Evolving a possessive Sunderland 4141

[cregan]

I'm mostly a (very) long-time lurker, and no Cleon or Jambo, and this is going to be one of those posts that's as much for the poster's benefit, cementing their own thinking, as it is a look at tactics and a request for advice. The short, short version is that having started a game with Sunderland a couple of months ago, pre-January database patch, and got through a couple of seasons, I'm not sure on how to further develop the approach I'm using, and how to cover the weaknesses in it.

The history

To begin with, Sunderland have no money and a badly-imbalanced squad (no really good GK, only one LB, four CBs of whom one is permanently crocked (Brown), one prone to mistakes (O'Shea), and one just isn't very good (Coates), one out-and-out RB (Jones), an army of midfielders ranging from overpaid nothing-muches to really good players, and three strikers only two of whom are any good (sorry, Jozy)). There's very little cash, wages are on the high side, and even if you ship out some of your team you still need to make the most of what you've got, and I've always thought your system needs to fit your squad, not vice versa.

Since I'd used it before in FM15 and I like the flexibility it provides, 4-5-1 was an obvious starting point with that mix - assuming I could cover the fullback positions adequately. The team lacked outright pace (Buckley, with 16, was the fastest, and while he's turned out to be useful when brought in, his quality is middling at best) and height outside the centre backs, Vergini (either at CB or RB), and to a lesser extent, Wickham up front. But technical quality was decent, as was work rate. On that basis, a steady passing game, pressing the opposition in midfield (but not suicidally high) and then working openings tiki-taka style, as much as you can in Sunderland anyway, again looked a sensible choice.

That gave me a starting point of: 4-5-1, control, fluid (which I think helps pressing systems), shorter passing. I used an offside trap rather than a higher d-line since we're not too quick, and kept pressing instructions mild, bolstered in midfield/forward PIs only, not a blanket all-out TI.

With too many players paid too much for not enough quality, and needing cover (and better players if I could get them) I sold/loaned out some of the excess, and used the cash - and more importantly the spare wage budget since I was only getting 25% of incomings - to bolster the team with youngsters, as per board requirements. OK, one of them was Balanta (on whom most of the money went), and everyone does/did that, but when your existing options are Brown, O'Shea and Vergini, you need a good new CB.

Initially, my 4-5-1 had attacking CWBs, Ricky Alvarez as a central winger CM(A) flanked by a BWM(D) - Cattermole - and a DLP(S) - Rodwell - with two wide midfielders set to cut in and the lone striker up ahead, giving us a sort of 2-2-4-2 shape in attack, in theory at least, with enough cover against quick transitions and a reasonably solid defensive shape aided by the 'play narrower' instruction that kept our wide mids inside.

We struggled at first, partly due to team cohesion and the dreadful tactical familiarity you start with at save launch. After an initial couple of good games Alvarez was woeful as a central winger despite having the attributes for it (aside from blinding pace), Cattermole struggled to have any influence at all, and we were too often exposed by teams playing with attacking mids slotting between our lines. And we weren't scoring; Fletcher (moaning about being dropped and sold in January) and Wickham (rather more regretfully cleared out in the first summer; he could've been good) notched one goal in 40 appearances combined, even after swapping AF for CF(S) to have them more involved, although the two youngsters signed for cover (Will Keane and Zach Clough) fared a little better (8 between them by season end).

I dabbled with an asymmetric version, pushing Johnson up to AMR as a raumdeuter and Alvarez up to AMC, dropping the wide backs to support, but that didn't help (in fact, it was dreadful). Midway through the season, battling relegation, I switched to a 4-1-4-1 fluid/control, with a structured/counter variant for trickier games, dropping Cattermole to DMC on his original role/duty, where his form marginally improved when he wasn't suspended (no reds, to be fair, but 13 yellows and the odd injury kept him to 26 appearances in total). Alvarez switched to an RPM beside Rodwell and was far better, but much less involved in the final third. I stopped trying to use a CF(S) up front and went DLF(S), which saw Clough notch up four goals after a long drought, a run I rather spoiled by then signing Ings on the cheap from Burnley in the January '15 window. With Ings scoring plenty and the squad's moaners mostly moved on, form picked up sharply (most notably with a blistering 3-0 win on the counter over Liverpool that could easily have been 6 or 7) and we finished in 14th, easily safe.

The 4-1-4-1 had its issues, particularly against sides sitting very deep and ones with a lot of pace and strength, but on its day worked very well.

Over the summer, I tweaked it a little. With Alvarez gone as his loan ended, and wanting more punch from Dele Alli, his young CM understudy who'd notched up a fair number of games already, the RPM became a CM(A) again, almost a central winger but without being told to run wide. One WM went to support duty, with a CWB(A) behind him on the overlap, while the other stayed attacking but the wingback dropped to support. The striker I again swapped to CF(S) because Ings had the stats for it. The DM became a DM(D), and one of the Romeros (Gaston Gil) - cheesy, yes, but still available and I regret nothing - came in for the unconvincing Cattermole in that role. The same changes applied to the counter version, with FB(A) and WB(S) at fullback, with mirrored versions of both to account for who played at fullback.

That stayed much the same through the 15/16 season. Ten games or so in I tweaked the WM(S) to no longer cut inside (not that it happened much anyway) to avoid any risk of crowding the centre. The wide back overlaps past and he sits out wide behind, covering the flank and chasing down wide second phase ball.

My big problem was up front. Ings went 14 games without scoring while we ground out narrow wins and hard-fought draws to hang on to the top four in the first half season (with wins over strugglers Arsenal and Man City in the space of a fortnight seeing Wenger and Pellegrini sacked; I am become Death, destroyer of managers, etc.). Clough hit one early as a sub, then nothing. I'd brought in Dorin Rotariu in the summer as extra backup striker but he didn't do it (he retrained from winger, and ended the season as first choice out on the left instead). As CF(S), the striker was definitely higher up the pitch, but also disconnected from the game and too easily marked out of it. As DLF, he was deeper, between the lines, and seemed to have better options. Ings, in particular, tends to pick it up almost in the AM strata and then dribble at the defence, something he's good at so long as no one shoves him off it. As CF(S) he barely got the ball at all. I changed back to DLF in December and results immediately improved. Man City steamed past under a new manager, playing us off the park in the return fixture, and a loss to rivals Liverpool finally saw us end 6th, but still that wasn't bad - at all. It could've been better, though, and I'm keen not to rest on our proverbial laurels, especially with a Europa campaign coming up.

The Present

At the end of the season, where things stand now, our shape and squad look like this (in one of the two mirrored versions):

TIs: Shorter passing, Use offside trap, Close down more

PIs:

GK: distribute to fullbacks

DCs: pass short, close down less

FBs: run wide

DM: none

WM(s): close down much more

WM(a): dribble more, cut inside, cross less often, close down much more (which I think is more or less the IF-equivalent)

DLP: tackle harder, mark tighter, close down much more

CM(A): dribble more, cross more often, move into channels, close down much more (the central winger equivalent, almost)

DLF: close down much more

(TIs are different in the counter/structured variant. In counter, we use: retain possession, shorter passing, low crosses, lower tempo, be more disciplined)

GK: Hansen's not great, but pretty reliable and reasonably mobile. Pantillimon's been understudy since Hansen arrived in Jan '15 as while he's better in the air, he rarely budges off his line. A new GK is on my shopping list.

DL: Insua, bought summer '15, is a good attacking WB, a more developed version of Kane on the right. Patchy season but I expect more of him when he settles properly in England. Van Aanholt is his more defensive counterpart. The supporting wingback should (and does) get up to just over the halfway line, hold the space, sweep up whatever comes, and be prepared for the occasional overlap if need be.

DR: Kane came for peanuts from Chelsea's U21s in summer '14, initially as understudy to Billy Jones. Quickly became first choice and that remains. Stats are improving, but he's a good, reliable attacking WB. We're short of cover here, but Kane's a lock for first choice and I want to give him time to develop fully. The job of the attacking fullback is to get ahead of the midfield, pop in crosses and then get back quick if an attack breaks down.

DCs: Balanta has had either Michael Keane, a last minute low-cost signing in the first January window when O'Shea was injured who surprised me by playing with great intelligence and decent ball skills, or Vergini, when Keane's form dipped, partnering him all season. He's had his head turned a little, but his £32.5m release has so far put people off. Had a loanee as #4 choice, but need a new one for the coming season. Both are set to pass it shorter to make sure we don't blow possession, and I'm careful to only bring in defenders who are comfortable on the ball even though they're not playing as BPDs.

DM: Romero has been stellar. Another player being eyed up, again without offers. Rodwell can play here, but is nothing like him, and with that same loanee gone I need a backup. The DM holds the space in front of the back two, breaks up attacks, plays it off to the two CMs. I've tried a DLP and a BWM here, but the plain DM seems to work best.

ML: I signed Rotariu thinking to turn him into an alternative to Ings, since he has all the stats to make a good deep forward. It took him months to settle, and he's been lousy as a striker, but is turning into a good wide man. The WML is set to act as an inside forward, and plays best either running at the defence or getting in slightly late to the box to collect deep crosses from the CWB or the MR. Giaccherini has been main cover here, but since Johnson can play either and Giaccherini is likely to go, I think he'll cover both in the coming season.

MR: Johnson has been a workhorse both seasons, whether in support or attack. His main cover on this flank has been the last of the cheesy signings, Odegaard (picked up in summer '15 only after news items revealed a bunch of mid-table Spanish sides making offers for him; I figured it was worth a punt). Odegaard's attitude has been questionable, and he lacks pace, but as a swap-in here and at MC I want to keep him growing. As a support WM, the WMR either lays it off to more advanced players, the CM(A) or CWB running past them, or sits out wide ready to offer an outlet backwards to hold possession or to protect against the counter.

CM(A): Alli joined as a promising backup to Alvarez in the first summer, since none of Sunderland's other CMs offered much going forward (Gomez had some, but also no legs). He's been easily the club's player of the season, a losing hot tip for the PFA Young Player of the Year award, chiming in with a bunch of goals and some superb performances, and the media have just started rating him as a wonderkid. Hard-working, effective, and consistent. Plays like a young Lampard, and aside from stopping him getting jaded or needing to give someone else a game, he's a lock for the first team. The CM(A) needs to be able to take the ball and run with it, start and finish attacks, get up with and support the striker and generally cause a nuisance in and outside the opposition box. After a poor start, Odegaard's started to fill the role pretty well too, though he lacks Alli's strength.

DLP(S): Club captain Rodwell is great as a sitting playmaker, controlling the tempo, offering an outlet, and also picking up second phase possession and covering against counters. I bought Joe Rothwell for a song in the first summer as cover, and he's about as good (more varied passer, not so good at tackling and much tinier when it comes to the air) in match situations despite being seemingly stuck at 2 stars from 4-ish potential for the past year and his stats being nothing much. This role is the ticking heartbeat of the team, sees the most of the ball (often a hundred passes a match or more, rarely less than 70-80), and it's vital that whoever's here doesn't give it away as well as being able to pick the right dangerous option at the right time. Rodwell has hit a couple of absolute screamers from distance too, and while my coaches keep telling me to train him out of that PPM, I've left it alone.

DLF(S): As already described, Ings does well when he drops back into the space in front of the defence and then runs at people. He does badly when either the opposition close up that space, or else he's bullied off the ball (I've never seen one player be pushed over so often despite him having a decent strength). The role does OK at getting into the box late for crosses and cut-backs, but I still wish he was more of a runner out front when a swift counter is on. Our cover here is limited; after a good season on loan in League One, I gave Will Keane a new contract as his was up, which I'm already partly wishing I hadn't, but Clough's development is apparently stalled and he's going to go out on loan next year, so either way I need someone else to come in.

That's where things stand. The overall tactics seem to suit the squad (and vice versa) reasonably well and our shape on the whole is good. I'm happy with most of the first team, and have a number of youngsters I want to develop by giving them game time, although we obvious need a little more cover here and there. Since sixth is no mean feat with this team, things could be much worse. However, there are some issues I haven't resolved...

The Issues

- We struggle against strong, quick teams, as possession styles tend to. The latter quality is understandable when playing control, but the former is frustrating. When we're able to be bullied off the ball, our gameplan falls apart, even if the other team don't do anything with it. (I've gone out of the FA Cup on penalties early in both seasons against Huddersfield thanks to this.) I'd like to move the ball faster while keeping it on the deck (going more direct generally see us lose it in the air), but have no clue how to make that work. When set to counter, our own lack of blistering pace means that we can get knocked off the ball and back come the opposition again, making pressure from teams like Chelsea, who are good against it, almost relentless. Shy of a total squad overhaul I don't want and can't afford anyway, I'm stumped. Clearly, an alternate approach is needed for these situations, maybe a total change of shape, but I've not found one that works and I don't want to buy, say, an Andy Carroll-type Big Lunk who won't suit the team the rest of the time. Any advice?

- With only three obvious scoring outlets, I'd like to get more out of the striker. Ings is fine as DLF, but against sides who don't let him run at them, or against teams playing a DM who can occupy that space he sits in, I haven't found a good 'Plan B'. Push higher up as, say, an AF and look for quick balls over the top? He's not so good in the air, and nor are the players likely to act as alternative. Is this more of a question of personnel over tactics, or have I missed a trick?

- At present, the CM(A), Alli, has no PPMs. I've been loath to train him in any while his form is so good, even having the Lampard model to follow, but should I, or if it ain't broke, don't fix it?

- Similarly, I've held off having Rodwell tutor Rothwell and Odegaard (he has "plays short simple passes" which would limit their play, and while he's solid, his slightly ambitious personality isn't something that's an obvious must-share). Odegaard's application has been questionable, though; might that help him? I'm lousy at spotting obvious tutor relationships and making the most of them.

[louissiscool]

I am no tactical expert but maybe if you Changed your CM-a to advanced playmaker Attack role you could have ings in a more attacking striker role and score more goals as the playmaker would take the same space as ings used to?

Or even just change ings to DLF - a, i think that might help with the goal scoring. And with faster teams have the more aggressive centre back play as a stopper?

[Torskus77]

Few things to note for me. The overall set up doesn't look bad.

I think you should take a look at some of your closing down settings, think you are going a little overboard with them, and it may be pulling your team apart.

For me you want an attacking WB or FB on the left where the wide midfielder cuts inside, when he cuts in, you want someone going past him on the outside, gives him an extra option. On the right side, if you don't want to cut inside, then you really don't want a left footed player out there, you may not be using those players on screen, but if you use Johnson who I believe is left footed, he's going to struggle to go on the outside as a lefty.

Just a few little thoughts anyway.

[cregan]

I am no tactical expert but maybe if you Changed your CM-a to advanced playmaker Attack role you could have ings in a more attacking striker role and score more goals as the playmaker would take the same space as ings used to?

Or even just change ings to DLF - a, i think that might help with the goal scoring. And with faster teams have the more aggressive centre back play as a stopper?

Hmm... interesting. I'd had little joy with an AP in the asymmetric experiment, and an RPM was never involved enough, but that might be a valid thing to try. AP(A) and AF, particularly on the counter, and look for quicker balls through to the forward. It's not something I'd want to try all the time, I think, purely because Alli has been so good in the CM(A) role the past season (35 league apps, 8 goals, 5 assists, 5 POM, for a kid who only hit 20 in April) and I'd worry about cutting off my nose to spite my face. But as an option, especially with Odegaard in the centre, that could be something to try. I've always been leery of stopper/cover DCs, wary of being pulled out of position, especially since there's cover from the DM anyway, but I suppose against sides coming through the middle a lot it might be worth trying. I'd still worry about balls switching quickly to the flanks and back into the space left behind, though.

I think you should take a look at some of your closing down settings, think you are going a little overboard with them, and it may be pulling your team apart.

To be honest, I'd forgotten I had the TI as well as the PIs in place before I wrote the OP. They're reduced in the counter variant (no TI, reduced on both WM, gone on the ST), but you're right, against a side quicker and stronger it certainly could lead to us chasing shadows.

For me you want an attacking WB or FB on the left where the wide midfielder cuts inside, when he cuts in, you want someone going past him on the outside, gives him an extra option. On the right side, if you don't want to cut inside, then you really don't want a left footed player out there, you may not be using those players on screen, but if you use Johnson who I believe is left footed, he's going to struggle to go on the outside as a lefty.

Yeah, Johnson's a lefty (who runs with the ball down the left, making him go inside from the right side a lot). I used to swap him with Giaccherini (a righty) more when they were the wide players of choice, but Rotariu's also a lefty (which you're right, would hamper his in-cutting ability; I might try taking that instruction off him when he's the WM(A) and see how that goes. He's certainly not been as effective on attack as I'd hoped) and has no ability at MR, so he tends to stay there by default now. I have started swapping Johnson out more as Odegaard's come on. He lacks the pace to really be effective as a WM(A), but as a WM(S) he doesn't need quite the same mobility and his passing is very good. Being two-footed doesn't hurt, either. That said, I'd expect Johnson to be WM(A) more since Insua should have settled more and his pace, better crossing and work rate should make him a slightly better CWB than Kane (their PPMs are almost identical, and both suit attacking play). It's so close between them - aside from footedness, which means I might tweak the WM role for Rotariu when he's on attack since I hadn't thought that hard about that aspect - that I tend to oscillate between mirrored versions a lot.

You've now also got me wishing I had fullbacks with opposite feet; I had a glorious left CWB in FM14 (I think, maybe 13) who was set to act like Faccheti for 60s Inter, getting forward, coming inside, scoring and making goals. Insua in particular has the stats to do that job. Maybe I could adjust his instructions...

With the wide backs as they are at the moment, what's tended to happen in matches is that the CWB overlaps with the WM ahead of him, who then hovers, not quite as wide, halfway between halfway line and penalty box, acting as a pass back option for the CWB and cover if they run into trouble. The WB on the other side then looks after the flank if the WM ahead gets the ball - since the WM doesn't cut inside unless he has possession and otherwise stays out - occasionally moving up to overlap or knock in crosses if they think it's a good idea. (It's not always, but in theory Insua and Kane's decision making should improve as they mature...) If we end up with a spell of possession on the edge of the opposition area, which happens quite a lot even after taking off 'work ball into the box' for the second season, WM(A) and WB(S) will then trade places, pulling defenders this way and that, with the WM looking to make runs into the box where possible and the WB looking to move more to the byline for the cross. By that point, we're often in a sort of crescent shape around the area, with the wide pairs alternately dropping off or moving in, moving as much vertically as laterally, the CM and DLF looking to make runs just inside the 18-yard line and the DLP offering an outlet behind the front while the DM and DCs mop up anything hoofed up the pitch. When it works.

[cregan]

Actually, now you've got me thinking and I'm looking at the wide backs, Insua could be very good in a marauding WB role behind a WM who stays wide. He's got gets forward whenever possible, shoots from distance, shoots with power, and plays one-twos as PPMs, and a reasonable right foot to go with his left, and his attacking stats are good for a fullback. (Kane's largely two-footed, has no one-twos, and runs with the ball down the right and knocks ball past opponent, with shooting PPMs matching Insua, so he wouldn't work going into the middle and is better staying out wide behind a cutting-in WM.) That looks an ideal fit...