Show me one season where the human player is +25% on their xG instead of the opposite.

[Teferi]

So tired of seasons like this. In 30+ seasons of playing FM since the xG table is made available, I have NEVER seen a single season where the human player gets a significant positive variance. It's always either you get what you create, or you're significantly underperforming for no reason.

It's almost like the game has a soft cap on how many goals you're allowed to score, so if your xG performance is way too good for its liking, it just decides to turn your Haaland into prime Benteke.

This is completely unrealistic btw. There have never been a single season in the Bundesliga or the Premier League since stats are available where the eventual winners significantly underperforms their xG. The fact that the FM engine thinks that you can do that while playing a good tactic with world class players, is a joke no matter how you frame it.

I get that the game is "too easy", since players can still easily win the league while being down 10+ points on xPts. But the game is first and foremost a simulator, and a lot of its value relies on accuracy and realism. The current xG distribution, compared to what actually has been happening in real life where the best teams overperform their xG in more than half of the seasons, simply doesn't seem satisfactory.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Teferi

[Teferi]

There have been a lot of talks about how the game doesn't distinguish between the player and the AI. Well the game doesn't need to specifically do that in order to create a disadvantage for the player.

The AI doesn't actually do very well on xG to begin with, so it would very rarely hit the ceiling of a diminishing returns curve, as an outlandish example. So the existence of such a system in the model can almost only be harmful for the player.

[HUNT3R]

I have many seasons like this. Here's two screenshots I have taken of it. One is with Tottenham after around half a season. The other, Milan in FM22.

[DarJ]

It doesn't matter what league I'm playing in or what team I'm managing I always tend to over perform my xg at least goal wise

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by DarJ

[eXistenZ]

While offcours this topic is mostly one of frustration, and its difficult to provide help without information (or if the OP doesnt want help but just vent), I do share the feeling that this year feels like early FM10: You need 10 shots to score while the AI only needs two. Now most of this is gutfeeling but the xg gives at least some indication these days

And based on that i made my own topic in the tactics section. Although 100 views but no replies make me think that it genuinly is just a ME problem, or you just need to be lucky and tactics dont matter..... Would offcours be helpgull if the people who do overperform their xG tell what they do, as just posting tabke screenshots dont help either

[HUNT3R]

11 minutes ago, eXistenZ said:

as just posting tabke screenshots dont help either

I posted what the OP asked to see.

[themadsheep2001]

53 minutes ago, eXistenZ said:

While offcours this topic is mostly one of frustration, and its difficult to provide help without information (or if the OP doesnt want help but just vent), I do share the feeling that this year feels like early FM10: You need 10 shots to score while the AI only needs two. Now most of this is gutfeeling but the xg gives at least some indication these days

And based on that i made my own topic in the tactics section. Although 100 views but no replies make me think that it genuinly is just a ME problem, or you just need to be lucky and tactics dont matter..... Would offcours be helpgull if the people who do overperform their xG tell what they do, as just posting tabke screenshots dont help either

OP literally asked to see screenshots, OP got screenshots. 

[eXistenZ]

13 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

OP literally asked to see screenshots, OP got screenshots. 

OP was also pedantic and unhelpfull, doesnt mean the replies have to be.

[themadsheep2001]

8 minutes ago, eXistenZ said:

OP was also pedantic and unhelpfull, doesnt mean the replies have to be.

People can't help without any information - (League, team, quality, tactical setup etc). The post wasn't looking for help and was just a rant with mistruths, which were quickly proved incorrect. 

[eXistenZ]

5 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

People can't help without any information - (League, team, quality, tactical setup etc). The post wasn't looking for help and was just a rant with mistruths, which were quickly proved incorrect. 

Well yes... i highlighted the lack of information from the OP. is literally my first sentence.....

Im just of the opinion that you could post a table AND say "pay attention to xyz", or "I do xyz to imporve my finishing"

[themadsheep2001]

1 minute ago, eXistenZ said:

Well yes... i highlighted the lack of information from the OP. is literally my first sentence.....

Im just of the opinion that you could post a table AND say "pay attention to xyz", or "I do xyz to imporve my finishing"

You can't do the latter with any qualification of what they are doing because it could be irrelevant to their system/approach. It's not for others to play guessing games when people choose to be unhelpful. And given the OP hasn't even come back this thread can be locked 

[santy001]

You can be massively over on your XG though, its largely going to be somewhat down to luck and the players you utilise.