Teferi

It's still easy to overachieve, just not to a level of absurdity that was possible in previous editions. In both FM21 and 22 I was able to win the Champions League with Everton in the second season, using mostly youth prospects and the mediocre players who were already at the club. In FM23 you can still qualify for the CL with a midtable club pretty easily, which is still massively overachieving, but it seems a bit harder to win trophies that you should never be winning in a million years.

"We are scoring around as many goals as expected" Let's be real here. Regardless of how you think about the game's handling of xG, this comment is a joke.

"Bizzarre attitude" yeah scoring 2 goals from almost 15xG in 4 consecutive games happens every day in real life right? Or has it literally NEVER happened to any top team ever and SI is just having a stinker with how their game is simulating?

I hate to reopen this thread of complaint but three games in a row like this (after what happened in the OP) is unacceptable. Either fix the ME or put in some sort of false randomizer model when it comes to goals. Nobody enjoys experiencing games such as these. I didn't even bother throwing in this one since we didn't create enough for my liking.

I mean my team was leading the Bundesliga by 6 points and 6 games later I'm down 16 xG to goals with the opposing goalkeepers putting up >8 ratings in 5 of the 6 games. I guess SI games really love Bayern Munich. Them winning the league every year is so fun and they have to guarantee that to happen.

xG is 1-2.1. How is that FM'd at all? Even by some other sources that have it around 1-3 it's still extremely normal. The majority of WC games that are considered to be "upsets" and generate loads of conspiracy theories on social media doesn't even come close to the real FM'd games that you get to experience every day in this great game.

- Must win game - Players can't score from 3.5 xG - Both center backs sent off and one of them for handling the ball in the opponent area - Ended up losing to my substitute CB scoring an own goal If this is not the definition of rigged, I don't know what is. Literally the only reasonable thing to do after this shambles is to save/load. No other course of action possible

Attending/Scouting games of a player you want to sign can sometimes make him decide to sign for you instead of a competing club. At least that's what the game says. No idea if it actually makes a difference in the background.

xG era means less long shots because taking very unlikely shots is almost always bad for your cumulative xG, due to the reason you said. It doesn't mean that a high cumulative xG consisting of low xG shots should result in a worse goalscoring performance. The OP has a specific cumulative xG number. And his team is underperforming significantly. Suggesting that the underperformance is due to the OP's tactics is basically hindsight at its finest. Instead, what would actually be constructive would be "You were unlucky to underperform your xG by so much, but instead here's how you can try to acquire even more xG so that you're fine even when your players underperform". Also, even in real life no team really have the majority of their chances be - to quote the post I responded to - "big jumps" instead of "small steps" on the xG graph. If you look up Man City or Liverpool's xG graphs the majority of their chances are going to be around 0.1 xG. Kevin de Bruyne takes a bunch of low xG shots in his career and in 20/21 he had a season where he underperformed xG by a lot. Based on that logic, KDB should stop doing those useless low xG chances and focus on the high xG ones. Guess what? His average xG per chance was even lower in 21/22 yet he significantly overperformed his xG and helped City win the title. Pretty sure Pep Guardiola did not bring up the concept "big jumps" in his team talks.

It's just poor design of the game. Morale is considered to be way too important in game when in reality there's no statistical proof that it's a thing. Apparently if you didn't win your last three games Messi now works at McD. lol

It's a bug that have existed in previous editions. Some players have their actual playing time as surplus to requirements even though they're playing the exact same amount of games as someone listed as regular starter. You can deal with it by exploiting the playing time unhappiness bug though.

SI is absolutely trolling with this year's edition. Stuff like the preferred to stay on bench couldn't have passed anybody's sanity check before releasing the game, especially after a full beta period. Though tbf I don't think it matters that much anyway. It is just annoying and unrealistic.

There have been a lot of talks about how the game doesn't distinguish between the player and the AI. Well the game doesn't need to specifically do that in order to create a disadvantage for the player. The AI doesn't actually do very well on xG to begin with, so it would very rarely hit the ceiling of a diminishing returns curve, as an outlandish example. So the existence of such a system in the model can almost only be harmful for the player.

That's not how xG works. A small number of high xG chances is better than a large number of low xG chances - but that is because winning 10-0 still only gets you 3 points. The latter team would have lower xPts than the former team, but there is no evidence no reason whatsoever that a team would underperform or overperform on goals based on xG distribution. Your way of thinking is literally the old-school way of "small chances doesn't matter" and "clear-cut chances are good" that have statistically been proven to be inferior at predicting outcomes than xG.

So tired of seasons like this. In 30+ seasons of playing FM since the xG table is made available, I have NEVER seen a single season where the human player gets a significant positive variance. It's always either you get what you create, or you're significantly underperforming for no reason. It's almost like the game has a soft cap on how many goals you're allowed to score, so if your xG performance is way too good for its liking, it just decides to turn your Haaland into prime Benteke. This is completely unrealistic btw. There have never been a single season in the Bundesliga or the Premier League since stats are available where the eventual winners significantly underperforms their xG. The fact that the FM engine thinks that you can do that while playing a good tactic with world class players, is a joke no matter how you frame it. I get that the game is "too easy", since players can still easily win the league while being down 10+ points on xPts. But the game is first and foremost a simulator, and a lot of its value relies on accuracy and realism. The current xG distribution, compared to what actually has been happening in real life where the best teams overperform their xG in more than half of the seasons, simply doesn't seem satisfactory.