x42bn6 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 With so many people playing FM and so many seasons running, you have ended up with a very extreme scenario like winning the lottery, which has odds of about 14,000,000 to 1 but people don't stop buying tickets...People buy lottery tickets because the utility of money is not linear (in the same way that a trillionaire would not be a thousand times happier than a billionaire, but someone with £1000 could well be a thousand times happier than someone with £1).Even freak scenarios can be statistically significant and therefore should be investigated as bugs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Has this actually been posted in the bugs forum? That would be a good place to start. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
milnerpoint Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 The number if deliberately exaggerated for a reason.It is extremely unlikely that Bolton would have won the Premier League this season with 102 points, just as it is extremely unlikely that a team will score 1000+ goals. My argument is that if you do not consider this a bug, then you may as well close every single bug thread related to "balance", because it is entirely possible that such a scenario might happen. I think extremely unlikely scenarios like Bolton winning the league in the first season with 102 points should be considered bugs and investigated. No its impossible to score 1000 league goals a season unless you take over every AI team and make sure they play every game against you with no keep, EVEN then you will not get close. Bolton winning the league in the 1st season is unlikely, but possible both with the AI and human controlling them. Your argument is the same as always, you take things to extremes to back up your point, no one is saying close the bugs forum or anything like that, stop sensationalising to get your point across. It is possible but the chances will be extrememly low, the fact no one else, out of the millions of saves that will have been played, has reported this says to me there is no issue, if every one noticed Bolton or Wolves constantly winning the league in the first year fair enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriss Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Even freak scenarios can be statistically significant and therefore should be investigated as bugs. If the OP reports it as a bug and uploads the relevant save game it probably will be investigated, I'm inclined to think that a single bug won't be the cause but more likely the variables that each game loads when created. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ackter Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 No its impossible to score 1000 league goals a season unless you take over every AI team and make sure they play every game against you with no keep, EVEN then you will not get close. Bolton winning the league in the 1st season is unlikely, but possible both with the AI and human controlling them. Your argument is the same as always, you take things to extremes to back up your point, no one is saying close the bugs forum or anything like that, stop sensationalising to get your point across. It is possible but the chances will be extrememly low, the fact no one else, out of the millions of saves that will have been played, has reported this says to me there is no issue, if every one noticed Bolton or Wolves constantly winning the league in the first year fair enough. It would be possible to do it by taking over the AI teams yourselves. You'd only need on average 27 goals a game to pull it off. Would hate to be the person with enough time and inclination on their hands to actually do it though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
milnerpoint Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 It would be possible to do it by taking over the AI teams yourselves. You'd only need on average 27 goals a game to pull it off. Would hate to be the person with enough time and inclination on their hands to actually do it though. Haha i love how you say "you'd only need on average 27 goals a game" Not aiming high or anything there!! hahahaha Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBKalle Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Jeering at the OP and throwing at him examples from many years ago isn't the right way to approach the issue IMO. We all know FM is a game and we all enjoy the unrealistic part of leading Bumfluff United to Champions League glory, or of reaching the WC semifinals with Wales... The point is human players can overachieve in spite of realism because we have the "unfair advantage" of reasoning, while AI just follows a set of instructions, as advanced as they can be, but still preset and rigid. So you or me winning the EPL in our first season with Bolton would still be unrealistic and definitely a sign of the game being too easy, but it would be 50% the game's fault, 30% ability and 20% luck. On the other hand AI-managed Bolton should NEVER win the EPL in the first season, wth a 33-3-2 records too!!! Come on, it would take an unholy amount of stange events to have Bolton landing a CL spot, how can you honestly fail to see such a season (I assume with the original database) is an anomaly of immane proportions. It's either a bug or the OP has been unlucky enough to stumble upon the 1 out of 10000000000000000000 seasons where half of the EPL clubs are ravaged by injuries. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
x42bn6 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 No its impossible to score 1000 league goals a season unless you take over every AI team and make sure they play every game against you with no keep, EVEN then you will not get close. Like I said, the number is deliberately exaggerated for a reason. It's not the number that matters, but the reasoning. Imagine if a team scored 200 goals or something instead. Definitely plausible. Your argument is the same as always, you take things to extremes to back up your point, no one is saying close the bugs forum or anything like that, stop sensationalising to get your point across. It's logically deduced by your idea that plausible scenarios aren't bugs, or the various other people mentioning that "this makes the game special". If these are to be ignored, you may as well ignore theoretical scenarios like "there are too many fouls". It is possible but the chances will be extrememly low, the fact no one else, out of the millions of saves that will have been played, has reported this says to me there is no issue, if every one noticed Bolton or Wolves constantly winning the league in the first year fair enough.Sometimes, P(X=1) can be statistically significant - i.e. it happening once can be an issue. For example, if Accrington Stanley beat Manchester United 30-0 in the first season, that should be considered a bug even if it only happens once in the entire population, because it seems like something has gone terribly wrong in the match engine. You don't ask: "Has anyone else experienced an issue with Accrington Stanley vs. Manchester United?" You'd dive straight into the issue. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tissier's Nose Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 we all enjoy the unrealistic part of leading Bumfluff United to Champions League glory I actually 'lolled' Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenco Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Perhaps instead of a bug, SI should investigate a potential match-fixing scandal involving the entire EPL in the OP's game? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liamgannon Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 They just did the other day No need to cry over Bolton winning the league. You should post up their Champions League successes if they have any. I've had Real Zaragoza winning La Liga twice in a row on FM08 in seasons 2 and 3 IIRC. i'm hardly crying, regardless of what anyone thinks, by stating its just a game doesn't ignore the fact that it would never happen in real life. For instance, playing gran torino, if the AI had completed a lap on the Nurenburg circuit in 15 seconds would you not say, that impossibel! but according to peoples logic on here, its a game so anything can happen. why do people feel the need to stick up for everything that si has done, yes its a good game, but unless we challenge what we think is incorrect, the games never going to improve. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenco Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I think most people are in agreement that Bolton winning the league is not impossible, but it is improbable. There is a difference. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liamgannon Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 Jeering at the OP and throwing at him examples from many years ago isn't the right way to approach the issue IMO. We all know FM is a game and we all enjoy the unrealistic part of leading Bumfluff United to Champions League glory, or of reaching the WC semifinals with Wales... The point is human players can overachieve in spite of realism because we have the "unfair advantage" of reasoning, while AI just follows a set of instructions, as advanced as they can be, but still preset and rigid. So you or me winning the EPL in our first season with Bolton would still be unrealistic and definitely a sign of the game being too easy, but it would be 50% the game's fault, 30% ability and 20% luck. On the other hand AI-managed Bolton should NEVER win the EPL in the first season, wth a 33-3-2 records too!!! Come on, it would take an unholy amount of stange events to have Bolton landing a CL spot, how can you honestly fail to see such a season (I assume with the original database) is an anomaly of immane proportions. It's either a bug or the OP has been unlucky enough to stumble upon the 1 out of 10000000000000000000 seasons where half of the EPL clubs are ravaged by injuries. finally, someone with some decent reasoning ability, well said that man Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
x42bn6 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I think most people are in agreement that Bolton winning the league is not impossible, but it is improbable. There is a difference.Most importantly, "improbable" can be a bug.In fact, every single balance bug is an "improbable" bug. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I don't particularly pay attention to how other teams or leagues are doing. As long as I'm winning. I'm managing in Spain at the moment and I haven't the foggiest who's winning in Italy, England, Germany, France, etc. If I saw a team like Bolton won the Prem I'd just laugh. Look at Newcastle, they are overperforming this year, given the right run of games they could easily be mounting a title challenge this season. Things just didn't go their way. Bolton winning the league is a surprise. But that's all. It's way too funny. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liamgannon Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 all this post highlights is that most people on here who have contributed saying it is possible, know diddly squat about football and are more familiar with analysing data in the numeric range of 1 to 20. to those that think it is possible, put your money where your mouth is. Why don't you bet on the team that finishes 17th to win the league the next season. I mean if it is possible you could bet 50 years running and if it comes off, you'll more than break even. Thing is, none of you will do it because you know it isn't possible. For a team that finished 17th to even get champions league football would be pushing it. sorry guys, not one of you have convinced me, alan hansen has said you'll never win anything with kids and i say you'll never win the league with bolton, hansen was proved incorrect, i won't be proven wrong... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
milnerpoint Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Haha is that a challenge? Im sure a few of us could win the league with Bolton first season, infact i would bet on it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
snootyjim Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely. Shall we call it one-in-a-million? In other words, if this season was replayed 1,000 times, and then that was done another 999 times, that could happen. The Premiership has been running for one-fifty-thousandth of that time. There were 60,000 FM12 players online at today's peak according to Steam. If they've each played 5 seasons in total, with 10 leagues active, then that's 3,000,000 leagues played to resolution. If it's a 1 in a million shot, it could've happened three times. And that's ignoring everybody who didn't play on Steam today. You shouldn't be moaning, you should be revelling in your specialness Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenco Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 all this post highlights is that most people on here who have contributed saying it is possible, know diddly squat about football and are more familiar with analysing data in the numeric range of 1 to 20. to those that think it is possible, put your money where your mouth is. Why don't you bet on the team that finishes 17th to win the league the next season. I mean if it is possible you could bet 50 years running and if it comes off, you'll more than break even. Thing is, none of you will do it because you know it isn't possible. For a team that finished 17th to even get champions league football would be pushing it. sorry guys, not one of you have convinced me, alan hansen has said you'll never win anything with kids and i say you'll never win the league with bolton, hansen was proved incorrect, i won't be proven wrong... I'm not sure you've grasped the meaning of the word 'possible'. So did you quit your game and start over? I'm interested to know what impossible things happen in your next game, Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bebetu Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 IN my game liverpool is on 3th place after 30 games.This is a bug like someone said.Another bug is that torres scored 2 goals against me from 3 shots in 1 match. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott MUFC Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 keeping an eye on other leagues is a good idea though, you should do it, especially if a top club is underachieving, you can scoop a player or 2 for cheap Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBKalle Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 IN my game liverpool is on 3th place after 30 games.This is a bug like someone said.Another bug is that torres scored 2 goals against me from 3 shots in 1 match. Yeah because Liverpool being 3rd or Torres scoring twice is EXACTLY as unlikely as Bolton having a 100 points season.... in 2011-12 Gotta love when people are being dense on purpose Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb10billion Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Yes the mighty wanderers!!! Would be interesting to see who the main goalscorers were. Since we don't have any IRL. But whoevers going on about it being hardcoded so only the usual teams can win - don't be daft. What else do you want hardcoded? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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