Putting Some Numbaz Around the "Conveyor Belt" Strategy of Building From Within

[Joey Numbaz]

I've seen numerous articles on the web and topics here that focus on building "Academy Only", or "Academy Driven" squads. One of the rules of thumb I've seen is "3 players from the academy to the senior team every 2 two years".

This article from strikerless.com puts some numbers on it for a balanced squad, having enough tutors and youth to keep the "Conveyor-Belt", as he likes to to call it, rolling.

He suggests: 

as a guide, while "hardly calling it a rule set in stone", which seems entirely reasonable.

But I got to thinking and had some questions.

How does this translate to an Academy (or transfers) in terms of what do I need every year to maintain this?

How many 4-star newgens do I need each year to keep this thing cranking?

How do I phase out the old guys in a structured way while still having enough tutors?

I wanted to put some rigor around it all. What should I be targeting each year? If I know what I need the academy to produce, then it's pretty easy to spot where it's faltering or exceeding expectations. In the first instance, I can supplement with transfers, before it's too late. In the later, I can sell off some of the excess, realizing I won't be able to fit in all of these guys we are cranking out. I can tell you, especially with a Hard Brexit save, how many times I find myself with either too many really good players in the youth ranks, or not enough. It's hard to pinpoint what you need and all of the sudden, I have five 4-star players in my U23's that I can't even find playing time for at the youth level.

Also, the real driver of this was the Hard Brexit. I can no longer rely on bringing in star EU U18s. British U18s are crazy expensive if they are any good. So I really needed to know - what does my Academy truly need to produce to keep this thing going. If I cannot produce this, then I will need to get transfers, but how many, and at what ages?

Another part of this is squad size. In his amazing thread on the Ajax Academy, Cleon talks about keeping your squads small, developing every player you can to the best of their ability etc.

So realizing that not many of the Academy (1.5 per year) will ever make our squad, we need to know how many players we need to keep from our intake, to field a team at the lower levels, realizing most are eligible for the U18s (I play in England) for just two years. You'd say 16-20 would be the squad size, or 8-10 per season should be kept.

But how many get promoted to the U23s, where players are eligible for up to 5 more years (actually 5.67 due to the different 'birthday' eligibility dates - U23 use the age as of January 1, U18 use birthday as of September 1). Again, the idea is to try to maintain a small squad, but one big enough to field a team, and not have to use senior players unless you want to, since that squad should also be small. I want to know how many I should be shooting for, instead of just keeping anyone with a pulse and ending up with too big of a squad there. This is really important for knowing how long of contracts you want to give your players going from U18 -> U23 for example.

I also want stability. Ideally I'd never transfer anyone good enough for the senior team until they are too old to play any more. I realize that's not realistic, as players will want more playing time, etc. But this is the goal.

******

Some assumptions for math that is about to follow. You can easily change the assumptions and adapt it to your own assumptions. If you think my assumptions are just flat out flawed, please let me know, I'd love to refine this even more.

I will not loan out my best U23 players, unless I see some terrible development. My squads will be small enough that everyone will play, and with my senior squad only being 22 players, there will be chances for the best U23s to get some first team experience before they actually make the squad outright.

None of this accounts for the players in your academy when you start the game. That being said, the numbers/ages should be similar for a typical team.

All ages are as of September 1 of the year in question.

Players who can make the senior squad by the age of 18 have a typical career (at my team) length of age 18-35.

Players who can make the senior squad by the age of 19 have a typical career (at my team) length of age 19-33.

Players who can make the senior squad by the age of 20 have a typical career (at my team) length of age 20-31.

Players who can make the senior squad by the age of 21 have a typical career (at my team) length of age 21-29.

There will be exceptions, of course. Many. But in general players who are good enough to play younger will also be good enough to play longer. And hopefully we sell the aging guys a year early rather than a year late, while allowing the true club legends to play their entire career with us.

I am changing the rule of thumb from 3 players every 2 years (1.5 per year), to 5 every 3 years (1.67 per year). The math works better, and I think it's entirely realistic and reasonable.

You cannot build Rome in a day - without transfers anyway. If you start with the 2017-18 season, your first graduate won't be 18 until the beginning of the 2020-21 season. So there is a going to be a lag on your Academy production.

The senior team will have ~22 players.

The U23 team will have ~16 players

The U18 team will have ~20-21 players. This is more than the Ajax thread recommendation, but it doesn't really hurt anything to keep a few extra guys down here for depth

You will produce one 18-year old ready for the senior team player per youth intake class every 5 years.

You will produce 2.5 19-year old ready for the senior team players per youth intake class every 5 years.

You will produce 3 20-year old ready for the senior team players per youth intake class every 5 years.

You will produce 2 21-year old ready for the senior team players per youth intake class, every 5 years. This is lower than 19-20 year olds because there won't be many. These are late bloomers, but if a guy isn't ready by the time he's 20 for a rotation spot on the senior team he likely won't ever be.

Add those numbers up, and it turns out that you are generating 8.5 players every 5 years. Whaddya know, that's 1.7 per year! So far the maths add up to our goal.

Here is what it looks like in chart form

In 2020, you've got a 4:1 chance at having an 18 year old ready for prime time, in 2021 you'll have a 50/50 shot at a 19 year old from the first class, as well as a 4:1 shot an 18 year old from your second class. And on the conveyor belt goes. Some years you'll get two 19 year olds and no 18 or 20 year olds. But on average this would be what we'd hope for. If you see your squad not meeting these numbers, then you need to go to the transfer market for some youth that can play.

******

What does this mean for your youth squads? Here are some numbers to target, which account for players moving off of the U23's and up to the seniors through as they gain experience:

So typically of the 10-11 players you keep from each intake, 5 will graduate to the under 23s and 5-6 will be released. I will give the five new U23s 4 years there if possible (or a 3 year deal and then extend them for a year once allowed), once you are in you are in for your age 18-21 seasons. Some years it will be 6 or 7, others it will be 3 or 4, of course. Also, every 5 years on average one will graduate straight to the senior team.

Then slowly, those players will move up. Some will move up after one year, others after two or three. So while you are keeping 5 per year, instead of 20 players at the U23's you'll have your target of 16. Of the five U18s that you keep, eventually 1.7 will make the senior team. The other 3.3 you can sell or release before their age 22 season, or keep them around and have a bigger U23 squad with some depth, etc.

*****

So when will you have an entire squad of 22 academy graduates, if you maintain this 5 every 3 years goal? 2037-38.

What??!! Seriously? Yeah, it takes that long, at 5 every 3 years (which is 10% faster than 3 every 2, remember), to have an entire squad of newgens from your academy.

Don't forget, we'll expect that our 21-year olds who begin to debut in 2023-24 will no longer be good enough for the squad by 2032-33 when they turn 30.

So for example in 2028-29, we'll expect to have 1.7 21-year olds, 22-year olds, etc. but there won't be anyone from our academy age 27 yet. That 18 year old who debuted in 2020-21 is still only 26 in 2028-29.

This isn't that big of an issue, it's not like you don't start with a squad full of players to begin with. This chart only shows your newgens by expected age. But it takes a long time to build a truly newgen academy only team assuming you get 5 players every 3 years.

Moving back to that strikerless chart from up top:

How well does this line up with what I've put together?

To keep the constant flow of players rising up, while having enough tutors and experience my numbers show a final breakdown of:

The top number is a running total of players at or below each age. So you'd expect to have 9 players age 24 or younger on your senior team, 22 age 35 or younger.

The bottom number rounds them off into groups. So 1 player age 18-19, 5 players age 25-27, etc.

Comparing my numbers directly against those in the initial graphic:

Age range   Strikerless  JoeyNumbaz

14-19               2.5-10%        0.9- 4%

20-23               3.5-15%        6.4-29%      

24-26               6.5-25%        5.15-23.5%

27-29               6.5-25%        5.15-23.5%

30-33               3.5-15%        4.0-18%

34+                  2.5-10%         0.4-2%

Total                   25                22

Pretty close. I've got fewer very young (but more 14-23 total) and very old players. The rest is pretty similar.

So anyway, when looking over your initial squad if you want to strive for some age balance as well as building an eventual academy conveyor belt, these are some numbers to target.

If you are a small club, and really cannot afford to keep your best players past age 24, for example, you can change the number of academy graduates to match, realizing they will leave sooner so you need more.

Tutors? This covers that, you have 14.7 tutors (as of September 1, by the end of the season you'll have one or two more as they age to 24) typically out of the 59 players (21u18-16u23-22senior) in your organization. That's enough to have a tutor going for every 2.5 players on the U23/U18.

But, remember half of the U18s are players you never even expect to make your U23 squad. 2/3 of the U23s will never make your senior squad. If you only count the 26 players at any given time who you consider real prospects (players who are on or will eventually be on the U23 team) 15-16 is more than enough tutors.

I hope this helps with your long term planning. I've attached the spreadsheet in Mac Numbers format (sorry, I just like using it so much more than Excel for the ease of formatting and making it look pretty). I think you can still open it in Excel though.

If you want to change the assumptions, just change the pink cells on the middle table "Academy Graduates". What you want are the expected number of 18, 19, 20 and 21 year old (as of September 1 of the season in question remember) Academy graduates each year. If you put in more graduates, of course, your roster will get bigger and you may need to change your assumptions for when you get rid of players. 

 

JoeyNumbaz-ConveyorBeltAcademyStrategy.numbers

[..Valhalla..]

What a great post. I really love producing and developing youth, and it's my #1 priority no matter which club I'm managing (and the sole reason I won't manage a club where it's not a board philosophy and/or where they expect me to make high profile signings).

My absolute dream is to field a team of players that are all from my academy. 

[Snorks]

Some fantastic work there @Joey Numbaz and a great explanation of what our expectations should be.

I have to admit I am not quite so numbers-driven as that when it comes to the youth aspect of the game. But i do have a few 'techniques' I employ.

Firstly, I approach my u18s the same as I do my first team.  I like to have two promising players covering each position (same tactics as first team) as training and tutoring is my main focus at this stage. So I review the squad with each intake, and I like to have PA of at least 3* from my intake. PA of 2.5* will be looked at, and personality, professionalism, determination is take into account. 2* PA will tend not to get signed unless they are outstanding professionals, very high determination etc. 

Any positions that don;t have two 3* PA players in, I will scout the leading academies in the game, and plan to buy-in a few players to fill the gaps. If I am buying in though, a 4* PA is a minimum, and decent Determination/Professionalism/Ambition etc are required.

So, at the start of a season, I will have 22 u18 players and pretty much all of them will have the potential of making the first team, if only as rotation players. The others should develop with an intrinsic value and be sold off at age 20/21. The important thing to note, is that these players, signed through intake or purchased, will be at my club for at least five seasons. Or that is my intention anyway - doesn't always pan out that way, but I rarely, if ever, actively move a player on who is younger than 21.

My first team squad is decided using the 'two-players for each position' selection, based solely on CA. Those that need not be registered because of age aren't - unless I need to meet home-grown quota's.

The three 'spots' left in my first team squad are selected from the u23s, with no real rules to follow here,  I like to see at least 2*CA though, and the three are selected on ability only - I will try and give  them at least 15 games over the season, plus 'Avalable for u23s' selected. If I don;t think they will get that game time with me, they get loaned out - from 18-21 yrs old, game time is my focus for development. Over the course of that season I will probably see one of them perform enough to earn a full spot in the squad so  I look to sell an older player on to make room. The kid who came in on intake day is now a member of my first team squad as a rotation option - where he goes from here is entirely down to his development and attitude.

Age 19-21 is where it can get a bit 'woolly' in terms of loans out or u23 matches. But at the club I tend to have 22 players still, two in each position, in the u23 squad - PLUS 3 players in the first team that are available for the u23s, PLUS those players out on loan - and it is a fairly fluid situation, with loan offers throughout the season and u18s being promoted up to replace or loans brought in to assess before buying.

I like to see my u18s winning trophies, am not bothered about the u23s winning anything as those years are pure attribute development.

My u18s are tutored as much as possible, and trained and kept together to develop a cohesion and learn the ways of the club tactic. at 18 they are promoted (at season end) to the u23s, for a year. 19 they may get loaned out for a season or two, at 21 they need to be knocking on the door of the first team squad if not already there as one of 'the three'.

With this structure in place, I find the 'three every two years' tends to happen almost naturally - once the facilities are at a decent enough level, and the coaching and HoYD are in place. 

[Joey Numbaz]

I've been thinking about this even more, and if you really wanted to go the extreme youth route, there's a paradox - you can develop fewer players and do a more extreme youth movement in terms of your senior squad and how much they play. I'm not sure of what the sweet spot is in terms of roster size, but say you wanted three squads of 16, senior, u23, u18. That's a tight 48-man organization.

There'd be some serious advantages here.

• More senior squad playing time for your U23/U18 guys = development without loans! I do a lot of this anyway, but EVERYONE plays with a squad this small. Your players will develop better.
• With the same transfer budget, you can buy better players if you don't need as many.
• You can pay your players more to entice them to stay. You have the same sized pie and need fewer pieces.
• You can sell off some good players to have even more to spend on some real stars
• You don't need to develop as many players.
• It's a lot easier to manage fewer players. Fewer training schedules to set, fewer training/development emails to clog your inbox, etc.
• With fewer players you will have plenty of chances to get players playing time to get familiar with multiple roles/positions.

Of course there are some disadvantages.

• More senior squad playing time for your U23/U18 guys. You might draw a game you would have won or lose a game you would drawn with a deeper first team.
• Fixture congestion - you need to be really careful with keeping an eye on your players' condition.
• The kids you do get need to be good. Nearly anyone on your U23 squad needs to be able to step in to cover for injury, fatigue, etc. By definition at least two will dress for every senior game. This likely means you will need to (sometimes heavily) dip into the youth transfer market.
• You probably can't play a crazy intense tactic, other than in spurts. You cannot play an attacking/pressing style every game for 90 minutes with a small squad unless you have some superhuman fitness freaks in the squad.
• With fewer players, you will likely have less flexibility should you want to change your tactic or play multiple tactics. You will need versatile players.

Here's what it might look like with comparable charts to before.

• 8 kids from each youth intake (as opposed to 10)
• 4.75 graduates to the u23s each year (as opposed to 5).
• 8 players from U23 to senior every 7 years 1.14 per year, not 1.67. Or from the other angle 5 every 3 years is 11.67 every seven years - we're cutting that to 8 here.
• Note, the "dropped" players come from the 20-21 year olds who finally make the senior team. Those good enough to make it as 18-19 year olds should still be good enough with the reduced roster. The lesser prospects are the ones we cut.

 

[Joey Numbaz]

So I am trying to put this 16-16-16 idea to the test with my squad heading into the 2021-22 season.

A little background - I signed loads of youth in my first couple of years at Everton. These are just the guys with 4-5 star potential still with me. Johnson, Pugh and Henderson are the only ones my HoYD brought in.

I usually don't loan my really outstanding prospects, but I had to, especially towards the end of last season. There were just too many and they couldn't play enough, even in the U23s, with my youth teams being pretty amazing and having plenty of games to play.

In the U18-PDL-1 North we've outscored opponents 155-43 the last 3 seasons, finished 17-2 with 3 draws each year. We won twice, but last year United snuck in and outpointed us 55-54.

We won the Under-18 Premier League Cup in 2019-20, lost to United in extra time in the final in 2020-21.

Side note: Have I mentioned how ridiculously good United have become? The won EVERYTHING 2020-21. Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, U18 League, U18 Premier League Cup. It's unreal. At least I beat them 5-3 in the Community Shield. Then they beat me 3x and we drew 2 others. The kick in the teeth was the 1-0 loss on an 81' goal in the home (first) leg of the Champions League semi. We drew 0-0 at Old Trafford but it wasn't enough. Did I mention we got stuck playing them in the 3rd round of the FA Cup as defending FA Cup Champions? Lost 4-2. Lukaku scored all four goals too. But I digress.

The U23s have been a similar story, winning the league 4-of-5 seasons

We won the Checktrade Trophy in 2018-19, the Premier League Cup in 2019-20, the Premier League International Cup and the Viareggio Tournament in 2020-21. I've got insane youth talent.

I actively manage the lineups before all youth games. They play with my tactics. Seems obvious, but wanted to mention it just in case.

So I'm going to cut it all down. Here's an idea of the plan. I need to use my own spreadsheets to track this stuff, the game doesn't really cut it for me when trying to organize. Not enough filters for showing subsets of the squad, etc.

I cannot quite get it down to 16/16/16 this year, but I can be pretty close. I'm not just going to dump Siggy, Coleman and Modric to meet numbers. But their playing time will be reduced, and I assume they'll just retire after the season. Siggy may want to hang around, he'll be 32 in September. I am sending them on coaching courses as often as possible, I'd like to keep them around after they are done.

A couple of those "U23" guys are first teamers for me. This shows how integrated they actually are, while trying to balance the ages of the squad so players are constantly being refreshed. Coulibaly is my poor man's N'Golo Kanté, for example, my midfield destroyer. He played 26 EPL games last year. Laimer is older though, so he's nominally listed as first team for these purposes. Pellegri played 24 EPL games and scored 9 goals. Onyekuru is listed as senior, but that's because he's too old for U23s now. He played 17 games and was less important than Pellegri and will be less important going forward.

I tried to keep the age balance as best I could, so some lesser older prospects will stay with the club while some better, younger ones get loaned out. I have roughly 7 million good 19 year olds. This summarizes everything above the grey bars in the middle of the above chart, the players who will stay.

You may have noticed, comparing the targets there to previous posts. The key thing I saw when I actually put this into practice ... the numbers have to change. If you are going with this small of a squad, you aren't promoting players to the first team as 18-19 year olds. They aren't ready for that much playing time at this level. It's one thing to get them games for development as part of a 22-25 man team. But as part of a 16 man team it's too much. I can tell because the players they'd be replacing are so much better than they are if they are in the top 16. The first team would suffer too much.

So what happens is, they may be on the senior squad in practice, but they will also play U23 games as well. And some U18s will play U23s too. And U23s and occasionally U18s will even get some senior games in as cover for tired players or against inferior opposition. Especially in cups. The whole squad will be a lot more fluid. The best/most fit players will play the senior games, while working some of the kids into less important games.

Another thing. Keepers don't count. They are too random, age differently, etc. So it's more like a 14-14-14 in the outfield and do whatever you want keeper wise. Ideally 2 senior, 2 U23 and 2 U18. It's hard enough to balance all of this numbers wise, throwing goalies into it overcomplicates it.

The backup U23 keeper is basically just there in case someone gets hurt, he doesn't play very often, because the backup senior keeper needing time to stay fit and wanting to develop the better U23 keeper.

Here's what the numbers look like now:

Focusing in on the U18s ...

This is the bummer of the hard Brexit. Look at all of the pink and how little green and teal there is. But this doesn't have to be the end of the world.

For one, we only need 1.4 players per year to make the senior team. And that doesn't really happen until they are 20-23 now, since our true senior team is tougher to crack. If we have a down year or two, a few years down the line we just bring in a 20-23 year old transfer and make it work. Also if by some miracle an English team will let me sign away one of their good U18s, I will do so, even at a premium.

But the real bummer is that I don't see us dominating things like the EUFA Youth League anymore. There just won't be enough talent, even with our 19 year olds also being eligible.

It's June 25, 2021 the season is about to start. Hopefully I can loan out and sell off as much of the excess as possible and report back on how workable this truly is in terms of squad fitness through Cups, Europe and Premier League grind. All loaned out players can be recalled. So if I need bodies I can bring them back.

It will also be interesting to see which players develop better. The ones loaned out or the ones who stay with me.

Anyone have any advice for getting teams to make offers on some of these 18-20 year olds? They are really good prospects, but it's hard to get teams to offer to buy them for a good price.

[Snorks]

5 hours ago, Joey Numbaz said:

 

Anyone have any advice for getting teams to make offers on some of these 18-20 year olds? They are really good prospects, but it's hard to get teams to offer to buy them for a good price.

Can be difficult as they are not being 'seen' by other clubs - ie: not getting much first team game-time. 

To successfully offload them at that age, there are a few factors that come into play:

1. How many other clubs are investing in younger players? In-game, there aren't that many AI clubs that invest in potential, and won't pay reasonable fees for unproven youngsters. Could be worth looking up those clubs with a rep for development and targeting them.

2. Use the loan system, if you have players that aren't going to be good enough for you, and still have a couple of years left on their contract, then loan them out for half or full season. If they get a  run of decent performances at a lower level clubs may take more of an interest.

3: Rarely, if ever, will you get an offer of more than in-game value for youngsters. Don;t get greedy, if you want rid of them, take what you can get and accept low-ball offers

4: If it is a case of getting rid of players that won;t make the grade, just get them off the books through loans - with wages paid, regardless of playing time, negotiate a loan until the end of the contract.

 

[Joey Numbaz]

Thanks for the tips!

A year ago, as the season was winding down, I had a mediocre prospect on an expiring contract. Josh Bowler. He left on a free. He was a decent player, had high value at one point, but wasn't ever making my team. I had his transfer status asking price set to £17 million. Never changed it. Sure enough as the winter window was closing, Arsenal offered me the £17 million! Praise whatever you believe in!

The little ************ decided he didn't want to play for Arsenal. Gotta be kidding me. Now he's 22 and playing for Rotherham. Who he helped to get relegated from the championship last year. It was like hitting the lottery and then he burned the ticket before I could cash it in. And he's only making £5750 a week. I'm sure Arsenal would have done better 

Quite a set of expiring contracts here.

Of the kids, I really can only keep like 5 or 6 of them. So I guess loan them out and hope they impress will be the strategy.

I'd love to get value+ for guys like Berkovits and Etxabe (who is jerk attitude wise too).

And if someone would pay me £19 million for Holgate I'd do cartwheels in the street.

 

[steakfaced]

6 hours ago, Snorks said:

Can be difficult as they are not being 'seen' by other clubs - ie: not getting much first team game-time. 

To successfully offload them at that age, there are a few factors that come into play:

1. How many other clubs are investing in younger players? In-game, there aren't that many AI clubs that invest in potential, and won't pay reasonable fees for unproven youngsters. Could be worth looking up those clubs with a rep for development and targeting them.

2. Use the loan system, if you have players that aren't going to be good enough for you, and still have a couple of years left on their contract, then loan them out for half or full season. If they get a  run of decent performances at a lower level clubs may take more of an interest.

3: Rarely, if ever, will you get an offer of more than in-game value for youngsters. Don;t get greedy, if you want rid of them, take what you can get and accept low-ball offers

4: If it is a case of getting rid of players that won;t make the grade, just get them off the books through loans - with wages paid, regardless of playing time, negotiate a loan until the end of the contract.

 

Yeah, honestly I just loan them for years until they start getting regular time in one of the big clubs (if that's their ceiling) and then finally try to move them on. I sign long contracts when they're young, with club-side extensions for 1-2 years, and they never complain cuz they're never playing for me.

 

For expiring contracts I always keep resigning kids. They're young, and if they're still cheap it's worth it. You gotta utilize the loan system tho, it's not flawless but its first team playing time. Do you bother making them HGC and Nation? I'm obsessed with HGC and rotate my entire team based on the 3 year wait for that. I move frmo 18 to 23 only when necessary and replace from the outside if I can, but my goal is to [perfect situation] buy at 16 so at 18 they can go on loan and are HGC already.

 

Try to keep a bunch of the kids and just loan for years. IF their salary is paid, it costs you nothing and as some get good enough for other teams (but not yours) you can add 40k p/m, 60k p/m, even up to 250k p/m and make money off loans. I've tried selling players and found teams more willing to pay huge loan fees than buy outright. 

[Joey Numbaz]

I never really worry about HGC because I have so many good U21 players around that the registration limits aren't a problem for me. I rarely even find 25 I want to register, though in the Champions League they are a little tougher on what counts for a U21 player. And I get the "you've played XX players, most in the Premier League" press question every year. XX is usually 28-30. Last year I think it was 35.

I guess this is going to change with the hard Brexit now though.

True, I can keep signing and making money on them through loans, that's a good idea. And I guess I could use the extra money to help the wage budget to keep guys, since I am hoping I won't have to spend too much on transfers going forward. Sunderland (Championship) just gave me £60k/month for a 4-5 star 19-year old who I signed for £725k last year. Funny thing. They gave me £60k/month but won't pay any of his £6K/week wage.

I am really curious to see who develops better. I assume some of each (those that stay vs. go) will do good and bad.

[Joey Numbaz]

So my Assistant Manager just told me I need to change my asking price for a player of Etxabe's potential from £30 million to £70 million. He's 19 and valued at £7.5 million. I paid £3.1 million for him two summers ago. Loaned him out to Swansea (Championship) last year and he played full time. Wasn't great (6.95 average rating in 30 apps, 3 goals, 7 assists). They finished 8th. No way I really get £70 million for him, right? That's just my AssMan saying I shouldn't sell him? But there is major interest from Barcelona for a transfer! Fingers Crossed Emoji.

[steakfaced]

4 hours ago, Joey Numbaz said:

So my Assistant Manager just told me I need to change my asking price for a player of Etxabe's potential from £30 million to £70 million. He's 19 and valued at £7.5 million. I paid £3.1 million for him two summers ago. Loaned him out to Swansea (Championship) last year and he played full time. Wasn't great (6.95 average rating in 30 apps, 3 goals, 7 assists). They finished 8th. No way I really get £70 million for him, right? That's just my AssMan saying I shouldn't sell him? But there is major interest from Barcelona for a transfer! Fingers Crossed Emoji.

Haha good luck, I wish I could get that luck. Usually bids never formulate once I move the price like that. Also I think more so because i'm obsessed with a 25 man team of HGC players that I worry about that more.

[Joey Numbaz]

Yeah, and part of me is like ... if Barcelona wants him, and he has the "wonderkid" description, maybe I should keep him then ... 🤔

[Snorks]

7 hours ago, Joey Numbaz said:

Yeah, and part of me is like ... if Barcelona wants him, and he has the "wonderkid" description, maybe I should keep him then ... 🤔

Lol, that kind of second-guessing yourself is part of FM Life.

To be fair, I am not really looking at making money off loans, loaning out is purely a developmental thing, or a shop window for me. 

Nor do I really consider the home-grown thing either. I tend to buy in three or four kids, at 16 or 17 over the course of a season anyway, plus my own intake and sign them for as long as possible. That way there is always a group of players who become HG for me - waiting on the Brexit conditions in my current save so that may all change.

 

[Joey Numbaz]

Turns out Barcelona took him ... on a loan! Talk about hedging my bets. They are paying me a total of £3 million for him for the season. He only costs me £572k a year, so that's nice. They are going to play him on a rotation basis. I can live with that.

But man, he is such a whiner. He complained about going to Barcelona on loan. I guess it's great that he wants to stay at Everton, of course. He complains about everything with his Perfectionist, Evasive, Confrontational personality. Maybe Barca will tutor him up.

I also offered him a new 4-year contract. I wonder if he accepts, will Barca pay the new salary or not?

[steakfaced]

5 hours ago, Joey Numbaz said:

Turns out Barcelona took him ... on a loan! Talk about hedging my bets. They are paying me a total of £3 million for him for the season. He only costs me £572k a year, so that's nice. They are going to play him on a rotation basis. I can live with that.

But man, he is such a whiner. He complained about going to Barcelona on loan. I guess it's great that he wants to stay at Everton, of course. He complains about everything with his Perfectionist, Evasive, Confrontational personality. Maybe Barca will tutor him up.

I also offered him a new 4-year contract. I wonder if he accepts, will Barca pay the new salary or not?

The loan will only cover the contract at the time, so if he was on 572 p/a when you loaned him, now you pay him 1,572,000, you're on the hook for 1,000,000. Which makes sense, it's why before a season I sign new contracts BEFORE loaning out my players I know I'm keeping.

Again, I almost always [now] add the club side optional extra year, because it allows me to loan them out in the final year on their cheap contract, not have to renew, and if someone comes in with a bid I just trigger it. If not I can maybe even negotiate a better deal.

[Joey Numbaz]

11 hours ago, steakfaced said:

it's why before a season I sign new contracts BEFORE loaning out my players I know I'm keeping

I tried 😢. As soon as Barca came with the bid I went for the extension. But the deadline on accepting the bid came before he finalized the new contract. Oh well. I didn't want to reject the bid and have Barca move on.

11 hours ago, steakfaced said:

I almost always [now] add the club side optional extra year, because it allows me to loan them out in the final year on their cheap contract, not have to renew, and if someone comes in with a bid I just trigger it. If not I can maybe even negotiate a better deal.

This is a really good idea. I've added the options on a bunch of players, but sometimes I wonder if it's worth having to pay them more to get them to go for it. But having at least one option year is a really good idea, you are correct. I need to make a point of not forgetting to do that.

[Joey Numbaz]

I am starting to feel better about the English talent available for the U18s, at least with a transfer budget the size of Everton's (~£60 million for 2021-22).

So far this summer I was able to turn the squad a little more "blue/green":

June 28                                                                                   July 28

 

Meet Darren Tevendale and Alan Hill

Hill especially is a superstar in the making. He had a £19.5 million release clause with Burnley, who is in the Championship now. I am going to turn him into a WBR/CWB. 17 years old and already 17 crossing! 16 work rate! 17 acceleration! 15 technique! Per my AssMan he's already the 3rd best WR, behind Pulisic and Sandro. He might be the best U18 in England. He'll get first team time this year for sure, and hopefully he'll be the star of our quest for a 4-peat in the UEFA Youth League.

Tevendale cost £7.25 million from Blackburn (bouncing between League One and the Championship the last few years).

Now I have three 16 and three 17 year olds I will be comfortable bringing up to my U23s over the next two years. I really need to find a decent 16 year old center back also, but my 22 (now 26!) scouts haven't been able to find one in the UK as of yet.

I am starting to think this can work, with good youth players solely from England in a Hard BrexitTM, if you have the budget and commit to it. I also cut two of the U18s once I signed these guys.

I have loaned out all but three of the U23 players I wanted to, but strangely two of my best prospects haven't generated much interest. I still have a few weeks to find them a club. I have tried my best to not play any of those guys before they were loaned in my friendly every three days pre-season. Remember part of this is to see if you can get through a season with just 48 players in your organization. Well, 52 this year for me, since I have Modric/Coleman/Siggy and a 17th U18 player.

The other thing is that I want to see which players develop better. The ones that stay here as U23s with some first team time, or the ones loaned out. That's why I tried to split the talent/ages kind of equally for the 26 players loaned and 16 who stay.

Practically all of my players, except for a few U18s are already 100% on match sharpness, which is a nice side effect of this.

[Joey Numbaz]

For me it's been hit or miss, with a lot more misses. Of course, they'd probably also eventually miss floundering on my U23 team without much 1st team playing time.

But now I am starting to pay more attention to the facilities of the club I am loaning too, and that the level matches up with what my coach reports say is appropriate for the player. We'll see if it helps.

[steakfaced]

12 hours ago, Joey Numbaz said:

For me it's been hit or miss, with a lot more misses. Of course, they'd probably also eventually miss floundering on my U23 team without much 1st team playing time.

But now I am starting to pay more attention to the facilities of the club I am loaning too, and that the level matches up with what my coach reports say is appropriate for the player. We'll see if it helps.

I'll have players win Young Player of the Year, and then generate zero interest. I'll have players average 6.3 and get a bid the next year for double value. It's bizarre and makes zero sense.

My current City save got hit with a hard brexit so I'm probably inching towards this route more so now than before. I can get permits for some Asian players tho, and have 3 Japanese U-20 players currently.

[Joey Numbaz]

So I sold Kasper Dolberg. He's an amazing player, but he alway gets hurt. I am trying to keep my numbers down, and Bayern went to £64 million guaranteed with another £30 million in reasonable clauses (50 appearances and 20 international apps). This was right after he went down for another 5-6 weeks with another injury. I paid £29 million for him in the summer of 2018 (now August of 2021).

On the one hand there is this:

Which has been very nice.

But there is also this:

Which ... not so much.

And this. Remember part of the 16-16-16 idea is letting the youth play so they develop.

So I pulled the trigger. 20 year old Pietro Pellegri wanted to reward my confidence in him:

Don't be afraid to let the kids play!

[Rashidi]

I am afraid numbers do my head in nowadays. I will leave that to the younger members on the forum.

Years of playing this game and I do hope that the training module changes, have taught me several golden rules:

1. You need to invest in : Junior Coaching Budget and Youth recruitment, by going to the board and asking them to increase their reach. I think it’s called Youth recruitment.

2. The size of the squad is important. And this is where you need to have a dual strategy.  Currently I produce 4 stars a season as a minimum.  I also recruit players. I find them when they are 17 or lower and add them to my academy. Having a good youth team is important. These boys will take part in tournaments so you need to track these tournaments. Y adding a screenflow that updates you on any tournament progress. This screen will also keep you updated about any competitions that matter like the U19 World Cup. If someone there is a star but plays for a small nation then I start tracking him. If needed I add them to my academy by recruiting them.

3. Having built up my academy it’s about progression score and progression factor then. Here you want to be continuously in a state of improvement till you achieve state of the art. And you want to give them some game time. They need at least 15 appearances but don’t fret if they have less. Between 16-18 it’s ok to give them a cameo of at least 10-15 mins in the first team. I target matches where we could win or insignificant tournaments. 15 games a season becomes important when they are 18 and higher. Learn to rotate and know when to bring them on and off.

4. When they hit 18 my decision revolves around which league I am in. In Europe we have the HGC rule which can be important and trying for some newly promoted clubs so I make sure the very best 5 stars never go out on loan till they achieve HGC. When they do they should be around 18 or 19. Academy players will be really fast, imports take longer.

5. System stability is important, develop youth with a view of using them in your system. There isn’t any point in developing a winger if you have always been wingerless. You don’t want to be changing your system for one player.

6. Currently we have 4 wonder kids who are playing this season at Kingstonian.  They are all 19 years old and play literally every match now. We have 3 academy boys in the first team too,  one is injured and I put two on loan. Each one of them has a customised training program where I have identified what they need in terms of attribute development.

Its a really simple game. Invest in your facilities, make sure your U19 training coaches are the best in the league by continually evaluating them. Identify players who can play in your system. Play them and make sure you pick the right games so their progression factor doesn’t take a hit. Finally make sure you focus on strengthening their weaker attributes, the earlier you do this the greater the chance they will a big part in your system.

It took me quite a few seasons after getting Kingstonian into the premiership. We are in our sixth season, this plan kicked in when we were in our 1st season in the premiership. My first batch is now in the team and by next season this group will lift the title and the ECL soon after.

[Joey Numbaz]

1. Is automatic, I agree. You have to do that. It's pretty easy for me at Everton to get to State of the Art Facilities and Extensive Youth Recruitment. Making signing youngsters for the first team and developing players from the academy part of the things you are judged on helps when asking the board. As does giving your coach character 20 determination.

Same for the coaching. I find it hard to get coaches higher than 4 stars for the U18 team, but it's easy to get 4-star coaches, and 4.5-5 star Fitness and GK coaches. I give myself a specialty in tactics and defense, so I'm a 5-star tactics or defense coach which helps.

Some of the other things are a bit tougher in a hard Brexit. Especially if you don't have money to shell out £20 million on a stud 16 year old in England every year ... and the ability to be able fade a few when they don't work out at that price.

Once you leave the EU, even with a soft Brexit, non-UK players cannot join your squad until they are 18, which makes it tougher to improve your U18 team. You really need to scout the heck out of the UK at this point.

[Joey Numbaz]

Small roster update.

It's early, I'm in October right now. It feels like 16-16-16 is a little too small for day-to-day operations - especially around the international breaks, when 38 of the 48 (51 technically for me right now) players are on international duty 

Or when your schedule looks like this over a 15-day stretch. Yes that is 5 senior matches, 2 U23 matches, 4 U18 matches and 1 U18/U23 match (EUFA Youth League).

I've had a few more injuries than usual too. Or maybe it just seems that way.

I think I've only had one or two ghost players used (only as a sub), but I've also had to use the two of the three 'extra senior players' in a couple of games. Perhaps I could have got away without them. Modric got hurt in a U23 game so he hasn't played as a senior yet. Out of 990 minutes so far, Colemean has played 96 and Siggy 105. But they've also made 7 starts and 3 subs in U23 games, which someone else would have had to suck up.

Medical center says I'm at a 17% decrease in injuries so far. Maybe that's what it seems like I am getting slammed, it's usually ~25% decrease for me. My senior team has been hit harder than usual, so that might just be a little bit of bad luck. It's not like the seniors who have gotten hurt were playing more than I'd normally play them. The point of this was to get the U23s and U18s more senior time.

It's close though. I would say maybe even 18-18-18 would be perfectly fine. We'll see how we get through the winter grind.

It is very nice to have to manage 26 fewer training schedules because those guys are on loan. This is a big positive.

It's also a lot easier to make out the lineups for the U23/U18 games - most of the time. They almost fill themselves in since there are few options. The only issue is when the U23s play the same day or the day before a EUFA Youth League game. Then I have to be careful that I don't play the U23s that I want playing with the U18s the next day in the first game. And I have to bump some of the lesser U18s up to the U23 lineup and it's like threading a needle with so few players.

[Joey Numbaz]

What about development? This is crude so far. Just basically looking at where the potential stars are going up or down. And I have no baseline either, since I never tracked this previously.

Very simple. Player gets a + if his potential stars go up half a star (from range of 2.5-3.5 to range of 3.0-4.0, for example). He gets a - if the opposite. A jump from 2.5-3.5 to 3.5-4.5 would get ++.

Loan players (26 total)

2 +, 2 -

U18 players (17)

5 +, 2 -

U23 players (14)

1 +, 1 -- that's a double minus. Florian Dober, FBL has seen his potential drop from 4-5 to 3-4. He's still developing though, so no real concern there.

Seniors (20 players)

1 ++, 2+, 2- (one of the minus is Seamus Coleman who is 32 years old and not playing much, so nothing to see with him)

It's still early of course.

Come April 2022, I'll have some real data. I captured everyone's ratings August 1, 2021. I have formulas that figure out the players overall rating for each role/duty, based on the key/important ratings the game shows. So I'll be able to get a better idea of how the in-house and loaned out players developed by age at that time.

[Joey Numbaz]

Another update. It's a few weeks later, November 21, 2021 now. I just got the media question. Earliest I can remember. I've already used 29 players this season in Premier League games and they are wondering if that's by design. Yes, yes it is.

I am going even more out of my way than usual to give U23s a chance to play, especially after the international breaks, when everyone is tired, and in our two league cup games so far.

I am not regretting selling Dolberg, see below. I am not too concerned with being 5th right now (we've finished 2-1-2 the last 3 years). We struggled for a few games against bad teams, but I tweaked (completely changed) the tactic and righted the ship. The key is that the kids are alright.

I mean we have to finish top 4, missing the Champions League would be a killer. But heck, we might finish 5th and win the Champions League. Pellegri is 20 and leads the league in scoring. His 8.55 through four games also makes him the highest rated player in the Champions League. My other striker Sandro is second at 8.00.

Sandro and Almamy Touré (our FBR/WBR) have been the best players in the Premier League by rating too. I am trying to build with youth, but the young right-fullbacks weren't ready, so I signed Touré for £17 million last year to bridge the gap from our captain Seamus Coleman to them, and it's worked out pretty well. He's the ++ player from the last post. He's gone from 3 stars to 4 since I signed him. And my AssMan is 20/20 JPA/JPP so I'm confident that's not a mirage.

We destroyed Barcelona in both games. The 4-0 game was the closer game. We outshot them 37-10 with 12 clear cut chances in the 2-0 win. Those two games are probably the best our team has ever played. EDIT - Uh, PSV just beat Barca 4-0. Maybe we aren't anything special ...

Here's our schedule. As I mentioned earlier, I switched tactics after a 1-4 loss to Leicester that punctuated that awful 15 day schedule I posted earlier. Which was a complete coincidence. I posted that before I had any clue it would be an awful run. I don't think the small roster and weak legs impacted it though. We just didn't play well.

So far, I don't think the small rosters have hurt me. But maybe? We are 1-1-1 after the international breaks, and we've only played @Bournemouth (0-2), @Brentford (2-0), @West Brom (1-1). That's pretty weak against three teams that aren't great. But hey - Bournemouth were dead last 0-0-3 when we played them and they've since gone 6-1-1, so who knows. Small sample sizes abound. We'll know a lot more come the middle of January.

[steakfaced]

42 minutes ago, Joey Numbaz said:

Another update. It's a few weeks later, November 21, 2021 now. I just got the media question. Earliest I can remember. I've already used 29 players this season in Premier League games and they are wondering if that's by design. Yes, yes it is.

I am going even more out of my way than usual to give U23s a chance to play, especially after the international breaks, when everyone is tired, and in our two league cup games so far.

I am not regretting selling Dolberg, see below. I am not too concerned with being 5th right now (we've finished 2-1-2 the last 3 years). We struggled for a few games against bad teams, but I tweaked (completely changed) the tactic and righted the ship. The key is that the kids are alright.

I mean we have to finish top 4, missing the Champions League would be a killer. But heck, we might finish 5th and win the Champions League. Pellegri is 20 and leads the league in scoring. His 8.55 through four games also makes him the highest rated player in the Champions League. My other striker Sandro is second at 8.00.

Sandro and Almamy Touré (our FBR/WBR) have been the best players in the Premier League by rating too. I am trying to build with youth, but the young right-fullbacks weren't ready, so I signed Touré for £17 million last year to bridge the gap from our captain Seamus Coleman to them, and it's worked out pretty well. He's the ++ player from the last post. He's gone from 3 stars to 4 since I signed him. And my AssMan is 20/20 JPA/JPP so I'm confident that's not a mirage.

We destroyed Barcelona in both games. The 4-0 game was the closer game. We outshot them 37-10 with 12 clear cut chances in the 2-0 win. Those two games are probably the best our team has ever played. EDIT - Uh, PSV just beat Barca 4-0. Maybe we aren't anything special ...

Here's our schedule. As I mentioned earlier, I switched tactics after a 1-4 loss to Leicester that punctuated that awful 15 day schedule I posted earlier. Which was a complete coincidence. I posted that before I had any clue it would be an awful run. I don't think the small roster and weak legs impacted it though. We just didn't play well.

So far, I don't think the small rosters have hurt me. But maybe? We are 1-1-1 after the international breaks, and we've only played @Bournemouth (0-2), @Brentford (2-0), @West Brom (1-1). That's pretty weak against three teams that aren't great. But hey - Bournemouth were dead last 0-0-3 when we played them and they've since gone 6-1-1, so who knows. Small sample sizes abound. We'll know a lot more come the middle of January.

12 CCC chances against any team is absolutely remarkable. I can't even manage that in pre-season friendlies against local small clubs. HAha. Which tactic are you on now?

[Joey Numbaz]

40 minutes ago, steakfaced said:

12 CCC chances against any team is absolutely remarkable. I can't even manage that in pre-season friendlies against local small clubs. HAha. Which tactic are you on now?

Yeah, I've been playing this game since FM2010 ... I've never had anything like that, even against a semi-pro team in a friendly. I was blown away. Here's the boxscore:

I still have 3 loaded. My tweak on the "Great Wall of Italia" (go to the Tactical Annals blog to find it, it's an old FM15 tactic), Ozil's 4141 from his Benfica thread (which I haven't used yet this season), but this one is the second season 4312 from the Benfica thread. When I'm struggling I have no issues with just dumping a new tactic in and seeing what happens. I've got a good team with versatile players. But I usually have to change some things. I am using this one as is. It's been unreal.

I mean look at this:

That being said, I think it requires really good center backs. When I play it with the youth teams, which have weak CBs (especially my U18s) it can give up goals over the top. This is especially an issue when I have to play the nothing special for U18 CBs in U23 games because I have no fit players because 37 are playing internationally or just returned. 

I'd add something from Cleon I read I few weeks ago. He talked about how he tweaks (once he has a system that works) and he mentioned the first thing he does it sub. Oversimplifying, but basically if he needs offense, he'll bring on a more offensive skilled player for a role. If he needs D, the opposite. I've started doing that. Up 2-0 at halftime? I interpreted it as, don't change to a park the bus tactic. Sub out your offensive minded midfielder for a destroyer. Move your all world do everything midfielder from the offensive role to the key defensive role and bring on a defensive minded midfielder for the other offensive one. The whole different players will interpret and play the same role differently thing. That kind of thinking has been really helpful and upped my game noticeably.