Full season tactical analysis (tactics, goals)

[Nikola75]

Following from two recent threads, where I was asking for help for my unsuccessful Bologna campaign, I restarted the game with the same club, trying to be more careful about tactical approach and spend more time with it. 

https://community.sigames.com/topic/516742-which-match-data-stats-to-look-at-to-find-why-tactic-doesnt-work

https://community.sigames.com/topic/516383-unable-to-recognize-tactical-problems-help-needed-bologna-4-1-2-3

The season started good, I even spent some time in top 5, but 31 games into the season, after two series of bad results (first 3D and 4L and then straight 7L) I am back to 12th position, same as in the previous save. I have watched every match for 15 minutes in full, tried to make some tweaks and then continued with comprehensive highlights... I am now devastated that hours of working on tactics did not produce any results! How is this possible? Is it that I am completely blind? Or is FM tactical side more luck then hard work? 

I wanted to take time and analyze what was going. First, I listed all the results in the season and tried to find out how tactics affected them. Here is the first tactic, which I used in 18 matches, with small changes and tweaks. 

 

• 5W, 5D, 8L (1.11 pts/game).
• 31 clear+half chances (1,72/gm) against 34 (1,89) of the opponent
• I played it 6 times in home games (1W, 2D, 3L - 0,83 points per game) and chances were abysmal: only 8 chances produced in total (against 11)
• Tactics faced? I did not learn much from this.
  • Most of the time, I faced 532wb (or variant): 3W, 2D, 3L (21:14 chances).
  • 4123 in 3 matches (0-2-1, chances 1:1 in total).
  • Against 4312, I played twice, 1W and 1L (chances 2:9!). Is at least this giving me some insight? Don't use 4123 against 4312? 

True, I've used this formation against stronger opponents, but still the result is quite poor, especially after surprising wins against Juventus and Inter using this tactic at the beginning of the season.

The second tactic I used was 4231 - it looked something like this most of the time for 13 matches. 

• 6W, 1D, 6L (1,46 pts/game). It seems this was all-or-nothing approach, I either win or lose
• 34 chances (2,61 per game) against 26 of the opponent (2,00)
• Home games: 5-1-4 (1,6 pts/game), 32:19 in chances created 
• Tactics faced? 
  • It seems that this does not work against 4231 (6:11 in chances). Something to do with AMC and lack of DMC in my tactics? 
  • 41212 (diamong), 12:6 in chances. Obviously my wingers and full backs are able to use space available there? 

However, I used this tactic in 10 home matches and only 3 away ones. I also used it against similar or weaker teams, so more efficiency might not mean anything. Also, I lost two home games against relegation teams recently.

As I was not able to learn much from here, I went to phase 2 - I made a list of all the goals through the season and how they were scored. Second post will be about that. 

 

[Nikola75]

As just comparing tactics did not help, I went through highlights of 31 matches and made a list how goals were scored. This finally gave me some concrete information which I could work on.

First, how goals were scored. 

• Shots 10-16m:     Bologna 9 : opponent 8
• Headers 5m:        7 : 3
• Headers 8m+:      7 : 12 (!)
• penalties:              5 : 3
• Shots 5-10m:        4 : 5
• 1-1 counter:          3 : 4
• long shots:            2 : 5 (!)
• running into space:   2 : 3

Scoring:

• I was surprised that only 3 goals came from clear 1-1 chances from a counter-attack. Having a quick attackers and trying to focus on breakaway attacks from the defense, this should be more? 
• Headers are surprising effective despite not having tall attackers. For most of the season I used "whipped" crosses. Also, all 7 of my 8m+ headers were scored by wingers (IF or W)

Defending:

• We are doing poor job closing long shots. I presume higher defensive line would help, but I already conceived 7 from counters and through balls. Would only always closing down AMC/MC be good enough?
• Most goals I conceived from long headers. Defensive tight marking or higher defensive line again? 

Even more helpful was to look what preceded the goal itself.

• Def error or rebound:    Bologna 2 : opponent 2
• DR/DL crosses:                6 : 12
• AML/AMR crosses:          11 : 4
• Free kick crosses:            3 : 7
• From corners:                  3 : 2
• Through ball:                   6 : 5
• Pass into space:              2 : 3
• Solo dribbling:                0 : 6

Scoring: 

• Obviously, my wingers are the main threat, so I should focus on using them even more in next season
• Why there were no solo actions to produce goals? Most of my dribblers are robbed away the ball when they come into the box. They are not so bad in dribbling attributes
• Through ball is the real threat. 6 of those were scored by wingers running into empty space. Maybe I can move-into-channels even more? How to tell my midfielders to pass low and look for such opportunities?

Defending (or the lack of it?): 

• Defending crosses from the free kicks is the real problem. I have focused on adjusting defending corners set-up and this helped, but will need to focus on FKs as well
• DR/DL crosses are the biggest problems - more in the third post. 
• When looking at highlights, I once again concluded that my FBs are left alone versus 2 players (W & FB). Should my wingers man-mark specific player all the time? I have tried closing them down and tight-marking them, with no good results 
• Opponents' dribblings are big problems, my players don't seem to be able to stop them sometimes. Should I tell them to get stuck in or would tight marking help here as well? 

Am I thinking in the right directions? Any other ideas guys?

    

 

 

[Nikola75]

And finally, I wanted to solve the problem with opposing DL/DR actions. Here are some goals which are showing problems with closing opposing full-backs.

Here, the opposing DR (16) is running into the space, while my winger (36) stays very wide, wondering. The unopposed cross to Ronaldo's head and that is it. Why is my winger staying up (he has Wsu role)? Why does not he follow? And should my And MC (16) be lower to help and close this hole? My DMC (17) is too deep, he is not helping in this situation at all. 

   

 

Second example, their DL (8) is getting  high up, with my DR (2) getting there to stop him. Everything ok so far, but my guy is not close enough to stop the cross. He is standing near but doing nothing. What is worse, Inter's DR (33) is quickly running into the box from the far away, while my DL (35) and WL (36) are not doing anything to stop his run. He is heading it into my goalkeeper's right corner. Should I defend wider? Or get my left winger to man-mark full-backs which are so adventurous like this one? 

    

       

Third example, similar situation. First, what should I do for my right winger (7) to stop opposing DL (12)? He just ran there and flew by him. Should he close down less or get tackle easier PI? Their DL is alone, again, crossing the ball to the far right, where opposing DR (19) is making similar run as above and scoring an easy shot. 

       

 

So, I am thinking along:

• putting both my wingers on man-mark specific player
• playing wider defense
• my DR and DL should get tight-marking instructions
• opposing DL and DR should get always close down opposition instructions

Stopping these kind of goals would probably mean 8-10 points more in the season.

    

[s1111]

3 hours ago, Nikola75 said:

 

The season started good, I even spent some time in top 5, but 31 games into the season, after two series of bad results (first 3D and 4L and then straight 7L) I am back to 12th position, same as in the previous save. I have watched every match for 15 minutes in full, tried to make some tweaks and then continued with comprehensive highlights... I am now devastated that hours of working on tactics did not produce any results! How is this possible? Is it that I am completely blind? Or is FM tactical side more luck then hard work? 

I wanted to take time and analyze what was going. First, I listed all the results in the season and tried to find out how tactics affected them. Here is the first tactic, which I used in 18 matches, with small changes and tweaks. 

 

If you are losing 7 games in a row after doing well most of the season the problem probably isn't tactical, it's managing morale and motivation through team talks, press conferences, player chats, team meetings when you lose a game or two. The problem I see many people have is that they get obsessed with the tactical side of the game at the expense of the rest of it. If you are Bologna then finishing in the top half in the first season is an excellent result, they are predicted 15th I think. Unless you are using a game breaking tactic or signing a whole new squad of cheap wonderkids in the first two transfer windows (which you are not doing) you are never going to finish any higher than about 7th.  If you manage morale and motivation better in those 7 games you maybe get 7-10 extra points, which I'm guessing moves you well into the top half from 12th. So my advice is stop obsessing over the tactical minutiae which may not make any difference anyway and look after the rest of the game because tactically you're fine.

[Nikola75]

9 minutes ago, s1111 said:

If you are losing 7 games in a row after doing well most of the season the problem probably isn't tactical, it's managing morale and motivation through team talks, press conferences, player chats, team meetings when you lose a game or two. The problem I see many people have is that they get obsessed with the tactical side of the game at the expense of the rest of it. If you are Bologna then finishing in the top half in the first season is an excellent result, they are predicted 15th I think. Unless you are using a game breaking tactic or signing a whole new squad of cheap wonderkids in the first two transfer windows (which you are not doing) you are never going to finish any higher than about 7th.  If you manage morale and motivation better in those 7 games you maybe get 7-10 extra points, which I'm guessing moves you well into the top half from 12th. So my advice is stop obsessing over the tactical minutiae which may not make any difference anyway and look after the rest of the game because tactically you're fine.

Yes, you could be right. I am trying to hold it together (except I am not going to press conferences), but morale is not high after losing few in the row. There are few of old players with high influence who are not satisfied with "depth of the squad", Soriano wants new big contract (already the highest paid player and not showing for it) and this seems to rub into the others...

Still, I would love to spend some time fixing those wingbacks cutting in and crossing to the other side.