Young players potential....

[Malachians]

Ok I have a question, apologies if it's been posted before. Why on earth does the potential of my young players continuously get worse? It never gets better. I am fed up getting young talent that is 5 star potential at 17 and by 19 they have dropped to 3.5 or 3. I have youth facilities of 20, training facilities of 20 and junior coaching of 19, I have the best possible coaches and the majority of my young players actually play first team football. I have even had Martin Odegaard by 19 drop to a 3.5 talent, my coaches that are showing his rating are all rated really highly. If they are estimating their talent at a young age how come it never goes the other way? I never get a 2 star player become a 3 or 4? It's really annoying to get a superb young talent, do everything you're supposed to and by 19 or 20 they're no longer the talent they where. Any idea what I'm doing wrong?

P.S Also if one of these 5 star talents picks up an injury for a few months they come back destroyed, I.E Ruben Neves and James Ward-Prowse both picked up an injury in my game, they are 19 and 22 and where both out for 3-4 months. When JAWP got injured he had 4 star potential (4 and a half when I bought him) he now has 2.5 and Ruben Neves has gone from a 5 star to a 3.5 star in 3 months, exactly the same thing happened to Joshua Onomha, Filippo Romagna and Patrick Roberts.

[Some Guy!]

When a player is young the scouts have very little to base their estimations on. Most of the time, what you'll see (in FM15) is a number of gold stars and a number of black stars for potential. The black stars represent the scout/coach's uncertainly, while the gold stars is what they're fairly sure of. The better the scout or coach, the more accurate they'll be. Even a 20/20 Judging Ability/Potential staff member won't be right 100% of the time.

As was shown in another thread on the matter, for players the age 18 or under it's basically a large guessing game. That's why it's best to wait and see in many cases.

It's also well worth noting that if you're at a club which is increasing in player quality, the stars of all players "will go down". This doesn't represent the quality of players diminishing, this represents the quality of the club as a whole increasing, as the "stars" are based on the quality of the squad, not an outright measure. For example, Smalling would be a 5 star player to a lower Championship Club, but maybe 2.5 for Man United (I haven't actually checked, I'm just throwing out examples). If you had a 4 star player when you were a team battling for the Champions League. Years later with a better squad, with no change that player may only be 2.5 stars now.

It's also well worth noting that potential in the game is set from a player when they are created. The actual value under the hood does not, and cannot change. It is fixed. It doesn't go up or down. What you're seeing is simply the staff's opinions change over time, which occurs with development and as mentioned, the changing quality of your squad.

I'd suggest just not getting overly worked up by the stars. If they're performing in your team, keep playing them. If you've got a 19/20 year old good enough to play, let them, and they'll develop to their potential.

[FrazT]

When a player is young the scouts have very little to base their estimations on. Most of the time, what you'll see (in FM15) is a number of gold stars and a number of black stars for potential. The black stars represent the scout/coach's uncertainly, while the gold stars is what they're fairly sure of. The better the scout or coach, the more accurate they'll be. Even a 20/20 Judging Ability/Potential staff member won't be right 100% of the time.

As was shown in another thread on the matter, for players the age 18 or under it's basically a large guessing game. That's why it's best to wait and see in many cases.

It's also well worth noting that if you're at a club which is increasing in player quality, the stars of all players "will go down". This doesn't represent the quality of players diminishing, this represents the quality of the club as a whole increasing, as the "stars" are based on the quality of the squad, not an outright measure. For example, Smalling would be a 5 star player to a lower Championship Club, but maybe 2.5 for Man United (I haven't actually checked, I'm just throwing out examples). If you had a 4 star player when you were a team battling for the Champions League. Years later with a better squad, with no change that player may only be 2.5 stars now.

It's also well worth noting that potential in the game is set from a player when they are created. The actual value under the hood does not, and cannot change. It is fixed. It doesn't go up or down. What you're seeing is simply the staff's opinions change over time, which occurs with development and as mentioned, the changing quality of your squad.

I'd suggest just not getting overly worked up by the stars. If they're performing in your team, keep playing them. If you've got a 19/20 year old good enough to play, let them, and they'll develop to their potential.

This is a pretty accurate summary:thup:

[Malachians]

thank you