When to sell players? At which age. Also considering injury proneness and player development.

[danej]

There are several discussions about this topic out there, both here on the SI forum and elsewhere. However, I haven't come across a sufficiently in-depth discussion of high quality, input would be appreciated.

 

Here are my ideas so far:

1. No matter what, I would usually sell any outfield player at some point when he is 27-29 years old at the latest. So aged 29 at the latest. At this point their market value is probably peaking and it would usually be a bad long term decision not to cash in. No matter which club you are, this also in principle applies to PSG, Man Utd etc. Specific examples: In my current Man Utd save I think I waited too long to sell Varane (30) and Bruno Fernandes (29) respectively. I ended up getting very low fees for them.
2. Keepers can probably be kept on for a couple of years longer. I am not as certain regarding the best age to sell keepers, but my current impression is to preferable sell them aged 30-31 at the latest.
3. Sometimes perhaps wait untill the summer transfer window. I am not sure on this one, but I have seen a few people suggest it in various discussion. The argument being that clubs in general have a better transfer budget at the beginning of the summer transfer window compared to the beginning of the January transfer window. So if you struggled to obtain a reasonable bid when you try to sell someone during the January window, perhaps you should consider waiting untill the summer and try again. The Varane and Bruno Fernandes examples above also happened during the January transfer window. In hindsight I should perhaps have kept them on untill the following summer transfer window, perhaps I could then have obtained a much better fee for them. Or ideally, sold them the summer before. Even in my current save, I didn't know what I do know untill very recently. I thought it was pretty much always good to keep players around untill there were around 29-30. Now I am sceptical towards that attitude, and consensus in discussions regarding the optimal age for player sales also seem to be point more towards and age around 28-29 for outfield players.
4. In any case, the optimal age for player sales shouldn't be set in stone. It should probably to some extent be decided by an indiviual assesment, each player being different. Natural fitness could play a big part. In any case, I am leaning towards studying each player individually at the start of each transfer window. Look at "Development - Progress" in the player's menu. Look at his progress for the last 1, 6, 12 months. Seriously considering selling the player if his development has been disappointing compared to his age.
5. I have already followed point no. 4 for young players, being succesful more often than not I think. Specifically, I look at the players progress. As a rule of thumb, if the young player (aged 21-22 or younger) hasn't progressed with at least "Slight overall improvement..." in at least one of the three domains (Technical, Mental, Physical ability), I will probably try to sell the player.
6. So, I think I will implement a similar strategy for younger players. Specifically, for players aged around 23 and older, at the start of each window, I will look at their development the last 1, 6, 12 months. If for example the players has more of those slightly downwards orange arrows than slightly upwards yellow arrows, it might be time to sell. I also think that if I had used this method in my current save, I would probably have noticed the slight deterioration of the attributes of Varane and Bruno Fernandes at an earlier stage. And I might have sold them at an earlier and better time and got a much better fee for them.

In any case, input is greatly appreciated. At which age should you sell players? What can be said about this topic?

[Cloud9]

On 05/06/2023 at 02:47, danej said:

There are several discussions about this topic out there, both here on the SI forum and elsewhere. However, I haven't come across a sufficiently in-depth discussion of high quality, input would be appreciated.

 

Here are my ideas so far:

1. No matter what, I would usually sell any outfield player at some point when he is 27-29 years old at the latest. So aged 29 at the latest. At this point their market value is probably peaking and it would usually be a bad long term decision not to cash in. No matter which club you are, this also in principle applies to PSG, Man Utd etc. Specific examples: In my current Man Utd save I think I waited too long to sell Varane (30) and Bruno Fernandes (29) respectively. I ended up getting very low fees for them.
2. Keepers can probably be kept on for a couple of years longer. I am not as certain regarding the best age to sell keepers, but my current impression is to preferable sell them aged 30-31 at the latest.
3. Sometimes perhaps wait untill the summer transfer window. I am not sure on this one, but I have seen a few people suggest it in various discussion. The argument being that clubs in general have a better transfer budget at the beginning of the summer transfer window compared to the beginning of the January transfer window. So if you struggled to obtain a reasonable bid when you try to sell someone during the January window, perhaps you should consider waiting untill the summer and try again. The Varane and Bruno Fernandes examples above also happened during the January transfer window. In hindsight I should perhaps have kept them on untill the following summer transfer window, perhaps I could then have obtained a much better fee for them. Or ideally, sold them the summer before. Even in my current save, I didn't know what I do know untill very recently. I thought it was pretty much always good to keep players around untill there were around 29-30. Now I am sceptical towards that attitude, and consensus in discussions regarding the optimal age for player sales also seem to be point more towards and age around 28-29 for outfield players.
4. In any case, the optimal age for player sales shouldn't be set in stone. It should probably to some extent be decided by an indiviual assesment, each player being different. Natural fitness could play a big part. In any case, I am leaning towards studying each player individually at the start of each transfer window. Look at "Development - Progress" in the player's menu. Look at his progress for the last 1, 6, 12 months. Seriously considering selling the player if his development has been disappointing compared to his age.
5. I have already followed point no. 4 for young players, being succesful more often than not I think. Specifically, I look at the players progress. As a rule of thumb, if the young player (aged 21-22 or younger) hasn't progressed with at least "Slight overall improvement..." in at least one of the three domains (Technical, Mental, Physical ability), I will probably try to sell the player.
6. So, I think I will implement a similar strategy for younger players. Specifically, for players aged around 23 and older, at the start of each window, I will look at their development the last 1, 6, 12 months. If for example the players has more of those slightly downwards orange arrows than slightly upwards yellow arrows, it might be time to sell. I also think that if I had used this method in my current save, I would probably have noticed the slight deterioration of the attributes of Varane and Bruno Fernandes at an earlier stage. And I might have sold them at an earlier and better time and got a much better fee for them.

In any case, input is greatly appreciated. At which age should you sell players? What can be said about this topic?

How they're performing, wages, what you've won, and how many years on their contract will dictate what price you can get for a senior player. If there's a market for a player you'll get tons of cash, but age has very little to do with it unless they're really old. Selling a player when there isn't interest in him will always mean you're doing poorly in the market. You shouldn't feel pressured to sell a player when they're 28-29 unless someone comes in with a giant bid, or unless you're a club moving up the divisions. That being said, you should look to sell players in their last two years of contract who you don't want at the club longterm. You'll need to be more opportunistic than formulaic in your transfer strategy. 

I would only look at age when selling young players. It's always best to let them develop if you want maximum profit for them, selling them when they turn 23 is the sweet spot here. Before that and you'll get a reduced fee even if they're destined to be a world beater. 

And yea don't actively try to sell players in January.

My transfer policy extends do this: Can they do a job for you? If not, sell. A low CA player who can play make and break down defence can be a super squad player, he doesn't need to have green 16's in all his attributes to be worth keeping around.

• If Bruno Fernandez doesn't fit how you want to play, then selling him makes sense. If he does, selling an established leader, good personality, and key member of the squad will sabotage your season. 
• A classic mistake is to sign all potential players, but what a player can do for you right now is often times worth way more. Wonderkids are cool, but success now will do a lot more for your club. 

 

Just focus on building a successful team and you'll be able to move on any players who don't cut it for your next season. 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Cloud9

[danej]

5 hours ago, Cloud9 said:

And yea don't actively try to sell players in January.

The whole post was great, thanks for some great input.

The quoted part makes me think - as a rule of thumb, it is probably often a bad idea to actively buy players in January as well? I mean, buy players who aren't transfer listed or unhappy, buy players where the selling club have no particular wish to sell. My sparse experience suggest that you mave have to pay more for such a player in January than what you could get him for in the summer.

An example that comes to mind from the Man Utd save: In a January window, I bought Martin Terrier from Rennes. A decent player, but a paid 62m for him. I imagine that he would have cost less in a summer window. I ended up selling him a couple of years later to Real Madrid for 56m.

[Cloud9]

1 hour ago, danej said:

The whole post was great, thanks for some great input.

The quoted part makes me think - as a rule of thumb, it is probably often a bad idea to actively buy players in January as well? I mean, buy players who aren't transfer listed or unhappy, buy players where the selling club have no particular wish to sell. My sparse experience suggest that you mave have to pay more for such a player in January than what you could get him for in the summer.

An example that comes to mind from the Man Utd save: In a January window, I bought Martin Terrier from Rennes. A decent player, but a paid 62m for him. I imagine that he would have cost less in a summer window. I ended up selling him a couple of years later to Real Madrid for 56m.

Transfer fees if you buy a player will be hugely inflated in January from an opposition club. In general the January window is just for signing free transfers Dec 30th, triggering a release clause, or snapping up a transfer listed player. I only really utilize the January transfer window if the board gives me extra funds between windows or I've picked up an injury to a key player. 

This might not apply to you as Man United, but in my Sheffield save I can really only pick up high reputation players when they get transfer listed, as the wage demands are super high if they're not desperate to get out of their current situation. January tends to be the best time to look for these players, especially since they won't be attracting interest from other clubs that will drive up the wage (Which makes it difficult to poach recently relegated top tier players in the summer).

You can see the increased value reflected on what the agents quotes you, outside the window it will be x2 as much as they normally are  

Edited June 10, 2023 by Cloud9

[Draakon]

The correct answer depends on who you manage (league and reputation) and what you're trying to achieve.

My principles:

1. If a bigger and more reputable club comes in (some of European giants, for example) for a decent enough fee I let everybody go, even first team star players. The main idea is not to stand on the way of player's development and aspirations to play in a bigger club/league. Decent fee in that situation is anything around £50m or more. 

2. I lean heavily on youth development so players around 23-24 years of age have got plenty of first team football in my team and also are close to their full potential. What happens next is often tied to their personality. If it's 'balanced' or otherwise unremarkable, I allow them to leave before they get too influential in the squad. If they're determined/ambitious/driven/professional etc. I try to keep at least some around. If the player is in the club still when 27-28 years of age the interest of big clubs seems to fade away slowly and they tend to stay put until the end of their career. 

3. Contract management. Try to make the deal 18-24 months before their contract runs out or their fee is much smaller.