunderland to Liverpool, but for both clubs as a scout even though his main strength is as an ass man) before hitting West Ham as Ass man. This does seem to be a good move for him with the Hammers being up and around at the end of the season. It will be interesting to see if he will continue the trend of moving after one season, or if he will recognise this as a 'dream job' and stay put.

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Guest arrogantio
But the original database, I am led to believe, has a lot more high-end staff, so what would you rather see?

The original database being labelled as correct, and the Fred system targeted at maintaining the same balance as at the start?

Or

The Fred system being approved as balanced, and the original database adjusted to match the long term balance generated by it?

Or neither?

The evidence you've posted suggests the original system is better: it's a little absurd to have so few managers with high abilities in the Premiership. It's also a little suprising how many ex-Bandit managers have gone on to get jobs at much better clubs.

Having said that, I'm still sceptical about the strength of the link between manager CA and team performance, since manager CA takes into account training attributes which have relatively little impact upon results and doesn't have any direct relationship with the preferred playing styles, which will have a very big impact upon results.

guess I could do an AI experiment if I had the time...

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can somebody fix the link in GQ?

the link still works, just click the heading rather than the page number, as there are less pages here, due to there being more posts per page in this forum

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I've only started following this (because I was bored to death at work icon_wink.gif ) and I must admit, I'm hooked.

I'm still at page 6 though, so have quite a bit of catching up to do. But at least I have something to kill time now. icon_biggrin.gif

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Awesome stuff. I've spent 2 whole working days reading through the entire 16 pages. Absolutely riveting, and far better than some stories in FM Stories. icon_biggrin.gif

Keep it going. It was fantastic reading how the Bandits rose through the ranks over 30+ seasons to the top flight.

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Originally posted by kipfizh:

Next update will come soon, bit slow this week as I'm actually on a well-earned holiday icon_smile.gif

I thought it was a holiday game, haven't you been on vacation for over 30 years already? Gggrrr I hate lazy people icon_wink.gif

Enjoy your very-well deserved vacation Kipfizh, hope you got to go somewhere fun. icon14.gif

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ok im a little worried about the AI manager now lol im using a basic 442 and have played the first 3 games of the season and these are the results

H 18-0

A 8-0

H 21-0

Should make for an interesting season and thanks again for rekindling my love for the game !!!

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@richieh: Kip has done exactly the thing you are doing right now for some people asked and as I remembered Bandits scored around 230 goals in just 17 matches or so with conceding only 2 or so. All I mean is that with a human manager Bandits are the uber power of the world football with that squad. The only challenge is to hold the young starlets in the team but after that it's just a kids play to go and beat conference teams. I'm not critisizing what you are doing or not saying that there is no need n stuff like that. That's just FYI that Kip has already ran a small experiment like what you are doing atm. GL in keeping the starlets in the squad.

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This thread is brilliant....

Are there any similarly interesting threads that people are aware of - would love to read them but don`t have time to trawl through 3000 pages on the boards !!!

Keep up the good work - look forward to some new experiements too !!

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Originally posted by PaulB75:

This thread is brilliant....

Are there any similarly interesting threads that people are aware of - would love to read them but don`t have time to trawl through 3000 pages on the boards !!!

Keep up the good work - look forward to some new experiements too !!

I found this one to be very interesting and a good read:

Ass man experiment

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I`m a bit behind on this thread (still on page 3, so please bear with me!)

So far there are a lot of comments about the financial/reputation aspect, and why the players only join huge clubs.

A couple of points - I don`t think its true league clubs don`t scout the conference (ie Peterboro and their new signing, Michael Knightly or something from Grays to Wolves).

Also, another point is the stange choices for World Players of the Year etc.

I note in season 10/11, the Milan defender wins it, despite having an average rating of just 7.25, and winning only 1 MOM for his club all season... surely that can`t be right !!

Anyway, just my thoughts..

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Originally posted by PaulB75:

This thread is brilliant....

Are there any similarly interesting threads that people are aware of - would love to read them but don`t have time to trawl through 3000 pages on the boards !!!

Keep up the good work - look forward to some new experiements too !!

If you look on the Challenges/Sign Up/Holiday challenges board you will see that there are at least another 2 similar AI experiments that have just started in the last month -

AI Experiment SIFC

AI Experiment - The Enchants

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Originally posted by PaulB75:

Also, another point is the stange choices for World Players of the Year etc.

I note in season 10/11, the Milan defender wins it, despite having an average rating of just 7.25, and winning only 1 MOM for his club all season... surely that can`t be right !!

Anyway, just my thoughts..

One thing to bear in mind in that World Player of the Year is based upon the calendar year, so while I tell you who won it in May, the bulk of the candidate time for the award is actually in the previous season.

So if you check how he did the previous year, you'll probably find he had a good season.

But yeah, the choices are sometimes odd!

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Originally posted by Meitheisman:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by kipfizh:

Next update will come soon, bit slow this week as I'm actually on a well-earned holiday icon_smile.gif

I thought it was a holiday game, haven't you been on vacation for over 30 years already? Gggrrr I hate lazy people icon_wink.gif

Enjoy your very-well deserved vacation Kipfizh, hope you got to go somewhere fun. icon14.gif </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hehe, it wasn't a holiday anywhere, more of a holiday to do DIY on the house! Update follows...

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Season 2037-38

Club report

2006-07, English Conference South - 1st, FA Trophy - Winners

2007-08, English National Conference - 7th, FA Trophy - Final

2008-09, English National Conference – 7th

2009-10, English National Conference – 9th

2010-11, English National Conference – 6th

2011-12, English National Conference – 18th

2012-13, English National Conference – 5th

2013-14, English National Conference – 1st

2014-15, English League Two – 21st

2015-16, English League Two – 21st

2016-17, English League Two – 6th

2017-18, English League Two – 6th

2018-19, English League Two – 7th

2019-20, English League Two – 6th, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy – South Semi Final

2020-21, English League Two – 10th

2021-22, English League Two – 1st, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy - Final

2022-23, English League One – 13th, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy – South Semi Final

2023-24, English League One – 11th, League Cup – Final

2024-25, English League One – 11th, League Cup – Semi-Final

2025-26, English League One – 18th

2026-27, English League One – 17th

2027-28, English League One – 14th

2028-29, English League One – 20th

2029-30, English League One – 1st

2030-31, English Championship – 14th

2031-32, English Championship – 10th, League Cup – Final

2032-33, English Championship – 12th

2033-34

English Championship: (Pos 8), P 46, W 20, D 8, L 18, F 69, A 57, GD +12, Pts 68

(Media Prediction: 13th)

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: 3rd Round

2034-35

English Championship: (Pos 21), P 46, W 13, D 13, L 20, F 53, A 67, GD -14, Pts 52

(Media Prediction: 10th)

FA Cup: 4th Round

League Cup: 3rd Round

2035-36

English Championship: (Pos 2), P 46, W 21, D 11, L 14, F 64, A 49, GD +15, Pts 74

(Media Prediction: 21st)

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: Quarter-Final

2036-37

English Premiership: (Pos 17), P 38, W 12, D 4, L 22, F 42, A 72, GD -30, Pts 40

(Media Prediction: 20th)

FA Cup: 3rd Round

League Cup: 3rd Round

2037-38

English Premiership: (Pos 12), P 38, W 11, D 15, L 12, F 56, A 63, GD -7, Pts 48

(Media Prediction: 20th)

League

FA Cup: Quarter-Final

League Cup: 2nd Round

After their narrow escape the previous season, the Bandits were expected to go another summer spending spree, but it was not as spectacular as before, as they bought five players for a combined sum of around 12m.

Having started the season brightly, they once again found themselves tumbling down the league and struggling near the bottom, and by the midway point in the season they had dropped into the relegation zone. In fact, things were looking bleak as the gap between 17th and 18th was considerable.

Having dropped around eight points adrift by the time the transfer window reopened in January, Phil Edwards decided he needed to bolster his squad, splashing out another 17m in a desperate attempt to help his team survive.

One of those signings, Paul Spicer, turned out to be a masterstroke as the 22 year old striker scored the goals that pushed them closer and closer to safety. Finally, with five games remaining, they surged out of the relegation zone, and never looked back, ending the season on a nine match unbeaten run to finish a deceptive 12th.

To give you an idea of how late their recovery was, here are their positions for the season:

Position Graph

But it was enough. Incidentally, the number of points they gained in their survival last season wouldn’t have been enough this time around – Coventry went down with 42 points.

In the cups, Aston Villa got their revenge for last season’s last day demotion, knocking the Bandits out of the League Cup early, but they did manage to reach the quarter-finals of the FA Cup before being dumped out by eventual finalists West Brom.

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Player reports

Goalkeeper 1 – Retired from playing 03/07/2032

2032-, Sunderland (scout), CA 170, PA 170

2033-2034, Liverpool (scout), CA 170, PA 170

2034-, West Ham (assistant manager), CA 170, PA 170

Remains West Ham assistant manager, as they have another excellent season, coming second in the league.

Goalkeeper 2 – Retired from playing 27/06/2032

2032-, Tottenham (scout), CA 170, PA 170

2033-2034, Birmingham (assistant manager), CA 170, PA 170

2034-, Leeds (assistant manager), CA 170, PA 170

Appears to have no desire to leave his beloved Leeds, where he remains assistant manager as they finish sixth.

Left Back 1 – Retired from playing 30/06/2030

2030-2031, Scunthorpe (fitness coach), CA 110, PA 110

2031-2034, Tottenham (assistant manager), CA 110, PA 110

2034-2035, Tottenham (coach), CA 110, PA 110

2035-, Tottenham (assistant manager), CA 108, PA 110

CA drops slightly as he remains the assistant manager at Tottenham, who finish a distant 15th after a poor season.

Right Mid 1 – Retired from playing 25/04/2026

2026-2027, Aston Villa (youth coach), CA 130, PA 130

2027-2035, Chelsea (assistant manager), CA 130, PA 130

2035-2037, Chelsea (manager), CA 130, PA 130

2037-, Roma (manager), CA 130, PA 130

Does not have a great season in charge of Roma, as they get knocked out of the UEFA Cup at the hands of Portsmouth.

Centre Mid 1 – Retired from playing 02/07/2030

2030-2032, Liverpool (youth coach), CA 110, PA 110

2032-, Reading (coach), CA 110, PA 110

Still content to be a coach at Reading, who this season do not challenge for the league, finishing eighth.

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Other stats

England, yet again, qualified for the World Cup with a perfect record of ten wins out of ten, and no goals conceded. They are simply unstoppable in qualifiers. They will face Turkey, Uruguay and USA in one of the easiest World Cup groups they could’ve imagined.

Sunderland were the surprise champions in the Premiership, leading the way for most of the season and winning it comfortably in the end. The big guns of West Ham, Chelsea, Arsenal and the recovering Liverpool filled out the rest of the top five to give the league a more familiar look.

In the Championship, even with a top manager, Man Utd couldn’t reach the playoffs, finishing ninth to guarantee and fourth consecutive season out of the top flight. With Jeff Forsyth, one of the best managers around, under pressure, he’ll have to start extremely well next season, if he is even allowed that long.

Newcastle beat West Brom to lift the FA Cup, the highlight of which was League One Nottm Forest’s run to the quarter finals. Chelsea squeaked out Scunthorpe on penalties in the League Cup final, after League Two Gillingham had knocked out three Premiership sides on their way to the quarter finals, including eventual Premiership champions Sunderland. Rotherham continued their appalling record in the competition, taking their losing streak to twelve, meaning they haven’t been beyond the first round in over a decade. They are practically a bye.

In Europe, Barcelona retained the Champions League, beating arch rivals Real Madrid in the final, in a Spanish dominated competition, after Valencia made it three teams in the semis. Anatoly Smirnov, the Shakhtar striker, was rather generously given the honour of breaking the average rating record, scoring a ten in his only game.

Barcelona became European Champions, beating Inter in the final, while Arsenal didn’t extend their unbeaten run past the 37 game mark they set last season – they lost their opening group match.

Man City prevented Spain from dominating the European scene entirely, beating Mallorca in the UEFA Cup final, but the Spaniards had a consolation, with the midfielder Monteiro claiming a record number of assists, with nine.

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English Teams and Managers

Premiership

1. Sunderland (+5), Lee Bailey (56, 117/120)

2. West Ham (+2), Paul Robinson (48, 120/120)

3. Chelsea (-2), John Terry (57, 166/170)

4. Arsenal (-1), Chris Casper (63, 119/149)

5. Liverpool (+5), Turgay Tufan (43, 156/156)

6. Leeds (+6), Peter Flynn (63, 94/118)

7. Scunthorpe (+6), Steve Lescott (64, 93/120) (new manager)

8. Reading (-6), Paul Moore (55, 120/120) (new manager)

9. Man City (-4), Ian Taylor (64, 86/107)

10. QPR (+1), Andy Mason (62, 90/120)

11. Newcastle (+4), Victor Garba (59, 171/195) (new manager)

12. Bandits (+5), Phil Edwards (61, 94/120)

13. Portsmouth (-5), Michael Bates (61, 91/106)

14. West Brom (-5), no manager

15. Tottenham (-1), Tore Reginiussen (52, 130/130) (new manager)

16. Chesterfield (P), Trevor Thurston (64, 100/120)

17. Derby (-10), Steve Brackstone (63, 89/120) (new manager)

18. Coventry (-2), Chris Swailes (64, 84/120)

19. Bradford (P), Nicky Grant (56, 118/120)

20. Birmingham (P), Ian Goodison (65, 107/130)

Not such a merry go round for managers this season, with only five changes, but there are some interesting things to examine in there.

Lee Bailey certainly had a fine season, leading Sunderland to the title, but his ability suggests that they may not stay there. Meanwhile, Liverpool are coming right back into contention – relegation candidates when Tufan took over, he has revitalized them back into the top five.

Adrian Whitbread used to be Reading’s manager, but he has now retired, and the replacement, Paul Moore, could not live up to his predecessor’s achievements. Ian Taylor, a place below, needs to retire before he takes Man City further backwards.

But take a look at Newcastle. Having sacked Steve Brackstone, they hired the superb talent of Nigerian Victor Garba, now the best manager in the Premiership with a whopping 171 CA. Expect much improved things of Newcastle next season, although Garba has already won them the FA Cup.

No surprise to see Steve Brackstone flirting with relegation again – Derby were excellent last season, but he’s in danger of sinking the ship.

Promoted from Championship

1. Sheff Wed ®, Niko Krancjar (53, 122/130)

2. Notts County (+4), Doug Dunn (65, 74/105)

3. Stoke ®, Stuart Davies (54, 102/113)

How Dunn got County promoted I‘ve no idea, but at 65 he’ll probably retire in the summer – they need a talented new manager now. Krancjar (yes, him!) seems decent enough at Sheff Wed.

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Summary

For much of the season it looked like the Bandits were doomed, but after their January spending spree there was hope again. Once Paul Spicer started to rattle in the goals it seemed only a matter of time until they escaped the relegation zone, but they left it late, finishing the season in outstanding form to finish twelfth.

The manager is still a worry, he is covering his weaknesses by spending big, and while this is exactly what he should be doing, just imagine how quickly the Bandits could move forward with a more talented manager at the helm. A top man with a large warchest could turn this club into a real force. But with Edwards still a few years from retirement, he is only likely to leave by being sacked, and with expectations so low, that would mean the Bandits would be in huge trouble before the new man even came in.

But this season was a big improvement, shown best by their goal difference, which last season was -30, and this season only -7. They are coming to terms with the league.

Sunderland surprised everyone by claiming the Premiership, but like Reading before them, there is nothing to suggest that they can sustain this – can they prove everyone wrong and retain it? After all, their victory was a comfortable one.

Man Utd, even with a decent manager, didn’t even make the playoffs, and Jeff Forsyth is now in danger of losing his job. Given that they’d only be able to hire a worse manager, will they ever make it back to the Premiership?

There were no changes in the jobs of the ex-Bandits, whose ambition is seemingly limiting their managerial prospects.

Newcastle now have a stunningly good manager – how long will it take for him to take them back to the top were they were about a decade ago?

Bandit’s former manager watch

Justin Edinburgh has retired.

Newcastle sacked Steve Brackstone when they were 19th in the Premiership, and then hired the superb Garba and rose back up to 11th. Brackstone was hired by Derby, then 15th in the Premiership, and he proceeded to nearly take them down instead, finishing 17th.

Gary Perry is out of work, and at 65 is likely to retire.

Dean Glover has retired.

Martin Lawton retired last summer.

Danny Gamble was sacked by Stoke, as they lay fifth in the Championship. They ended up rising to third and winning the playoffs to return to the Premiership. He has been out of work since.

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Bandits squad

General

Stats

Finance Overview

Interested Players

The Bandits’ transfer budget of over 250m is utterly frightening, and a seemingly bottomless pit, as they have not been losing money even with all the spending over the last few years.

Meanwhile, the number of players interested in joining continues to rise, hitting a new high of 8655, eclipsing last season’s 8462.

Top 20 in Squad (sorted by CA)

Name, Pos, Age, CA-PA

Wade, GK, 26, 159-164 (+1)

Horton, MC, 26, 158-159 (+2)

Grosjean, MC, 26, 158-158 – new signing

Nunez, DC, 26, 158-158 – new signing

Read, DR, DM, M RC, 26, 157-170 – new signing, on loan from Man City

Ellis, AM/F C, 27, 157-157 (0)

Leroy, AM L, 27, 156-156 (0)

Sabin, D/AM R, 25, 154-158 (+2)

Dyke, DC, 27, 154-156 (-1)

Holmes, D LC, 26, 154-155 (0)

Avery, MC, 27, 154-154 (+3)

Morgan, DC, 25, 153-173 – new signing

Spicer, ST, 22, 150-156 – new signing

M Nicholson, DC, 27, 148-153 (0)

R O’Neill, ST, 28, 148-148 (0)

Harris, DM, 27, 147-157 (-3)

Hutton, ST, 28, 146-148 (-2)

Frank, AM RL, 27, 142-157 – new signing, on loan from Seville

T O’Neill, GK, 20, 140-157 – new signing

Dudley, AM/F C, 21, 139-157 (+7)

Players in last season’s top 20 who have left the club:

Baresi, D RC, 27, 155-168

Leather, AM C, 20, 140-156

Casey, DR, 24, 136-136

Murray, AM C, 21, 132-156

Players in last season’s top 20 who have dropped out of the top 20:

Banks, GK, 22, 138-146 (+7)

Hruska, D RL, 30, 135-135 (0)

Hristov, AM L, 32, 124-157 (-7)

The gain in squad strength is best displayed by Dave Banks, the Bandits’ young keeper. Last season, he sneaked into the top 20 with a CA of 131, but this time around, even rising to 138, he drops out.

At the top level, Wade is still the best player in the squad, and is inching towards being the club’s first 160 CA player, while Morgan, lower down, has the potential too, having been signed for 8m. The squad has been massively filled out between CAs of 140 and 160, but strangely two of the signings are loan deals – Read and Frank both only temporarily helping the Bandits. For a club in the Premiership with a large transfer kitty, signing players on loan seems an odd decision.

There are also a couple of unhappy players. Karl Dudley, the young striker, now feels there is too much competition for a place up front, and with four strikers ahead of him on CA alone, he may have a point. Craig Hutton, one of those four, is also unhappy because he dislikes youth prospect Paul Gallagher, but the youngster is never likely to feature and should be moved on. David Sabin wants to move to a bigger club.

The players that have left were unlikely to become starts – Leather was very useful, but Baresi didn’t look like reaching his potential, and the others were a little too low in CA.

Can Phil Edwards push them forward – he seems to be packing the squad without bringing in any stars – surely now is the time?

CA of X or above:

190 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

180 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

170 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

160 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

150 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 10, 13

140 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 6, 10, 9, 9, 14, 19

130 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 8, 10, 13, 10, 11, 22, 28

120 : 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 6, 6, 7, 5, 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 16, 15, 29, 37

110 : 0, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 7, 6, 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 9, 10, 10, 12, 12, 13, 13, 16, 23, 25, 23, 24, 21, 22, 39, 42

100 : 2, 4, 7, 7, 6, 13, 13, 12, 13, 13, 16, 12, 12, 12, 16, 16, 19, 21, 20, 18, 24, 31, 32, 28, 30, 29, 27, 43, 45

90 : 7, 11, 10, 9, 10, 16, 17, 15, 15, 20, 22, 16, 15, 17, 20, 22, 29, 33, 26, 24, 29, 32, 36, 31, 33, 31, 28, 46, 51

80 : 13, 14, 13, 13, 16, 21, 21, 18, 16, 21, 26, 20, 22, 21, 26, 26, 34, 36, 32, 31, 33, 40, 40, 33, 34, 33, 30, 50, 53

70 : 19, 22, 21, 20, 22, 27, 25, 19, 23, 25, 30, 23, 25, 27, 28, 30, 35, 39, 38, 35, 37, 42, 43, 36, 37, 36, 33, 55, 57

60 : 26, 26, 25, 23, 24, 32, 30, 24, 26, 30, 32, 26, 28, 28, 38, 33, 40, 44, 41, 37, 40, 45, 45, 38, 43, 37, 38, 60, 60

50 : 30, 31, 31, 26, 26, 35, 33, 28, 32, 34, 35, 30, 32, 34, 42, 37, 43, 46, 43, 42, 44, 49, 49, 45, 47, 43, 42, 62, 61

Once again, the numbers at the top make for good reading, there are now 13 players with CA of 150+ - just three years ago, there were only three. With 28 players above 130, most players below that can be ditched, but even with such a huge squad, Edwards seems reluctant to clear out the deadwood.

There are two prospects in the depths though – Peter Challinor, a 19 year old defensive midfielder (118/164), and the forward Paul Dove, just 17 (114/171).

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Best and Worst

New records:

Highest League Position: 12th in Premiership (previous: 17th in Premiership)

Highest Transfer Fee Paid: 8m for Charlie Morgan (previous: 6.75m for David Sabin)

Total Transfer Spending: 34.5m (previous: 28.5m)

This season:

Best player – Ellis, 7.38

Top scorer – Ellis, 21

Worst player – Read, 6.26

The Bandits remained third in the rich list, and Man Utd continued their plummet, now valued at least than 100m, and miles behind even their city rivals.

Rich Clubs

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