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Games 33 & 34: Ukraine vs Belgium live from the Stuttgart Arena BBC1 5pm AND Slovakia vs Romania live from the Frankfurt Arena BBC2 5pm

Coulthard's Jaw
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What will be the result?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What will be the result

  2. 2. What will be the result

    • Slovakia win
      0
    • Draw
      13
    • Romania win
      2

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  • Poll closed on 26/06/24 at 15:59

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Coulthard's Jaw

Coulthard's Jaw

Posted
Posted (edited)

md3_ukrbel.jpeg?imwidth=2048

Possible line-ups

Ukraine: Trubin; Tymchyk, Zabarnyi, Svatok, Matviyenko, Mykolenko; Yarmolenko, Shaparenko, Brazhko, Mudryk; Yaremchuk
Misses next match if booked: Konoplia, Yaremchuk

Belgium: Casteels; Castagne, Faes, Vertonghen, Theate; Tielemans, Onana, De Bruyne; Doku, Lukaku, Bakayoko
Suspended: Lukébakio
Misses next match if booked: Mangala, Tielemans

Belgium are backed by the Opta supercomputer to triumph in this decisive Group E meeting, winning 54.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations. Ukraine secure a shock victory in just 22.2% of sims, while the draw – which could still send both sides through – was forecast more often in 23.4% of data-led sims.

Commentary by Steve Wilson and Martin Keown.

md3_svkrou.jpeg?imwidth=2048

Possible line-ups

Slovakia: Dúbravka; Pekarík, Vavro, Škriniar, Hancko; Kucka, Lobotka, Duda; Schranz, Boženík, Haraslín
Misses next match if booked: Schranz

Romania: Niță; Rațiu, Burcă, Drăgușin, Bancu; R Marin, M Marin, Stanciu; Man, Draguş, Coman
Misses next match if booked: Bancu, R Marin, M Marin

The Opta supercomputer thinks Romania will emerge with the win in this game, modelling victory for them in 42.2% of pre-match predictions. Slovakia win the tie in 31.9% of sims, while the draw comes in at a 25.9% chance.

image.png.f8482883e6c9ce93ab100963a0c16fc8.png

What. A. Group. The permutations here are mind blowing :D Enjoy, savour it.

Edited by Coulthard's Jaw
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Rob1981

Rob1981

Posted
Posted (edited)

The permutations :D  Oh my.  It feels like my whole life has been building up to this moment.

I think this is right:

image.png.918c6a4aab0cca9b92ab8866fe19474a.png

It looks horrendous, because all four teams can still finish in all four positions.

But I think it's:

  • Any team can qualify with a win
  • Any team can qualify with a draw, AS LONG AS there is an outright winner in the other game.
  • If BOTH games are draws, then everyone is on four points.  So Ukraine finish bottom on goal difference and everyone else qualifies.
  • A loser here COULD still qualify from 3rd place if NEITHER game is drawn.  But in a scenario where they lose, in order to stay 3rd and not drop to 4th then each team would need a specific winner in the other game.  This is because they could each end up tied on three points with one of two teams, and they would have a better h2h record against one but a worse h2h record against the other.
    • If Slovakia lose, they would need Ukraine to win the other game to stay 3rd
    • If Romania lose, they would need Belgium to win the other game to stay 3rd
    • If Belgium lose, they would need Slovakia to win the other game to stay 3rd
    • If Ukraine lose, they would need Romania to win the other game to stay 3rd

But remember... anybody losing and finishing 3rd on three points also needs to survive the head-to-head comparison with other third place teams.  Unless one of tonight's games is an absolute bloodbath, then teams can probably equal Hungary's GD of -3 and stay ahead of them in the rankings because Hungary picked up nine yellow cards.  But if someone ends on -4 GD or worse, then they would rank below Hungary; therefore COULD still be eliminated if either Georgia or Czech Republic win later tonight.  So Ukraine can only afford to lose by one goal.  Slovenia could lose by three goals.  Romania or Begium could lose by four goals.  But of course, that's assuming they still get the specific result they need from the list of bullet points above.  Otherwise they can't afford to lose at all.

See?  It couldn't be simpler :D

Edited by Rob1981
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Rob1981

Rob1981

Posted
Posted (edited)

I would definitely watch Belgium v Ukraine. 

The other two can play out a 0-0 draw and both qualify, so Ukraine are the only team that may need to try to win.  By virtue of having the worst GD at the start of play.

Edited by Rob1981
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TM

TM

Posted
Posted

probably 16 Lukaku offside goals in the Belgium/Ukraine game :thup:

this is a group where I can see me switching the TV channels a few times which is what you want to see in MD3

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CFuller

CFuller

Posted
Posted

My prediction... Belgium will be going home, and Lukaku will break the record for most offside goals at a major tournament.

Ukraine 2-1 Belgium, Slovakia 1-1 Romania.

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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

Posted
Posted
Just now, Haguey said:

So many selfish useless long rangers this tournament, its like they've seen a few fly in now everyone is at it

Can't score if you don't shoot.

Throwback to good times with everyone taking long shots.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

Posted
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2 minutes ago, CFuller said:

So, as things stand, Slovakia could face Slovenia?

Yeah, that would be the matchup if Hungary get through at the expense of the Group F third place team.  And England play Netherlands.

But if these two games stay like this AND Czechs/Georgia win tonight, then F3 goes through instead of A3.  In which case, Slovakia would play Netherlands, and England would play Ukraine.

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GunmaN1905

GunmaN1905

Posted
Posted
Just now, Freakiie said:

Yeah, no clue what the VAR was thinking there, the main contact was clearly outside the box.

Siebert at the whistle, was to be expected.

Bad call and then even worse from VAR room not to overturn it.

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Freakiie

Freakiie

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Siebert at the whistle, was to be expected.

Bad call and then even worse from VAR room not to overturn it.

But the VAR did overturn it. Ref initially gave a freekick.

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CFuller

CFuller

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

image.png.ea08331271e638cf90abb02f202a92cc.png

 

4 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

And also produced the Drawing Of Lots to decide 2nd and 3rd :thup:

I was too young for USA '94. Would've loved to have seen this unfold. :(

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EdBed

EdBed

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TalkSport said:

Bottom half of the draw for KOs shaping up to be jokes.

Imagine a run to the final of Slovakia, Switzerland and Austria :D 

And then losing to the first "good" team we come up against.

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