Rob1981 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 (edited) Strap in for some number crunching lads. I had most of this saved on my laptop from an old Euro 2016 thread so I thought it was worth posting again. Of course, we're all slowly coming round to the dreary 24-team format nowadays. But the big questions still remain: How good to you have to be to get through in third place? Do you need four points or is three usually enough? Do you need to win at least once? What if you draw all your games? What about goal difference? Could you win and still go out? Well fear not. Because I have ranked all the 72 third-placed teams from previous tournament groups, 1994-2016. We can use the word "sextile" here too... which as well as being funny, is the word statisticians use for data divided into six equal segments. SEXTILE #1 (Teams 1-12) P W D L F A GD Pts Argentina WC94 3 2 0 1 6 3 +3 6 Belgium WC94 3 2 0 1 2 1 +1 6 Italy EC04 3 1 2 0 3 2 +1 5 Spain WC98 3 1 1 1 8 4 +4 4 Russia EC12 3 1 1 1 5 3 +2 4 Croatia EC12 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4 Ivory Coast WC10 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4 Morocco WC98 3 1 1 1 5 5 0 4 South Africa WC02 3 1 1 1 5 5 0 4 Denmark EC96 3 1 1 1 4 4 0 4 Ecuador WC14 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4 Italy EC96 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4 SEXTILE #2 (Teams 13-24) P W D L F A GD Pts Slovakia EC16 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4 Slovenia WC10 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4 USA WC94 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4 Argentina WC02 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 4 Italy WC94 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 4 Spain EC04 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 4 Norway EC00 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 Switzerland WC10 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 Costa Rica WC02 3 1 1 1 5 6 -1 4 Bulgaria EC96 3 1 1 1 3 4 -1 4 South Korea WC06 3 1 1 1 3 4 -1 4 Cameroon WC02 3 1 1 1 2 3 -1 4 SEXTILE #3 (Teams 25-36) P W D L F A GD Pts Scotland EC96 3 1 1 1 1 2 -1 4 South Africa WC10 3 1 1 1 3 5 -2 4 Ireland EC16 3 1 1 1 2 4 -2 4 Portugal WC14 3 1 1 1 4 7 -3 4 Australia WC10 3 1 1 1 3 6 -3 4 Portugal WC02 3 1 0 2 6 4 +2 3 Russia WC94 3 1 0 2 7 6 +1 3 Croatia WC14 3 1 0 2 6 6 0 3 Bosnia WC14 3 1 0 2 4 4 0 3 Portugal EC16 3 0 3 0 4 4 0 3 Russia WC02 3 1 0 2 4 4 0 3 Belgium WC98 3 0 3 0 3 3 0 3 SEXTILE #4 (Teams 37-48) P W D L F A GD Pts Czech Rep EC00 3 1 0 2 3 3 0 3 N Ireland EC16 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 3 New Zealand WC10 3 0 3 0 2 2 0 3 Paraguay WC06 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 3 England EC00 3 1 0 2 5 6 -1 3 Ivory Coast WC06 3 1 0 2 5 6 -1 3 Denmark EC12 3 1 0 2 4 5 -1 3 Ivory Coast WC14 3 1 0 2 4 5 -1 3 Czech Rep WC06 3 1 0 2 3 4 -1 3 Sweden EC08 3 1 0 2 3 4 -1 3 Croatia WC02 3 1 0 2 2 3 -1 3 Italy WC14 3 1 0 2 2 3 -1 3 SEXTILE #5 (Teams 49-60) P W D L F A GD Pts Czech Rep EC08 3 1 0 2 4 6 -2 3 Iran WC98 3 1 0 2 2 4 -2 3 Poland WC06 3 1 0 2 2 4 -2 3 Turkey EC16 3 1 0 2 2 4 -2 3 Ukraine EC12 3 1 0 2 2 4 -2 3 Albania EC16 3 1 0 2 1 3 -2 3 Colombia WC98 3 1 0 2 1 3 -2 3 Spain WC14 3 1 0 2 4 7 -3 3 Denmark WC10 3 1 0 2 3 6 -3 3 Belgium EC00 3 1 0 2 2 5 -3 3 Greece WC10 3 1 0 2 2 5 -3 3 Jamaica WC98 3 1 0 2 3 9 -6 3 SEXTILE #6 (Teams 61-72) P W D L F A GD Pts South Korea WC94 3 0 2 1 4 5 -1 2 Uruguay WC02 3 0 2 1 4 5 -1 2 Austria WC98 3 0 2 1 3 4 -1 2 Croatia WC06 3 0 2 1 2 3 -1 2 Germany EC04 3 0 2 1 2 3 -1 2 Russia WC14 3 0 2 1 2 3 -1 2 Angola WC06 3 0 2 1 1 2 -1 2 Croatia EC04 3 0 2 1 4 6 -2 2 Romania EC08 3 0 2 1 1 3 -2 2 South Africa WC98 3 0 2 1 3 6 -3 2 Austria EC08 3 0 1 2 1 3 -2 1 Tunisia WC06 3 0 1 2 3 6 -3 1 So what have we learned? Well 4/6 third place teams go through obvs. So based on the previous data, something from one of your top four "sextiles" here should be enough to earn a R16 place. Four points = you can safely extend the hotel booking Three points and a positive goal difference = probably also OK Three points and GD of 0 or -1 = sweating a bit but might scrape through Three points but with a hammering along the way = probably ****ed it Only one or two points = pack your bags I mean, there's always the chance of a freak set of results where all the third-place teams get 5-6 points and two of them still go home. But probably not. Discuss. Edited June 2, 2021 by Rob1981 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haguey Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 (edited) I remember the supposed scandal after Italy went out on goals scored in 2004, when they, Sweden and Denmark finished on 5 points but the latter two went through after a mutually convenient 3 all draw Hope there's more shenanigans. Also, I remember 2016 when Iceland finished second in their group instead of Portugal and the BBC studio went all excited cos we were guaranteed the quarter finals, I remember also that that went well. Edited June 1, 2021 by Haguey Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 Spain in 1998 on here too... eight goals in the group stage and still went out Remember they pummelled someone about 6-0 in their final game but the other result went against them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
skybluedave Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 God I hate this format. Always saps a bit of excitement from me when I remember everyone qualifies. I then starting Wiki'ing old Euros to remind myself what a proper tournament looks like. You'd get the odd chancer like a Bulgaria or Latvia but generally most teams fancy finishing in top 2 and need to be on it from the get go to do that. Proper groups of death too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haguey Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Rob1981 said: Spain in 1998 on here too... eight goals in the group stage and still went out Remember they pummelled someone about 6-0 in their final game but the other result went against them. Yeah they smashed that ancient Bulgaria team 6-1, but Paraguay beat a Nigeria team who rested their players as they'd already won the group. Was in Spain at the time, watched it on a massive TV, basically one of my first proper experience of watching football as I didn't care before then. Lots of sad/angry Spaniards Edited June 1, 2021 by Haguey Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
XuluBak Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 16/24 is beyond ridiculous. Renders a significant portion of the group stage pointless. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robokid87 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Agree with the above, finishing 3rd in a 4 team group and going through is ******** as is having different numbers of teams qualifying from each group. When the draw is made you should be able to easily map out the whole tournament rather than having to go through 'if these get 3 points and a +1 GD, and these get 3 points and 0 GD then...' ffs. If you want 24 teams then have 8 qualifying group winners go straight into the tournament, with the 2nd placed sides and Nations League qualifying teams facing off in 8 one-off matches to join them and hence going back to 4 groups of 4. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 (edited) I've droned on about this many times, but worth saying again how ridiculously imbalanced it is once you get through the group stage. In the Round of 16, four group winners play a 3rd place team but two group winners have to play a group runner-up. Which also means two group runners-up have to play a group winner while the other four runners-up only have to play against each other. When you hit the quarter finals it gets even worse. In theory some of the group winners then start hitting each other, but two of them get an easier draw because they play the winner from a R16 tie that only had runners-up in it: Group F winner plays a 3rd place team and then plays the winner out of Group D Runner-Up and Group E Runner-Up Group C winner plays a 3rd place team and then plays the winner out of Group A Runner-Up and Group B Runner-Up So these two can get all the way to the semis without having to play another group winner while the other four group winners hit each other a round earlier. Potentially throws up ridiculous differences between rest days as well. e.g. Group A is the first to finish, but depending on the 3rd place stuff the 3rd placed team in Group A could get paired with the Group F winner who don't finish their group until three days later. So by the time they play in the R16 the Group A team has had eight days off and the Group F team has only had five. That's before you get into all the nonsense about the multiple cities as well where some sides will be travelling loads and others will be staying in western Europe for the duration. Edited June 2, 2021 by Rob1981 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfair Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 21 hours ago, Haguey said: I remember the supposed scandal after Italy went out on goals scored in 2004, when they, Sweden and Denmark finished on 5 points but the latter two went through after a mutually convenient 3 all draw It was 2-2, the exact result needed to take both us and Denmark through. Hard to say they rigged it like that though, all goals seemed completely genuine. But yeah, something like that obviously raises suspicions. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
martinji Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 On 02/06/2021 at 17:51, Rob1981 said: I've droned on about this many times, but worth saying again how ridiculously imbalanced it is once you get through the group stage. In the Round of 16, four group winners play a 3rd place team but two group winners have to play a group runner-up. Which also means two group runners-up have to play a group winner while the other four runners-up only have to play against each other. When you hit the quarter finals it gets even worse. In theory some of the group winners then start hitting each other, but two of them get an easier draw because they play the winner from a R16 tie that only had runners-up in it: Group F winner plays a 3rd place team and then plays the winner out of Group D Runner-Up and Group E Runner-Up Group C winner plays a 3rd place team and then plays the winner out of Group A Runner-Up and Group B Runner-Up So these two can get all the way to the semis without having to play another group winner while the other four group winners hit each other a round earlier. Potentially throws up ridiculous differences between rest days as well. e.g. Group A is the first to finish, but depending on the 3rd place stuff the 3rd placed team in Group A could get paired with the Group F winner who don't finish their group until three days later. So by the time they play in the R16 the Group A team has had eight days off and the Group F team has only had five. That's before you get into all the nonsense about the multiple cities as well where some sides will be travelling loads and others will be staying in western Europe for the duration. yeah it's a bit weird how the teams that get the easier ride in the quarters are also teams that got an easier ride in the last 16. If you have 6 groups you are bound to have some degree of difference in difficulty of paths to the semis but surely it could have been constructed so that the teams that face group runners up in the quarters had to face runners up rather than third placed teams in the last 16. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 (edited) Don't know if anyone remembers these graphics from the last World Cup? Tremendous stuff, modelling which teams are most likely to end up where in the R16. This is from last week, assume there will be an updated version after everyone has played their first game. Edited June 19 by Rob1981 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weezer Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Still better than the ridiculous Copa America going on right now where 8 out of 10 teams qualify from the group stage. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Wallin Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 On 01/06/2021 at 22:49, Haguey said: I remember the supposed scandal after Italy went out on goals scored in 2004, when they, Sweden and Denmark finished on 5 points but the latter two went through after a mutually convenient 3 all draw Blame UEFA as it was their system that made that possible. As all teams won v the 4th team then that win only mattered as a win, not to the size of the win. Under the FIFA system to decide placing the size of all group matches would have mattered before between meetings and thus all Italy would have needed to do was win bigger than either of Sweden or Denmark did and they would have gone through (and thus made the Sweden v Denmark game into a one team decider). Of course they didn't actually win big enough for that but I guess they had had some better motivation if it would have mattered. On 02/06/2021 at 20:01, Norfair said: It was 2-2, the exact result needed to take both us and Denmark through. Hard to say they rigged it like that though, all goals seemed completely genuine. But yeah, something like that obviously raises suspicions. I always thought the funniest part of that was that none of the Swedish media had even considered the possibilities of the 2-2 result when the Italian media started making noise about it (nor had something like 90%+ of the Swedish fans). Laughed quite a bit at this in the crowds during the game. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf_pd Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Well, I am expecting the next Euro or the one after that to have 32 teams as all teams deserve a chance, so the issue with 24 teams is then solved. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 First update to this after all the Matchday 1 games: Calling England v France as the most likely R16 matchup But also has France as favourites to win their group as well as be runners-up in their group. Not sure what to make of that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Wallin Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rob1981 said: But also has France as favourites to win their group as well as be runners-up in their group. Not sure what to make of that. Seems like a quirk due to those teams being very close in strength/odds. No clear favourite and thus the best team gets the nod in both categories. Kind or an "either" v "either or" difference. But I could be wrong, haven't done statistics since I left uni. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 Suppose it makes sense if you take 1st and 2nd together, i.e. chance of finishing in the top two France: 49.5% + 37.6% = 87.1% Portugal: 45.3% + 35.7% = 81.0% Germany: ?? + 22.5% = 30% ish So France have best chance of winning but also best chance of finishing 2nd because the others are more likely to finish third. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1981 Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 Just love those graphics Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Lucas Posted June 20, 2021 Administrators Share Posted June 20, 2021 On 16/06/2021 at 09:42, Rob1981 said: First update to this after all the Matchday 1 games: Calling England v France as the most likely R16 matchup But also has France as favourites to win their group as well as be runners-up in their group. Not sure what to make of that. https://experimental361.com/2021/06/20/euro-2020-permutations-20-jun-2021/ 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Lucas Posted June 20, 2021 Administrators Share Posted June 20, 2021 Just thought I'd add this from UEFA's regulations in terms of R16 matches: Full UEFA page on who needs what, here too: https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/news/026a-1286c3028f34-c072d2f81d9b-1000--who-needs-what-to-go-through/ 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
VamPook Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 There's actually a good chance Portugal doesn't qualify... excellent. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astafjevs Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Can see from that if Switzerland are one of the best third placed teams, then whoever qualifies third from Group F (assuming someone qualifies from Group F in 3rd), is highly likely to play Holland in round of 16 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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