Players still retiring too young/declining too fast!

[RBKalle]

I detailed the issue in FM19 with great detail HERE

Unfortunately things doesn't seem to have improved at all in FM20...

Currently in July 2022 and a bunch of high-profile players aged 34-35 are already announced their retirement at the end of the season. Their physical skills have declined into single-digits (Pace/Acc 7-9) and no club has been making offers despite them still being technically good enough for one of the "Elephant Graveyard Leagues" or for a low-level club at top league.

Instead the likes of Di Maria, Modric, Khedira, Özil, Benatia and Marcelo (34yo, Pac/Acc 5, despite no long-time injuries) are free agents already on the way out, after having been signed on Free Transfer around age 32-33 (when their original contract expired I guess) and signed by third-tier clubs and not played much.

It's sad and frustrating to see nothing has been done to move the 34yo cutoff I reported one year ago... Few exceptions resist, but as soon as a player hits 33 AND his phyiscal stats drop a bit, he's doomed, in line for a sharp, unforgiving and unstoppable decline leading to an early retirement.

I'll provide more data in the coming days, but I've got a bad feeling I'm gonna just waste some hours to prove something I already proved 11 months ago, which has led nowhere anyway.

[sorrenmills]

Yup, just seen it with Neymar, albeit in FM17. His stats just dropped off a cliff to the point where I sold him to Tottenham(!) for a pittance. To be honest, I usually get rid of players at around the 32 year old mark but then again, I prefer to play young teams.

[bleventozturk]

1 hour ago, RBKalle said:

I detailed the issue in FM19 with great detail HERE

Unfortunately things doesn't seem to have improved at all in FM20...

Currently in July 2022 and a bunch of high-profile players aged 34-35 are already announced their retirement at the end of the season. Their physical skills have declined into single-digits (Pace/Acc 7-9) and no club has been making offers despite them still being technically good enough for one of the "Elephant Graveyard Leagues" or for a low-level club at top league.

Instead the likes of Di Maria, Modric, Khedira, Özil, Benatia and Marcelo (34yo, Pac/Acc 5, despite no long-time injuries) are free agents already on the way out, after having been signed on Free Transfer around age 32-33 (when their original contract expired I guess) and signed by third-tier clubs and not played much.

It's sad and frustrating to see nothing has been done to move the 34yo cutoff I reported one year ago... Few exceptions resist, but as soon as a player hits 33 AND his phyiscal stats drop a bit, he's doomed, in line for a sharp, unforgiving and unstoppable decline leading to an early retirement.

I'll provide more data in the coming days, but I've got a bad feeling I'm gonna just waste some hours to prove something I already proved 11 months ago, which has led nowhere anyway.

Since you seem to have done the research and comparison on this, how does the DB look about 10 years into the game, compared to the original one? You say 'a few exceptions resist', but isn't it the same in real life too? What percentage of those top tier players continue playing after 34? I am not countering what you are saying, I am just curious.

[bleventozturk]

These are the only players in premier over 34 in the original DB:

Jagielka (37) - Sheff Utd

Holebas (35) - Watford

Morgan (35) - Leicester

That's about it. Then there are about 10 of them between 32-34. So, it seems like 33-34 is the logical number IRL too. 

Edit: I guess you are more concerned about those players retiring rather than going down in league levels though, right? In that case I don't know.

Edited January 4, 2020 by bleventozturk

[Toshevbgg]

I get OP point

Truly exceptional players should be able to hold for longer periods if they are first team choices.

I mean Vardy at 32 is tearing in in EPL? Do you think he will fall of a cliff next year?

If Injury hits them I think they should decline but if they are professional personality and you play them regular they should be able to hit 34-35

 

And also I mean for example Marcelo will be able to play till he is 36-37 if he wants to . I got him at age 34 wtih Bolton.. He had 5 pace 6 stamina. Still scored 7 goals as LB...

I mean what was the name of the top scorer last year in Seria A Fabio Qua5945 at 37? Pizzaro is playing till 40 in bundesliga. Ibra is 38. Beckham was decent at Milan at 36/37.I mean even Iniesta and Xavi were good after 33/34 not toast .. Mandzukic was awesome last year at old age now he is benched cuz of Ronaldo.

[RBKalle]

34 minuti fa, bleventozturk ha scritto:

These are the only players in premier over 34 in the original DB:

Jagielka (37) - Sheff Utd

Holebas (35) - Watford

Morgan (35) - Leicester

That's about it. Then there are about 10 of them between 32-34. So, it seems like 33-34 is the logical number IRL too. 

Nope...

You missed a lot of players born between '83 and '85, even disregarding the abundance of older keepers.

The likes of Milner, Silva and Fernandinho in FM20 would be already completely useless instead of being good EPL players like IRL.

 

34 minuti fa, bleventozturk ha scritto:

Edit: I guess you are more concerned about those players retiring rather than going down in league levels though, right? In that case I don't know.

I'm concerned because players decline too quickly and it's bad for leagues like Serie A where older players are still performing at a high level way past the dreaded 34.

Basically any player already on the slow side in the original DB won't make it past 33 as a useful top-level player, getting released and declining even more before retiring way too early.

[FrazT]

@RBKalle This and your previous thread are good reads and you work is appreciated.  It was mentioned by SI in the last thread, that it would be best to present the figures in the Bugs forum with some relevant saves and they could at least have something to work on. Have you raised this in there?

[Cal585]

I'm not sure how it works in practice but I'd like to see it dynamic. In that once they're past a certain age then chances of injury increase drastically and then that is what nukes the physical stats.  But I do remember that older players in the DB tend to be a lot more physical able than those who age in-game. Which is something that could definitely be improved.

[RBKalle]

14 ore fa, FrazT ha scritto:

@RBKalle This and your previous thread are good reads and you work is appreciated.  It was mentioned by SI in the last thread, that it would be best to present the figures in the Bugs forum with some relevant saves and they could at least have something to work on. Have you raised this in there?

I'll gladly run a test save. (and maybe I still have the old fm19 files).

 

Is there an ideal setup in terms of dB size and active leagues?

I'd go with Top5 leagues (plus Championship and Serie B, a notorious hunting ground for "old men"). Large DB. Possibly loading all top division players in Europe but I'm afraid it'll saturate the market making retirement more likely.

 

Also should I keep rolling saves every year/sex months?

Edited January 4, 2020 by RBKalle

[FrazT]

Personally I am not sure what the best setup and save schedule would be ideal- why not open a preliminary thread in the Bugs forum outlining the problem and ask for guidance form the developers as to what kind of save to run?

[Piperita]

My experience so far is that a big problem is the AI too quickly abandoning aging players who in turn feel useless and decide to retire on a high note.

An example: Playing with the editor, I saw how quickly Salomon Kalou's values sank but he still performed and played regularly (in fact his time even increased with age) and so he kept active quite a while.

But when I reloaded an older save and benched him the first half of the season, only giving him 20-minute subs, he announced his retirement for summer. Reloading an even older file, he announced his retirement directly after I either blocked an Arabian deal or that one ended. 

Other problems might be that together with old players quickly being abandoned that one of two things happens quite often:

A) They do not necessarily downgrade their expectations with age (e.g. By becoming leaders for 'lesser' teams). When they can't be star players at the best teams, they simply have no interest in playing any longer at all. 

B) Lower teams (or the calculated strength for most positions) value physicals a lot more than mentals, resulting in great players being underevaluated for the AI.

Coming back to Kalou: He was literally winning me Champion's league titles with precise passes but being down to a measly 104 CA he was considered a good Third League player at best — When I made myself manager at lower second-league teams and arranged for a deal, Kalou was interested and had some surprisingly decent demands for his services. But when I offered him for real, there was little interest and when I forced a transfer, not only were the receiving team's fans and managers angry, he also was very quickly benched...

[6Times]

Did you consider natural fitness for the speed of players?

 

I have had players still have decent pace with 18-20 natural fitness. Did you take these into account?

[Toshevbgg]

47 minutes ago, Piperita said:

My experience so far is that a big problem is the AI too quickly abandoning aging players who in turn feel useless and decide to retire on a high note.

An example: Playing with the editor, I saw how quickly Salomon Kalou's values sank but he still performed and played regularly (in fact his time even increased with age) and so he kept active quite a while.

But when I reloaded an older save and benched him the first half of the season, only giving him 20-minute subs, he announced his retirement for summer. Reloading an even older file, he announced his retirement directly after I either blocked an Arabian deal or that one ended. 

Other problems might be that together with old players quickly being abandoned that one of two things happens quite often:

A) They do not necessarily downgrade their expectations with age (e.g. By becoming leaders for 'lesser' teams). When they can't be star players at the best teams, they simply have no interest in playing any longer at all. 

B) Lower teams (or the calculated strength for most positions) value physicals a lot more than mentals, resulting in great players being underevaluated for the AI.

Coming back to Kalou: He was literally winning me Champion's league titles with precise passes but being down to a measly 104 CA he was considered a good Third League player at best — When I made myself manager at lower second-league teams and arranged for a deal, Kalou was interested and had some surprisingly decent demands for his services. But when I offered him for real, there was little interest and when I forced a transfer, not only were the receiving team's fans and managers angry, he also was very quickly benched...

Yeah AI just destroys players ..

In my save Morata is golden booth winner and twice second.. At his season age 30-31 he scored 22 games (top scorer spain). Next season he plays only 10 games benched now he is not even in their group.. So from club legend and best striker in game (not really) they just cut ties with him like he is piece of crap

[bleventozturk]

On 03/01/2020 at 19:03, RBKalle said:

Nope...

You missed a lot of players born between '83 and '85, even disregarding the abundance of older keepers.

The likes of Milner, Silva and Fernandinho in FM20 would be already completely useless instead of being good EPL players like IRL.

 

I'm concerned because players decline too quickly and it's bad for leagues like Serie A where older players are still performing at a high level way past the dreaded 34.

Basically any player already on the slow side in the original DB won't make it past 33 as a useful top-level player, getting released and declining even more before retiring way too early.

I browsed through the teams in 5 major divisions and their subdivisions in my test save, and I think you are right. I did not do an in-depth analysis like the one you did, just eye test, and I also observed that ALL players decline so fast between 32-34, and almost none of them make it to 35 or after. Although the declining model should be like this for most players, I agree that a smaller percentage (?) of players should decline slower and still be useful players in top leagues in their mid 30ies, and very rarely even at 37-40. And some of the faster declining players should be interested in playing in lower divisions so that they can remain active into their late 30ies. A few years into my test save, other than Messi (37) and James Milner (38), there are no players above 35, even in lower leagues. There are many at 32-34, but you can tell that they are all declining very fast and climb down the league ladder in consecutive seasons very rapidly.

It is not a game breaker probably, but I agree that the model could be easily improved.

Edited January 5, 2020 by bleventozturk

[cheny]

2 hours ago, 6Times said:

Did you consider natural fitness for the speed of players?

 

I have had players still have decent pace with 18-20 natural fitness. Did you take these into account?

But then take a look at Joaquin. He only has a natural fitness of 11 but he’s speed/acceleration is 14. And he’s 38. I don’t think this is replicable in FM as the save progresses. 

[bleventozturk]

The last time I had a long save was with FM17, and aging was a bit slower in that game, I think it was just right. I wonder why they switched from that.

[quee]

Very rarely we can break the oldest appearance and goalscorer record anymore compared to older CM/FM  If the record is at 40+ years old, I would say no chance.

Whilst there shouldn't be 100s of players playing into their 40s, there should be some playing at the highest level.

[RBKalle]

10 ore fa, Piperita ha scritto:

My experience so far is that a big problem is the AI too quickly abandoning aging players who in turn feel useless and decide to retire on a high note.

That's a fair point, but then we'd have to open a different can of worms regarding Reputation.

I've seen too how declining players get released by Top Clubs around age 32-33, move to a smaller league (Turkey, Portugal etc) where they get immediately benched and after two seasons, by age 34-35, their physical stats have collapsed and they decide to retire.

In truth, they'd still have been more useful to their final club, but it's a bad combo of free-falling attributes and sinking reputation earlier on. Basically they're doing at 32 what they'd do at 35.

10 ore fa, 6Times ha scritto:

Did you consider natural fitness for the speed of players?

I did in FM19, alongside Professionalism and Ambition.

They play a marginal role, but in the end the only truly meaningful figure was that after only five seasons, there were NO active players over 37 except Cristiano Ronaldo (and two randos in lower divisions). A drop of 68% of the >35 population can't be chalked up to poor NatFit or to any other single attribute. It's a systemic problem.

Take a look at the graphs in the opening post and in the one further down... There's no way around it, FM19 simply "killed" players at age 35, following two-three years of sharp and universal physical decline, with zero regard for players' physical or mental resiliency. Injury-prone slacker or super-healthy model professional, Acc/Pac fell off a cliff from age 32-33 anyway.

8 ore fa, bleventozturk ha scritto:

It is not a game breaker probably, but I agree that the model could be easily improved.

It's not a game-breaker because the game churns out great newgens at the usual impressive rate (despite what the "I only got 2 3.5*PA players in my Bolton intake, the game sucks!" brigade will tell).

So if you play at a reasonably good level, newgens and free agents (AI still doesn't seem to handle contract renewals and Bosman-players that well) will allow you to improve your team massively without needing to resort to aging stars and "he'd been a coup 3 years ago" deals.

But it's a problem if you manage in second/third-tier nations. IRL landing a 36yo former Top Name for your side in a smaller nation or down the pyramid would be great business for experience, visibility and added value. Also, no matter how slow, a technically and mentally superior player can still make a difference among banana-footed folks.
In FM though, you'll be better off playing an average dude whose highest attribute is 12 but is physically passable than a former Top Player with >14 Mental and Technical skills but with lethargic physical ones.

 

Could it be improved? Yes

Easily? Hmmmmm, nothing in FM is "easy" by definition...

The decline model isn't probably as easy as we think, and it ties in with reputation and CA.

[RBKalle]

15 ore fa, FrazT ha scritto:

Personally I am not sure what the best setup and save schedule would be ideal- why not open a preliminary thread in the Bugs forum outlining the problem and ask for guidance form the developers as to what kind of save to run?

Other gameplay section?

Or Transfers and Contracts, as it's also partially related to Top Clubs binning declining players too easily...

[FrazT]

Other gameplay, probably

[6Times]

On 04/01/2020 at 18:41, cheny said:

But then take a look at Joaquin. He only has a natural fitness of 11 but he’s speed/acceleration is 14. And he’s 38. I don’t think this is replicable in FM as the save progresses. 

At the beginning of the game?

 

This is set by game developers/scouts. Where did you get these numbers? A few years into the save?

 

Here is CR7 a few years in. He is 36 years old, with 20 natural fitness set by devs. NO custom data.

 

To compare, here is Modric. He is the same age, but with 13 nat fitness.

 

 

[LokiValfar]

Compare that Ronaldo to my 38 year old Ronaldo:



He still played regularly for Juve 49/1, 46/3, 28/1 (Hip Injury, 2 months out in Feb 2020), 44/3 in his final season with Juve before his contract expired.  His stats have dropped somewhat this season as all I've been giving him is what he wants (Impact Sub) with the occasional start (we drew Juve in the Champions League lol) and now he's got a Lower Back Stress Fracture.  He's announced his retirement, but I've asked him to reconsider so hopefully he'll change his mind and I can see his stats tank some more.

Only player I've seen who has decided "that's it I'm going out at the top" was Guiseppe Rossi and he only retired because his snapped his ACL again.

[JR_Junior]

I really support this thread!

I love this game but this one of the areas that has been bugging me since I started playing this game. I think a better balance for the decline of aging players would highly improve a lot of things in the game. For example: it would make clearer for healthy/professional players to have longer careers compared to unprofessional/injury prone players. It could make hierarchy and tutoring even better as it would add incentive to have older players in your squad that can actually play games and produce.

I understand some of the problems, like getting the DB too big with too many players not retiring, but I think a better balance could be achieved by the great people that make this game.

It feels like acceleration, agility, strength and speed will start to drop indefinitely at some point regardless of other factors, the player will just drop to ridiculous low attributes. I think the declining rate should be lower for the "regular players" and I'd argue that lower the attribute is, the lower should be the decline, a "diminishing return" of some sorts. Even if they retire a bit earlier than IRL if they're not getting game time, they should retire with better attributes.

I don't want a bunch of Joaquins but I want the possibility of having good players playing at age of 35-37 and still producing and contributing to the team, which feels impossible in the game right now.

Anyway, I really hope they can continue to improve this area of the game. As a person that usually play outside of the top 5 leagues, this is a issue that really gets me sometimes.

Edited January 8, 2020 by JR_Junior

[RBKalle]

Ronaldo is an exception because in the starting db he's still among the Top5 players, with top-notch physical attributes and high CA. Of course his decline will be slower, not because of NatFit or other mental traits, but simply because he's falling from a higher place.

A countdown from 20 will take longer than one from 12... as easy as that.

Anyway, based on ancedotal evidence in my current save, older Top-Level players do seem to get a bit more mileage off their careers compared to FM19, but only just. And physically they're all breaking down starting at 32 anyway.
Reputation helps them to find a club once their time at a Top Club is over but once they hit single-digits in Acc/Pac, you know they're done for.

Going by my test save, at least the game still retains more players than it used to be, with a decrease of around 30% in the over 35 population. (a stellar improvement from the depressing -68% of FM19). It's yet to be seen how many of those older gentlemen are still useful in the gameworld and how many are simply sticking around despite needing a scooter to move around the pitch.

At first glance, the amount of >36 players with Acc/Pac <5 is huge... so we're maybe the problem has been only partially solved... And, I daresay, from the wrong end of the matter... A 38yo shouldn't still be around "just because" if his attributes would have justify calling it quits one or two years ago. A 38yo should still be around IF he's still a valuable player at a decent level.

[Norfair]

This is something I've always thought was an important enough issue for SI to step up and fix. It's one of those things that's not a game breaker, but if done properly it would give players that little bit more specific personality and that's important for all managers who tend to stick to one long-term save. IRL you'll always have the odd player here and there performing even when he's 35+ and obviously FM should mirror this better than it currently does. The way it is now you're more or less forced to sideline a star player at 33-34 because his decline in physical attributes will be too severe.

[LokiValfar]

I've just noticed it start to happen with one of my players...  But here's the thing, it's a Goalkeeper (David De Gea to be precise)...

At the age of 33 a gk's stats shouldn't start to tank.  This also seemed to coincide with him retiring from international duty to "elongate his club career".  He best not get much worse as in FM19 I had him still as my first choice until his retirement at the age of 39!

Also noticed, Harry Maguire's stats are also starting to drop dramatically and he's only 31 o_0