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[FM24] Return of The Dons | AFC Wimbledon


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  • SteinkelssonFM changed the title to [FM24] Return of The Dons | AFC Wimbledon

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@Lestri I am not going to lie, I did the usual search through the forum and read over the historic saves with AFC Wimbledon as part of my vetting process before clicking the start save button. Hopefully I can take the club a little further, given we should have around five months to play with. 

@Michaelinho appreciate you taking the time to stop by and drop a comment.

I will try to keep this 'first impression' post as lean as possible. We all know by now that when starting any FM save it can take quite some time to press the 'continue' button, this save is no different.

I needed to run a fine tooth comb across the playing staff, as whilst I have quite an extensive knowledge of football in England and the continent, I lack an understanding of lower league football. In fact the closest I have come to a lower league save of this sort has to have been my time with A.D. Sanjoanense back in FM22, who played in the third tier of Portuguese pyramid (which quite possibly lasted 18-months).

After reviewing the players at my disposal (21 in the first-team, 17 owned by the club) I found myself pleasantly surprised, the majority of players were flagging as being consistent players, and enjoyed playing in big matches. Two under the hood traits which often are a requirement of mine when recruiting/squad building. 

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We were off to a good start. The squad itself has two goalkeepers, seven defenders, seven midfielders, and five attackers, which initially sounds about right for the selected 4-4-2 formation. However, as previously stated 17 are signed on with 'The Dons', and two of those Ryan Johnson, and club captain Jake Reeves droped a bombshell within my first week in charge that they are keen to explore their options at the end of this current season.

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Pre-seaosn consisted of five games, we closed this block with three wins, a draw, and a loss, scoring 12 goals and conceding four. If we can continue this form into the early months of the season, we should be well within touching distance of the objective of finishing in the play-offs. Three of our early season opponents were from the league above (League One), we managed to win one (Lincoln, predicted to finish 13th), draw against Burton (predicted to finish 22nd), and suffered defeat to Wycombe (predicted to finish in 6th place). 

Again, there is hope as we managed to create a decent xG in all three games, I guess the beauty of lower league football is that these usual high xG chances which would normally be dispatched in the top tier, are less likely to be converted. Some of the goalkeeping handling errors within the match engine, with them spilling crosses, really made me chuckle. 

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After seeing my squad in action, I have cherry picked the above four players as individuals which I feel are essential to AFC Wimbledon, especially using this game model. It is a shame that Reeves has already expressed his desire to explore pastures new, I could really do with him leading my midfield.

Jake Reeves: 31 years of age, the aggressive ball winning midfielder that screams 'The Crazy Gang'. James has a great work rate and has exceptional stamina for this level. He is a leading EFL League Two player enjoying his third spell at the club.

Riley Harbottle:  Riley is only 23 so has the potential to play at the club for the next few years, he is already a 'Good EFL League Two player' with the potential to be a good Championship player. He has a great physical profile, and should have strong aerial duel outputs with a good aerial ability. The key to ensuring our low block is effective at dealing with opposition crosses.

Alistair Smith: the 25 year-old is on loan from Lincoln and is in my opinion perfect to play in the role of the segundo volante. He is 6'4 and has the trait, arrives late in opponents area, and shoots from distance. He is athletic, and also good in the air, making him a key player in both attacking , and defensive transitions. Given he is yet to make an appearance for Lincoln, I am hopeful I will have the opportunity to tie him down to the club.

 Morgan Williams: the 19-year-old is the best talent currently at the club, whilst he still is with the U21 squad, Morgan is a player which I will look to integrate into our midfield as time progresses to get the ball rolling on our talent development programme.

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I have four strikers at my disposal, two of which are a natural fit for the Target Forward role (Bugiel, and Pigott). Both of these players are above 6'0 and have a decent physical profile. Bugiel is my preference of the two with the ability to play with his back to the goal, and has aggression (16), bravery (16), teamwork (17), and strength (15). 

Whilst Stevens, and Kelly are likely to go hammer and tong for the Advanced forward role. Kelly is the pacier of the two with better technical attributes, whilst Stevens is a workhorse with 18 work rate, and 14 for off the ball.

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The next block of games see our opponents in the league gradually increase in difficulty levels, a nice way to slowly introduce me to competitive football, whilst we face Sky Bet League One side Crawley in the first round of the EFL Cup. 

I hope you've enjoyed this little update, looking forward to getting back in the groove of checking out the forum for comments, and of course engaging in all your saves. 

Edited by SteinkelssonFM
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Nice club to start your 1st lower league journey with. :thup:

I keep forgetting we're not playing FM25 though because I was about to ask where Matty Stevens is in your save. (He joined the club this season so obviously isn't at the club, but maybe he's someone you will look at because I think he's out of contract at FGR, who have just been relegated and might be of interest to you). :cool:

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@Jimbokav1971 you will be pleased to know that I uploaded the Sortitoutsi data update for this save and Matty is already with us at the club, his image is in the post above and resembles someone from T.O.W.I.E. I already checked and found that he was born in Guildford, he is quite the journeyman having played for the likes of Barnet, Peterborough, Cambridge City, Kettering, Slough, Forest Green, Stevenage. and Walsall. None of which appear to be for more than a season in duration.

@_RocknRolla_ they are so good you just had to write it twice :brock: appreciate you joining for the journey.

 

BLOCK ONE

Picking up from where we left off, you should remember that I stated that our fixtures should increase in difficulty across this first block, if the in-game media predictions had anything to go by. I guess looking at our results below we can say that is the case, given the fact that we only scored a single goal against Bradford City, compared to four in each game in the first three League Two results.

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The truth is that these results have come from opponents which at present find themselves no higher than 9th place in the league, a position held by Salford. Grimsby are 12th, with Bromley in 18th, and Bradford City in 19th position, without a league win.

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The tactic is currently working, no surprise there given I have opted to play a fluid system which I know from previous saves makes you hard to break down, this is reflected in the above visual which praises our ability to limit opponents touches inside our box, all of this being done with 44% possession, seeing us ranked 21st in the league. We also have only conceded 34 shots, this sees us ranked in fifth place, again I have included this to add substance to my claim.

All in all I am very impressed with the way in which the system is playing out, Joe Pigott is leading the goal contributions chart with seven (five goals, two assists). Followed by my player of the first block Josh Neufville who has three goals and two asissts from the right wing. The other key performer has to be loanee Owen Goodman, who has prevented 1.78 xG, keeping three clean sheets in the process. 

 

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I just had to take a little dive into the numbers, it wouldn't be a Steinkelsson update if I didn't provide you with a bit of oversight from within the Data Hub.

Our aerial data metric is great, another output which is aiding our ability to not present our opponents with shot creating actions. You can see from the below that we head the ball more than the average team, clearly heightened by the presence of the target man, and PI's to look for him when crossing the ball. However, pairing this with the fact that 45% of our defensive actions take place within our own box, and 72% when combined with the final third, you can see that we are aerially dominant. We have won 147 headers, which places us 5th in the league, Crewe lead the way with 173. 

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Another factor to securing the early victories is our set-piece, we hold the highest set piece expected assists per game value at this early stage and have already scored four goals from our corner routine. 

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This beauty has been pinched borrowed from on-line, it was one of the routines which was used in the FM24 World Cup, and boy oh boy it is pretty effective. The routine is a bit of smoke and mirrors, having two aerial threats lurking at the far post, with the idea of drawing the defenders to these decoy targets. You will note there is a player coming short, again with the view to taking an opponent out of the equation, The delivery is aimed for the near post, to our strongest headerer of the ball, who currently is doing his part in converting a decent amount of these chances. 

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Below is the next block of games which will see us play 24th Accrington, 22nd Tranmere, and 15th placed Colchester in the league. We could well be setting ourselves up well for when the schedule increases in toughness, which no doubt is going to happen when it is cold, and wet. 

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Edited by SteinkelssonFM
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56 minutes ago, SteinkelssonFM said:

@Jimbokav1971 you will be pleased to know that I uploaded the Sortitoutsi data update for this save and Matty is already with us at the club, his image is in the post above and resembles someone from T.O.W.I.E. I already checked and found that he was born in Guildford, he is quite the journeyman having played for the likes of Barnet, Peterborough, Cambridge City, Kettering, Slough, Forest Green, Stevenage. and Walsall. None of which appear to be for more than a season in duration.

Ah brill. Didn't realise you had a data update. 

I'm a Barnet fan which is how I know about him. Cambridge, Kettering & Slough all loan moves I think, so really just Barnet to Posh to FGR.

He is a goal-scoring machine who has been unlucky with injuries. 

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I hope you are all well, it's time to again report on the progress being made with AFC Wimbledon down in south-west London. On a personal note it is always a good thing when you are eager to set aside some time in the work/life diaries to delve into the world of FM. Despite being early days.

I am really enjoying this save, the beauty of not having rows and rows of players to get your head around, along with AFC Wimbledon having a pretty strong social media presence, has helped me to get onto the terms of the club pretty swiftly. 

The Wombles had a Dream Podcast and The Official AFC Wimbledon Podcast also have been playing during my commutes/working day.

 

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The hard and fast lowdown is as follows, five games played, three wins, one draw, and one loss (on penalties) is the overarching summary of block two. 

However, for those of you that would like a little more detail I will look to provide a mini summary on the five fixtures. 

QPR: We took the Championship side the distance in this fixture and only marginally lost the xG battle, with QPR running out a +0.44 difference. Despite only seeing 24% of the ball QPR failed to carve open a single clear cut chance. Whilst this is our first defeat on paper, the Carabao Cup isn't the main cup which we strive for a long cup run in, the break in fixtures is welcomed, as the pace is pretty frantic.

Accrington Stanley: The game against Accrington was a bit of one-way traffic. We managed to create five clear cut chances, and closed the game with four players accumulating over 0.50 xA. Lebanese international Omar Bugiel closed the game with 1.35 xG without hitting the back of the net, and was the first player of the new 'Crazy Gang' era to receive his marching orders, picking up a straight red card for a two footed challenge when tracking back.

Chelsea U21: We showed our resilience against a Chelsea U21 side which included the likes of Harvey Vale, Carney Chukwuemeka, and Deivid Washington. Coming from come behind to pick up all three points in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy.  Lewis Ward (reserve goalkeeper) showed what he was made of with his 84th minute penalty heroics, denying Harvey Vale an equaliser. 

Tranmere Rovers: We dropped points in the league in this fixture, which well and truly was a fair result. The game rarely progressed past the middle of the park, with both attacks not firing, and the general play lacking any form of fluidity. I tried to make some smart changes in-game both tactically (playing more direct) and through the use of subs (all used by the 58th minute). However, in hindsight I could have had a bit of an adverse effect.

Colchester United: A big statement at the end of the block, as we come from behind to secure victory on the road. The three points were down to an inspired performance by Josh Neufille as the 23-year-old bagged a hattrick from 0.48 xG - tipping the game on its  head and securing the W against the form books, as Colchester edged the xG battle 0.77 vs 0.75.

 

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We are now on a run of seven games without defeat in the league, scoring the most goals (20) six more than our expected goals for figure of 13.68 (second highest in the league). All doing so with an expected goals against figure of 5.06 (the lowest in the league). I will leave the stats out for now, I want to look at them in more detail after the next update.

 

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I wanted to take a little time to focus on the early season performances of Josh Neufville, as the 23 year-old has been the standout individual of the 'Return of The Dons' save to-date.

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The above visual shows his form in League Two in which he has an average ratting of 7.74, scoring five goals, and creating two assists in 691 minutes. 

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Playing in the role of a winger on attacking duty, Josh is outperforming many attacking midfielders when looking at his stats per 90 percentile rank. Let's look at the role description in game for the winger.

The Winger aims to beat his man on the outside and needs to be technically proficient as well as quick in order to do so. 

The Winger hugs the touchline when the team is going forward, ready to surge into space and attack the byline. 

Clearly Josh possesses the pace (14) and acceleration (14) needed at this level to beat his man, enabling him to progress the ball reflected in his 3.00 dribbles per 90. 

With an attacking duty the Winger will try to run at the defence in the final third, aiming to cause panic and indecision prior to shooting or attempting to make a through ball/cross to a team mate.

Looking at his technical ability, particularly those attributes needed to play those key passes, passing (9), and technique (9). You wouldn't expect him to be doing as well as he is with regards to his open play key passes which sits at 1.95 per 90.

Especially when you consider his mentals, anticipation (7), decision (7), and vision (8). 

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Josh has some great preferred moves, which clearly are helping him to excel within the game. I am already looking to develop him as an individual through training him to get forward whenever possible, he is causing havoc in the final third, we want him to be there more often than not. 

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I have highlighted the above visuals from the player performance tab, Josh is a huge outlier currently with regards to his expected attacking outputs. He is both creating and accumulating a high number of expected goals and assists, his profile is so unique that no other individual in the league is matching his outputs. George Hall of Walsall is the closest, playing as an attacking midfielder.

The next two visuals show that Josh is more of an attacking winger, rather than a creative one. 

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The below visuals have been snipped to help provide you with an understanding of how Josh is impacting the game creatively. You can see that his key passes stem from position both inside and outside of the box, whilst most of his dribbles are in the direction of the touchline, away from the numbers, often into space. 

His heatmaps slightly favour the half-space, he isn't hugging the touchline as you would expect from a proper old school winger. However, you need to remember we aren't dominating possession, and if we were playing a possession based game model I would expect his heat maps would have a greater saturation in the final third. 

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The hattrick scored against Colchester was the first one of the save, crediting his ability to be the game changer which we will need, especially as time goes by and teams look to sit in a low block to protect themselves from our ability to counter effectively. 

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The completion of block three will see us a quarter of the way through the EFL League Two season, at which point I will look to showcase a few headline team stats. In the league we face 18th placed Newport, and 12th place Chesterfield at home, before travelling to Swindon (19th), and our toughest test to-date in Gillingham (5th).

Edited by SteinkelssonFM
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@danyates8 I genuinely don't know what I will do without the chalkboard in FM25, I think the tool is a great way to produce your tactical analysis, and is often a go to for working out where players are contributing, sometimes at a micro level.

I enjoyed producing the bespoke piece above on Neufville. Again, I think creating these little snippets help to provide me with that little bit of escapism, and hopefully provides you all as readers with a better insight as to how I play the game. 

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Another day, another update! We are now mid-October in game and the atmosphere around the club is very good. There is a strong sense of unity between the players, who also are happy with Steinkelsson as their manager, and are enjoying playing for me. 

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Team cohesion is still average, you can see from the above that we have been warned about the team’s collective metal state. Therefore, there is a need to switch up some of the training routines to include those all important team bonding / community outreach sessions.

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 Hopefully this will also enable a change in the off-field dynamics and enable Joe Lewis to find a social group within the club. Ideally it would be grand if we can reduce the secondary social groups to just the one, leading to a more inclusive club. 

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We managed to continue where we left off, riding the green wave for the most of block three. Our ability to convert chances is one area of this save which has impressed me in the early days, you will note we have again managed to score three or more goals in three of the five fixtures. In fact we have now scored over three goals in eight of our 15 competitive fixtures (53%). 

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Of course there is one glaring anomaly in this block, the defeat at home to Chesterfield, which I have opted to make explicit for you all to enjoy above. 

The defeat was our first in the league. However, looking at the below you will see that we were well and truly played off our own park. In fact when considering the match momentum, we were hardly involved in the game. 

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This got me thinking, what did Chesterfield do so well, that enabled them to secure such a significant stronghold on the game. 

I opted to select a sample of games in which we failed to create a high volume of expected goals, which provided me with a sample size of four. Looking first at the passing outputs, I think it is fair to come to the assumption that their 532 passes completed is a fair indicator as to why they were able to have the dominant role of the match momentum. However, given we are a side which doesn't see the majority of the ball in games, it doesn't go to show how our opponents closed us out.

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Looking at the percentage of tackles won, this does give us an indication as to how Chesterfield stopped us from impacting the game in an attacking sense. This figure is 10% higher than any other games within the sample, and when pulling up the chalkboard, you can see that every tackle won stemmed from their own half. Chesterfield played with a lower defensive line of engagement, this paired with their ability to win the aerial duels nullified our ability to play direct, and killed us off.

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Again, for those of you that actually like to know a little about each game, instead of simply scanning through the numbers.

Newport County: Our player focused on in the last update Josh Neufville picked up where he left off scoring the opening goal in this game. Despite what looked like a comprehensive victory, the much needed buffer wasn’t secured until the 90th minute and beyond, with late goals through Matty Stevens, and Ryan Johnson.

Chesterfield: As per the above. 

Swindon Town: We showed our ability to put the defeat against Chesterfield behind us, to pick up three more points on the road. Playing 442, we managed to exploit the space behind our opponents wing-backs, who set up in a 3-5-2. We did have to endure a tough spell in the second half, in which Swindon halved our two goal lead. 

Swindon Town: The decision to reward 19 year-old Aron Sasu with a place in the match day squad was well and truly justified. Aron emerged from the bench at the break to replace Joe Pigott as the advanced forward. Aron immediately acted as our catalyst, providing three assists as we scored four second-half goals.

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Gillingham: This game was a bit of a goal frenzy, with seven goals scored across the 90 minutes. Poor goalkeeping and luck played its part with these goals stemming from a combined xG of 3.37. Sasu, rewarded for his performance in the last match was again used from the bench, and picked up another assist. The run of goals was always in our favour, it was only in the 90th minute when our opponents made it a one score game.

 

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Block four provides us with the comfort of having to travel less, the games against Doncaster (6th), Crewe (8th), and Port Vale will be a real test of our character. If we can secure nine points from this run of games (three home wins) I think we'd have done exceptionally well.

 

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Now for the bit of the game which provides me with so much enjoyment, time to take another dive into the data hub, this time looking at our attacking and defensive team outputs against our competition. 

The below outputs have been achieved whilst securing 43% possession, the fourth lowest in League Two to-date, currently MK MK Dons are aligning their game model to Guardiola’s Manchester City, with 63% possession.

 

Attacking outputs for your viewing pleasure:

  • Goals scored - 29 (1st place) Morecambe find themselves second with 21.

  • Non penalty expected goals - 18.14 (1st place) MK Dons are second with 16.51. 

  • Cross completion - 20% (1st) - a pleasing output, especially when considering our game model.

  • Goals from corners - seven (2nd) a single goal behind leaders Walsall.

  • Chances created - 51 (1st), nine more than second placed MK Dons.

  • Shots for - 148 joint 1st with Doncaster, we are volume shooters.

  • Shots on target - 47% (2nd) despite being a volume shooter, we are effective at hitting the target.

  • Conversion rate - 19% (1st) we also are the best at converting our chances.

  • Final third passes per game - 54, the sixth lowest in the league. 

 

Defensive outputs for your viewing pleasure:

  • Conceded - 8 goals, one more than both Chesterfield, and Walsall.

  • Expected goals against - 10.2, the second lowest.

  • Fouls made - 142 (4th place)

  • Tackles won - 232 (2nd) get stuck in working wonders.

  • Final third passes against per game - 54 (5th place)

 

Side note: we have the most yellow cards (16), and are only a red card away from joining Crewe at the top. 

I appreciate that we are now 11 games into the season, and I am yet to show you the EFL League Two table. Regarding club form, and lack of. Walsall currently have the best form in the league, they have not suffered defeat in 10 games, whilst Cheltenham are on the opposite end of this spectrum, winless in 11 games. 

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We have created a six point buffer at the top of the league, outperforming our early season expectations, placing us 10 points clear of Colchester who occupy the last vacant spot in the playoffs.

 

Edited by SteinkelssonFM
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Today’s update is simply that, an update. 

This will ensure that I spend the weekend progressing with the save rather than writing the usual in-depth post. Saying that, there wasn’t too much going on in between my ears over this period, you will see from the below that we managed to pick up near maximum points, a feat which would have been achieved if we didn’t concede late on at the EnviroVent Stadium. 

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Cheltenham: We opened the block against lowly ranked Cheltenham at the Cherry Red Records Stadium in a game which I was hoping for a cricket score. Looking at the below chalkboard you will see the onslaught which Joe Day faced in the visitors goal. 17 key passes lead to 13 shots from inside the opposition's box and 3.24 expected goals, how we only managed to score the single goal is beyond me. We were on 0.18 xG per shot, and in the end were grateful for James Tilley’s 40th minute penalty, the match winner. Omar Bugiel accumulated the highest expected goals value without scoring 1.13.

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Doncaster: The Doncaster fans must be livid, Grant McCann’s side made the 360 mile round trip, clearly with no desire to win the game. What makes me say that? The fact we managed to close the game with 57% possession, this is the first time this season we have finished any game seeing more of the ball than our opponents, what a stat! 

Harrogate: The draw in the end was a fair result, Sam Folarin the hero for the home side, snatching a point at the death. The 24 year-old winger must have felt justice was served as he had a goal disallowed earlier in the game for a questionable offside. 

Crewe: Lee Bell’s side have either been running hot or cold with regards to their form, thankfully we managed to catch them on an off day. A first-half hat trick, a proper one if we were from Germany was scored by Omar Bugiel, in a performance which saw the Lebanese international become the first player of the save to secure a perfect 10 player rating.

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Crewe didn’t lay down, Bell would be pleased with his side's response in the second half, which will provide ‘The Railwaymen’ fans with the assurance that their side are still determined, and promise for the future. 

AFC Fylde (FA Cup): We were drawn against lowly ranked (15th) Vanarama National League side in the first round of the FA Cup, a competition which we are striving to win, as laid out in our save objectives. Whilst this is highly unlikely at this very early stage in the competition, we will keep our fingers crossed for an away day at a Premier League club to secure some much needed revenue. 

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Block four is certainly harder on paper than block three, and could be our toughest run of fixtures to-date. Port Vale find themselves in 8th place. However, they are winless in the last three games. Carlisle (14th), Walsall (EFL Trophy) (7th), Notts County (10th), and the big one against rivals MK Dons. 

 

@warlock Yes, we doing well defensively, to hold such a low xGA value 12.43, and to have only conceded 10, means that only two other sides in the league are doing better. Cheltenham have conceded 25.29 xGA and only conceded 21. I think we certainly contributed to this, and Walsall who have 17.63 xGA and conceded 11, a much better scenario.

In terms of goals scored we are currently outperforming our xG value of 28.18 by 8 goals, can we continue to convert at our current rate, will this impact our form, time will tell. 

FYI we are topping the expected points table so rightly hold onto top spot. However, we are outtperfroming our expected points total by nine, Fleetwood are also second on both fronts, yet only outperform by three. 

 

Edited by SteinkelssonFM
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On 23/10/2024 at 21:47, SteinkelssonFM said:

@danyates8 I genuinely don't know what I will do without the chalkboard in FM25, I think the tool is a great way to produce your tactical analysis, and is often a go to for working out where players are contributing, sometimes at a micro level.

I enjoyed producing the bespoke piece above on Neufville. Again, I think creating these little snippets help to provide me with that little bit of escapism, and hopefully provides you all as readers with a better insight as to how I play the game. 

When you disappear for long periods of time, I forgot how much your writing style has inspired my own! Simply sublime writing and, in particular, a great piece of Neufville. One of my thoughts in my own posts, going forward, is almost to create a Twitter styled thread/post about statistical outputs from games but I've switched - currently - to motor through a couple of seasons before coming back to that game by game analysis. Obviously, what you create is of great inspiration to me.

In terms of the chalkboard - I think it might still be there in game just not out of game. Or, from what I inferred, may be there in a different way. I find it really useful and contextual - yeah, knowing my player has completed eight dribbles is great but I do need to know where these were completed to understand how effective he was. Surely that can't be removed from the game?!

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