Does anyone else have this problem? Teams scoring against you with their first shot on target?
I thought that maybe I was experiencing some recency bias because it seemed that it was happening way more often in the game than it does in real life. So, I decided to record some stats. Over a span of 50 games, my team conceded goals in 22 of them. 10 of which were scored by the opposition's first shot on target. One of those goals was a penalty.
Percentage of games where my team conceded a goal, that were also the first shot on target is 45.45%. And as a percentage of total games played, its 20%. Basically, if I concede in any given game, there's a, petty much, 1 in 2 chance the opponent scores with their first shot on target. Or, out of any given game, a 1 in 5 chance.
The average xG for these goals from the first shot on target is 0.21, and the median is 0.10. Excluding the penalty, this drops down to an average of 0.15 xG and a median of 0.08 xG.
It's not like these chances are big chances that the opponent is scoring from (penalty excluded). A median of 0.08xG is below average. So, like, what's the deal with this? Does anyone have a similar experience?
I feel like my team very rarely scores with its first shot on target. I'll test it out over the next 50 games and see how it stacks up.
