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Introduction to Numerology


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[... a "Community" reference.]

Since FM is essentially a numbers game, let's have a peek at some of those pesky numbers. Here are two players from my CSKA Sofia save:

20210606192850_1.thumb.jpg.7f8f81f0075a8a29c32ec3c507b5cf1d.jpg

20210606193112_1.thumb.jpg.4f5c1a36139cc037260d9b3bbfbae7d6.jpg

Just for kicks I also looked up their consistency. They both have the exact same value which is 11.

Now, before I continue, please ponder how well each of these players actually performed at taking penalties. Take your time...

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

Done? Alright, here we go:

- Peñaranda performed well, converting 7 out of 8 penalties.

- Tiago Rodrigues OTOH only converted 1 out of 6! Once he hit the post. 4 times he completely missed the goal, 4 times out of 6!

The question for today, class, is how in the living hell do we get from the attributes to the actual performance? Answers may not include buzzwords like "completely random", "bad luck" or "statistical anomaly". IRL 0 out of 2 may be a statistical anomaly. 1 out of 6 would be considered incompetence.

"Okay, so break into groups, and then, you guys quiz each other."

[Picks up phone and ignores the class until the bell rings.]

Edited by davewolf
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You have 4 factors to consider here. Penalty Taking, Composure, Pressure (a hidden attribute)  and Body Language. In general too, there's less pressure on a player taking the penalty if you're already 3-0 ahead but at 0-0 in the 90th min, it's a different story. Same with the type of match. 3rd Round of the FA cup will be different to a CL match, for example. One puts a lot more pressure on a player than the other.

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I've also convinced myself that a player missing his previous penalty adds to that pressure significantly. I've got no stats to back that up, but my players tend to either score every penalty they shoot, or miss several of them in a row. :D

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 07/06/2021 at 14:41, GreenTriangle said:

Numerology : those two screenshots were taken before the start of the 2020-2021 season. How much time was needed for that team to get at least 14 penalty kicks ? At least an year, I presume, Or even more.

When I decided to post about it, Tiago had already left the club. Hence I loaded an old save for the screenshots.

So what's your problem?

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On 07/06/2021 at 11:30, HUNT3R said:

You have 4 factors to consider here. Penalty Taking, Composure, Pressure (a hidden attribute)  and Body Language. In general too, there's less pressure on a player taking the penalty if you're already 3-0 ahead but at 0-0 in the 90th min, it's a different story. Same with the type of match. 3rd Round of the FA cup will be different to a CL match, for example. One puts a lot more pressure on a player than the other.

Thanks for the reply.

Since I'm a thorough t*sser, I went back and checked the pressure values. Even there Tiago is significantly better (17 to 10 of Peñaranda), still the worse performer.

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A couple of points.

As I already pointed out, IRL, when a player only got 1 of 6 attempts even just on target, nobody would say "I need more data." The manager would simply never ever let that dude take a penalty again. And practically everybody would agree. Maybe even the player himself. (Unless his controversy is very high.)

Also, of course I took into account that there are more attributes involved than just penalty taking. That's why I posted the screenshots with all attributes. And in every single relevant category, according to HUNT3R, Tiago is better, often much better. Yet he's the worse performer.

If you really need more data, I simulated two more seasons, one with Tiago and the other with Peñaranda as penalty taker:

20210607214503_1.thumb.jpg.81092a830e7aa57f6efe789abd09ed8a.jpg

20210607222248_1.thumb.jpg.cb18ecfa709ee48108218af673782221.jpg

Even though Tiago did a lot better and Peñaranda  a lot worse than in my game, Tiago is still worse, although by a small margin.

 

The poing of all this is rather simple. This is one case of many in all the iterations of FM I've been playing where - and keep in mind I'm talking about long-term performance, not a single match - the information provided by the game is pretty much useless as a basis for decision making. One could just as well roll a dice.

Edited by davewolf
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