Group A
1. Germany - They have improved a lot since the autumn. The performance of German clubs in Europe in the second half of the season suggests that a strong showing will follow in the summer. Plus it's the Germans on home soil and you would be mad to write them off. Probably the third favourites for me behind France and England.
2. Switzerland - Switzerland always get through the groups and into the last 16. A slightly dicey qualifying performance and a tough group makes me slightly doubt them this time but, ultimately, I think Switzerland are gonna Switzerland. I have slight concerns about how Switzerland's core is going to stay together over the next tournament cycle.
3. Hungary - This is (in my view) the toughest group to qualify from in the entire tournament. There are 4 good teams in this group. Hungary have improved a lot over the past 2 or 3 years and I have bad memories of their recent successes against England. This Hungary side could surprise a lot of people at this Euros. Szoboszlai is arguably Hungary's greatest player for 20/30 years.
4. Scotland - Unfortunate to be in a tough group. In most other groups as the third seed I would back them to make it through the group stage. Ultimately I placed them bottom because of a lack of experience of success at major tournaments. Ultimately, Scotland are gonna Scotland.
Group B
1. Spain - I'm not entirely sure what to expect from Spain at the Euros. They always seem to play well in games yet, in recent tournaments, they always seem to be caught out in a game where they dominate the ball, can't break an opponent down and get caught on the break. It still worries me that they don't have a killer player in forward areas who can convert a tight game into a win.
2. Italy - Not a great Italy side but still a strong side. I think they'll get through the group stages relatively comfortably. They feel like a last-16/QF team to be honest. Interested to see how Spalletti adapts to international management.
3. Croatia - The Croatian golden generation is on its way out if it hasn't gone already. There is still talent in the squad but maybe not enough to go as far as in recent tournaments. Doubts remain about Dalic.
4. Albania - Had an incredible qualifying campaign and could have found a way through a lot of groups in this tournament. Sadly they drew three Euros heavyweights so it's probably an early elimination for them.
Group C
1. England - This is England's best chance to win a tournament since 1966 - only France are more heavily favoured than the Three Lions. A potential front four of Kane, Bellingham, Foden and Saka with the likes of, for example, Cole Palmer to come off the bench would excite any fan. The test is going to be whether Southgate can get the balance right in general (history suggests he will) and if he can find it in him to make a key sub or tactical decision at a key moment in the knockouts (history suggests he won't).
2. Denmark - I have some doubts about Denmark entering this tournament. They look to be a weaker side than they were four years ago with the likes of Eriksen and Hojbjerg being less effective than they were then. The only big upgrade for them is Hojlund up front. The Danes should have enough quality and nous to get through the group stages but doubt they go much further.
3. Serbia - I expect them to be similar to their 2022 performance albeit with a better chance of getting through given the structure of the tournament. They should score lots but they should also concede lots. Their fate will depend on getting the balance right to allow their attacking talent to shine.
4. Slovenia - Capable of causing an upset with Oblak in net and Sesko scoring up front. Sadly the players in between Oblak and Sesko leave a lot to be desired and they look to be the weakest team in the group.
Group D
1. France - The favourites once again for a major tournament. There are sides who can compete with France's first XI but nobody can compete with the level of depth they have across the board. After disappointing in the last two tournaments, this France squad will be looking to cement their legacy here.
2. Holland - Not the most exciting Holland team. Similar to Italy, there's a good level of talent throughout the squad without anything that really stands out to make you believe that the Dutch are potential winners.
3. Austria - Rangnick has (so far) been a hit as Austria manager. With a squad of players who are comfortable in the Red Bull system or similar systems, he should be able to get the Austrians through to the knockouts. Austria are a potential surprise package here.
4. Poland - They scraped through qualifying, Lewandowski is ageing and they always seem to underwhelm at major tournaments. I expect a group stage elimination and the usual accompanying gnashing of teeth that accompanies an underachieving Poland side.
Group E
1. Belgium - A first opportunity for Belgium to appear after the loss of most of their golden generation. Even though this group probably doesn't match up to their 2016-2018 peak, there should be enough talent for them to have a good tournament and to reach the knockouts. A kindish draw likely also leaves open a route to another quarter-final.
2. Ukraine - Dovbyk and Mudryk will likely form the core of a Ukraine side who should do well in the tournament's weakest group. I expect the Ukrainians to have a solid tournament.
3. Romania - This was a bit of toss-up between Romania and Slovakia. Romania were marginally the more impressive of the sides in qualifying so I will probably back them to sneak into third. I expect this to be one of the two groups where two sides go home.
4. Slovakia - The loss of Hamsik is clear in a side which is far less exciting than the previous Slovakian generation. They are alright enough to get to the Euros but I'm not sure they have enough to get to the knockout stages of major tournaments anymore.
Group F
1. Portugal - Probably the fourth favourites. They have talent throughout the pitch and destroyed anything that crossed them in qualifying. Ronaldo drama and questions about Bobby Martinez as a tournament winning manager likely hold them back from being the favourites' pick at this tournament.
2. Turkey - Ordinarily I'm the guy rubbishing Turkey while others talk them up. This time I think there is some substance behind them and I do expect them to actually reach the last 16. Likely to be followed by a pretty swift elimination once they get there.
3. Czech Republic - Decent side, very physical with a few good players dotted around. Are very capable of making the last 16 but look to be a bit weaker than last Euros' quarter-finalists.
4. Georgia - Great shot at a first tournament in a group where they could spring a surprise. Need Kvaratskhelia to be his 2022/23 self rather than his 2023/24 self as they'll need their match-winner at their first major tournament.
Tbf I think Portugal-Slovenia would be 90-10 BUT it’s on that dodgy Frankfurt pitch which I can see derailing a Bobby Martinez side against someone playing a low block. So I make it like 70-30 to Portugal