Frustration: inconsistency and RNG

[stopazricky]

Hey guys! I wanted to share some thoughts with you in hopes that you can change my mind. I don't feel like playing any more FM.

I'm in UCL first knockout rounds against Real, I play Atalanta but I'm 7 seasons in, 5 star reputation, I won the UCL last year and brought in the likes of Pedri, Camavinga, and 'Mbappé (who won the last two Ballon D'Or). Still, Real was definitely a threat. I lose 2-1 in Bernabeu, Then I win 3-2 in Bergamo and I'm out. This is a realistic result and I'm not complaining about it at all. However, I just wanted to see what the odds really were, so I decided to save and then load a backup save to play the second leg again.

The first time I played the game I was watching the most amount of highlights available, making tweaks every now and again. They scored almost immediately so I reacted, I tried playing more direct, later I switched Pedri from AMC to the left flank so that he could find more space while far from Real's CDM. I was making subs based on performance (not even ratings, but by watching and taking mental notes). Pedri fails a one vs one in a pretty awful way (Finishing 13, Composure 19, Technique 18, around 19 Important Matches). Poor finishing for top UCL, I get it, that's ok. Mbappé scores twice... out of four one vs one's (and by that I mean four instances where he was alone, on his preferred foot, with defenders ten metres behind him). 18 Finishing, 19 Composure, 19 Technique, 16 or so Important Matches. It wasn't even Courtois blocking the shots, he was missing the goal.

Second time around, I was kind of fed up so I just went into the game with my standard tactic, I didn't make any change, I didn't even watch the game, I made no subs even when my starting eleven was very tired, never adapted, and I won 1-0 and I got the qualification for the next round. That is what is driving me away from the game.

While 2 games are not a statistically relevant sample, my point has nothing to do with stats, it has to do with how much stats can swing.

One of three things must have happened, and there's no fourth way.
1) The tactical changes I made during the game in my first simulation were bad, so I've set up myself to failure to the point that had I not made any tweak, I would've had a batter chance of winning.
If that's the case, then I don't understand football enough to enjoy this game, plain and simple. If I'm so bad that leaving everything on default is better than what I come up with, I can't play FM.

2) The tactical changes were irrelevant or 3) they did improve my chances but weren't enough in that particular simulation, however not doing anything was plenty for winning the next one.
If one of these is true, then rng is more relevant than what the player does in the game and that's quite the burden to play with - knowing that you can spend hours on signings and tactics but it's really just a dice roll anyway.
But maybe  football itself is so complex it's random, and FM is just as random - maybe even less - as reality. 

And that's why I don't feel like playing anymore. I don't feel like my efforts are being rewarded even when they are and I win. In a way, I always feel like I'm save scumming even when I play a match only once. My thought process is not "Oh great I won I must've done something right", now it's more like "I won this big game but maybe it was just sheer luck". It's not just the goals that are inconsistent, it's the performance. The number of shots isn't similar, xG's aren't similar. The game is inconsistent and I feel like I have no power over it.
 

[Grifty]

If you don't feel like playing anymore, don't. It's a game that's supposed to be fun. If you're not having fun, play something else.

You'll get the bug in a month or two and will pick it up again and continue to enjoy it.

[GreenTriangle]

7 hours ago, stopazricky said:

 

Unfortunately, in real life, football is a game in which two teams take part, both consisting of 11 players each. Each team has its own strategy and there is no rule that a certain team should be forced to use the same strategy every match. Also, no team can be forced to keep its strategy during the entire match. The 22 players on the field have their own characteristics. Some of them have a constant and strong mental state, others have a variable and weak mental state. Some have physical problems, others do not. Some of them can be easily annoyed or discouraged, others are very stable. Some players can play very well in one match and very bad in in the next match. Others can play well in more consecutive matches. Players are not machines, they are not toys. They don't always act the same just because someone gives them some orders. This is footbal. Everything you posted can be summarized in one sentence: you don't like football. I'm really sorry for you. It's a beautiful sport.

[stopazricky]

7 hours ago, GreenTriangle said:

Everything you posted can be summarized in one sentence: you don't like football.

I used to, though, and they were good times! I wish someone could say something that could help me put things in perspective and enjoy it again. But yeah, as I mentioned myself, it's probably football itself that works like this, and FM is just a loyal simulation.

[Tyburn]

Football is pretty inconsistent. Consistency is what every manager bangs on about regularly.

I’ve never had a huge amount of success changing things on the fly. Your team are used to playing a certain way. Your experiment highlights this. You won the second attempt by sticking to what they knew. I may change formation, mentality even the whole tactic during a game, but I wouldn’t start moving players around within the tactic, unless I make a point of doing it often so they’re used to it. And that’s the thing I think. Occasionally you may pull off a master stroke in game on the fly, but personally, I get better results by doing what my players expect.

Perhaps we should be able to tweak during the game, throughout the game, as we spot something. But, as before, players respond better to what they know and have practised in my experience.

[CARRERA]

15 hours ago, stopazricky said:

And that's why I don't feel like playing anymore. I don't feel like my efforts are being rewarded even when they are and I win.

 

15 hours ago, stopazricky said:

I play Atalanta but I'm 7 seasons in, 5 star reputation, I won the UCL last year

You won the UCL with Atalanta, how didnt that reward your effort? 

The odds of two good teams winning the match are around 50/50. A bit of luck, consistency and tactical setup. 
 

isn’t the inconsistency of results (to some extend) what makes football, football? 

[GreenTriangle]

2 hours ago, stopazricky said:

I used to, though, and they were good times! I wish someone could say something that could help me put things in perspective and enjoy it again. But yeah, as I mentioned myself, it's probably football itself that works like this, and FM is just a loyal simulation.

And how should football be in such a way that you like it ? No variation, everything calculated mathematically strictly based on the individual value of each player? Is this "football" ?

[herne79]

17 hours ago, stopazricky said:

However, I just wanted to see what the odds really were, so I decided to save and then load a backup save to play the second leg again.

This is your problem and the reason you are now feeling like you do, it's entirely self inflicted.  You replayed the match and ended up feeling bad.  Before you replayed it you were ok about it - in your own words "This is a realistic result and I'm not complaining about it at all".  Your complaint only started once you replayed it.  So why replay?  After all, you can't in real life and replaying matches in FM rarely (if ever) teaches you anything more than how to beat (or lose against) a very specific team in a specific set of circumstances, which is meaningless for a long term strategy against a wide variety of opposition.

It is far more useful to watch back the original match played, learn from what you did, what went wrong, what did or didn't work and why things turned out as they did.  That's how you can get better with tactics in the long run, not replaying the same match over and over.

[stopazricky]

6 hours ago, CARRERA said:

You won the UCL with Atalanta, how didnt that reward your effort?

It did! But it always felt a bit like I was just lucky. For example, I won the the final 1-0 against Bayern because their three best players were all out injured. So the game definitely does reward me, but it somehow still feels like it doesn't.

4 hours ago, GreenTriangle said:

And how should football be in such a way that you like it ? No variation, everything calculated mathematically strictly based on the individual value of each player? Is this "football" ?

You have a point. Football is not supposed to be consistent, you're right about it.

4 hours ago, herne79 said:

This is your problem and the reason you are now feeling like you do, it's entirely self inflicted.  You replayed the match and ended up feeling bad.  Before you replayed it you were ok about it - in your own words "This is a realistic result and I'm not complaining about it at all".  Your complaint only started once you replayed it.  So why replay?

Yeah I think you're right. The thing is, I probably replayed the game because this feeling was already in me before, and this just tipped the balance over. I don't know...

[isignedupfornorealreason]

2 hours ago, stopazricky said:

For example, I won the the final 1-0 against Bayern because their three best players were all out injured.

Luck's always been a factor in football though, so has inconsistency.

 

SAF's 1998/99 Treble winning side were fantastic, but also gloriously lucky at times. Bayern outplayed them in the final, and if we were the manager of Bayern and we met SAF's Treble winning team, I'm sure we'd all be on here raging about the AI FM'ing us! Football turns on small margins sometimes, look at Chelsea losing to United thanks to the slip for the penalty by Terry, or the Stevie G slip for Liverpool.

 

It's the same thing with Mbappe missing glorious chances in your match. United should have had the Europa Final tied up and done by the 70th minute or so this year, I think Rashford had a sitter for example, that he shanked wide. Sometimes, you just get comprehensively outplayed (like United vs Barcelona in the CL Final) or you get it wrong (like Pep's City this year), and sometimes you can play your normal game and for whatever reason, every shot goes in. We see it with Southampton this season, or those games where clubs like United, City, Liverpool concede 6-7 in a match from out of nowhere.

 

At the end of the day, we just have to accept the randomness, the inconsistency and the frustration. But when frustration takes over, that's the time to have a break, it's a difficult thing to deal with and it can ruin the fun at times, but that's just the game.

[stopazricky]

41 minutes ago, isignedupfornorealreason said:

Luck's always been a factor in football though, so has inconsistency.

 

SAF's 1998/99 Treble winning side were fantastic, but also gloriously lucky at times. Bayern outplayed them in the final, and if we were the manager of Bayern and we met SAF's Treble winning team, I'm sure we'd all be on here raging about the AI FM'ing us! Football turns on small margins sometimes, look at Chelsea losing to United thanks to the slip for the penalty by Terry, or the Stevie G slip for Liverpool.

 

It's the same thing with Mbappe missing glorious chances in your match. United should have had the Europa Final tied up and done by the 70th minute or so this year, I think Rashford had a sitter for example, that he shanked wide. Sometimes, you just get comprehensively outplayed (like United vs Barcelona in the CL Final) or you get it wrong (like Pep's City this year), and sometimes you can play your normal game and for whatever reason, every shot goes in. We see it with Southampton this season, or those games where clubs like United, City, Liverpool concede 6-7 in a match from out of nowhere.

 

At the end of the day, we just have to accept the randomness, the inconsistency and the frustration. But when frustration takes over, that's the time to have a break, it's a difficult thing to deal with and it can ruin the fun at times, but that's just the game.

All of this is very helpful food for thought. Thanks for that.