[English Premier Division Data [Discussion]]

On 22/10/2023 at 12:58, Rags89 said:

Hello, thanks for the work into the new game- really enjoying it thus far. Although mostly spot on, I wonder whether a few attribute changes to some Villa players could better mirror reality and add to the immersion of the game. The goal here is not buffs or nerfs for the sake of it but to better reflect the tactical style of Villa under Emery through the attribute system. I understand this is subjective but in previous iterations I've had really constructive conversations with the Villa researcher @LewParsonsAVFC so I thought it might be worth adding my thoughts:

Martinez: I think generally because he plays for Villa he's underrated by football supporters outside of B6 and Argentina, but 'Capable GK' seems a bit of an understatement  . Getting away from subjectivity, Emery has turned him into a high frequency sweeper. Villa play a very high line and Martinez's ability to read and intercept opponents through balls is absolutely key to this.  He does this very often and with a high (but not perfect) level of success. This is reflected here in the data: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/total_keeper_sweeper?po=GOALKEEPER. Martinez is an extremely imposing Goalkeeper in the box and mobs up any floated crosses that come near him. This is reflected in fbref data: https://fbref.com/en/players/7956236f/Emiliano-Martinez. Suggested changes: Rushing out: 14>17, Positioning 13 > 15, Jumping reach 15 > 17 CofA 14 > 17. These are huge buffs, I know but Martinez has the accolades and the evidence base to back them up. Think of the Argentinians! 

Torres: I feel a bit of a rework is needed here. He is a fantastic player on the ball, but defensively perhaps not quite so much. Torres is not the best in the air, in fact the stats https://fbref.com/en/players/532e1e4f/Pau-Torres and the eye test suggests he's below average, due to his limited physicality. I think a big nerf here is necessary. Strength 16 > 13 Jumping reach 17 > 14 Bravery 14 > 12. He also doesn't seem the quickest off the mark. Acceleration 15 > 12. He is however an elite level ball-player and line breaking cb. A buff here would reflect how Emery uses him in the Villa system. Passing: 14 > 16, Vision 11 > 13, Composure 12 > 15, dribbling 11 > 13. Some traits could also match how he plays IRL i.e. switches ball to other flank, tries through balls. Leadership at 6 seems very low for an experience player at the highest level, perhaps the Villareal researcher could shed some light on that.  

Mings:  Mings is a bit of a colossus in the air and 6'5 and physically very strong: Jumping 15 > 17 Strength 15 > 17. Passing dribbling perhaps a touch generous and could be downgrading to balance things out. Passing 15 > 13 Dribbling 13 > 10.

Digne: Digne is comfortably slower IRL than is reflected in his attributes. This is obviously an eye test thing but for eg when Villa went to Anfield TAA and Salah exploited this a few times. Acc/Pace: 15/14 > 13/13

Douglas Luiz: The buffs here are noted (CA buff to 73), thank you! The trouble I have with his representation in game is he's not really the stand out player technically he is IRL and Luiz's best role in game is Mezzala. It just doesn't reflect the reality of how Emery is using Luiz, IMO. I don't have much stats wise to back this up, other than fairly arbitrary player rating stats, it's all eye test so I'll just leave this as a discussion point. EDIT: After watching the West Ham match I believe all his attributes should be changed to 20  EDIT: Having viewed the CA buffs of comparative midfielders like Bissouma (CA 80, 3 point buff on last season, and Bruno G (CA 83, an excellent season, but he's not 10 CA points better than Luiz) I do think a bigger Luiz buff is warranted. He was Villa's SPotS and PPotS, and he's started the season on fire.  

That's it other than to mention Rory Wilson is 183cm https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/rory-wilson/profil/spieler/924859 and in game is 176cm and McGinn needs taking off the transfer list. Thanks for reading and considering these points. 

 

 

 

BUMP  

[English Premier Division Data [Discussion]]

10 hours ago, ChrisNUFC said:

Goalkeepers

 

I haven't looked through this in great detail yet, but really confused by how highly rated Caomin Kelleher is. 24 years old with a total of 27 senior appearances, yet they're 15th best GK in PL. based on CA of 141. Some questions over composure 14, first touch 14,  heading 10, passing 14, technique 13. Appreciate he's at Liverpool at might be learning from Alisson, yet it feels very high and if certainly if he was so highly regarded in those areas I can imagine Liverpool would have had several offers for the player given the current trend towards GK being a true outfield player when in possession. Especially considering his concentration and consistency is also 14, along with decisons 13. 

 

Agility

On initial inspection, it looks like there could be some coordination between researchers, or perhaps suggested guidelines to help get a structured approach on agility. There are some very tall and also some heavy goalkeepers who have been rated surprisingly agile. I'd consider agility to be more than a person's ability to simply dive, but also what kind of save they're making. A low down save with hands or feet requires more agility than a top corner dive, another example would be single hand scoop pulling the ball back from behind the GK requires a lot of agility. While its not always the case, GKs with a slight frame tend to be more agile than taller or bulkier GKs. You could also consider a person's age and injury history (certainly if they've had a torn rotator cuff for example). 

So seeing the likes of 36 year old Darren Randolph (188cm/98kg) with an agility of 14, which is similar to Jose Sa (192cm/84gk) doesn't look right out in the pure data sense, and makes me think one should be lower and another should be higher. 

I'd also take into consideration a GK's bodyshape when looking at things like balance too, especially their set stance and and footwork. Do they have a straight back or are their sticking their backside out when set. Can they move their feet in quick shuffles sideways to help launch themselves into a dive or do they push/flop from a set position? 

Cross Claiming and dealing with Corners

This is a major issue for GKs at the moment, and I think the above attributes should be grouped together to help deterimine if a GK is good at claiming crosses in open play and during set peices. 

Aggression - I feel this should be used and judged on how confident the GK is at attacking the ball while it is in flight
Bravery - Key to the above when dealing with a congested penalty area
Strength - How well they can move through a crowded penalty area (linked to balance above for footwork)
Anticipation - Recognising where the location of the highest point they (GK) can catch the ball (Do they often move under a ball when coming to claim?)
Decisions - Absolute key attribute for GKs, which should be modified by aggression and bravery. For example: Do they come and claim? Do they catch or punch? Is it a single handed punch for extended reach or a double fist puch for security at the expense of reach? Do they recognise they're inability to claim crosses and instead call for the defenders to clear it? Do they spot if it is an outswinger or inswinging cross and change on they'll attack the ball
Eccentricity - I feel like this is a difficult one for people to come to an agreed decision upon. But for me I'll always think of it as how well does the GK inspire confidence in the rest of the team during a game. Are they consistent with their decision making, technique, secure handling, etc. or is every cross/shot a new experience with parries and fisted saves pushing the ball wildly into the unknown. Similar for GKs who play out from the back, do they stick to the pattern of play or do they scramble and play wild passes into players who wouldn't normally receive a pass when playing out from the back. 

Jumping Reach and Areial Abiltiy being the GKs overall ability to jump and reach to their highest point
Command of Area and Communication organisation of the defensive unit, stop the cross, defending the 6 yard, pen spot, 18 yard, push out, etc. 

With that in mind, if we add up the attributes and minus eccentricity we should get an idea of who the best GKs are with cross claiming:

If we compare this with: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/total_high_claim you can start to see a picture of who might be better than others at deal with crosses. Of course a TOTAL stat doesn't show you success rate. Sky Sports ran this at the start of the season: https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12933578/best-goalkeeper-in-the-premier-league-revealed-andre-onana-david-raya-and-robert-sanchez-transfers-analysed showing the best GKs at claiming crosses were: 

Goalkeeper.com data vs (SI)

1. Martinez (Alisson)
2. Pope (Ederson)
3. Alisson (Raya)
4. Ederson (Onana)
5. Raya (Vicario)
6. Leno (Martinez)
7. Kepa (Neto)
8. Ramsdale (Areola)* Omitted Dubravka as Sky Sports only used primary GKs from the 22/23 season

Which suggests that Martinez, Pope, Leno, and Ramsdale have perhaps been slightly undervalued at cross claiming, although, I could have easily overthought how much the attributes matter for cross claiming. 

If we look at it in a simpler sense:

This is how goalkeeper.com's data ranked the GKs last season based on 6 factors: Shotstopping and parries; Sweeping and Cross Claiming; Shot Prevention and Distribution.

The above are the top 20 GKs in the PL based on CA. 

goalkeeper.com vs (SI)

1. Martinez (Ederson)
2. Alisson (Alisson)
3. Leno (Martinez)
4. Raya (Raya)
5 Pope (Onana)
6. Kepa (Pickford)
7. Ramsdale (Vicario)
8. Guaita (Kepa)
9. De Gea (Pope)
10. Ederson (Neto)
11. Fabianksi (Ramsdale)
12. Neto (Leno)
13. Pickford (Sanchez)
14. Henderson (Steele)
15. Sa (Kelleher)
16. Sanchez (Areola)
17. Mslier (Turner)
18. Ward (Flekken)
19. Lloris (Sa)
20. Bazunu (Johnstone)

Again this is only one dataset comparison, so hardly conclusive, but it does show that perhaps a few GKs have been undervalued and perhaps some have been overvalued in their worth. 

So let's check: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2022-2023/keepersadv/2022-2023-Premier-League-Stats which provides a little more detail

Their Top 5 is:

1. Martinez
2. Raya
3. Pope
4. Sa
5. Bazunu

 

GK - fbref - SI

1. Martinez  - Martinez - Alisson
2. Pope - Raya - Ederson
3. Alisson - Pope -  Raya
4. Ederson - Sa - Onana**
5. Raya - Bazunu - Vicario***
6. Leno - Meslier - Martinez
7. Kepa - Steele - Neto
8. Guaita  - Leno - Areola* Omitted Dubravka as Sky Sports only used primary GKs from the 22/23 season
9 Ramsdale - Sanchez - Flekken
10 Sanchez - Henderson - Ramsdale*Omitted Lloris as Vicario is now 1st choice at Tottenham

The noticable name here is Martinez, who seems to have had his ability to deal with crosses overlooked.

**Onana ranked 11th in Serie A last season for crosses stopped % with 5.3%, which would have had him ranked 20th overall in the 22/23 EPL season.
***Vicario ranked 9th in Serie A last season for crosses stopped with 5.6%, which would have had him ranked 18th overall in the 22/23 EPL season. 

I'm sure the same could be done for distribution, sweeping, held shots vs parries, etc. but I've only had time to look at cross claiming. In short, EPL GKs, from what I can see, need some consistency to their ratings and look either overvalued or undervalued perhaps due to CA guidelines. 

 

Below are the GK cross stats so far this season. 

It's nice for a neutral to point out how good Emi Martinez is. Most neutrals seem to hate him, and the idea an elite player could play for Aston Villa is a difficult one for many, despite in this case, the player winning literally every individual and collective international allocate he can. Thank you.

[Brentford players attributes]

On 26/10/2023 at 09:39, Brentford Alan said:

BM missed a host of chances last season, some easy ones as well, he's improved this season and will be reviewed for the winter update accordingly. He does have plenty of CA-PA space to allow growth as the game progresses,.

Increasing Toney's finishing would also have a large CA impact, so we'd need to lower other attributes accordingly. I'd suggest the others may be over rated and need decreasing, personally. There's too much focus in the FM community on raising players attributes just because someone else has a high rating. His penalty taking is rated at 19 already, and a lot of his success is down to outsmarting the GK rather than pinpointing them in to the top corner. He will of course be reviewed for the winter update when he's back playing.

Toney looks pretty accurate to me, but I guess a deduction in pace/acc could be deemed a realistic nerf to balance out with a finishing buff. 

[English Premier Division Data [Discussion]]

2 hours ago, jacob_m_mack said:

He isn't actually per FBref, he has 39 progressive passes to Romero's 50. Maybe if you're using a different stats provider though? Not sure what exactly that has to do with anything though, not trying to get bogged down in the semantics of what stats provider to use, or who specifically has better stats than who, just trying to illustrate that Romero is one of the most progressive CBs in the league and that current his attribute spread and PPMs don't lead to him performing as such in the game.

Are you are using a small sample size of just this season and total, not p/90? I usually use a 365 day sample on fbref if I want to make a convincing case. 9 games, statistically speaking, is not significant. Over the 365 day period Pau is 5.6 PP p/90. Romero 4.34. If Romero continues his impressive 23/24 output you certainly have a strong case, but just to illustrate the weakness of small sample sizes: over the first 6 game weeks Romero completed 21 PP or 3.5 p/match. Pau completed 31 or 5.3 p/match. 21 PP were in 1 match against Palace. Now, Romero has done fantastic in the last 3 matches vs 10 man Liverpool, Luton and Fulham but who knows if it's sustainable. His career to date suggests not, as do the first 6 weeks of the season.   

[English Premier Division Data [Discussion]]

3 hours ago, jacob_m_mack said:

Seconding Romero's ball-playing being far too poor in the current DB. I think his aggressiveness out of possession has wrongly coloured people's perception of how good he is on the ball. He's joint 3rd among Prem CBs for progressive passes this year, tied with Dias, trailing only Dunk and Andersen. 4th among CBs in progressive passing distance, trailing only Silva, Dunk and Saliba. Also 5th in the entire prem in progressive carrying distance (dribbling attribute of 9 btw). He semi-regularly breaks out of the defensive line and joins in attacks when one of his carries takes him past the first line of the press too, so it's not like he's just running the ball into empty space.

Even if we take the "Don't think about about the number from 1-20, it's about creating an accurate simulation", this doesn't do that, especially with "Dives into tackles" being his only player trait. It might be that Spurs in my save are 17th, but Romero in my save is currently averaging 2.6 progressive passes per 90, well below his averages from both 21-22 and 22-23, and substantially less than half his average from this year. No real way to track progressive carrying, but no reason to assume that would be in-line with real life either, given 9 dribbling and no PPMs that would increase his carrying volume.

But also, when the discrepancies between game and real world are this wild, it's hard not to think of things with the simple 1-20 in mind: objectively one of the best ball-playing centerbacks on the planet should not have the ball-playing attributes of a League One CB.

You are forgetting about Pau Torres. He is clear of Romero in PP and PCD, he is clear of Dias, Dunk and Anderson as well. 

[Martinez underpowered V Onana overpowered]

tbf, although I think Martinez could do with a buff his CA is better than Onanas'. 78 vs 77. I've laid out a better argument for a Martinez buff in the Premier League Data thread. 

[English Premier Division Data [Discussion]]

Hello, thanks for the work into the new game- really enjoying it thus far. Although mostly spot on, I wonder whether a few attribute changes to some Villa players could better mirror reality and add to the immersion of the game. The goal here is not buffs or nerfs for the sake of it but to better reflect the tactical style of Villa under Emery through the attribute system. I understand this is subjective but in previous iterations I've had really constructive conversations with the Villa researcher @LewParsonsAVFC so I thought it might be worth adding my thoughts:

Martinez: I think generally because he plays for Villa he's underrated by football supporters outside of B6 and Argentina, but 'Capable GK' seems a bit of an understatement  . Getting away from subjectivity, Emery has turned him into a high frequency sweeper. Villa play a very high line and Martinez's ability to read and intercept opponents through balls is absolutely key to this.  He does this very often and with a high (but not perfect) level of success. This is reflected here in the data: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/total_keeper_sweeper?po=GOALKEEPER. Martinez is an extremely imposing Goalkeeper in the box and mobs up any floated crosses that come near him. This is reflected in fbref data: https://fbref.com/en/players/7956236f/Emiliano-Martinez. Suggested changes: Rushing out: 14>17, Positioning 13 > 15, Jumping reach 15 > 17 CofA 14 > 17. These are huge buffs, I know but Martinez has the accolades and the evidence base to back them up. Think of the Argentinians! 

Torres: I feel a bit of a rework is needed here. He is a fantastic player on the ball, but defensively perhaps not quite so much. Torres is not the best in the air, in fact the stats https://fbref.com/en/players/532e1e4f/Pau-Torres and the eye test suggests he's below average, due to his limited physicality. I think a big nerf here is necessary. Strength 16 > 13 Jumping reach 17 > 14 Bravery 14 > 12. He also doesn't seem the quickest off the mark. Acceleration 15 > 12. He is however an elite level ball-player and line breaking cb. A buff here would reflect how Emery uses him in the Villa system. Passing: 14 > 16, Vision 11 > 13, Composure 12 > 15, dribbling 11 > 13. Some traits could also match how he plays IRL i.e. switches ball to other flank, tries through balls. Leadership at 6 seems very low for an experience player at the highest level, perhaps the Villareal researcher could shed some light on that.  

Mings:  Mings is a bit of a colossus in the air and 6'5 and physically very strong: Jumping 15 > 17 Strength 15 > 17. Passing dribbling perhaps a touch generous and could be downgrading to balance things out. Passing 15 > 13 Dribbling 13 > 10.

Digne: Digne is comfortably slower IRL than is reflected in his attributes. This is obviously an eye test thing but for eg when Villa went to Anfield TAA and Salah exploited this a few times. Acc/Pace: 15/14 > 13/13

Douglas Luiz: The buffs here are noted (CA buff to 73), thank you! The trouble I have with his representation in game is he's not really the stand out player technically he is IRL and Luiz's best role in game is Mezzala. It just doesn't reflect the reality of how Emery is using Luiz, IMO. I don't have much stats wise to back this up, other than fairly arbitrary player rating stats, it's all eye test so I'll just leave this as a discussion point. EDIT: After watching the West Ham match I believe all his attributes should be changed to 20  EDIT: Having viewed the CA buffs of comparative midfielders like Bissouma (CA 80, 3 point buff on last season, and Bruno G (CA 83, an excellent season, but he's not 10 CA points better than Luiz) I do think a bigger Luiz buff is warranted. He was Villa's SPotS and PPotS, and he's started the season on fire.  

That's it other than to mention Rory Wilson is 183cm https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/rory-wilson/profil/spieler/924859 and in game is 176cm and McGinn needs taking off the transfer list. Thanks for reading and considering these points. 

 

 

[Player transfer choice seems illogical]

Just to add: Is it possible to adjust players accepting AI contract offers for much less wages and money than you have offered, even when your club is the preferred destination? I get it where a player is going to a bigger club or is an unsettled current player, but it's jarring in prospective players due to the higher levels of transparency prior to meeting the agent (player is very interested in joining your club, less interested in other bidding clubs). Example: I offer X player who has stated my club is this no1 choice 55k pw, but ends up going to 2nd choice as squad player on £35pw. I don't think I'd call this a 'bug' as such, and I'm sorry but I do not have the screen shot- it's hard to know this is happening in advance, and the game appears to have deleted the news item that allows you to offer a contract. If I can evidence this better I will but maybe some light can be shed around the logic of player/agent choices here.