Can someone explain why i cant win a game all of a sudden

[mushmushmush]

I started a new career with Woking, things were going well and i was at 2nd in the league, but something has changed and now it seems like the computer refuses to let me win a game. The last few games my XG has been so much higher and the other team always draw. I endlessly have goals disallowed, or hit the post or miss 1 v 1. 

2 games ago my XG was 3.5 vs 0.41 and the score was 3-3 

This has happened for the last 8 games. Where my XG has been at least 1.0 higher and i cant win. 

This does not seem like a tactical issue, im not sure how this game works to make things more competitive, but it feels like the game via offsides, disallowed goals, and letting the other team score with 0.08 XG vs my 1.40 when i cant that its just a cheap way of making it harder to win. 

By all means if there is something im doing wrong tactically please let me know, Id understand if it was a few games of bad form. But 8 games of clearly having far better XG and not winning one game is a little strange. 

[mushmushmush]

as an update i played another game and my xg was 1.04 vs 0.16 they scored with the last highlight of game and won 1-0

i just quit without saving which i hate to do but i feel this is just stupid at this point.

[robot_skeleton]

How are you playing? What is your tactic?

Edited April 2, 2021 by robot_skeleton

[Experienced Defender]

12 hours ago, mushmushmush said:

By all means if there is something im doing wrong tactically please let me know

You need to post a screenshot of your tactic, to begin with. Because how are otherwise we supposed to tell if something may be wrong with your tactic?

[busngabb]

Lets face it, it's nothing to do with tactics if they were working previously. It's one of those runs the game throws at you. I'm experiencing a similar one myself now, EG is through the roof, the players hit the post, bar and keeper but won't score. Losing or drawing every game. It goes on for about six games and you eventually win one. It happens in real life, but feels incredibly scripted in the game as there's literally nothing you can do about it.

[zyfon5]

3 hours ago, busngabb said:

Lets face it, it's nothing to do with tactics if they were working previously. It's one of those runs the game throws at you. I'm experiencing a similar one myself now, EG is through the roof, the players hit the post, bar and keeper but won't score. Losing or drawing every game. It goes on for about six games and you eventually win one. It happens in real life, but feels incredibly scripted in the game as there's literally nothing you can do about it.

or it could be the other way around the winning run was a lucky one and the lose streak after is the real performance of the tactic

[Keyzer Soze]

But why play 6 or 8 games, without making tactical changes, if you are not winning? 

What a real life manager would do? 

You play 2 games, don't win, but you play "good" you have created changes, but you didn't score and didn't win, what a real life manager would do in the next game? Leave all the same way? I don't think so. 

Just make a small change in your tactic, for example a inside forward that is turn into a winger, or a DLP that is turn into a AP, or make a bigger change... Turn your 442 into a 4231, or something like that.... But don't stick with the same tactic, and probably the same starting 11, for 6 or 7 games if you are not winning, despite how high your XG is. 

[Svenc]

Well, the game seems to somewhat simulate xG underperformance (at least with AI managed sides, e.g. this Galatasaray). By in-game xG, sHould have had 15 points more, but were relegated first season (cheating AI, clearly ;)) .  
 

image.png.07495f20fc0219dbb5e310dbe1aa160e.png (3440×1482) (invisioncic.com)
image.png.c275facad9c8537fb4eb913d1a3a2057.png (3494×1210) (invisioncic.com)

One of the long-term "uses" of xG and similar models is an additional help when trying to gauge performance and whether it was good or bad luck behind current results (data fluent clubs such as Brentford have not renewed manager contracts after seemingly successful league campaigns because their analysis had concluded their performance hadn't warranted the good results, e.g. they were being lucky).

 

Ideally, in-game xG would be able to do the same. If it were real football, things only even out in the longer run.... which a single season is anything but. 

Opta Expected Goals - YouTube (the part about Juventus at the end)

Just how unlucky are Brighton? Expected goals analysis of Graham Potter's side (sportinglife.com)
Borussia Dortmund's crisis isn't a crisis at all, and stats prove they will rebound (espn.com) (Klopp was actually in big parts signed by LFC because their own analysis team had concluded he was having one of those seasons)

However, data alone are still but data alone. A good example of that is in this Man City analysis from Statsbomb from last season (their xG difference was above all, however, they still had issues when delving a little deeper, plus it was suggested that LFC weren't fully onpar as they were really effective at taking leads, so never had to push for higher xG).

How Much Do Manchester City Need to Overhaul? | StatsBomb 
What does your own Expected Points table look like? And how do your Expected Goals total compare to your ACtual goals scored? 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Svenc

[busngabb]

4 hours ago, Keyzer Soze said:

But why play 6 or 8 games, without making tactical changes, if you are not winning? 

What a real life manager would do?

I just berate my players and criticise them and fine them until we win. Sometimes it's all just the players fault and they need to be held to account.

[Freakiie]

1 hour ago, busngabb said:

I just berate my players and criticise them and fine them until we win. Sometimes it's all just the players fault and they need to be held to account.

If that's your approach to man management it's no surprise you go on massive loss streaks at times to be honest. Might want to look at that instead of just blaming the game for "throwing one of those streaks at you"....

[busngabb]

46 minutes ago, Freakiie said:

If that's your approach to man management it's no surprise you go on massive loss streaks at times to be honest. Might want to look at that instead of just blaming the game for "throwing one of those streaks at you"....

Different management styles are allowed. Mourinho is one from that mould and has been very successful. A lot of players in the game react really, really well to criticism, as they would in real life.

[zyfon5]

1 hour ago, busngabb said:

Different management styles are allowed. Mourinho is one from that mould and has been very successful. A lot of players in the game react really, really well to criticism, as they would in real life.

Mourinho does not really always criticize his players though. He is more famous for creating a type of seige mentality for his team aka blaming others mistakes for his players failures. So there is definitely some balancing needed. And most players in the game do not take too much criticism very well except those with very high professionalism and low controversy.

[Guest]

This is very apt

OP share your tactics if you want help.

[Experienced Defender]

@busngabb I have to ask you a very simple question: if you think that your issue is not tactical (as you stated in the opening post of this thread) + don't want to present your tactic (which I asked for in my previous comment), why then did you choose to open this topic in the tactical forum instead of somewhere else (in general discussion, for example)? 

[busngabb]

4 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

@busngabb I have to ask you a very simple question: if you think that your issue is not tactical (as you stated in the opening post of this thread) + don't want to present your tactic (which I asked for in my previous comment), why then did you choose to open this topic in the tactical forum instead of somewhere else (in general discussion, for example)? 

This isn't my topic, I didn't start it.

I was merely pointing out my opinion that the sudden drop off in results the OP had is probably not tactical if he hasn't changed anything. Other issues such as complacency could easily be the cause or saying the wrong thing in a press conference somewhere or in a team talk, or a combination of all those.

[Experienced Defender]

7 minutes ago, busngabb said:

This isn't my topic, I didn't start it.

I was merely pointing out my opinion that the sudden drop off in results the OP had is probably not tactical if he hasn't changed anything. Other issues such as complacency could easily be the cause or saying the wrong thing in a press conference somewhere or in a team talk, or a combination of all those.

Okay, sorry. My bad 

[Fatkidscantjump]

I feel like you should analyze the chances you get and not just look about XG. For example if you only have small XG increments, but a lot, or high XG increments but few of them. The latter one might indicate a lack of offensive punch and would benefit from tactical changes while the former means your strikers (or whoever are taking the chances) suffer from bad form / bad luck and the answer might be found in how you approach team talks, press conferences or even training to get them back on track.