Odd Draws - Pure coincidence?...

[phd_angel]

Do you experience this too or not?...

I find some strange coincidences in continental and cup draws against my club that happen over and over again.

In continental draws, FM tends to pick a club of the same league I'm in. For example, in Europa 16 group, FM just drew Celta against me (Cadiz). That's 1 in 8 odds. This happens a lot.

Also strange is cup drawing - picking a club I also play against in the league in the same week! For example, Spanish Cup draws Tenerife to play against me (Cadiz) in the same week I play Tenerife in the league as well. This also happens over and over in FM editions.

While coincidences happen, this just seems to be way excessive, to the point I pre-decide to save scum the game if it draws the same same-league club I suspect it will draw... 

Edited November 20, 2023 by phd_angel

[Dagenham_Dave]

6 hours ago, phd_angel said:

Also strange is drawing for a cup match that happens in the same week of the league match against the same club

This happens in real life all the time. 

In fact, it's currently happening with the club I support right now. We played away to Cove Rangers in the league yesterday (Saturday), and we have them again at home in the Scottish Cup next weekend. 

[rusty217]

The former should be a bug. Don't think you're supposed to be able to draw teams from the same country as your self.

The latter does seem strangely common. It's weird.

[Dadecane]

19 minutes ago, rusty217 said:

The former should be a bug. Don't think you're supposed to be able to draw teams from the same country as your self.

The latter does seem strangely common. It's weird.

Rd of 16 UCL u cant draw same country, in UEL u can I believe so technically it could happen. 
 

remember the first “playoff” round of uel is 3rd place ucl teams vs 2nd place uel teams; winners than play the UEL group winners in rd of 16, and yes I think same country teams can face off. 

[wazzaflow10]

23 hours ago, phd_angel said:

Do you experience this too or not?...

I find some strange coincidences in continental and cup draws against my club that happen over and over again over the years.

In continental draws, FM tends to pick a club of the same league I'm in. For example, in Europa 16 group, FM just drew Celta against me (Cadiz). That's 1 in 8 odds.

Also strange is drawing for a cup match that happens in the same week of the league match against the same club. For example, Spanish Cup draws Tenerife against me (Cadiz) in the same week I play Tenerife in the league.

While coincidences happen, this is just way too much, to the point where I pre-decided to save scum the game if it draws the same boring club I suspect it will draw... 

They just want the journalists to have something relevant to ask you in the press conferences. How do you feel about playing the same team twice in a week???

[TheDreamWolf]

This has happened to me in every version of FM since the 90's. I always get drawn against a team I will play in the same week as the scheduled cup game. Scripting much? I once played Arsenal four times in a row - Champs league 1st leg, league, FA cup and Champs league 2nd leg. I also usually get Newcastle in the cups for some reason .

[Dagenham_Dave]

1 hour ago, TheDreamWolf said:

This has happened to me in every version of FM since the 90's. I always get drawn against a team I will play in the same week as the scheduled cup game. Scripting much? I once played Arsenal four times in a row - Champs league 1st leg, league, FA cup and Champs league 2nd leg. I also usually get Newcastle in the cups for some reason .

Why would they script it in that way? What possible benefit is there in them spending time to script a part of the code just to make you play the same opponents you've just played in the cup the week before. Spoiler alert - None. 

It's perception bias, nothing else. You don't 'always' get these draws, but you notice it when you do. 

[Mst82]

9 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

Why would they script it in that way? What possible benefit is there in them spending time to script a part of the code just to make you play the same opponents you've just played in the cup the week before. Spoiler alert - None. 

It's perception bias, nothing else. You don't 'always' get these draws, but you notice it when you do. 

I personally think it’s unbalanced - I noticed with a recent FM (FM 22 or 23 maybe) that new questions/ answers had sneaked into press conferences around playing the same teams in a short period of time. So that is why it’s “scripted”, so that you can use their new responses.

It happens far too frequently to be “luck of the draw”. 

[Dadecane]

3 hours ago, Mst82 said:

I personally think it’s unbalanced - I noticed with a recent FM (FM 22 or 23 maybe) that new questions/ answers had sneaked into press conferences around playing the same teams in a short period of time. So that is why it’s “scripted”, so that you can use their new responses.

It happens far too frequently to be “luck of the draw”. 

4 seasons into fm24 its yet to happen to me once. In fm 22 I remember it happening a few times, out of 900+ hours played. In fm23, I barely played that one so I dont remember it ever happening. I wouldnt say it happens too frequently at all. 
 

also not enough is being stressed on the fact this happens strangely often in real life too. Idk why but it does. Perhaps its the actual drawings IRL that are scripted and fm is doing a good job? 😉 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dadecane

[Dagenham_Dave]

4 hours ago, Mst82 said:

I personally think it’s unbalanced - I noticed with a recent FM (FM 22 or 23 maybe) that new questions/ answers had sneaked into press conferences around playing the same teams in a short period of time. So that is why it’s “scripted”, so that you can use their new responses.

It happens far too frequently to be “luck of the draw”. 

How frequently has it happened in your save? Be very specific. 

[Dagenham_Dave]

1 hour ago, Dadecane said:

Also not enough is being stressed on the fact this happens strangely often in real life too.

It does. But again, there's probably perception bias there too, as it's something you only pay attention to when it actually happens. 

[Mst82]

35 minutes ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

How frequently has it happened in your save? Be very specific. 

It hasn’t yet as I’ve only had one cup draw in my main save. Weirdly, it is dependent upon being in the cups.

Although I did get Chelsea in the cup 2 games after I played them in the league.

I’ll keep an eye out for you Dave, and report back my findings 🫡

[Dadecane]

48 minutes ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

It does. But again, there's probably perception bias there too, as it's something you only pay attention to when it actually happens. 

Yeah u right, just to think of a big matchup like say el clasico, in 2011 there were 4 in 17 days, league, cup and ucl semis 2 legs, last yr there were about 4 in a month, supercup semis, league and cup. And none were finals either which u would think is normal between fcb and RM, they were drawings. I think last yr FCB also played a smaller club in league and cup same week, cant remember, anyway it doesnt happen often but it does stick out youre right. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dadecane

[Dagenham_Dave]

44 minutes ago, Mst82 said:

It hasn’t yet as I’ve only had one cup draw in my main save. Weirdly, it is dependent upon being in the cups.

Although I did get Chelsea in the cup 2 games after I played them in the league.

I’ll keep an eye out for you Dave, and report back my findings 🫡

Yes because remember it happens 'far too frequently'

Or in the case of your own save, 'never'. 

[tropicsafc]

Agree with Dave. It just stands out when it happens. I can remember it happening a hell of a lot whenever I've played FM. But that's also hundreds, maybe thousands, of simulated seasons. I've seen it happen in real life many, many times with Arsenal and I've seen 30 ish seasons of football. 
 

Funnily enough I had an ultra version of this in my current save. Playing as Arsenal and had that weird scheduling quirk where you sometimes play away to a team in December and home in January. Or vice versa. Got City in the league cup semi's and the FA Cup 4th round. 5 games in about 6 weeks. Throw in the Community Shield the previous August. And the next years. And a Champions League semi-final. 9 games in a year.

[Mst82]

2 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

Yes because remember it happens 'far too frequently'

Or in the case of your own save, 'never'. 

I tell you what Dave, just for you, I’ll go back to FM23 and do you some screenshots of how many times it happened in my long term saves.

Did you choose to ignore how I’ve only had 1 cup draw on my current FM24 save?

[phd_angel]

21 hours ago, TheDreamWolf said:

This has happened to me in every version of FM since the 90's. I always get drawn against a team I will play in the same week as the scheduled cup game. Scripting much? I once played Arsenal four times in a row - Champs league 1st leg, league, FA cup and Champs league 2nd leg. I also usually get Newcastle in the cups for some reason .

Yes. Same experience here. It get's boring...

I wouldn't say it's scripted (and I don't think it's mere "subjective bias" as some claim...), but maybe some unintended coding effect.

[Dagenham_Dave]

5 hours ago, Mst82 said:

I tell you what Dave, just for you, I’ll go back to FM23 and do you some screenshots of how many times it happened in my long term saves.

 

One of two things will happen here. You'll do that, go to all that effort, and then realise it didn't really happen all that often after all, and therefore we won't hear another peep from you. 

Or, and as I suspect may be more likely, you'll embarrass yourself further by posting screenshots that prove absolutely nothing. Because, for proof of this to be happening, and I quote, 'far too frequently', (and remember, you also need to quantify what frequency you consider to be 'normal'), well, that's going to be a helluva lot of screenshots. 

But by all means fill your boots. A couple of hours of your life you won't get back, but whatever makes you happy, I guess. 

[Mst82]

12 minutes ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

One of two things will happen here. You'll do that, go to all that effort, and then realise it didn't really happen all that often after all, and therefore we won't hear another peep from you. 

Or, and as I suspect may be more likely, you'll embarrass yourself further by posting screenshots that prove absolutely nothing. Because, for proof of this to be happening, and I quote, 'far too frequently', (and remember, you also need to quantify what frequency you consider to be 'normal'), well, that's going to be a helluva lot of screenshots. 

But by all means fill your boots. A couple of hours of your life you won't get back, but whatever makes you happy, I guess. 

Cheers Dave. I’ll get back to you soon. 

[Dagenham_Dave]

So close, and yet, so far...

[forameuss]

19 hours ago, Mst82 said:

I tell you what Dave, just for you, I’ll go back to FM23 and do you some screenshots of how many times it happened in my long term saves.

Did you choose to ignore how I’ve only had 1 cup draw on my current FM24 save?

Are you going to provide screenshots of all the times it didn't happen too?  

And that's not some snide gotcha or anything, if you're trying to prove something, you'd really need to provide a rundown of all your draws and show that an abnormally high percentage of them were doing that.  You could show 20 times it happened, but that's a lot more notable if it's 20/20 than if it's 20/100.

Edited November 24, 2023 by forameuss

[CLS]

10 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

So close, and yet, so far...

It's not even that unlikely though in Scotland where you've only got 11 other teams in your league

[Dagenham_Dave]

22 minutes ago, CLS said:

It's not even that unlikely though in Scotland where you've only got 11 other teams in your league

You've not really thought that one through, have you? 

[wazzaflow10]

I guess you gotta play someone eventually but this is one hell of a coincidence. I can only guess that if Liverpool would have been in the R16 I'd have had the pleasure of playing them 4 times in 4 weeks.

 

[Dagenham_Dave]

1 hour ago, wazzaflow10 said:

but this is one hell of a coincidence.

Bingo!

[nms1987]

On 20/11/2023 at 00:46, Dagenham_Dave said:

This happens in real life all the time. 

In fact, it's currently happening with the club I support right now. We played away to Cove Rangers in the league yesterday (Saturday), and we have them again at home in the Scottish Cup next weekend. 

Estoril drew Porto in BOTH Portuguese Cups.  So, adding on 2 league games, they'll play 'em 4 times this year (already beat 'em twice tho, haha!) 

It happens.

[wazzaflow10]

11 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

Bingo!

While the gods might have cursed me for the FA cup they certainly smiled at me for the CL quarter final draw.

Sometimes when the game follows the script it can work out in your favor! /s

[phd_angel]

On 13/12/2023 at 20:15, wazzaflow10 said:

I guess you gotta play someone eventually but this is one hell of a coincidence. I can only guess that if Liverpool would have been in the R16 I'd have had the pleasure of playing them 4 times in 4 weeks.

 

Wow! This is what I'm talking about. Beautiful trios of matches... Something fishy about the coding for these draws... Thanks for sharing. 

[Kickballz]

Apophenia and conformation bias.

 

[forameuss]

And yet, despite all these allusions to it being "fishy", we've yet to have one actual well-thought-out bit of proof around it.  If you believe there's something wrong with it, map out every cup draw you have over a long period and see how many of these draws you get.  If it's an abnormal number, that's probably something SI would really, really like to have a look at.  I won't hold my breath.

[Wavelberry]

SI know it's in the code for the game. That's why there's a press conference question about it!

[Dagenham_Dave]

On 16/12/2023 at 12:25, Wavelberry said:

SI know it's in the code for the game. That's why there's a press conference question about it!

Or more accurately, there are press conference questions about it because it's something that can happen organically in game. 

[Wavelberry]

18 hours ago, Dagenham_Dave said:

Or more accurately, there are press conference questions about it because it's something that can happen organically in game. 

Hey, you didn't use the meme.