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Southgate: Episode IV - A New Hope


Rob1981
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43 minutes ago, EnterUsernameHere said:

What has he achieved, exactly? 

Our first European final ever (and first final for over 50 years) and two tournament semi finals after 20+ years without one. Plus consistently easy, comfortable qualifying - not something we've always done - and actually making the team likeable for the first time in  however long.

We have no god-given right to win tournaments (even with the quality of players - look at France, Portugal, Belgium etc who've had equally strong groups).

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8 minutes ago, eenie said:

So who comes in for the rest of the tournament? If whoever it is is going to change the style of play, formation or personnel, how long exactly do they have to bed those changes in and exactly how successful do you think that's going to be?

If your answer is "well it might be better than keeping him" then that's hardly compelling.

The style of play will still be better than our current 'style'.

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6 minutes ago, titchuk said:

Our first European final ever (and first final for over 50 years) and two tournament semi finals after 20+ years without one. Plus consistently easy, comfortable qualifying - not something we've always done - and actually making the team likeable for the first time in  however long.

We have no god-given right to win tournaments (even with the quality of players - look at France, Portugal, Belgium etc who've had equally strong groups).

No, we don't have any God given right, but Southgate's 'achievements' are way overblown. Every time we come up against a 'top' side - we buckle.

We beat Germany, fair play, we had home advantage for that tournament and the final was there for the taking. That was also a poor Germany side we beat (went out in the group stages the World Cup before and after that tourney IIRC?) and they missed a sitter in that game.

You can say he's got to finals and semis, but what's the point? He's not courageous enough to win us anything and never will be.

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11 minutes ago, titchuk said:

Our first European final ever (and first final for over 50 years) and two tournament semi finals after 20+ years without one. Plus consistently easy, comfortable qualifying - not something we've always done - and actually making the team likeable for the first time in  however long.

We have no god-given right to win tournaments (even with the quality of players - look at France, Portugal, Belgium etc who've had equally strong groups).

This. Intl tournaments are very hard to win and Southgate done better and achieved more than any other England manager other than Sir Alf and his golden generation. Every previous 'golden gen' besides that including the desperately disappointing 00s side hasn't even got close.

The end is nigh for Southgate and he shouldn't continue past this tournament no matter what (and I think he knows that) but the fact is the NT was on its knees after Sven left for over a decade, Southgate renewed some hope and gave us some great days we will never forget.

Edited by Haguey
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Not sure using France and Portugal, who have both won tournaments in the last few years, is a great defence tbh. I'll give you Belgium. They also have had a manager who failed to deliver in the big moments.

We don't have to accept mediocrity because it's been a while since we won anything. "But we've had shitter managers!" is such a low bar to exceed.

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14 minutes ago, eenie said:

So who comes in for the rest of the tournament? If whoever it is is going to change the style of play, formation or personnel, how long exactly do they have to bed those changes in and exactly how successful do you think that's going to be?

If your answer is "well it might be better than keeping him" then that's hardly compelling.

Look at the inverse, the change is you won't have Gareth's influence.

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22 minutes ago, metal_guitarist said:

What's the betting his hamstring has gone again for the 3rd time and he'll miss pre-season for us? Should have been pulled from the squad to recover properly.

I was actually thinking yesterday that I hope him on England duty doesn't cause him another injury setback and affect us. 

He shouldn't be in the squad for his own good first of all. He's not going to play any part in the group stage and hasn't played since iirc, January. 

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4 minutes ago, Baptista_8 said:

He's not courageous enough to win us anything and never will be.

I dunno if that's fair, the subs for the pens at the last Euros was certainly ballsy and the squad selection for this tournament was well received as being bold with certain omissions. That shows courage to me. 

But I think if he insists on a Foden or Bellingham at 10 then he has to play one and put the other on the bench. As for the wide spots there are options there. Same as midfield really we've all said there's alternatives there ready to be used. Nothing wrong with elite options off the bench to put on second half.

Could even go with a back three given the issues at LB. I don't think any of the issues are insurmountable but it goes back to bringing in players late into the squad and then experimenting during the tournament. Which is a bit mad.

Our squad is pretty much always going to be good enough to qualify so I don't get why we don't experiment along the way.

I don't think it's a lack of courage, more a lack of ideas and managing the squad. Guess we'll see at the third game who gets game time and whether we approach the game different. We can afford not to play Kane even from the start IMO. Just need to get the system right for the 11 on the pitch, not shoehorning players that don't fit.

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Posted (edited)

“What has he achieved?” :D

Other than completely changing the culture around the national side, reaching consecutive semi finals, then reaching a first final in 55 years, then coming within a hair‘s breath of beating France and going into the World Cup SF as tournament favourites.

Recognising that international tournaments are bloody hard to win is not “accepting mediocrity” ffs. Every tournament there are 8-10 teams that have a realistic shot and all but one of them go home disappointed.

The likes of Trapattoni, Hitzfeld, Capello, Eriksson, Rijkaard, Maldini, Hiddink, Venables, Advocaat, van Gaal, Sacchi etc. have all taken top international sides to tournaments and not won them.

I’m not putting Southgate in the same bracket as those guys btw :D  But people are talking as if he is some disastrous failure. As if some other manager would be able to take this crop of England players and swagger to the trophy without getting out of first gear. It’s insane.

Edited by Rob1981
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5 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

“What has he achieved?” :D

Other than completely changing the culture around the national side, reaching a first final in 55 years, then reaching consecutive semi finals, then coming within a hair‘s breath of beating France and going into the World Cup SF as tournament favourites.

Recognising that international tournaments are bloody hard to win is not “accepting mediocrity” ffs. Every tournament there are 8-10 teams that have a realistic shot and all but one of them go hope disappointed.

The likes of Trapattoni, Hitzfeld, Capello, Eriksson, Rijkaard, Maldini, Hiddink, Venables, Advocaat, van Gaal, Sacchi etc. have all taken top international sides to tournaments and not won them.

I’m not putting Southgate in the same bracket as those guys btw :D  But people are talking as if he is some disastrous failure. As if some other manager would be able to take this crop of England players and swagger to the trophy without getting out of first gear. It’s insane.

The only successful club manager I can think of who has taken a distinct style to the national team and made it work AND win tournaments is Vicente del Bosque. Even he was following on the work of Aragones and the distinct Pep/Spanish style of football at the time, and was also bless with arguably the greatest group of players we have ever seen. Every other side wins tournaments by crafting and grafting their way throughout the seven matches. I can't think of a distinct 'style' of play any other WC/Euros winning team has had besides that (Portugal apart but that wasn't style it was absolute pragmatism and defensive solidarity first and foremost).

Edited by Haguey
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Shaw still not training at this point, you’ve got to assume medical team are not confident on him. Doesn’t feature against Slovenia, not sure how you can play him in the tournament without throwing him in at deep end, where the chances of a rusty performance / injury increases loads. 

Still waiting for Walker to break down soon. Played his most minutes in a season for some time, and now needed for every minute going in Euros.

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Getting proper Euro 2016 vibes from this squad. Shaw is the Jack wilshere of this team and will no doubt come in at some point and look completely unfit. No width and no energy and similarly with Hodgson, Southgate appears to have no idea how best to ustilise the players in any proper system. I remember a quote after the Iceland loss that the players in that team didn’t seem to know their role or what they were doing, where they’re playing etc and it seems the same now. And I’m sick to death watching, when we’re defending, hoof balls away into space no one is occupying non-league style. What the hell is going on there? 

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As the England players met their families in Frankfurt after a dismal draw with Denmark, there was a “tension”, and it wasn’t all to do with the result. Some relatives of squad members feel that Gareth Southgate has made “commitments” to certain players, but is not picking those who deserve it or are in form. It started to seep in afterwards. A concern is growing that Southgate is too wedded to certain senior players. There have been acerbic comments about not wanting to “upset” them.

It should be acknowledged that that perception goes against the huge decisions he made in selecting this squad, where he left many big names out. Some of this is also the natural irritation that comes when a player is left out, and when results are poor. Everything feels different after an encouraging performance. It’s also a risk of letting families in after games in the way England have maturely tried to do.

 

 

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Also this I think should be a wake up call for the next manager plus especially also the fans. Seems like for decades we’ve been calling for the Manager to drop underperforming big players at big clubs for other in form, but with little international experience players and it’s happened. From watching though, I’d say we’ve been desperate for a Sterling, Rashford or Grealish to come on and just scare the opposition players a bit and provide a bit of a presence on the pitch, something that, as good as they are, the likes of Eze, Bowen and Watkins just won’t do. 

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12 minutes ago, Darren Moores Mum said:

Sterling was in form but for some reason Gareth didn't want to bring him back into the fold.

He was also so bad he got cheered off one game, he wasn't good all season long.

I don't think Southgate is too wedded to players, it's his caution within games I find frustrating.

The BBC had a graphic where four of the 10 games with fewest shots (or very similar numbers) featured Southgate's England, it's how he always approaches tournaments. I don't think he considers it overly defensive.

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13 hours ago, av3ry said:

He'd never last in club management managing like this. Argyle hired a former England youth manager who played a very similar way and my god it was terrible.

I'd try something like...

Pickford

Walker--Stones--Guehi--Gomez

Mainoo--Rice--Bellingham

Saka--Kane/Watkins/Foden--Palmer

Walker overlaps, Gomez Tucks in. Try to attack in a 2-3-5 like...

Stones--Guehi

Mainoo--Rice--Gomez

Walker--Saka--Striker--Bellingham--Palmer

We've got the best set of attacking players in the tournament, who can out-score anyone else. Unleash them.

 

Using Football Manager to help me explain this a bit better. I was thinking this...

tactic.png.f0a8eebba886c58e72ccf4543f1b5

Only two questions are who will be our Casaman? And this is not really viable without Luke Shaw, unless Joe Gomez has a decent left-foot?
Declan Rice will at least be off the centre-backs toes. It was like he was playing Half-Back or something yesterday.
Southgate and the bosses of the FA will not like it though, it was quite direct when I used it in game. Scored from quite a few crosses.
 

Edited by av3ry
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6 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Why am I right back? :( 

Brought in as centre-back, had the physicals and crossing ability to play right back and turned out to be by far my best right-back option. Brazilian Ben White basically. :brock:

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Last night broke me, that was so **** I can't even talk about :(

Quite possibly the worst thing I've ever seen, and I've seen Rebel Moon ffs. 

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6 minutes ago, Bliss Seeker said:

Last night broke me, that was so **** I can't even talk about :(

Quite possibly the worst thing I've ever seen, and I've seen Rebel Moon ffs. 

If it helps, you can only improve from that performance. 

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1 hour ago, Bootador said:

ADAM WHARTON

 

It took a very long time for my phone to load that there was a tweet here, so I thought you'd just wandered in and yelled ADAM WHARTON and gone again.

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1 hour ago, Bootador said:

ADAM WHARTON

 

Have all ready replied to this in the match thread so will just copy that.

I really don't get the point of the video, 95% of it is him keeping possession like he does for Arsenal and I couldn't see one occasion where a forward pass was going to cause Denmark any problems (maybe I would if i watched again) and some of the clips a forward pass wasn't even on ffs :D

Granted the other 5% was quite clearly terrible to watch but if fans are expecting Declan Rice to be some kind of Pirloesque deep lying playmaker they've definitely paid no attention to any of his career up until this point! He needs the playmaker next to him, someone that can split lines by moving the ball forward quickly which has never been Rice's game and never will be.

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10 minutes ago, kopsy101 said:

I think I counted 9 out of 21 clips there where he had an obvious pass forward or he messed up. 5% is extremely generous.

Well done to you for taking the time to actually count but as I said the 5% terrible which would have been him messing up (nothing to do with forward passes) so probably about right? Though admittedly it was just a rough guess as didn't know I needed to be so exact with my percentages.

Now I would fully understand if these so important forward passes were for Kane (for example) who would have been clean through on goal but not one single clip is anything like that, none would have been further than 10 yards and the majority the only player who could have received the ball would have probably had to pass backwards himself due to being tightly marked. Maybe a couple where the receiver could have turned on the ball but no more than that. 

Seeing as you've completely ignored the rest of my post I can only presume you're one of those that have never really watched Rice play a game of football other than in an England shirt so have a very different opinion of what type of player he is.

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Just now, VP. said:

Well done to you for taking the time to actually count but as I said the 5% terrible which would have been him messing up (nothing to do with forward passes) so probably about right? Though admittedly it was just a rough guess as didn't know I needed to be so exact with my percentages.

Now I would fully understand if these so important forward passes were for Kane (for example) who would have been clean through on goal but not one single clip is anything like that, none would have been further than 10 yards and the majority the only player who could have received the ball would have probably had to pass backwards himself due to being tightly marked. Maybe a couple where the receiver could have turned on the ball but no more than that. 

Seeing as you've completely ignored the rest of my post I can only presume you're one of those that have never really watched Rice play a game of football other than in an England shirt so have a very different opinion of what type of player he is.

I wasn't suggesting that the forward pass is the optimal play, but there's certainly more chance of scoring a goal if the ball gets forward! More chance of an overturn also, but that's where there could mindset/confidence issues with the team come into it and how they're playing. 

No I was just stressing that the number you gave seemed awfully low as he gave it away 3/4 times and could have passed it forward a few more times too. 

I did read the rest, and it did surprise me to hear that he's not one for progressing the ball quickly via passes, which is by far the most effective way. Seems like a chink in his armour, but he's got more than enough talent for it to become a strength. 

I will say though that it wasn't Phillips game either, despite his strengths. Stats show that TAA broke lines via passes more than anybody yesterday, but England still struggled - This shows that this isn't the issue either way. Long winded way of saying that Rice passing it back isn't really a huge problem. 

It's just another micro detail that's gonna get attention. 

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Rice is getting a lot of heat for this but he's not the only one who couldn't pass or keep hold of the ball.

Not going to do a thorough analysis of this but just by watching the game it seems like the players are either too far apart or not moving into areas to support the one on the ball. 

I mean rice was never the best progressive passer at Arsenal but he was never this totally inept at passing; there are some fundamental problems with the way we are set up/coached.

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I would be tempted to swap Foden for Mainoo and bring Mainoo into central midfield for a 4321 formation. That way Mainoo can support the guys left and right of him when needed, (and it looks like they do need support), but can also drive forward without leaving 1 guy in the lurch like a 4231 formation would. Doubt Southgate will do it though.

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38 minutes ago, Redshift said:

I would be tempted to swap Foden for Mainoo and bring Mainoo into central midfield for a 4321 formation. That way Mainoo can support the guys left and right of him when needed, (and it looks like they do need support), but can also drive forward without leaving 1 guy in the lurch like a 4231 formation would. Doubt Southgate will do it though.

You'd need a left back who can attack even more than we do now with that formation though. You'd just get the same problem like against Denmark where they don't even need to bother defending their right hand side so can bring extra players over to counter any threat we have. 

It's not the formation that's an issue, it's the balance of it with too many players in the same condensed area of the pitch with absolutely sod all threat down our left hand side. 

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1 hour ago, Pukey said:

You'd need a left back who can attack even more than we do now with that formation though. You'd just get the same problem like against Denmark where they don't even need to bother defending their right hand side so can bring extra players over to counter any threat we have. 

It's not the formation that's an issue, it's the balance of it with too many players in the same condensed area of the pitch with absolutely sod all threat down our left hand side. 

If Mainoo moves forward then Bellingham will have to move left. Might be enough to cause the opposition problems. 

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Posted (edited)

Here's a sneak preview on the permutations stuff I've done for each group:

image.png.aa8a93c63053da2fbc14c902ec9626c0.png

Nine possible combinations of results across the two MD3 games.  Nine possible tables. 

So:

  • BEAT SLOVENIA - We are group winners, regardless of the result in the other game.
  • DRAW WITH SLOVENIA - We are still group winners unless Denmark beat Serbia; if England draw and Denmark win then we may be pushed down to the runners-up spot on goal difference or goals scored, or even on the disciplinary points rule.
  • LOSE TO SLOVENIA - We may still be group runners-up, but we would fall to third place if we lose to Slovenia and then Denmark also beat Serbia.  And although third place with four points means a 99%+ chance of qualifying, it's not mathematically certain until we definitely know that some of the other third place teams have only finished on three points.

That is all unless someone tells me I've made a mistake somewhere :D

Edited by Rob1981
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Realistically, those scenarios in the "England beat Slovenia" column should have the third place team in red as well.  Because you aren't going to get through as a best third place team with only two points.  But as it stands, it's still mathematically possible... at least until we know today's final few MD2 scores.

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