The game is a lot about "luck" what's your take on it?

[Ngoc]

I played the exact match 4 times in a row: instant-match with the same team and the same match plan, and I got 4 different results 1 lost, 1 won, and two draws.

In this case, I understand the 2 teams were probably quite similar in strength, but then it feels like it's all about luck. You can improve your chance by 5% or 10% if you tweak something here and there, but you can actually lose to a much weaker team if you are just unlucky.

I know it is like real life, but I am not sure I am crazy about my game to be like real life. it feels like it should be a little bit less "about luck." Or at least at the end of the game, I would like to see a value that is the value of morale+sharpness+condition+ability of my team vs. the other team (below the score) a hard number where I can compare the apple to apple the 2 team

my team had a matching value of 12400 their team had a matching value of 11000 the match ended 2-0 or 1-1 whatever at least I know where I stand. Luck is okay after all but some hard number is always much appreciated

[wazzaflow10]

35 minutes ago, Ngoc said:

I played the exact match 4 times in a row: instant-match with the same team and the same match plan, and I got 4 different results 1 lost, 1 won, and two draws.

In this case, I understand the 2 teams were probably quite similar in strength, but then it feels like it's all about luck. You can improve your chance by 5% or 10% if you tweak something here and there, but you can actually lose to a much weaker team if you are just unlucky.

I know it is like real life, but I am not sure I am crazy about my game to be like real life. it feels like it should be a little bit less "about luck." Or at least at the end of the game, I would like to see a value that is the value of morale+sharpness+condition+ability of my team vs. the other team (below the score) a hard number where I can compare the apple to apple the 2 team

my team had a matching value of 12400 their team had a matching value of 11000 the match ended 2-0 or 1-1 whatever at least I know where I stand. Luck is okay after all but some hard number is always much appreciated

I don't know if they need to give a hard number as much as give you more feedback as to why maybe you were unlucky v complacent v anxious/nervous through player feedback. I think the RNG is out of whack for away teams honestly.  

[OxfordUnitedFC]

Football irl does involve a lot of luck.  I always say there’s not much point playing the same match multiple times and expecting to see realistic outcomes. Years ago I used to replay games when I thought I got a really dodgy result but I never replay games anymore. I just take the L and move on and I find it’s a lot less stressful and rewarding.

Also if it was the same result in all 4 games people would say it’s scripted.

Edited December 20, 2022 by OxfordUnitedFC

[Ghost77]

I would say instant result is more about luck, because you as a manager are not in the match and your influence, your decisions are a major factors

[Ngoc]

there is still a manager in the match you select it under staff/responsibilities

if you assign a guy to pep talks and touchline instruction with High People motivation and high tactical knowledge

and you assign a guy to Opposition instruction  with high tactical knowledge

as well as set up specific Match Plan you can still be quite in control or at least hope that the people you hired does a decent job limiting the possible "good" influence of a full match down to a 5/10% max of better result

so I don't think there is that much more luck my decision are 50% done in the match plan and 50% left to competent (supposedly) replacements.

[TheAwesomeGem]

There is a thing called the butterfly effect. Tiny changes ends up making huge impact. It's what makes FM fun and it's the opposite of being scripted. Every in-depth simulation needs to take account of the butterfly effect.

[forameuss]

I'm not sure anyone really wants the game to turn into Top Trumps where biggest number always wins.  Football isn't like that, and if it was there would be little to no point in playing as anything other than the strongest side.

[enigmatic]

Football is a lot about luck, and it'd be even more about luck if managers stuck to preplanned changes.

[DarJ]

I don't think it's about luck. I think it's more the fact that two games are never the same even if it is played by the same player. So in football manager I think the way it works is that before you start the game, a result is calculated the as you start the game, every event that happens in the match triggers a recalculation so for example you get to the game and give your team talk, the team talk affects the moral of your player and the game will recalculate the result again; a player picks a yellow card, the game recalculates the result. A big one is making substitutions, many people will tell you not to make subs when winning because you will end up losing but the reality is that your subs will affect the game because it's going to trigger the engine to recalculate the result and it could go in your favour or against you etc so you are always able to affect the outcome of the match based on the things you do during games

Edited December 21, 2022 by DarJ

[eXistenZ]

I dont believe in scripting per se, but I am kinda scpetical when for example an AI keeper who has averaged 6.8 throughout the season, suddenly gets an 8.5 against your team and stops 5 clearcut chanches... That just reads like the game going "im going to stop you now".

 

If a runner has a day where he is 20% faster than his average, we're not gonna say "oh he is in good shape", no we're gonna rightly think he took something

[DarJ]

40 minutes ago, eXistenZ said:

but I am kinda scpetical when for example an AI keeper who has averaged 6.8 throughout the season, suddenly gets an 8.5 against your team and stops 5 clearcut chanches... That just reads like the game going "im going to stop you now".

It's just the fact the tactic the human manager make tend to have way more shots on average than the AI and average rating for the GK seem to be linked to the amount of save they make so if your team had 30 shots and scored 4 goals but the made 20 saves their average rating will be towards 8 

[eXistenZ]

23 minutes ago, DarJ said:

It's just the fact the tactic the human manager make tend to have way more shots on average than the AI and average rating for the GK seem to be linked to the amount of save they make so if your team had 30 shots and scored 4 goals but the made 20 saves their average rating will be towards 8 

that doesnt get you an 8+ rating 7.5 maybe sure, but when you draw 0-0  because the totally average AI goalie of a midtable unremarkable dutch club chose that particular day to be Courtois and Neuer fused into one, yeah im gonna be skeptical.

[CFuller]

To be fair, even an average Premier League goalkeeper (e.g. Robert Sanchez, Bernd Leno) might have 1, 2, maybe 3 'blinders' per season - and a few stinkers per season as well. They might have a 6.8 average rating, but they won't put in a 6.8 rating in every game.

People only really notice those AI goalkeepers having blinders when they happen against their teams. They don't bother checking if they happen against other AI teams (they do).

[Neil Brock]

The thing is, when bad 'luck' goes against you during a match, a manager has lots of tools to attempt to influence that. Be it shouts, tactical changes, substitutions etc. 

A match will never play out exactly the same, so depending on what happens, you need to adapt accordingly. 

[enigmatic]

1 hour ago, Renyy said:

Not understanding the factors doesn't make it luck. 

Sure, if you want to go down that route then if you have perfect knowledge of everything there's going to happen there's no luck at all in anything from football to casino games.

Football managers don't have perfect knowledge of how a game's going to unfold though, they just set their sides up in the way they believe will give them the best possible chance, and if that strategy succeeds only because the opposition miss a series of sitters, get a man sent of for a two footer and then concede a 30 yarder from a player that doesn't even score them in training, those aren't factors they understood would play out in that way, or things they would expect to happen again if they played the same way against the same opponent next week.

 

3 hours ago, CFuller said:

To be fair, even an average Premier League goalkeeper (e.g. Robert Sanchez, Bernd Leno) might have 1, 2, maybe 3 'blinders' per season - and a few stinkers per season as well. They might have a 6.8 average rating, but they won't put in a 6.8 rating in every game.

People only really notice those AI goalkeepers having blinders when they happen against their teams. They don't bother checking if they happen against other AI teams (they do).

Not to mention that goalkeeper ratings in FM are nonsense anyway...

[eXistenZ]

5 hours ago, CFuller said:

To be fair, even an average Premier League goalkeeper (e.g. Robert Sanchez, Bernd Leno) might have 1, 2, maybe 3 'blinders' per season - and a few stinkers per season as well. They might have a 6.8 average rating, but they won't put in a 6.8 rating in every game.

People only really notice those AI goalkeepers having blinders when they happen against their teams. They don't bother checking if they happen against other AI teams (they do).

 

Who says i dont track them?

 

Last 5 ratings of the AI goalkeeper of my last opponent in random order

6.6

6.3

8.0

7.4

6.6

Take a wild guess which of those was against me

[Viking]

If a 6.6 average goalkeeper suddenly is a 7.5+ against me and I lose, I reload the game. No second thought about it. I don't care if it's super realistic and the finest simulation of whatever is going on on the pitch to date. Also, If it is up to TaCticS, what tactic make strikers shoot point blanc shots into the hands of goalkeepers and where do I download it?

[The_jagster]

Of course there's a lot of luck, otherwise the better side always wins, whether that's FM or real life.

What you can do is put yourself in a position so that an unlikely long range shot that goes in is less likely to be the winner and merely the first goal in a loss and so on. Kudos to anyone that reloads the game if they win when their small striker with terrible heading manages to convert a cross or they are outplayed but happen to win because it feels unfair.

If anything I wish there was more luck and less influence of morale on performances.

[Pafnus]

Think about what if Argentina and France  play final match again.. would it be 2-2 again ? Will you bet 2-2 or draw because of recent score?

 

Football is not like that.. every game is different.

[The3points]

Average GKs can go off in one match. Look at someone like Fraser Forster who was great when Southampton played Arsenal. It's quite frustrationg but you have to deal with it