From r/footballmanagergames "FM23 Problem: Generated players rarely achieve their potential" (not my simulation)

[SOH972]

I saw a post from this guy on reddit, who says he ran a simulation for over 10 years on FM23 and noticed that most newgens over 25 didn't reach their potentials. This shouldn't be rare, but the thing is that most of them didn't even reach 150 CA, and some even stayed at below 100 (WTF?), also all of them have 175 PA+.

Has anyone else, who has the in-game editor to verify it, experienced something similar. As of myself, I've never seen these much newgens being underdeveloped on my FM21 save.

Here's the link to the original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/footballmanagergames/comments/z5z8hk/fm_23_problem_generated_players_are_rarely/

The pics from the guy's save:

Edited November 28, 2022 by SOH972

[albertocerdeira.4]

Oh! WHAT A SURPRISE!

 

Waiting for SI to tell you that is something that they are working and it's hard to solve as it is a very difficult area that can compromise the Game Balance Stability. 

Last year was the same and they don't have any intention to solve it, if you feel better about

[eXistenZ]

9 hours ago, SOH972 said:

. As of myself, I've never seen these much newgens being underdeveloped on my FM21 save.

Thats because on FM21 young players grew like cabbage, which they (rightly) toned down.

However they over corrected now.... I skipped FM22 myself and now it does feel (judging by the progress tracker) young players do barely grow

There was a thread on here somewhere about national teams who  in the future barely play youngsters. Mainly because they overvalue reputation. You can imagine the same AI doing the same on club level, hence not playing enough youngsters, which stops their development.....

[herne79]

So in the main, players at large clubs in the top leagues achieved a high CA whereas players who are at smaller clubs in lower ranked leagues didn't.

Bearing in mind that match time at a relevant level is important for player development, this seems about right.

There are well documented issues with player development but I don't think this experiment shows it very well.

[el_manayer]

11 minutes ago, herne79 said:

So in the main, players at large clubs in the top leagues achieved a high CA whereas players who are at smaller clubs in lower ranked leagues didn't.

Bearing in mind that match time at a relevant level is important for player development, this seems about right.

There are well documented issues with player development but I don't think this experiment shows it very well.

Players ending up not playing in top clubs is probably the consequence of them not reaching high CA and not the reason, since you don't know where those players were developing prior to that.

[santy001]

There shouldn't be an expectation that players will reach their potential. It's been many years now since there was a change in FM where player potentials probably should be higher than the level they attain. With real players if you get someone come to your club who has a 170 PA but has never played above the second tier and they're approaching 30 we leave that PA as it is from a research perspective. Its a reflection of failing to reach that potential but allowing for a very small chance of a player having a late career push to their peak.

If you run random spot checks on player PA's over the course of 20/30 years you'll probably see some very high PA players who never make it beyond semi-professional levels. High PA players never getting the recognition and breaks at the right time in their careers isn't a failure but rather a reflection of reality.

In this particular instance it could be evidence of an issue and equally it could be evidence of a somewhat poorly set-up save and then the question is whether something may need to be done on saves where there isn't perhaps the best set-up. 

 

 

[eXistenZ]

59 minutes ago, santy001 said:

In this particular instance it could be evidence of an issue and equally it could be evidence of a somewhat poorly set-up save and then the question is whether something may need to be done on saves where there isn't perhaps the best set-up. 

 

Whcich is definitly a possibility, but it does look awfully similar to this well documented thread...

 

 

[SOH972]

5 hours ago, albertocerdeira.4 said:

Oh! WHAT A SURPRISE!

 

Waiting for SI to tell you that is something that they are working and it's hard to solve as it is a very difficult area that can compromise the Game Balance Stability. 

Last year was the same and they don't have any intention to solve it, if you feel better about

If by any chance, they happen to patch this issue, would it affect ongoing saves or just the new ones after the update?

[Huey Lewis]

1 hour ago, eXistenZ said:

Whcich is definitly a possibility, but it does look awfully similar to this well documented thread...

 

 

The thread where the person in the community who has tested it more than anyone outside of SI said:

"the accurate representation of player development has massively improved in FM23" and "There is no issue with young players being too weak (low CA). Main issue is a too low reputation."

https://community.sigames.com/forums/topic/568836-fm23-still-too-many-old-players-in-squads-in-future-and-not-enough-youth-development/?do=findComment&comment=13796383

That's part of the problem. No-one tends to read anything beyond the headline. Even with that reddit thread there's not really any substance in there beyond 'all these players haven't hit their PA' which would be a bigger bug if they DID. You need to look at overall numbers of players within a certain CA range over time to see if that's causing the world to become unbalanced, not post a handful of players with a 170+ PA and say things are broken.

At game start there's only 20 odd players with a 170CA or above, only five of which are younger than 27 - how many are at this point in the referenced save? 

[albertocerdeira.4]

hace 20 horas, Huey Lewis dijo:

The thread where the person in the community who has tested it more than anyone outside of SI said:

"the accurate representation of player development has massively improved in FM23" and "There is no issue with young players being too weak (low CA). Main issue is a too low reputation."

https://community.sigames.com/forums/topic/568836-fm23-still-too-many-old-players-in-squads-in-future-and-not-enough-youth-development/?do=findComment&comment=13796383

That's part of the problem. No-one tends to read anything beyond the headline. Even with that reddit thread there's not really any substance in there beyond 'all these players haven't hit their PA' which would be a bigger bug if they DID. You need to look at overall numbers of players within a certain CA range over time to see if that's causing the world to become unbalanced, not post a handful of players with a 170+ PA and say things are broken.

At game start there's only 20 odd players with a 170CA or above, only five of which are younger than 27 - how many are at this point in the referenced save?

That guy also tells that for having a "good" balance you need to load a lot of leagues, buy the editor, use it, and not expect to find a difference in the big leagues or countries.

That guy also make a profit of making mods and if he tells that the problem is critical even with his mods nobody would pay for them

I cannot find an excuse for having most of national squads in 2030 with 90% players +27 years old, after one year with the same issue. I am not expecting to most of youngsters to achieve all of their potential, but it is unacceptable the lack of development of youngsters.

 

But remember, it is hard because they could compromise the game balance, as if the game balance in a long term save wasn't completely broken 

Edited November 29, 2022 by albertocerdeira.4

[Huey Lewis]

Younger players not being picked for national team squads is a reputation issue, not due to their ability - so isn't related to their CA development which is what this thread is about. 

[Dotsworthy]

On 28/11/2022 at 21:54, albertocerdeira.4 said:

That guy also tells that for having a "good" balance you need to load a lot of leagues, buy the editor, use it, and not expect to find a difference in the big leagues or countries.

That guy also make a profit of making mods and if he tells that the problem is critical even with his mods nobody would pay for them.

The mod is free, the person in question has a Patreon. 

While there is definitely a problem with youth players appearing in squads, I'm pretty sure the number of high potential players is a lot higher after a few years, so it's not a huge deal if a smaller percentage reach that potential as long as the overall balance is right.

It's a bit off though, and I hope SI make the right fixes.

 

[wazzaflow10]

On 28/11/2022 at 05:55, santy001 said:

There shouldn't be an expectation that players will reach their potential. It's been many years now since there was a change in FM where player potentials probably should be higher than the level they attain. With real players if you get someone come to your club who has a 170 PA but has never played above the second tier and they're approaching 30 we leave that PA as it is from a research perspective. Its a reflection of failing to reach that potential but allowing for a very small chance of a player having a late career push to their peak.

If you run random spot checks on player PA's over the course of 20/30 years you'll probably see some very high PA players who never make it beyond semi-professional levels. High PA players never getting the recognition and breaks at the right time in their careers isn't a failure but rather a reflection of reality.

In this particular instance it could be evidence of an issue and equally it could be evidence of a somewhat poorly set-up save and then the question is whether something may need to be done on saves where there isn't perhaps the best set-up. 

 

 

You know if we took all the previous FM games its basically a book of yours and other researcher's work documenting every player's PA over time. How many high PA players from the early to mid 2000s never panned out? Why would this game be any different?

Edited November 30, 2022 by wazzaflow10

[santy001]

52 minutes ago, wazzaflow10 said:

You know if we took all the previous FM games its basically a book of yours and other researcher's work documenting every player's PA over time. How many high PA players from the early to mid 2000s never panned out? Why would this game be any different?

I'll be honest I don't know if there's supposed to be a point in there somewhere, but it's not coming across. For some further information, I've been a researcher since around 2012 and there have been changes with how we regard PA over that time. I don't remember exactly when the change was but I feel it was closer to 5 than 10 years ago. Typically, there was a tendency to decrease players PA over time. So as Ronaldinho got older and his ability declined, his PA would drop as well. A line of thought which would be at age X what is the players potential, rather than what was the lifetime potential of that player. This applied to players who never hit the heights their earlier PA would have suggested they could hit either, so most players would enter the database with their PA at a high point and deteriorate across the years. Now this is generally something we wouldn't look to be the norm. Revisions down may still happen based on further watching of the player. 

[wazzaflow10]

1 hour ago, santy001 said:

I'll be honest I don't know if there's supposed to be a point in there somewhere, but it's not coming across. For some further information, I've been a researcher since around 2012 and there have been changes with how we regard PA over that time. I don't remember exactly when the change was but I feel it was closer to 5 than 10 years ago. Typically, there was a tendency to decrease players PA over time. So as Ronaldinho got older and his ability declined, his PA would drop as well. A line of thought which would be at age X what is the players potential, rather than what was the lifetime potential of that player. This applied to players who never hit the heights their earlier PA would have suggested they could hit either, so most players would enter the database with their PA at a high point and deteriorate across the years. Now this is generally something we wouldn't look to be the norm. Revisions down may still happen based on further watching of the player. 

apologies. Was tending to a child and obviously wrote a bunch of gibberish.

If you think of each FM game as a database for what has been researched over the years you can set up a little test. Take each real player aged 16-21 and look at their PA and then compare it to what their CA is when they hit 25-30. How many of those players hit their 16-21 year old PA? I know with multiple years there's some sort of summarization needed but I think average would suffice.  

[Prej]

*cough* Newgen wingbacks *cough*

[Welshace]

On 28/11/2022 at 21:54, albertocerdeira.4 said:

That guy also tells that for having a "good" balance you need to load a lot of leagues, buy the editor, use it, and not expect to find a difference in the big leagues or countries.

That guy also make a profit of making mods and if he tells that the problem is critical even with his mods nobody would pay for them

I cannot find an excuse for having most of national squads in 2030 with 90% players +27 years old, after one year with the same issue. I am not expecting to most of youngsters to achieve all of their potential, but it is unacceptable the lack of development of youngsters.

 

But remember, it is hard because they could compromise the game balance, as if the game balance in a long term save wasn't completely broken 

You said you were almost done with the game a couple of times a few weeks ago.. are we getting any nearer?

 

Looking at your post history, it look like you take enjoyment from constantly complaining about a game you seem to hate and yet still play

[albertocerdeira.4]

hace 4 horas, Welshace dijo:

You said you were almost done with the game a couple of times a few weeks ago.. are we getting any nearer?

 

Looking at your post history, it look like you take enjoyment from constantly complaining about a game you seem to hate and yet still play

I've been without playing since the post, but if for you the point is what I do instead the actual quality of the game... I have nothing to discuss.

 

If for you it's normal the current state of the game in terms of youth development and the generating process of newgens... I have nothing to discuss.

 

I only want the game to improve, you prefer to kiss a billionarie company ass

[Parmie]

Anecdotally having gone 8 seasons deep into a lower league save. 

There appears to be many players in their early-mid twenties that my scouts report as low CA and still high PA. e.g. Vanarama CA but still with Championship/Premiership PA.

When I have reviewed why this is, a theme I noticed is the lack of competitive games. So the potential problems:

• if I believe the scout assessments, a league club would never loan a Vanarama CA level player to give them games for development
• The U23 league/Papa John's is insufficient to develop the players to a lower league standard
• The high PA encourages Prem teams to retain the player for longer

So the causes can be across,

• bad scouts in the lower league get the CA wrong, so they are good enough but the AI doesn't think so
• U23 competitions need to give more development benefits
• the gap between PA and CA is too wide.

I wonder myself at how a coach or scout could realistically think someone only showing non-league ability at 18 would be a premier league player. I watched Frank Lampard at 17 playing at Swansea and everyone could see how good he was (current ability at that age), to then give you the potential view he might reach as he got older.

[Overmars]

On 01/12/2022 at 11:00, Parmie said:

So the causes can be across,

• bad scouts in the lower league get the CA wrong, so they are good enough but the AI doesn't think so
• U23 competitions need to give more development benefits
• the gap between PA and CA is too wide.

I think it's a simple case of it being too difficult to get CA to bump up a few points. In FM22 and FM23, a 20 year old could play an entire season and not improve at all. I understand them not improving to Premier League standard while playing in lower leagues, but not improving at all doesn't seem realistic either. If you do anything for a year at age 20 then you're probably going to get better at doing that thing. You might not become amazing because your level of competition will likely limit you, but you'd almost have to be better than the 19 year old version of yourself.