What causes a sudden and total loss of form? Has the AI sussed me already?

[red dragon1978]

Playing as Wrexham in the National League, only 9 games in. However in those 9 I've scored 28 and conceded 7. I've come back from 2-0 down to win 5-2 against one of the top teams in the division, battered another 5-0 and won 3-2, equalizing twice. My front two are scoring and providing, one of my midfield has 4 assists, another 3 assists and a goal. We aren't converting many chances, but we're creating so many (upwards of 20 per game, every game) that it almost doesn't matter.

Then, having changed nothing, no injuries, no suspensions, the form of my ENTIRE team crashes through the floor. I go from most of my team rating 7 and up with 2 or three above 8 and at least 1 above 9, to barely scraping 6.7 across the board. We lose 2-0, 3-1, draw 1-1, lose 3-0 and 3-1. My striker who was on pretty deadly form is putting the ball over the bar from 2 yards out, my defensive forward is almost completely static, missing tackles, not making runs and his goals to attempts has dropped from 1 in 4 to 1 in 7....and he's getting around 5 chances per game, compared to 7-9 previously. My midfield assists have also dropped dramatically, runs aren't being made, nor tackles. I've watched opponents pick up the ball in their own half and not one of my players have even attempted a tackle before the ball is in the back of the net from 2 yards out, which reminds me, my goalkeeper, although nothing fantastic, has been in 'good' form, 5 clean sheets in 9. Now he's missing EVERYTHING. I lost Jennings, Fowler, Vidal, York, Hudson, Belford to long injuries in the preseason, so despite bringing people in I'm very short of numbers, which might be a factor in players getting tired this early in the season (I have York, Vidal and Hudson back, but cannot get Yorks match sharpness up, it's around 60% despite sub appearances and a long run in the reserves. The other 2 are fine).

Could it be my game management? Are my players just tired, or has the AI figured me out after 9 games? Or is there something else I'm missing (perfectly possible).

I'm a bit of a tinkerer, playing 442, 4231, 433 and 41312. I generally play high tempo, mixed passing either on the Counter or Control. I have good pace and acceleration in the midfield and attack, so I use early crosses, run at defence. I usually employ a defensive forward paired with either an IF on one or both sides, or an AF. Sometimes I play an AF with an AM just behind, depending on relative fitness. In the centre of midfield is always a BWM, depending on which player I use they're either support or defence......I have 2 and each is better at one or the other role. Next to them I'll have a DLP on the opposite role to the BWM. I play a relatively flat back four, though I have one very attack minded leftback. I play him on attack, the RB on support, and conversely the left wing on support, the right wing on attack. I've had some success with NO left wing, giving my left back the run of the left wing, relying on a defensive BWM on that side to cover for him...and I've yet to be hurt down that wing, far as I can tell.

I know I was an utter pain over FM15, which I simply could not play, end of story, and again I apologise for that. I'm attempting the demo version of FM 16 before committing to buying, as I'm fairly sure FM has advanced beyond my meagre and often nonexistent abilities. If I can't resolve this issue then I won't buy the game. I was highly encouraged by the performance in the pre-season, though I know that has little bearing on the actual season, and the first 9 games reassured me that for whatever reason, FM16 was going to be good for me. But this sudden crash (which actually was one of the major problems I had with 15) has me worried. Any thoughts please?

[Cleon]

We aren't converting many chances, but we're creating so many (upwards of 20 per game, every game) that it almost doesn't matter.

It really does matter. Normally more shots = poor quality as a rule. If you have less than 50% of shots on target then it's very poor, that is the absolute bear minimum on average that you should be having on target. If not then sooner or later because the quality of the shots hasn't been worked on or improved you'll struggle to convert.

I go from most of my team rating 7 and up with 2 or three above 8 and at least 1 above 9, to barely scraping 6.7 across the board.

Ratings in isolation are meaningless though, so don't focus on them. Instead give the ratings context. Someone can be a 5 all game and then in the last minute gets a goal or an assist and he's be close to 8 for his rating. So what you need to do is focus on why the ratings were lower than they normally are. That's where you'll find the issue.

My midfield assists have also dropped dramatically, runs aren't being made, nor tackles. I've watched opponents pick up the ball in their own half and not one of my players have even attempted a tackle before the ball is in the back of the net from 2 yards out, which reminds me, my goalkeeper, although nothing fantastic, has been in 'good' form, 5 clean sheets in 9. Now he's missing EVERYTHING.

Just because a keeper keeps a clean sheet that doesn't mean he's been playing well. It could be down to numerous reasons. Again though you need to add context to it and see if he was keepng clean sheets because he had no work to do or was it because he was making fantastic save after save? Both scenarios will tell you a lot, so it's something you need to look into.

Fowler, Vidal, York, Hudson, Belford to long injuries in the preseason, so despite bringing people in I'm very short of numbers, which might be a factor in players getting tired this early in the season (I have York, Vidal and Hudson back, but cannot get Yorks match sharpness up, it's around 60% despite sub appearances and a long run in the reserves. The other 2 are fine).

You lost 6 players which is a lot to lose. Tiredness and lack of match fitness will have a detrimental impact on results and what happens during a game. If you are having issues with tiredness early in the season though it'll be hard to recover until you get extra bodies in and can rotate more. That's the downside of playing in the lower leagues with such a small squad, games come thick and fast.

Could it be my game management? Are my players just tired, or has the AI figured me out after 9 games? Or is there something else I'm missing (perfectly possible)

The AI has never figured teams out, so not sure why you think that would be an issue? It's probably down to your management though especially with a tiny squad, add injuries to this too. It could also be down to you expecting every team to play the same way? So far you've not mentioned much about what you've tried or done to combat this.

I'm a bit of a tinkerer, playing 442, 4231, 433 and 41312. I generally play high tempo, mixed passing either on the Counter or Control. I have good pace and acceleration in the midfield and attack, so I use early crosses, run at defence

Forever changing things is a bad idea because how will you learn what's working and what isn't? You also use early crosses because of good pace in the side then tell the team to run at defence which increases dribbling for players. Depending on the shape and roles used this could be quite contradictory, especially if you used AML/R's.

[red dragon1978]

Thanks for all that Cleon

I'm not entirely sure what percentage of shots on target we get, it's definitely around 50% but could be slightly lower. I know my main striker averages a goal every 4-5 shots, but I think he's getting around 40% on target overall. I do know IRL his goals to attempts ratio has been driving me crazy, I've calculated it as 1 goal per eight attempts. I usually work on the basis of 50% of shots taken should be on target, 50% of shots on target should be scored. So if I get, for example, 20 shots, I would be happy with 10 on target and 4-5 goals. I guess what you're saying is 'quality not quantity', which makes perfect sense. I've already told my IF's, AM's and defensive forward to shoot less, which has dramatically reduced the number of shots from outside the box, on the wing etc....but at the cost of a lot of shots. They seem to get the message 'Don't shoot' but forget about the 'Until you're in a better position' part....unless I'm not giving them that option somehow.

I see what you're saying about the ratings....I'm pretty sure the reason my striker's ratings have gone down is because he's not getting the service from the midfield, but why their ratings have gone down I haven't worked out yet...same for the defence and goalkeeper. I'm fairly sure it's to do with tiredness and match sharpness. I'm thinking of taking my foot, or more accurately my teams feet, off the gas for a few games....lower the tempo, keep possession, etc. With my keeper, some of his cleans were because we were utterly dominant, and he had virtually nothing to do. Others were because he played like a god. Similar to the problem with the striker not getting the service, I think on reflection my problem is actually the defence.....they aren't playing well which leaves the goalkeeper exposed and he's being found out more. So my next step is to examine the midfield and defence and see where they're failing and, if I can fix it, see if that affects the strikers and goalie.

You think 6 players is a lot to lose? Sounds like...luckily for you...you've not played as Wrexham lol. That was my ONLY first team goalkeeper, my captain, one of only 2 first team central defenders, my best right back and York was my third choice striker (I only have 3) and second choice AMR...it was a total disaster!! I had to rebuild practically right through the preseason, 2 or more new players practically every game, giving me almost no chance of working out a system....I literally lost a player a match for the first 3 of my 6 friendlies, and at least 1 player between the first 5! Hence the current tinkering.....I'm still not entirely sure of my best side, and the knock-on effect of those injuries is a very few players playing a lot of football, which leads to tiredness and as you say, a detrimental effect on results. I'm just about to play the teams in 2nd, 4th, and 3rd respectively, in the next 12 days. I dread to think how severely we're going to struggle!

I was under the impression that after a year or so, your tactics become more ineffective as teams, in other words the AI, got used to your system and style of play, but could easily be wrong. It's very likely down to my management...as the game has got more complex I've struggled to keep up....hence why trying the demo before I consider buying the game. That's summed up by the error in my thinking that you've identified. I was trying to play a fast, high and hard pressing type of game, which is generally the tactic Wrexham employ IRL. I thought that Run at Defence would put the defence under pressure, whilst Early Crosses would give them little time to react, and/or pull them out of shape as they deal with the cross or crosser. I see now how this won't work, and I think I'll try dumping Early Crosses.

When you say I've 'not mentioned much' about what I've 'tried or done to combat this', I'm not sure what you mean by 'this', but I guess you mean how I combat how my opponents play? In that case , I have to admit my greatest failing...and probably the one where you're going to tell me to forget the game (and are perfectly entitled to do so), is analysis of my opponents. In fact, if you feel that's the case, I'd much rather you say so...this is an experiment to see if it's worth buying the game after all...and you're probably more capable of making that decision for me, as I often don't know that I'm doing things wrong. I can (usually) tell when opponents are parking the bus, when I'm being bossed in the centre of the park, etc. If I feel the opposition are parking the bus, I'll either try pumping the ball into the box, going direct and high line if I want to try 'battering' my way through and getting the ball in behind. If I feel my opponents is slower than me, I'll try drawing them out by going deep with short and quick passing. I've had varying degrees of success with both. If I'm being hard pressed in the midfield, I'll widen the play, lengthen the passing, and concentrate on the wings. Other than that, I really have very little idea. I seem entirely incapable of looking at the pitch and identifying potential runs or runners, danger men or passing options my opponents have, or have the potential to create. I certainly can't look at a game in progress and identify issues, either good or bad. And I have no idea how to learn it. I must admit it's always puzzled me how you and other people work things out....if I tried to work things out as I'm playing, I'd get destroyed. Do you have a 'main save' and then one where you experiment to figure these things out?

Despite my great start, I think I'm going to dump this save and restart. I've obviously made some bad mistakes which have really damaged my players, such as a fairly persistent High Tempo...not helped by that horrendous preseason. And as usual it seems my tactics need a MAJOR rethink.

Once again, thanks. I seem to have written 'War and Peace' here so I apologise! I'll kick off a new save and bear your advice in mind...context, consistency of tactic and style, more analysis of performance and stats. I'll treat it more as an experiment to learn the game, as much as whether to actually buy it. I'm starting to lean to 'not', and would really appreciate your candid and honest opinion....I know I'm utterly useless, but I love the game so much I'm struggling to let go.

[red dragon1978]

Just a very quick update. I restarted, as I said I would. Changed a few things around, did pretty ok...4-0 with 11 shots and 7 on target, noticed a few things and was really happy with the results of those changes in the next game...possession was up, shots were up, and it was only a decent goalkeeping performance for my opponents that kept it to 3-1.

Then lost two of my three central defenders to serious long term injuries, and was beaten to the signing of five consecutive players when I attempted to replace them, leaving me with my second choice centre back (only because I only HAVE three and the third choice is a recent promotion from the u21...both players are utterly rank) and a 17 year old with 4 tackling, 3 marking, 3 heading, and 7-7 pace & acceleration. Therefore, this save has become entirely unworkable within 2 weeks in-game and I am currently VERY doubtful whether I'll bother starting another. I had major problems with injuries with 15, and ok, it's late and I'm tired.....but the feeling of deja vu is sickening. 2 saves, 2 utter destructions of my team to injuries....before the season even begins. I know I have a small squad but this is really galling...both injuries in the last save were incurred in training, and all I've done with that is turned it from Balanced to Fitness...I've not changed the level, nor added any individual training. And as I said, this feels all too familiar.

[fish77]

I've also had a massive loss of form with Wrexham, I'm using a 4-1-4-1 set to counter with flexible/structured shape depending on who we're playing.

I sometimes change the cm roles depending on who's available, I stick with the same players when I'm only playing one game a week but sometimes have to rotate them when we have a midweek game.

Not many TI's, keep possession, be more disciplined & stick to position, I've tinkered slightly with closing down, tempo, width & defensive line but usually don't touch them unless my game plan isn't working.

Pre-season started shakily but performances improved then once the season started we won 4 of the first 5 games and drew the other 0-0, sat top of the league with 7 scored and yet to concede, the system was doing exactly what I wanted with very few shots against and only 1 CCC in 5 games, the opposition were reduced to long shots or trying to pump the ball into the box which we dealt pretty well with, at the other end we are efficient, don't create an awful lot but managing 2 or 3 CCC's a game and getting over 50% of shots on target which I'm happy with, goals have been shared around so I'm not relying on one in form forward.

6th game was at home to Halifax who were struggling, went behind to a great strike from over 25 yards in the opening minutes then just seem to fold and ended up losing 3-0, next game a dull 0-0 then drew 3-3 away to Lincoln after being 2 up in 10 mins and 3-1 at ht, since then it's gone rapidly downhill, the chances that were going in are now missing the target and teams are finding it easier to break us down which is what bothers me more, the lack of goals doesn't concern me as much as the fact that defensively the players aren't applying themselves as well as they were in the opening games and I'm not sure how to correct it as I've not changed anything apart from slight tinkering with TI's during a match.

I've got a feeling it could be down to my man management skills, or lack of, all our goals except one have been scored in the first half, we're generally poor in the 2nd half of games once I've given them a team talk and seem to grind it out which is ok if we have a first half lead,I've also had a problem with Dominic Vose (AM R/C) who I tried to offload as he's no use to my system, he'd only just been signed by the previous manager and I'd managed to offload another player [York) and cancel a loan to trim the squad of players who didn't fit in with what I wanted to do and free up some wages, anyway Vose has been talking to the rest of the squad and they are siding with him, since that all kicked off performances, results & morale have all gone downhill and it doesn't look like I can pull it back, it's not my strongest point but at the same time I don't think we've got the tools to handle that sort of situation as I would in real life.

I've checked the backup saves and both are after I tried offloading Vose but are before the first defeat so going to give it another try, not sure what I can do differently though.