Clifton14 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hi Guys.This is my second Notts Forest save and for the second time in the 3rd round of the FA Cup, I have been drawn against Manchester United at Old Trafford The draw is supposed to be random, but it isn't. What are the odds of being paired with the same team away from home??? I remember this happening alot in FM12 in the latter stages of the FA and Carling Cup. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herbert Fandel Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Whilst I am absolutely not saying that the draw isn't scripted, as I know nothing of coding of the game, I would like the point out that: It is possible to consider that statistically your chances of being drawn against man utd the second time were the exact same as they were the first time. The fact it happened the first time in no way affects the chances of it happening the second time. Happening twice in a row is extremely unlucky, but remember how many millions of draws are taken by FM players all the time without it happening. Statistically something like that would crop up sooner or later Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
daylight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Man I would love your bad luck. On my save I am getting quite far in the cups and would love an away day at Man Utd with my skint Div 1 Tonbridge side,what does that bring in 800k? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexNFFC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Sorry to be pedantic, but it's Nottingham Forest, not Notts. As a Forest fan, it really winds me up! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cougar2010 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If you are reloading the same draw you will get the same matches as the draw is done behind the scenes just after the last round is finished. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padders Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Look how many times I had drawn Northampton in the FA Cup and FA Trohpy Ever year for 4 years I got them in one of the cups. I also had another FA Trophy game which isn't showing on here after the last FA Cup game Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmFutbolManager Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hi Guys.This is my second Notts Forest save and for the second time in the 3rd round of the FA Cup, I have been drawn against Manchester United at Old Trafford The draw is supposed to be random, but it isn't. What are the odds of being paired with the same team away from home??? I remember this happening alot in FM12 in the latter stages of the FA and Carling Cup. Brighton have just drawn Newcastle, at home, again for the second time in a row in the FA Cup. It happens. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenco Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The draw is random. The odds of this happening are slim but not impossible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Tom Laskowski Posted December 13, 2012 SI Staff Share Posted December 13, 2012 I know some of the rounds are regionalised but the Leamington one looks extremely odd! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padders Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I know some of the rounds are regionalised but the Leamington one looks extremely odd! I will try get another screenshot of an updated version, but there is at least two more cups games to add to that Is it possible to get a head to head when you aren't in the same divison any longer? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Staff Tom Laskowski Posted December 13, 2012 SI Staff Share Posted December 13, 2012 Padders, I know this isn't the place to bring up bugs but any chance of leamington save (as they play in the Southern League, so are unplayable) uploaded to our FTP servers for me to look at. Preferably before a cup draw is made? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hluraven Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The draw is supposed to be random, but it isn't. What are the odds of being paired with the same team away from home??? My maths may not be perfect but I believe it is 15,876 to 1. You have 63 potential opponents and 50/50 chance of home/away. So 126 to 1 chance of getting Man U away. 126 to 1 twice in a row is 15,876 to 1. Given there are many millions of cup draws made by FM, it is definitely not proof of scripted draws. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padders Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yes of course, however I am a lot furher ahead in the game than that screeshot. I am currently 2033/34 season and that screenshot is 2029. I was in BSP then, I am now in League 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The draw is supposed to be random, but it isn't. What are the odds of being paired with the same team away from home??? 1953/1 ........to get them twice - away twice not sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris M Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 1955-56 FA Cup Third Round - Leeds United 1 Cardiff City 2 1956-57 FA Cup Third Round - Leeds United 1 Cardiff City 2 1957-58 FA Cup Third Round - Leeds United 1 Cardiff City 2 Real life is often unrealistic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryknow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 In my Rangers save, I went a whole season and a bit (start of game to second round 2nd season) getting home draws. Was so strange, every cup...league cup, Scottish cup and challenge cup I got a home game. It's all good now, and fairly random. Must have just been luck or the board were paying people. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott MUFC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i usualy end up facing teams in cups who i am facing in the next match. had West brom in COC FA and League. had Doncaster away in JPT and League each time consecutive matches Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herbert Fandel Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i usualy end up facing teams in cups who i am facing in the next match.had West brom in COC FA and League. had Doncaster away in JPT and League each time consecutive matches You mean sometimes right? Even if you don't think you do, you do. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott MUFC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 well it can't always happen, but when it can. it does Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardiovascular Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 In my Rangers save, I went a whole season and a bit (start of game to second round 2nd season) getting home draws. Was so strange, every cup...league cup, Scottish cup and challenge cup I got a home game. It's all good now, and fairly random. Must have just been luck or the board were paying people. Possibly explains the current Rangers situation? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayahr Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Real life cup 1st round fixtures of RW Essen in the German Cup 2012 Union Berlin (H) 2011 Union Berlin (H) 2010 Energie Cottbus (H) 2009 Energie Cottbus (H) 2008 Energie Cottbus (H) As lower league club they were always seeded for a home match against one of the 32 top clubs. The rest was just chance, for the Cottbus thing, after being drawn to them in 2008, 1 in 1024 to be exact. Being drawn against one team in the 3rd round twice in a row has a probability of 1 in 63. Not sensational really. Add the away bit and you are at 1 in 126. Still not worth a thread. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keep Them N'Guessen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The fans wont give you much of a chance if you call us Notts Forest! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAlywan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 i usualy end up facing teams in cups who i am facing in the next match.had West brom in COC FA and League. had Doncaster away in JPT and League each time consecutive matches Same thing happens to me. Since FM 2005. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
robzilla Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Sorry to be pedantic, but it's Nottingham Forest, not Notts. As a Forest fan, it really winds me up! I'm not even a fan and it winds me up too Notts is the abbreviation for Nottinghamshire, not Nottingham. That's why Notts County is correct, but Notts Forest in not. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonleague Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 In my save the following happened: Season 1 Carling Cup 1st Round: Bristol City 4 vs 1 Bristol Rovers Season 2 Carling CUp 1st Round: Bristol Rovers 2 vs 5 Bristol City Season 3 Carling Cup 1st Round: Bristol City promoted to the Premier League so we cannot face our peasant neighbours! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonleague Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm not even a fan and it winds me up too Notts is the abbreviation for Nottinghamshire, not Nottingham. That's why Notts County is correct, but Notts Forest in not. Can they both be referred too as N.Forest & N.County? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sthptngomad76 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I will, almost without fail, draw a team in the cup that I will play either in the game before or the match after the cup tie. Say I'm scheduled to play Chelsea on Mar 8 in the league. I will more often than not draw them in a cup tie scheduled for Mar 5 or Mar 10, meaning I play them twice in succession. Nearly every season. Odd. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Pacino Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 In my Rangers save, I went a whole season and a bit (start of game to second round 2nd season) getting home draws. Was so strange, every cup...league cup, Scottish cup and challenge cup I got a home game. I will, almost without fail, draw a team in the cup that I will play either in the game before or the match after the cup tie. Both these 'issues' (if you could call them that) happen to me an awful lot. I started a thread about it recently. It is strange. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenco Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I will, almost without fail, draw a team in the cup that I will play either in the game before or the match after the cup tie. Say I'm scheduled to play Chelsea on Mar 8 in the league. I will more often than not draw them in a cup tie scheduled for Mar 5 or Mar 10, meaning I play them twice in succession. Nearly every season. Odd. The chances of this are not as long as you might think, particularly around that time of season. If you consider that a cup game in early March will have a Premier League match either side of it and with 19 other teams in the league you have a 1 in 9.5 chance of playing a particular team in either of those league games. This is likely to be the QF of the FA Cup and there is a good chance that the likes of Chelsea will still be in the competition. They may also be in the ECC, with these dates falling quite close as well, you could easily draw them in the QF or SF of the ECC. Also you have the league cup final at the end of Feb, again this is likely to be a good PL team. I know the odds are pretty impossible to calculate but when you end up doing well in the cups and playing cup games virtually every midweek between 2 league games, the chances of this happening just once in a season are more likely than you would think. But I also think people often forget the amount of times this didn't happen to them. In my game I played 9 domestic cup matches last season, never 2 in a row so there were 18 league games either side. Not once did I play the same team twice in a row (except for back-to-back league games against Villa because of rearrangements). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonleague Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The chances of this are not as long as you might think, particularly around that time of season. If you consider that a cup game in early March will have a Premier League match either side of it and with 19 other teams in the league you have a 1 in 9.5 chance of playing a particular team in either of those league games. This is likely to be the QF of the FA Cup and there is a good chance that the likes of Chelsea will still be in the competition. Your calculations are way off there. yes it would be a 1 in 9.5 chance providing of course that the only teams left in the specified cup were ALL Prem sides. Since we do not know this then we cannot use 1 in 9.5 as our base. For example, if we were in the 1/4 finals of the FA Cup, more than likely 4-5 teams will be from the Prem including ourselves, so therefore we have ~40-50% chance of meeting another Prem side in this particular round. So all of a sudden our chances of this happening now becomes ~1 in 19. The chances of this scenario happening 2 seasons in a row would be 1 in 323 and for it to happen 3 seasons in a row those odds would be 1 in 6155 I would also like to point out that most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula, therefore they are not 'truly' random. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemeures Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 sounds like liverpool chelsea in the 2000's could swear we played them 12 times in one season, if not more! sure felt like 12... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Supposedly its random but it doesnt seem that way. I remember in one fm I nearly always got an away tie if I auto'd, So I started doing it one by one. If I clicked each one I would always be picked out of the hat in the bottom 2 games, nealy always last. I seemed to get more home games doing it that way, and I did seem to end up playing the exact same teams every year. Top clubs and rivals. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonleague Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Supposedly its random but it doesnt seem that way. I remember in one fm I nearly always got an away tie if I auto'd, So I started doing it one by one. If I clicked each one I would always be picked out of the hat in the bottom 2 games, nealy always last. I seemed to get more home games doing it that way, and I did seem to end up playing the exact same teams every year. Top clubs and rivals. Like I pointed out earlier, most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula, therefore they are not 'truly' random. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
robzilla Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Can they both be referred too as N.Forest & N.County? Could be Most people just say "Forest" and "Notts County" though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott MUFC Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 hah obviously cup draws are bugged, i'm Man United and drew Luton... real United draw prem clubs but random is random.... until you end up with the same team at the start of the legue 2 seasons in a row, and FM12 you got the same team OFTEN over seasons in cup matches, i think on my Blackpool save i played Arsenal like 6 times. in a season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiitastic Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 In my save the following happened:Season 1 Carling Cup 1st Round: Bristol City 4 vs 1 Bristol Rovers Season 2 Carling CUp 1st Round: Bristol Rovers 2 vs 5 Bristol City Season 3 Carling Cup 1st Round: Bristol City promoted to the Premier League so we cannot face our peasant neighbours! yes you can. What if Rovers win their 1st Round match ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lil ole me Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 yes you can. What if Rovers win their 1st Round match ? I think he means in the 1st round as he drew them twice before. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonleague Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think he means in the 1st round as he drew them twice before. This! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacZidane Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I will, almost without fail, draw a team in the cup that I will play either in the game before or the match after the cup tie. Say I'm scheduled to play Chelsea on Mar 8 in the league. I will more often than not draw them in a cup tie scheduled for Mar 5 or Mar 10, meaning I play them twice in succession. Nearly every season. Odd. That happens all the time IRL. It's quite uncanny. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cplpeters1900 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Last seasons FA Cup final was played on the same day as Liverpool and Chelsea were scheduled to play each other in the league... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigerhgrrrrrr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ...and dont get me started on Hartlepools! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCIAG Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 My maths may not be perfect but I believe it is 15,876 to 1. You have 63 potential opponents and 50/50 chance of home/away. So 126 to 1 chance of getting Man U away. 126 to 1 twice in a row is 15,876 to 1. Given there are many millions of cup draws made by FM, it is definitely not proof of scripted draws. Actually, it is 126-1. The chances of drawing Man United away twice (or any other specific club) is 15,876-1, but that wasn't the question, it was "what are the odds of drawing the same club in a second save as you did in the first save?". Which club you drew first time around is irrelevant, ignoring for whether they would get through earlier rounds, because there is still a chance of drawing them again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herbert Fandel Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Last seasons FA Cup final was played on the same day as Liverpool and Chelsea were scheduled to play each other in the league...Why is it every time someone makes a complaint about the game someone has to come in and counter their point with facts! Bloody facts... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott MUFC Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 hah my league cup draw... Chelsea.... after playing them at home the previous match oh and facts are it happens, but not so frequent Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padders Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Last seasons FA Cup final was played on the same day as Liverpool and Chelsea were scheduled to play each other in the league... That has happened two years running! When Man City beat us (Stoke) in the FA Cup final the year before (2010) we were scheduled to play them that day in the league as well. We then played them 4 days after the final and not surprisingly we got spanked. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Gurney Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Why is it every time someone makes a complaint about the game someone has to come in and counter their point with facts! Bloody facts... Lies, damn lies and statistics! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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