going off previous FM winter updates FM21 winter update dropped on Monday 22nd of Feb at 10:03pm GMT while the 2nd part to the winter update didn't drop until Monday 15th March at 10:00pm GMT. Last years FM the first winter update didn't drop until Thursday 24th Feb 4:15pm GMT while the 2nd part of it came out on Thursday 24th March 4:36pm GMT. I think likely outcome of this years winter update could get dropped on us between sometime tomorrow earliest or Thursday at the latest.