Aspects that make you win or lose a game? I need to figure it out

[emersonjr]

I'm really trying to understand it better but having a hard time. I know this stuff has been discussed likely tons of times before and i don't want to bring all discussions back, but i want to share my case and try to understand it to hopefully find some solutions.

I was a lot frustrated to play state championships in Brazil (it's a brazil thing, it's probably like a regional league in other countries), because there's lots of lower league clubs in this cup and barely have players created for them on the official DB; some have just  4 or 6 players and others have none, only those grey-named very weak players generated by FM itself. So, virtually all the games would end up like 6x0, 7x0, 10x0, and the club i've choosen for my save is from 3rd national division. IRL the scores usually are 1x0, 0x0, 1x1, 2x1,3x1, sometimes even happens more draws than winnersXlosers. IRL those overkill scores like 9x0 use to happen, but not that often. Also IRL, those strongers clubs ofc have less chance of losing when playing against lower league clubs, but there's a chance, small but it exist. However, it seems for FM it doesn't. I learned that always the game says "I'm favorite" for a game, i'm supposed to win or draw at least, but never lose. And i'm saying it because I haven't been able to lose a single game in this cup, only been able to draw in the worst case by 0x0, but I never managed to lose. I never dreamt of losing so much in this game like now.

So in face of this situation, I decided to create some players myself for these weak clubs, setting a higher CA/PA for them. In an attempt to "balance" things, I've created a bit more than 2k players and set their CA/PA to something close to the average of the lowest BR national division, which is the Fourth division. Then, I created a new save, loaded my new players and did some test.

Indeed, the new players brought more realism to these scores. Now they really happen around the values i'd mentioned: 1x0, 0x0, 1x1, 2x1,3x1 (I really have the impression that the likelyhood of draws are lower then usual scores in FM, it's hard for me to get draws although sometimes games between the clubs in the cup i'm playing it seems to be more often... at least from what i can realize looking at post-game results... anyways, don't know why, but i'm overlooking it now and may discuss it later). 

However, one thing is still true afterall... I'M STILL NOT ABLE TO LOSE GAMES TO THESE "WEAK" CLUBS, and i'm putting the quotes cause now these clubs are not weak anymore. To be honest, i tried creating and recreating saves like 7 times to test it, but i don't thiink if i'd repeat it like 60 times would reach a different outcome. And I also don't need to say that it's not real. Yes, it's hard for a 3rd or 2nd or 1st national division club to lose for very weak clubs, but the fact is, IT HAPPENS, rarelly but happens.

So, the only thing i can think of now is that there's more reasons that majorly affects the results of a game than the players skills. Yes, I know there's lots of variables that influences in the games results, but i'd really like to fingure out what's mostly influencing to cause those unreal results, and upon understand it try to edit what's needed to provide more reality to the game.

Maybe some infos could help but i'm not sure. These weak clubs also have very low reputation, does it really influence that much? Because having different clubs with pretty the same quality of players, the only difference is that they are in different national division, shouldn't make then play better or worst.

If it's real, it's like you'd pick Real Madrid and throw then in last Spanish league with the same current squad but only cause of that all the players gonna play like a trash.

Well, I spoke too much... but i think i let my issue clear here. Anymore infos needed I can provide.

I felt happy about managing to create new players that really improved gameplay in these lower league cups. For those having similar problems in their saves, i strongly suggest to do smth like that, it helps one way or another.

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by emersonjr

[HUNT3R]

At the very least, you'll have to edit the reputation of the clubs too. Right now, they'll still behave like massive underdogs, so with park the bus tactics etc.

[emersonjr]

28 minutes ago, HUNT3R said:

At the very least, you'll have to edit the reputation of the clubs too. Right now, they'll still behave like massive underdogs, so with park the bus tactics etc.

but only reputation? is there anything else to edit that would help? do you also have any reference value that i could set to bring effective results?

Edited April 7, 2021 by emersonjr

[emersonjr]

Hey @HUNT3R, if possible, could you elaborate more please on what's the main factors that defines if a team is going to play good enough so that it's possible to lose against them?

[HUNT3R]

I don't use editors, so I can't really elaborate.

12 hours ago, emersonjr said:

do you also have any reference value that i could set to bring effective results?

You can look into this yourself. You've already edited players' CA. Assuming you've done that to an 'acceptable' level, simply edit the rep to match.

[Xavier Lukhas]

I've played with empty databases in the past. Assuming the quality of player is the same between all clubs, (which it is since you're going to "Add Players to Playable teams"), Reputation will essentially be the main factor influencing the results. For example, say you have the French Ligue 1 or the Italian Serie A where one team tends to consistently dominate all the time, in this case PSG or Zebre Juventus. Now imagine you give the exact same players to every team in the league, and you simulate for a season. The result is that more often than not, PSG and Juve will come out on top because Reputation heavily influences how a given team lines up against you. That's also the reason why when you promote a club it's easier to do well with proactive tactics than with negative tactics: even if your players are worse than the league average, playing on the front foot will create surprises since the AI expects you to play negatively and expose itself needlessly. Then you get the usual mid-season crash where the AI adjusts itself to your newly gained Rep and you get sacked.

So yes, the short of it is that you should adjust the Reputation of the clubs in your championship so that they don't play too negatively. It won't be enough to make up for the difference in player quality, but it will help balancing results out. There's no "reference value", you "just" need to get the Reputations of those clubs closer together.

[emersonjr]

20 hours ago, Xavier Lukhas said:

I've played with empty databases in the past. Assuming the quality of player is the same between all clubs, (which it is since you're going to "Add Players to Playable teams"), Reputation will essentially be the main factor influencing the results. For example, say you have the French Ligue 1 or the Italian Serie A where one team tends to consistently dominate all the time, in this case PSG or Zebre Juventus. Now imagine you give the exact same players to every team in the league, and you simulate for a season. The result is that more often than not, PSG and Juve will come out on top because Reputation heavily influences how a given team lines up against you. That's also the reason why when you promote a club it's easier to do well with proactive tactics than with negative tactics: even if your players are worse than the league average, playing on the front foot will create surprises since the AI expects you to play negatively and expose itself needlessly. Then you get the usual mid-season crash where the AI adjusts itself to your newly gained Rep and you get sacked.

So yes, the short of it is that you should adjust the Reputation of the clubs in your championship so that they don't play too negatively. It won't be enough to make up for the difference in player quality, but it will help balancing results out. There's no "reference value", you "just" need to get the Reputations of those clubs closer together.

Thanks @Xavier Lukhas, I've been doing a few more tests here. The club I chose in my save has 4700 rep and 95 average CA. I've editted the other clubs in the cup i'm playing to have 5000rep and 80-85 average CA, yet... i still haven't been able to lose any game... This is so frustrating, i feel like breaking the game just to make it real, at least in terms of CA/PA and Rep, even their Budget i tweaked and no lost games so far.

 

I thing i noticed now is that almost 100% of the games i dominate in shots stats but in possession stats usually i don't anymore. Anyways, i still do win or at least draw, but no lose.

Edited April 8, 2021 by emersonjr

[Xavier Lukhas]

il y a 21 minutes, emersonjr a dit :

Thanks @Xavier Lukhas, I've been doing a few more tests here. The club I chose in my save has 4700 rep and 95 average CA. I've editted the other clubs in the cup i'm playing to have 5000rep and 80-85 average CA, yet... i still haven't been able to lose any game... This is so frustrating, i feel like breaking the game just to make it real, at least in terms of CA/PA and Rep, even their Budget i tweaked and no lost games so far.

 

I thing i noticed now is that almost 100% of the games i dominate in shots stats but in possession stats usually i don't anymore. Anyways, i still do win or at least draw, but no lose.

To be fair, the AI isn't particularly competent at tactics or exploiting the best out of their players. You're not going to lose too often with a squad of equivalent or slightly worse quality if you just have tactics that make basic sense. At least, you're not going to unless things don't go your way at all: worse Reputation, worse player quality, Home Bias (the AI does play more positively at home), bad luck (refereeing, injuries, etc.). It is what it is in FM. You'll have a few shock loses, but that's really about it. Honestly, compare the AI to itself and not to you: look if the other matches that aren't involving you involve spankings or not. If the scores look alright, then you did well enough to balance your database out.

[emersonjr]

On 08/04/2021 at 13:16, Xavier Lukhas said:

To be fair, the AI isn't particularly competent at tactics or exploiting the best out of their players. You're not going to lose too often with a squad of equivalent or slightly worse quality if you just have tactics that make basic sense. At least, you're not going to unless things don't go your way at all: worse Reputation, worse player quality, Home Bias (the AI does play more positively at home), bad luck (refereeing, injuries, etc.). It is what it is in FM. You'll have a few shock loses, but that's really about it. Honestly, compare the AI to itself and not to you: look if the other matches that aren't involving you involve spankings or not. If the scores look alright, then you did well enough to balance your database out.

 @Xavier Lukhas also i don't know if it's my mind but do specific cups have some kind of influence as well? like do you know why in some cups if the oposite team is like just a bit lower in rep and  player quality it seems the game increases the chances of other team score in last minutes to make it be decided in penalties then you lose in penalties?  It's something that use to happen a lot with me, i never lost a game in the first stage of Brazilian Cup (our national cup), but in the second stage that situation is waaaay often.

[Xavier Lukhas]

il y a 48 minutes, emersonjr a dit :

 @Xavier Lukhas also i don't know if it's my mind but do specific cups have some kind of influence as well? like do you know why in some cups if the oposite team is like just a bit lower in rep and  player quality it seems the game increases the chances of other team score in last minutes to make it be decided in penalties then you lose in penalties?  It's something that use to happen a lot with me, i never lost a game in the first stage of Brazilian Cup (our national cup), but in the second stage that situation is waaaay often.

The AI is pretty binary in its reactions. It might play conservatively, then it may also throw the kitchen sink at you if there's like 30 minutes left and they're down a goal or two. Basically what that means is that they change their tactical preset by the flick of a switch. Notice how about every manager has a preferred attacking and defending formation? That's what happens: with the right triggers they switch formations instantly, and if that new formation works well against you... That's just FM for you: it's not particularly new behaviour, but it's pretty jarring when IRL it tends to take more time for wide tactical changes to have an effect. Also, note that there's strong home bias in the cups, moreso than in a league match where it already is a factor. Sometimes you can exploit that to your advantage, sometimes it works against you. That's FM for you.