How to deal with Dec/Feb drop of form?

[Riven]

I think this is a common problem for the FM community, at least for the less experienced tacticians like me.

Doesn't matter what team I am or what system Im using (althought I usually go with a really simple 4-1-4-1), team form just drops off massively between december and february. I obviously did not expect to win all games in the league (that would be really boring) but I want to know what to do to solve that mistake, cause all the seasons are the same for me. I read somewhere on the forums that when this happens its because the IA start to be more conservative to you / takes you more seriously. So my questions are:

1) What did you do when this happens? Just a simple change of roles, be a little more attacking, a little bit conservative...
2) Can it be a morale / overconfidence problem? Maybe im overlooking into tactics and all they need is a good team talk or interact with the players to wake them up... (im thinking its a combination of both but still wanna hear what you guys do in the cases).

[Guest]

That's pretty normal, AI learn you and trying to exploit you.

Maybe you need to switch tactic for 5-6 matches and then back again to your normal tactic, trying to confuse AI.

[JEinchy]

The issue can be two-fold:

1. AI changing their mentality in games against you, and sometimes adjusting their formation;
2. Complacency coming from a wining run.

In the first case, the AI may use a Cautious mentality instead of a Balanced or Positive one. When they do, they tend to keep the ball better because they're taking fewer risks. This makes 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1 trickier to play against due to their midfield numbers. If you're playing an aggressive, high-tempo system, you may end up with less of the ball than normal, less play in the opposition half and more bodies for your attackers to play through. This is why teams find scoring harder.

Meanwhile, while the AI won't create as many chances because of the lower mentality, it's more careful usage of the ball can help craft high quality chances. They can put together some impressive passing moves. Of course, aggressive systems are always vulnerable to counters and an AI Advanced Forward will exploit this on occasion. 

The solution isn't to change tactics entirely, or to "confuse" the AI. It's to tweak your Team Instructions if Plan A isn't working.

• Attacking Width. Wide will see more balls to the flanks and crosses. If the opposition have good defenders who can head the ball well, is crossing going to be that effective? Maybe trying narrower attacking width will work better against them. On the other hand, teams with poor defenders who can't deal with crosses well can be vulnerable to teams who play with more width. 
• Tempo. Higher tempo can hit teams fast and early, but it can also rush the play. Your attackers may take shots from poor positions because they're trying to do everything quickly. Sometimes, slowing down, waiting for a good run to be made, and making more considered decisions are the way to break a team down. If you're playing too slowly, then increasing the tempo can help.
• Line of Engagement. High LoE is common for pressing teams but if the opposition can't come out, there's less space for your attackers. Sometimes, easing off the high pressing to let the opposition out of their defensive third helps create space. Let them out, win it back in midfield, then attack the space afterwards.
• Counter-Pressing. Similar to above, do you need to be putting the opposition under pressure all the time? If they're poor on the ball, they'll give it back to you regardless. Sometimes, it's better to let them have it and make a mistake on their own than to force the mistake. 

Sometimes, the issue isn't even tactical. 

Mid-season is when the fixture list gets busier, so you rotate more. But are the players you're rotating in right for the roles they've been given? Are they as effective in your tactic as the first choice? This can lead to a reduction in performance. If this is the case, you have to be careful about your rotation policy and ensure your key players are fit for the right games. 

Complacency is also an issue. Winning breeds over-confidence and your team talks/press conferences contribute to that. If you praise every win, morale goes up but effort goes down. If you lay into a team after every under-performance, the message becomes less effective. Varying your team talks and press conference responses can really help. If I'm on a winning run, I often say nothing at all and let the morale do the work for me. If we're under-performing, I might encourage instead of criticise. Or say nothing and let them sort it out on their own (you'd be surprised how often that works; sometimes your team is just unlucky in a game and needs a bit of time to correct it). Playing against a minnow you expect to beat? You can use Assertive or even Aggressive tones to get that point across.

How effective team-talks are depends on your starting eleven, too. Players who haven't played often can be more determined to prove a point. Young or out-of-form players can be more nervous and need encouragement. Telling a winning team to not be complacent for the next game can work when you're a few wins into a winning run.

So there's lots you can do to change it up, without having to completely reinvent the wheel. Even then, you can opt to do nothing. Sometimes, your team just goes through a blip but if your team, tactics and management are all good, things tend to right themselves with time. 

[Incubus1989]

After watching a lot of bustthenet videos on YouTube  (which are just genius) I tried changing roles slightly in games to help with this. Create different overloads, force space to open up and getting players to exploit it.

 

For example switching a CM(a) to a Mezz(a) in my 4141 in certain games helped drag the opposition around more giving my other CM time and chance to pick more dangerous passes. 

 

It can really be the subtle little tweaks when you hit a slump that make big differences rather than massive, wholesale changes.

[HUNT3R]

21 hours ago, Cadoni said:

That's pretty normal, AI learn you and trying to exploit you.

Maybe you need to switch tactic for 5-6 matches and then back again to your normal tactic, trying to confuse AI.

This doesn't happen. The AI doesn't learn your tactic. They adjust based on how strong they perceive your club to be. So they'll go more attacking or more defensive. It's based on things like club rep, player rep, league position and form, among others. Nothing specific and changing your tactic won't confuse the AI because it wasn't trying to counter the tactic to start with. There's usually a re-assessment around the halfway mark of the season (and also in the off season) where teams change their approach. That's why users often start encountering issues around December/January.

[Djuicer]

This by @optimusprimal82 has some food for thought.

[Guest]

10 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

This doesn't happen. The AI doesn't learn your tactic. They adjust based on how strong they perceive your club to be. So they'll go more attacking or more defensive. It's based on things like club rep, player rep, league position and form, among others. Nothing specific and changing your tactic won't confuse the AI because it wasn't trying to counter the tactic to start with. There's usually a re-assessment around the halfway mark of the season (and also in the off season) where teams change their approach. That's why users often start encountering issues around December/January.

AI have analyst & scout reports as me. 

How do you know that don't learn my tactic?

I can see his/her choice of roles to his/her tactics, so can do the same.

[HUNT3R]

3 minutes ago, Cadoni said:

AI have analyst & scout reports as me. 

How do you know that don't learn my tactic?

I can see his/her choice of roles to his/her tactics, so can do the same.

SI confirmed this many times in the past.

[jozza800]

11 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

This doesn't happen. The AI doesn't learn your tactic. They adjust based on how strong they perceive your club to be. So they'll go more attacking or more defensive. It's based on things like club rep, player rep, league position and form, among others. Nothing specific and changing your tactic won't confuse the AI because it wasn't trying to counter the tactic to start with. There's usually a re-assessment around the halfway mark of the season (and also in the off season) where teams change their approach. That's why users often start encountering issues around December/January.

This I understand when you're an underdog and you play counter attacking football. Makes perfect sense.

What I dont understand is when it happens when you already play against defensive teams.

I can feel the slump coming in my current save. I'd just gone top of the league after a good run of games. Scoring 3s and 4s against defensive teams. Then suddenly I've scored 2 goals in my last 3 games one of which was a nervy 1-0 at home against the bottom side. And with a couple of away games to come, I just know that the collapse is coming.

[HUNT3R]

6 hours ago, jozza800 said:

What I dont understand is when it happens when you already play against defensive teams.

You say 'already defensive' as if you're either defensive or you're not. There are a hundred shades of grey between defensive and attacking. There may even be a hundred between defensive and very defensive.

I could decide at the start of the season to be defensive against the top 5 or 6 teams as they stand a little taller than the rest. When it comes to playing (for example) Man City, I look at their form over the last 20 matches and I see they are just rolling over everyone and only drawn a single game with no losses. That puts me into 'holy crap, batten down the hatches' mode and I'll be even more defensive than I usually would have been, just because they're not only Man City, but also because of their form.

There's switching from Defensive to Very Defensive. Or maybe a more defensive formation. Or you use one Attack Duty less or one Support Duty less. Maybe a defensive line or LoE a notch lower? More compact, narrower, etc. Many ways to be more or less defensive in an already defensive setup.

It does get to a point where teams cannot make more changes to be more cautious against you though.