Unrealistic player performance

[Exius]

I'm playing in the Ukraininan 5th division (with a custom DB, of course). Since there are too few researched real players at this level, the game created a lot of newgens, so there are enough players in all teams. After half of the games in the league has been played, there is this guy with incredible stats (he scores 1 goal per match which is pretty high):

Of course I scouted him (maybe the game generated a wonderkind and I need to purchase him before any team from higher leagues spotted him). While he was scouted we had a match against his team. I tried to make everything possible to cut supply to him, but he scored anyway. I used my best DC to mark him specifically, and he still scored (it was a long ball from theirs defender and he ran past my defender to one-on-one with the keeper).

And then I got his scout report:

Just one star in current ability! I couldn't believe it. I thought my scouts were wrong (there are no good scouts in this division, all of them have poor judging abilities), so I used in-game editor to check his CA/PA. CA is 10, PA is 13. This is way too low even for such a low division (good CA is 50-70 at this level). How a guy witch such poor ability can perform so good??? It wasn't just one or two games, it wasn't a coincedence. He has been performing incredibly good for a half of the season (and maybe he will through the whole season). I don't get it. What's wrong with this game? Do attributes mean anything at all?

[CFuller]

You ask, "Do attributes matter", and you don't even show the guy's attributes - just a scout report that's only 44% complete. Maybe he's strong in some key areas or has good hidden attributes, but we have no way of telling from what you've given us.

Some players can perform way above their station for quite a while in the right team and the right system (conversely, some players can consistently underperform).

I can remember a time on FM13 when my team's top scorer was a bang-average striker who my coaches rated as having 0.5* Current Ability and reckoned was only a decent player for the division below. I reckon he scored a lot of goals that season, though, because he was fairly consistent and was well-suited to my team's tactics and style of play. Maybe that's what happening with the player you're talking about.

Also, the difference in quality between a 50 CA player and a 10 CA player isn't as huge as you seem to think it is. You're not comparing Luka Modric to a Sunday League player here. You're comparing a good 5th-division player to... probably a good 7th-division player who could still do a fine job two leagues higher with the right personality and attribute spread.

[herne79]

1 hour ago, Exius said:

What's wrong with this game? Do attributes mean anything at all?

Attributes mean a lot.  It's CA and (to a lesser extent) PA which don't mean anything.

Using an editor we can easily set up a player with a high CA who would be a worse performer on the pitch than a second player with a lower CA.  How?  By giving player A a dodgy set of attributes (visible and hidden) which wouldn't compliment how we'd want him to play.  Or take the guy with the highest CA in the game and play him as a goalkeeper, see how he gets on with his high CA but non-complimentary attributes then .

[WorcesterLegend]

Thats why you see players performing on certain teams and not in others you could buy the ballon d'or winner and he could get a sub 7.0 rating on your team because you play with say, a F9 and the guy is a better playing as a target man for mid/low table team due to counter/defensive tactics that use the targetman better add that to a near max tall player with 20 at jumping and strength with decent stats in all other stats and boom! A top scorer

[Exius]

8 hours ago, CFuller said:

You ask, "Do attributes matter", and you don't even show the guy's attributes - just a scout report that's only 44% complete. Maybe he's strong in some key areas or has good hidden attributes, but we have no way of telling from what you've given us.

 

8 hours ago, herne79 said:

Attributes mean a lot.  It's CA and (to a lesser extent) PA which don't mean anything.

OK, let's take a look at his attributes:

As you see, nothing extraordinary to explain such top performance. Yes, he has really good teamwork, aggression and work rate, but I got a couple players in my team with such good attributes as well, but they don't perform that good. He also has pretty good professionalism, but yet again, he's not the only one with such good attribute in the league. So, I still don't get what makes him to over-perform so greatly.

I checked all 10 goals he scored so far:

• 4 goals - similar to the one he scored to me - long ball from own half and one-on-one with the keeper (strange, considering his 9 and 8 acceleration and pace - my DC with 11 and 9 acceleration/pace couldn't catch him up);
• 3 goals - from crosses (he has 13 jumping reach, so this is realistic);
• 2 goals - terrible GK mistakes, saving a shot and punching the ball straight to him (questionable, considering his low anticipation and off the ball);
• 1 goal - direct free kick.

So, yet again, it seems attributes (acceleration and pace particularly) don't mean a lot. Is it possible that the game is scripted in such way that it chooses a random  player in a season and makes him over-perform no matter what his ability or attributes are?

[Svenc]

I'm wondering why the AI keeps on fielding his if his ability was this low. In either case, maybe it's the AI hitting upon an ME exploit for a Change, rather than vice versa.

(The Barca assistant Manager AI on ca. FM 2016ish consistently broke all-time La Liga scoring records employing Messi and co. as the Three Fishermen™ (Google if you don't get that Phrase).

That said, for as Long as Players on this game Keep up popping into space over and over, they'll eventually score. Doesn't matter who that Player is. This goes straight back to the first community "Diablo" tactics. At least in that sense FM apes Football Pretty well btw. --- according to Analytics, the Chance is far more important than the Player who has it. As for those spaces on offer, that's debatable. :P 

[WorcesterLegend]

hace 5 horas, Exius dijo:

 

OK, let's take a look at his attributes:

As you see, nothing extraordinary to explain such top performance. Yes, he has really good teamwork, aggression and work rate, but I got a couple players in my team with such good attributes as well, but they don't perform that good. He also has pretty good professionalism, but yet again, he's not the only one with such good attribute in the league. So, I still don't get what makes him to over-perform so greatly.

I checked all 10 goals he scored so far:

• 4 goals - similar to the one he scored to me - long ball from own half and one-on-one with the keeper (strange, considering his 9 and 8 acceleration and pace - my DC with 11 and 9 acceleration/pace couldn't catch him up);
• 3 goals - from crosses (he has 13 jumping reach, so this is realistic);
• 2 goals - terrible GK mistakes, saving a shot and punching the ball straight to him (questionable, considering his low anticipation and off the ball);
• 1 goal - direct free kick.

So, yet again, it seems attributes (acceleration and pace particularly) don't mean a lot. Is it possible that the game is scripted in such way that it chooses a random  player in a season and makes him over-perform no matter what his ability or attributes are?

You could say he has been lucky then, try play another season if the guy isn't sold or made bench warmer by thay point and see if the performance stays, it could be his dream season, i mean i remember back in fm17 that somehow the forward from the 20th in premier league was the top scorer with a 2 star CA and a normal stat spread (good, but not amazing, could be a decent 3rd choice for me) beating my world class forward that was better is most stats and have a very good stats spread after that season that random player got the same amount of goals of that golden season in the next 3 seasons added until he was buried in the championship

I mean, 2 or 3 points in pace/acceleration doesn't mean big smoke vs CJ in a race, it just that he was at the right place at the right time 3 goals are realistic due to height, 2 were gk errors, it can happen, free kicks are a gamble so that goal was like a bonus

4 other goals, lets say 2 of those are where defender have a similar or lower pace/acc, the 2 other could very well be the rngod being nice to that player

[CFuller]

6 hours ago, Exius said:

I checked all 10 goals he scored so far:

• 4 goals - similar to the one he scored to me - long ball from own half and one-on-one with the keeper (strange, considering his 9 and 8 acceleration and pace - my DC with 11 and 9 acceleration/pace couldn't catch him up);
• 3 goals - from crosses (he has 13 jumping reach, so this is realistic);
• 2 goals - terrible GK mistakes, saving a shot and punching the ball straight to him (questionable, considering his low anticipation and off the ball);
• 1 goal - direct free kick.

So, yet again, it seems attributes (acceleration and pace particularly) don't mean a lot. Is it possible that the game is scripted in such way that it chooses a random  player in a season and makes him over-perform no matter what his ability or attributes are?

Again, you're assuming that attributes don't mean a lot in FM because one player is overperforming. You'll find many examples of real-life players who've come out of (almost) nowhere and had sensational seasons. A few can sustain that form and become quality players, but most just drift back into obscurity.

FM takes so many factors into account when simulating matches. It's not just a case of "quicker defender beats slower midfielder", much like it's not a case of "striker with 20 Finishing always scores". Sometimes certain players can just get lucky/unlucky.

Also, any suggestion that FM is scripted in any way never goes down well around these parts, because - well - there's no evidence that it is. The game can't just suddenly decide that - for example - Adama Diakhaby is going to score 20+ Premier League goals, or that some mediocre Norwegian 3rd-division left-back is going to have the season of his life.

[Svenc]

3 hours ago, CFuller said:

Again, you're assuming that attributes don't mean a lot in FM because one player is overperforming. You'll find many examples of real-life players who've come out of (almost) nowhere and had sensational seasons. A few can sustain that form and become quality players, but most just drift back into obscurity.

Say hi to Alcacer regression towards the mean. https://statsbomb.com/2019/01/can-borussia-dortmund-win-the-bundesliga/
 

Also known around some parts as the Sports Illustrated COver Curse.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated_cover_jinx

If there's something About it (AI tactics "Breaking" the ME, etc.), it will be sustainable naturally. Same how the more popular tactical download Providers Keep farely sub-average Squads (and Forwards) scoring over and over again (with a Long-term consistency not even the top Teams in the most unbalanced leagues can do in ACTUAL Football ). If Forwards (in this game as well) Keep up popping into space over and over, they'll consistently Keep on scoring either way. The Chance matters far far more than whoever has it. Whilst the game lacks more intelligent data to present the actual Quality of a Chance to us; it would probably make it also too easy if it would…


If there's Nothing About it, the AI Manager will soon log in to report how his striker suddenly stopped scoring, and demand his Money back for this broken piece of game.  

[herne79]

10 hours ago, Exius said:

I checked all 10 goals he scored so far:

• 4 goals - similar to the one he scored to me - long ball from own half and one-on-one with the keeper (strange, considering his 9 and 8 acceleration and pace - my DC with 11 and 9 acceleration/pace couldn't catch him up);
• 3 goals - from crosses (he has 13 jumping reach, so this is realistic);
• 2 goals - terrible GK mistakes, saving a shot and punching the ball straight to him (questionable, considering his low anticipation and off the ball);
• 1 goal - direct free kick.

So, yet again, it seems attributes (acceleration and pace particularly) don't mean a lot. Is it possible that the game is scripted in such way that it chooses a random  player in a season and makes him over-perform no matter what his ability or attributes are?

So 4 out of his 10 goals then.  As you mention Pace, Pace is not 1 = snail, 20 = Usain Bolt.  It's on a scale (as are all attributes) of a football player, so just 1 is still going to be faster than the majority of us mere mortals. 

If the player in question has got the drop on a central defender from a long ball over the top, it's extremely unlikely that a difference of just 1 in acceleration and 2 in pace is going to be enough to allow your central defender to catch him.  The striker has a head start and he isn't going to be caught.  But as well as Pace and Acceleration in central defenders, other factors will include Positioning, Defensive Line and Pressing.  You also told your defender to mark him tightly.  But is your defender capable of marking tightly?  And even if he is, if he's that close to the striker then in a flash the striker could make a fake swerve and in a flash he'd be gone, leaving your defender flat footed and red faced.  So tight marking can work against you just as it can work in your favour.

[Exius]

OK, I agree with all of you - he has some decent attributes and a bit of luck. But there is no such thing as "pure" luck if we are talking about the game which is totally based on thousands of calculations. It's not a real life, it's all calculated and scripted in some way. I mean, what makes this particular player so lucky every game when he scores? He's not the best in terms of ability or attributes but he consistently got lucky to find himself in a position to score. So, I believe there should be some kind of script which makes player to perform well in several games in a row, which we can interpret as "luck".

By the way, after I posted this thread his luck ended - 4 more games and he didn't score.

It's funny, but I have a similar situation in my team as well. My 1.5 star striker has a great form in recent matches:

And he totally outperforms my 5 star striker, who is supposed to be a main star and goalscorer:

The 5 star one had a couple of bad games (missing 2 penalties in a single match), I fined him for poor performance and removed from first team. In the next match I gave a chance to the backup 1.5 star player in the starting lineup. He scored in the first game and became my first team player. Now he keeps scoring in every game. Of course I know, it won't last forever. It seems the key here is that he is pretty consistent performer, while the 5 star striker on the contrary is very inconsistent. I don't know how realistic it is in terms of their attributes, but the situation itself (backup player is given a chance and he fought to secure his place in the first team) is pretty realistic and it happens quite often IRL.

[WorcesterLegend]

hace 3 horas, Exius dijo:

OK, I agree with all of you - he has some decent attributes and a bit of luck. But there is no such thing as "pure" luck if we are talking about the game which is totally based on thousands of calculations. It's not a real life, it's all calculated and scripted in some way. I mean, what makes this particular player so lucky every game when he scores? He's not the best in terms of ability or attributes but he consistently got lucky to find himself in a position to score. So, I believe there should be some kind of script which makes player to perform well in several games in a row, which we can interpret as "luck".

By the way, after I posted this thread his luck ended - 4 more games and he didn't score.

It's funny, but I have a similar situation in my team as well. My 1.5 star striker has a great form in recent matches:

And he totally outperforms my 5 star striker, who is supposed to be a main star and goalscorer:

The 5 star one had a couple of bad games (missing 2 penalties in a single match), I fined him for poor performance and removed from first team. In the next match I gave a chance to the backup 1.5 star player in the starting lineup. He scored in the first game and became my first team player. Now he keeps scoring in every game. Of course I know, it won't last forever. It seems the key here is that he is pretty consistent performer, while the 5 star striker on the contrary is very inconsistent. I don't know how realistic it is in terms of their attributes, but the situation itself (backup player is given a chance and he fought to secure his place in the first team) is pretty realistic and it happens quite often IRL.

Thats what normally happens with that kind of players with low stats they can sometimes give you a lot of good games but once the first bad game appears its time to think about benching him happened to a youth player with 1.5 star played a superd game against a league 1 team, gave him a chance in the league against the second to last and performed greatly, i started to rotate him with my first team strikers he was near them in goal scored, after an awful 5.2 rating game from him near winter transfer window i loaned him, got a nice boost to 2.5 stars thanks to that performance but he wasn't quite ready for fist team regular football, he just shined a bit and got lucky (he is tall, but lacks pace/acc as the guy you mention) 

Anyway i do consider form for my team selection, a key player with a sub 6.8 rating in the last 5 games gets a 2 games in a row bench "fine" with a possible sub appearance in the second one, if his replacement does good he gets rotation treatment until replacement drops in performance or the key player starts performing over 7 rating 

[Domathon]

game feels super scripted .

[CFuller]

it's not unheard of in my team for a talented player to be upstaged by someone who - on pure technical and physical ability - is apparently inferior, yet is stronger in terms of mental attributes and personality.

In my current save, I loaned in a young 3.5* CA left-back (Player X) to displace a slightly older 2* CA left-back (Player Y). On the season preview page, Player X was so highly-rated that he was named in the division's Dream XI. However, he had an iffy start to the season, so Player Y took over again - and he went on to have a sensational year, consistently getting very high match ratings.

Looking at the players @Exius linked to in his previous post, I wouldn't necessarily pick Abelentsev over Fedorov if I was in his position. Without knowing the specific attribute numbers, I'm just making assumptions, but here's how I see it:

Abelentsev is a fine finisher and reasonably quick, yes, but the coach report throws up so many red flags. He abhors big matches, is selfish, is inconsistent, and is very uncomfortable on his left foot.

Fedorov can also finish too, even if his composure and physical abilities aren't all that impressive. I like his determination and work rate, though, not to mention his resolute personality and his reasonably high consistency. He's also decent on his left foot, which can help a lot in certain situations.

Technical and physical ability is important, but good mental attributes shouldn't be overlooked.

29 minutes ago, Domathon said:

game feels super scripted .

Would you like to add any more to that?

[warlock]

2 hours ago, Domathon said:

game feels super scripted .

And yet it's not scripted at all. Funny isn't it?

[JeffDogg]

In lower divisions it just doesn't mean much. You can have a guy destroying everything without being a beast. I've seen that a lot in english lower leagues. Plus it's just 10 games.