xG Problems

[ReadingFan82]

I've recently been having a little bit of trouble on my Wolves save as in my team is simply not converting nowhere near as many chances as they should be, but are also very easy to score past at the same time. I know that games are bound to happen where you don't score all your chances and games where your opponents get one chance and convert it to ruin your result, but I feel as if in my save this is happening far too often and is obviously therefore impacting my results quite a lot. I will attach a few screenshots of what I mean. It isn't even necessarily happening against teams that are better than me, where I could understand if there keeper saved chances I would otherwise scored and they had forwards who would only need a half chance to get on the scoresheet, but this has also began to happen against some really low level teams I'm playing as well, which is a big concern for me. Is this something that will just rectify itself once I get players who are just a little bit better than the ones I currently have or is it a more fundamental problem with my tactic? Any help or advice would be really really appreciated  

(Also apologies if this is not the right thread to have this put in, but I wasn't too sure where else I could put it)

[DarJ]

you have a high XG number because you are taking a lot of shots 36 shots with an XG of 3.6 tells me that you are not creating good chance. In the first screenshot you can tell clearly that you created only 1 good chance even if you were unlucky to concede.

the second screenshot is even worse because you didn't create any good chance while the AI created one so you need to look at your tactic and ask yourself how you're going to create better chances and if you're not sure about what to do you can post a screenshot of the tactic here 

[zabyl]

Can you please share your tactic and your 3 attackers' attributes. More info is needed to make a notable comment.

[ReadingFan82]

Hi, just a screenshot of my tactic and my attackers attributes to see what you think.

[zabyl]

High total xG but not many good chances, i think that’s related to higher team mentality-much higher tempo. 

 

Attacking mentality has its own high tempo on default without setting a tempo TI. Increasing tempo quickens player decisions more. And you use a max tempo with attacking mentality. While adjusting the tempo; it should not be ignored how it may affect the decisions.

 

Pay attention on your right flank also. MEZa-WBa could cause defensive problems.

[alerosso]

I also think you will pretty much never actually play out of defence being on attacking mentality, much higher tempo and having both your CBs as BPD. They will more often than not look for hollywood passes which will translate into rushed attacks.

[sporadicsmiles]

xG something you have to take with a pinch of salt sometimes. Really, xG/shot is a bit more indicative of how well your team performs. Look at your graphs for xG. You are creating a lot of very poor chances. Sure, this adds up over time, but each shot is very unlikely to go in. What this tells you is you need to focus on quality over quantity, and not to rely on the xG stat in isolation. There is also a pretty worrying trend that you are conceding some pretty low xG chances, it seems, but you would have to watch the goals you concede to see what is happening there, it is hard to comment on it. 

Looking at your tactic, the obvious culprit is your tempo. It is extremely high, which means everything happens at a million miles an hour, and your players just maybe do not have the time to create nice chances. So the easiest thing to try is to take the tempo down and see what happens. 

You can expect to see less shots, and you may also see your xG drop, but this is not something to worry about. Check the xG vs time graph. You want to see it rise in bigger steps, which means you create less chances, but they are better chances more likely to lead to a goal. 

[ReadingFan82]

On 31/08/2021 at 09:02, zabyl said:

High total xG but not many good chances, i think that’s related to higher team mentality-much higher tempo. 

 

Attacking mentality has its own high tempo on default without setting a tempo TI. Increasing tempo quickens player decisions more. And you use a max tempo with attacking mentality. While adjusting the tempo; it should not be ignored how it may affect the decisions.

 

Pay attention on your right flank also. MEZa-WBa could cause defensive problems.

So are you suggesting that I should maybe lower the tempo slightly or even a lot? Maybe even add work ball into the box with a lower tempo so my players try and work their way into the best position in the area as possible to create less but better chances? And yeah I do see that about the MEZa and WBa but I'm kind of hoping that while sometimes leaving me a bit open down the right hand side it could maybe hopefully lead to overlaps down that side.

[ReadingFan82]

On 31/08/2021 at 11:52, alerosso said:

I also think you will pretty much never actually play out of defence being on attacking mentality, much higher tempo and having both your CBs as BPD. They will more often than not look for hollywood passes which will translate into rushed attacks.

Yeah that's a really good point I've never really thought about that too much myself to be honest so thanks for the input. Do you think I could benefit from lowering the tempo and keeping play out of defence with 2 CB's or I should just remove play out of defence and keep everything as it is currently? 

[Johnny Ace]

Try just turning Tempo down one notch to Urgent, you've got it turned up to 11 there 

Your players look great & like they can handle a high tempo game, you might just be asking them to play a little too high 

See how you get on, you want to be outperforming your XG ideally so keep turning it down until it catches up 

Edited September 1, 2021 by Johnny Ace

[ReadingFan82]

59 minutes ago, sporadicsmiles said:

xG something you have to take with a pinch of salt sometimes. Really, xG/shot is a bit more indicative of how well your team performs. Look at your graphs for xG. You are creating a lot of very poor chances. Sure, this adds up over time, but each shot is very unlikely to go in. What this tells you is you need to focus on quality over quantity, and not to rely on the xG stat in isolation. There is also a pretty worrying trend that you are conceding some pretty low xG chances, it seems, but you would have to watch the goals you concede to see what is happening there, it is hard to comment on it. 

Looking at your tactic, the obvious culprit is your tempo. It is extremely high, which means everything happens at a million miles an hour, and your players just maybe do not have the time to create nice chances. So the easiest thing to try is to take the tempo down and see what happens. 

You can expect to see less shots, and you may also see your xG drop, but this is not something to worry about. Check the xG vs time graph. You want to see it rise in bigger steps, which means you create less chances, but they are better chances more likely to lead to a goal. 

That is very true. To be honest when I first posted this thread about xG I was also trying to see whether or not this was a stat I should take too much into consideration when judging how my teams had been playing of if it was something I shouldn't pay too much attention too. And yeah my worry was probably mainly more with the low xG goals I was conceding. There mainly long range goals or just generally poor chances, but I'm not too sure if that is to do with my tactic or that I don't have enough quality defenders and/or goalkeeper, which is something I am hoping to rectify in the next transfer window in my save depending on shipping a few players out.

It would seem your suggesting that I lower the tempo as others have, maybe even add work ball into box as well? Just to cry and create less but better chances instead of peppering the goal with a lot of poor quality shots unlikely to go in. 

[ReadingFan82]

1 minute ago, Johnny Ace said:

Try just turning Tempo down one notch to Urgent, you've got it turned up to 11 there 

Your players look great & like they can handle a high tempo game, you might just be asking them to play a little too high 

See how you get on, you want to be outperforming your XG ideally so keep turning down until it catches up 

Yeah it seems pretty obvious that's where I'm going wrong if everyone who has seen my tactic suggests that's what I do. Definitely seems like that might be were I'm going so wrong, trying to rush the ball along instead of being a bit more patient and creating better quality chances. Do you also think that I should add work ball into box or should I just leave that for now and see how things play out?

[Johnny Ace]

2 minutes ago, ReadingFan82 said:

Yeah it seems pretty obvious that's where I'm going wrong if everyone who has seen my tactic suggests that's what I do. Definitely seems like that might be were I'm going so wrong, trying to rush the ball along instead of being a bit more patient and creating better quality chances. Do you also think that I should add work ball into box or should I just leave that for now and see how things play out?

Just leave WBIB for now & see how you get on 

I'm not a fan of it, I like scoring from crosses & long shots & only use it to hang on to the ball for a bit if I'm winning 

[Johnny Ace]

9 minutes ago, ReadingFan82 said:

 There mainly long range goals or just generally poor chances, but I'm not too sure if that is to do with my tactic

Just on this point where's your BWM(D) when they're rasping in a long ranger? He should be the guy stopping them, just wonder if a BWM is a tad aggressive for screening the defence before you sell your keeper & backline 

Edited September 1, 2021 by Johnny Ace

[YAMS]

This is a very aggressive tactic, look at that intensity. Your Liverpool 2019/20 on steroids. This would have worked a treat in FM20 but in 21 tactics this intense will burn your team in to the ground. 

As other have said tone down that tempo a notch or five, default tempo for attacking mentality is probably fine 90% of the time. Your RHS is too aggressive. I'd change that WBA to WBS. With the MEZA you could play an IWBS at right back if you fancied something different. I don't particularly like the IFA with a CFA. They are both very individualistic roles. a CFS or maybe PFS to help your counter press might make more sense. Tone down pressing a notch as well, it's too high. 

[zabyl]

1 saat önce, ReadingFan82 said:

So are you suggesting that I should maybe lower the tempo slightly or even a lot? Maybe even add work ball into the box with a lower tempo so my players try and work their way into the best position in the area as possible to create less but better chances? And yeah I do see that about the MEZa and WBa but I'm kind of hoping that while sometimes leaving me a bit open down the right hand side it could maybe hopefully lead to overlaps down that side.

I'm suggesting that you don't need to assing a tempo level right from the start. Set it after when you see if it is not enough fast or slow.

[alerosso]

3 ore fa, ReadingFan82 ha scritto:

Yeah that's a really good point I've never really thought about that too much myself to be honest so thanks for the input. Do you think I could benefit from lowering the tempo and keeping play out of defence with 2 CB's or I should just remove play out of defence and keep everything as it is currently? 

Well it totally depends on how you want your team to play and the players you have at your disposal.

Check your defenders passing, decisions, composure, first touche etc. If they're not really good it can be painful trying to built from the back.

If they're good and you like to patiently built from the back I would keep the play out of defence and at least turn one BPD to a CB while also lowering the mentality/tempo.

Me personally I pretty much never use BPDs especially if I have a good playmaker in the DM/CM

Edited September 1, 2021 by alerosso

[ReadingFan82]

8 hours ago, Johnny Ace said:

Just on this point where's your BWM(D) when they're rasping in a long ranger? He should be the guy stopping them, just wonder if a BWM is a tad aggressive for screening the defence before you sell your keeper & backline 

I've got a new BWM(D) so hopefully he might do a little better, but I am lacking a little depth at centre back and have just under 200 million to spend so might as well spend it on some top players I've had my eyes on for a while.

[ReadingFan82]

6 hours ago, YAMS said:

This is a very aggressive tactic, look at that intensity. Your Liverpool 2019/20 on steroids. This would have worked a treat in FM20 but in 21 tactics this intense will burn your team in to the ground. 

As other have said tone down that tempo a notch or five, default tempo for attacking mentality is probably fine 90% of the time. Your RHS is too aggressive. I'd change that WBA to WBS. With the MEZA you could play an IWBS at right back if you fancied something different. I don't particularly like the IFA with a CFA. They are both very individualistic roles. a CFS or maybe PFS to help your counter press might make more sense. Tone down pressing a notch as well, it's too high. 

To be honest I first tried this tactic or something very similar on a save with Liverpool, which in fairness might have gave me a bit of a false impression of how good it is.

The tempo is now down too just high, so the default for the attacking mentality is now on the default as you've suggested. Do you think that maybe a PFA instead of the CFA could also be beneficial to my team?

[ReadingFan82]

5 hours ago, alerosso said:

Well it totally depends on how you want your team to play and the players you have at your disposal.

Check your defenders passing, decisions, composure, first touche etc. If they're not really good it can be painful trying to built from the back.

If they're good and you like to patiently built from the back I would keep the play out of defence and at least turn one BPD to a CB while also lowering the mentality/tempo.

Me personally I pretty much never use BPDs especially if I have a good playmaker in the DM/CM

To be honest I just want my team to perform well, which I know isn't particularly helpful. I want the play to be fast, quite direct, high pressing, for want of a better term "heavy-metal". 

My defenders are quite good on the ball based on their attributes so I'm sure they'd be capable of playing out from the back, just not 100% sure that is what I'd want to do.

[HUMBL3B33]

On 31/08/2021 at 13:32, zabyl said:

High total xG but not many good chances, i think that’s related to higher team mentality-much higher tempo. 

 

Attacking mentality has its own high tempo on default without setting a tempo TI. Increasing tempo quickens player decisions more. And you use a max tempo with attacking mentality. While adjusting the tempo; it should not be ignored how it may affect the decisions.

 

Pay attention on your right flank also. MEZa-WBa could cause defensive problems.

This as well as @alerosso explained pretty much the core issue. The players in your team at the moment are just hurried to make decisions. At this pace they will often make chances but how good or bad will totally depend upon the opposition they face. 

Having a higher mentality doesn't really mean you'll be attacking. That comes from the roles and duty combination as well as the TIs. However, it is true that you can bump their mentality to be aggressive or passive using the mentality. But the tactic works on it's own to be attacking or defensive on a core basis. 

I Would suggest you to do a little bit of tinkering, make sure you have switched to comprehensive highlights or full match as it gives you time to react in a match. Switch to standard tempo and directness. Then play with mentality and look how attacking or defensive your team looks and behaves with these mentalities. And do this with a lot of different kind of teams. 

This allowed me to notice that i in my Burnley safe can also lose from a Brentford team with no-one good and win against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea filled with superstars. I often switch to a defensive or cautious mentality dragging the games against bigger side. Maybe losing 1-0 or drawing 0-0. But it provides me a chance to stay in the game and pry on the one lapse of concentration moment that happens from them. Otherwise you'll see your player morales going down even if you have conceded just 1 goal and morale is something you can't ignore in this game. 

But even in order to do that you need solid defense. So analyse your defense in team comparison to make sure what kind of defense you would be good at whether its high line high pressure or low line passive defending. Now depending on that, you devise an attacking plan. As a result you'll see yourself conceding less quality chances in turn having a good morale and allowing your team to stay in the match. And then be able to perform at their best. 

[alerosso]

I also think you don't really need an attacking mentality when playing "heavy-metal". You're already looking to win the ball very high up the pitch which is quite demanding on your players, asking them to also rush everything as soon as they get the ball back doesn't sound like a great idea to me. You're basically asking them to go crazy for the full match. Maybe a really top side like Liverpool can even pull it off but it's not for every team. It can also lead you to get punished on the counter quite a lot since most of your players will be pressing very high up the pitch. If the other team manages to get past your very aggressive pressing you will get easily exposed.

 

As weird as it may sound, I find attacking mentality to better fit difensive strategies with very low lines, as it will encourage your players to break on counter taking more risks and playing in a more fast and direct fashion

[Johnny Ace]

11 minutes ago, alerosso said:

As weird as it may sound, I find attacking mentality to better fit difensive strategies with very low lines, as it will encourage your players to break on counter taking more risks and playing in a more fast and direct fashion

Nah, that's not weird at all, the higher up the mentalities the more your team will look to counter. Though, it''s really not obvious in game at all but logical when you think about it. There are loads of threads on here from over the years from people failing to play counter attacking football on defensive mentalities 

[zabyl]

2 saat önce, Johnny Ace said:

Nah, that's not weird at all, the higher up the mentalities the more your team will look to counter. Though, it''s really not obvious in game at all but logical when you think about it. There are loads of threads on here from over the years from people failing to play counter attacking football on defensive mentalities 

I think SI had changed the names of team mentalities because of this misunderstanding.

[Johnny Ace]

1 minute ago, zabyl said:

I think SI had changed the names of team mentalities because of this misunderstanding.

Yep yep, Counter was anything but 

[Tsuru]

3 horas atrás, Johnny Ace disse:

here are loads of threads on here from over the years from people failing to play counter attacking football on defensive mentalities 

It was the "issue of the month" some time ago, loads of threads complaining about not being able to play defensively with lower mentalities. The fun part is that it was the issue of the month every month 

The names of the mentalities are still not helpful too, although they improved since FM 17. Because they still lead some people on thinking that "Positive" is necessary attacking football and "Defensive" is defensive football. But there is much more under the hood than a simple mentality setting.

[Johnny Ace]

25 minutes ago, Tsuru said:

It was the "issue of the month" some time ago, loads of threads complaining about not being able to play defensively with lower mentalities. The fun part is that it was the issue of the month every month 

The names of the mentalities are still not helpful too, although they improved since FM 17. Because they still lead some people on thinking that "Positive" is necessary attacking football and "Defensive" is defensive football. But there is much more under the hood than a simple mentality setting.

It's a tough one for SI but what's the alternative?

You're right, it's best not to think Attacking =Attacking football, Defensive = Defensive football 

Cautious & Defensive are great for possession based tactics because of the lower player mentalities, but then you have to balance the roles, duties & TIs so your team's not too blunt & is just hanging onto the ball in your own third

It's why counter attacks work so well, the higher up the mentalities you go. On Cautious & below, the players are thinking "safety - don't lose the ball"  so won't initiate counter attacks as often where on higher mentalities, players have more attacking mentalities & are more willing to launch a counter

Maybe just scrap team mentality all together & have overall player mentality instead then have us manually set the tempo, passing, lines & all that ourselves  

[themadsheep2001]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Ace said:

It's a tough one for SI but what's the alternative?

You're right, it's best not to think Attacking =Attacking football, Defensive = Defensive football 

Cautious & Defensive are great for possession based tactics because of the lower player mentalities, but then you have to balance the roles, duties & TIs so your team's not too blunt & is just hanging onto the ball in your own third

It's why counter attacks work so well, the higher up the mentalities you go. On Cautious & below, the players are thinking "safety - don't lose the ball"  so won't initiate counter attacks as often where on higher mentalities, players have more attacking mentalities & are more willing to launch a counter

Maybe just scrap team mentality all together & have overall player mentality instead then have us manually set the tempo, passing, lines & all that ourselves  

Easiest thing to do is rename it as risk, as that is what it largely controls

[Tsuru]

19 minutos atrás, Johnny Ace disse:

Maybe just scrap team mentality all together & have overall player mentality instead then have us manually set the tempo, passing, lines & all that ourselves  

Maybe they could create a more intuitive tactical creator - you set up some guidelines for the style you want and it gives you some insights on TIs, PIs and maybe even roles and duties. It would be liking ask a teacher or even your assistant´s opinion IRL, so you can work from there. But I won´t think it will happen.

I already used Cautious moving up the lines and with aggressive roles/duties and it worked well, the names of the mentalities are in fact very misleading.

[YAMS]

16 hours ago, ReadingFan82 said:

To be honest I first tried this tactic or something very similar on a save with Liverpool, which in fairness might have gave me a bit of a false impression of how good it is.

The tempo is now down too just high, so the default for the attacking mentality is now on the default as you've suggested. Do you think that maybe a PFA instead of the CFA could also be beneficial to my team?

PFA would be better than CFA, defintiely. I would prefer a DLFA though I think. A PFA would help with your counter press/general high pressing but the DLFA would create more in a 4-3-3 shape.