Developing Players - Rapid Regression

[XanderMD53]

I have a CB (22 y/o) who will be in demand with all the big clubs in Europe this summer.

I have had him at two clubs (Fluminense and Sevilla) since he was 17 y/o and have been playing him as a regular starter in these five years.

I was checking out his ability progress on the training development tab, and was startled to see what has happened in the last month.

I don' get how he can spend 10 months progressing (first season of champions league football) and then lose all those gains in a month.

No injury. No obvious issues. Playing week in week out. Just find it so weird. I expect some natural fluctuation but these seems abnormal.

Can anyone guide me. Is it just random?

 

 

[enigmatic]

I think that ability graph is pretty meaningless tbh. What's actually happened over the last month is his Agility, Dribbling, First Touch and Leadership all got very slightly better...

[XanderMD53]

1 hour ago, enigmatic said:

I think that ability graph is pretty meaningless tbh. What's actually happened over the last month is his Agility, Dribbling, First Touch and Leadership all got very slightly better...

Hmm I tend to agree with you but there must be a reason SI put it in the game. Surely it has to be somewhat reflective of what has gone on.

[eXistenZ]

The progress graph is  not just growth but also takes into account form

 

So it looks he had a really good run of form from september to january, but has now regressed to the mean and his "october-form' iis his average as it is back climbing

while some of his attributes had slight improvement, it does say no significant change. On one hand players grow more slowly and longer (aka when they are older) compared to previous fm's, but im thinking he is very close to his potential. His professional personality is another reason why he could have hit his ceiling this early.

 

what does your coach say about his progress?

[The_jagster]

The ability graph is unreliable as it's based on your assistant's subjective opinion and if the rest of your team improves too then a player can get better with no corresponding rise in star rating. And if a player is on a good run of form he tends to have a better star rating even though his attributes are the same, I have had a player fluctuate from 3 stars to 4 and a half stars and back over the same season despite his attributes remaining flat.

[Furmanbp]

18 hours ago, XanderMD53 said:

Hmm I tend to agree with you but there must be a reason SI put it in the game. Surely it has to be somewhat reflective of what has gone on.

no there does not have to be a reason, or reason is it just look more cool. SI should tell us how all mechanic work exactly so there is no more wondering and guessing. But I do not see that happening. 

 

18 hours ago, eXistenZ said:

The progress graph is  not just growth but also takes into account form

 

So it looks he had a really good run of form from september to january, but has now regressed to the mean and his "october-form' iis his average as it is back climbing

while some of his attributes had slight improvement, it does say no significant change. On one hand players grow more slowly and longer (aka when they are older) compared to previous fm's, but im thinking he is very close to his potential. His professional personality is another reason why he could have hit his ceiling this early.

 

what does your coach say about his progress?

Are you sure it takie form into account? Do you have any evidences of that? Taking "form" into progress account, that would be vey weird!

 

7 hours ago, The_jagster said:

The ability graph is unreliable as it's based on your assistant's subjective opinion and if the rest of your team improves too then a player can get better with no corresponding rise in star rating. And if a player is on a good run of form he tends to have a better star rating even though his attributes are the same, I have had a player fluctuate from 3 stars to 4 and a half stars and back over the same season despite his attributes remaining flat.

And I would give most credit to that answer. From my organoleptic measures, this is how this graph work. Which is very stupid. There should be some kind of neutral static benchmark so you can always compare your player to, so no misleading downward progres graph. 

[eXistenZ]

2 hours ago, Furmanbp said:

Are you sure it takie form into account? Do you have any evidences of that? Taking "form" into progress account, that would be vey weird!

its basicly the same what Jagster said. If a player is in good form, his star rating goes up, even if his attributes dont change. And the game thinks "star rating goes up, so he must be improving", hence why you see it on the progress tab.

Then when his star rating goes back down (aka regressing to the mean), the progress bar follows.

 

So yeah in a sense it takes form into account But again, in your specific example I just think your player has already reached his potential and just had a stint of good form early in the season and is now back to his "average" form

[The_jagster]

7 hours ago, The_jagster said:

The ability graph is unreliable as it's based on your assistant's subjective opinion and if the rest of your team improves too then a player can get better with no corresponding rise in star rating. And if a player is on a good run of form he tends to have a better star rating even though his attributes are the same, I have had a player fluctuate from 3 stars to 4 and a half stars and back over the same season despite his attributes remaining flat.

As one can see his attributes didn't jump in the same way his ability did

[XanderMD53]

Wonderful - thank you everyone for your helpful feedback! I'm less concerned now!

[XanderMD53]

2 hours ago, The_jagster said:

As one can see his attributes didn't jump in the same way his ability did

Perfect demonstration - thank you.

[XanderMD53]

21 hours ago, eXistenZ said:

The progress graph is  not just growth but also takes into account form

 

So it looks he had a really good run of form from september to january, but has now regressed to the mean and his "october-form' iis his average as it is back climbing

while some of his attributes had slight improvement, it does say no significant change. On one hand players grow more slowly and longer (aka when they are older) compared to previous fm's, but im thinking he is very close to his potential. His professional personality is another reason why he could have hit his ceiling this early.

 

what does your coach say about his progress?

Makes a lot of sense, he went on a quite frankly ridiculous goal scoring run from corners and freekicks early season, which boosted his match ratings. The goals have since dried up, understandably! Thanks - makes a lot of sense now

[Furmanbp]

9 hours ago, eXistenZ said:

its basicly the same what Jagster said. If a player is in good form, his star rating goes up, even if his attributes dont change. And the game thinks "star rating goes up, so he must be improving", hence why you see it on the progress tab.

Then when his star rating goes back down (aka regressing to the mean), the progress bar follows.

 

So yeah in a sense it takes form into account But again, in your specific example I just think your player has already reached his potential and just had a stint of good form early in the season and is now back to his "average" form

no mate, star rating going up from many reasons, if you buy the best player, then all star ratings for other players will go down, because stars are measured to average statistic of all of your player. That is what Jagster meant. Not to what they achieve during matches. 

 

1 hour ago, XanderMD53 said:

Makes a lot of sense, he went on a quite frankly ridiculous goal scoring run from corners and freekicks early season, which boosted his match ratings. The goals have since dried up, understandably! Thanks - makes a lot of sense now

That is not what Jagster meant. Again, player progress is compared to rest of team. so if you buy or sell player, or add new youngster to main team, etc, will influence star rating. that mean you can see a progress on progress graph, where in fact there is no progress but rather your team as a whole got weaker. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Furmanbp