Winter slump is like a rule for my team... why?

[karabas15]

I'm managing a Vanarama North team, played four seasons with them so far. Every single season we start really well, often go top of table or near enough. Then once we get into the second half of the season, we hit a brick wall. No goals, defence falling apart. I'm usually lucky to take 10 points out of the next 15-20 games or so. And then, right before end of season, we go into beast mode again. Last two seasons this came in handy because the sudden good form at the end would be enough to get us just barely into the playoffs and then help us dominate in the knock-outs (despite playing away) and getting promoted.

Overall those are great results, but why the slump? I understand that other teams underestimate us at first and then adjust their expectations... but is there a way to prevent this?

I feel like I'd be more OK if our performance would be more varied throughout the season: we win some and we lose some throughout the season. But what always happens is that we win almost everything, then we lose almost everything, and then we start winning everything again.

[oblongata21]

Are you playing with the same tactic?

I hit a brick wall occasionally around the same time too. A while back one of the more experienced players told me that the AI will figure out how to combat your tactic/ tactics eventually, so you need to switch it up a bit towards the second half of the season. However, this also depends on how good your team is and how well they play your chosen tactics. Morale also plays a part. Lose 2 or 3 in a row, then it can have a follow on effect. Win 2 or 3 in a row and it may work positively.

I hope that helps, its all very complexed.

[Svenc]

It's not that complex. It's also not so much the AI figuring out your tactics.

It's that all Teams in FM have reputations to go by.

Simply put, at the start of a game, Manchester City are a big rep Team in the EPL. They are seen as  a top dog in their league. Bit like Football, eh? Should they drastically underperform in the first half of the Season, they slowly lose on Reputation. The vice versa happens if Teams would drastically overperform.

AI Managers gauge whether they're the favorite expected to win in a match, roughly even, or the Underdog expected to lose. This can be roughly gauged by the pre-match odds / previews for each match, btw. From this they make the decision what Kind of tactics they are going to Play. This is meant to simulate that say Burnley may not go all out attack at City -- not at the start anyway. 

At the start of the save, Manchester City will face a lot of defensive Teams. In case of the aforementioned underperformance, this would happen less and less. What you --- purely tactically --- would go through would then be Reputation Groundhog day. You rack the rep up by your great perfromance in the first half. Teams would Play less defensive during that period. After that, more and more Teams would figure you're the favourite to be cautious against, and Play accordingly. Then you would lose it again in the second due to your bad Performances, and the next Season the cycle starts anew. 

 

Assuming the root cause is purely tactical -- which is an assumption, mind -- your tactics would perform better against Teams playing expansive Football (you'd be gifted more breaks and Long balls over the top then), whilst struggling to break more bolstered defenses down sitting deeper.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Svenc