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Teams through to the last 16, and to post permutations etc

Lermon

By Lermon,
in 2014 World Cup Forum

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Lermon

Lermon

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So Teams that have booked their last 16 place:

Brazil

Mexico

Netherlands

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Greece

Uruguay

Argentina

And teams 100% OUT:

Cameroon

Australia

SPAIN

ENGLAND

Honduras(edit-aren't 100% out, but 99%)

Bosnia

Croatia

iTALY

Japan

Ivory Coast

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Lermon

Lermon

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A go at permutations:

Group A:

Remaining fixtures: Brazil vs Cameroon, Croatia vs Mexico.

Brazil W/D->Qualify.

Mexico W/D->Qualify.

Croatia W->Qualify.

Brazil L+ Croatia/Mexico draw-> Brazil out. (Goal Difference)

Brazil L+ Mexico win->Brazil through as second place.

Brazil L+ Croatia win->depends on scale of loss of Brazil+Mexico.

Group B:

Remaining fixtures: Netherlands Vs Chile, Spain Vs Australia

Netherlands W/D-> Group winners.

Chile W-> Group Winners, Netherlands Runners Up.

Group C: Razzler has volunteered to do.

Group D:

Remaining fixtures: Italy Vs Uruguay, England Vs Costa Rica

Costa Rica W/D- Winners of group.

Italy W+Costa Rica L, the scale of both Italy's win, Costa Rica's loss determines Winner.

Italy W/D- Qualify.

Uruguay W-> Qualify.

Group E:

Remaining fixtures: France Vs Ecuador, Switzerland Vs Honduras

France W/D-> Group Winners.

France L/Ecuador W/Switzerland W->this is only possibility France doesn't qualify but VERY unlikely due to goal difference.(+6)

Ecuador+Switzerland both rely on the results of each other as each will qualify at the other's expense unless they attain this very high goal margin.

Ecuador W-> Qualify ahead of Switzerland. (unlikely as Group Winners unless by substantial victory)

Switzerland W/Ecuador D/L-> Switzerland qualifies.

Ecuador D/Switzerland D-> Ecuador Qualifies.

Ecuador L/Switzerland L-> Ecuador should qualify. BUT THERE IS A VERY SMALL MATHEMATICAL POSSIBILITY HONDURAS CAN QUALIFY!

Group F:

Remaining fixtures: Argentina Vs Nigeria, Iran vs Bosnia

Argentina W/D-> Winners

Nigeria W/D-> Winners if W, Automatically Qualify at expense of Iran if D.

Iran W/Nigeria L-> Depends on scale of win/Nigeria's defeat if Iran get's second qualifying position.

Nigeria L/Iran D/L-> Nigeria Qualifies.

Group G:

Remaining fixtures: Germany Vs USA, Ghana Vs Portugal

Germany W/D-> Winners

USA W/D-> Qualify

Germany D/USA D-> Ghana/Portugal knocked out regardless of their result.

Portugal W-> Relies on Germany or USA losing, and hoping it's a heavy defeat combined with a sizeable win vs Ghana.

Ghana W->Relies on Germany or USA losing, and obviously needing a larger win, or USA big win to overtake Germany, where as a 1-0 win vs Portugal, and a Germany 1-0 vs USA would have Ghana and US on equal Goal difference.

Group H

Remaining fixtures: A) Russia Vs Algeria, B) South Korea Vs Belgium

Belgium W/D-> Winners.

Belgium L/Algeria W-> Algeria Winners. Belgium 2nd.

Algeria W/D-> W guaranteed qualify, D only hope South Korea don't win by a 3+ margin.

South Korea hope of qualification->winning by bigger margin than either a Russian win, or in general winning by big margin (~3 goals) with match A a draw.

Russia hope of qualification-> Beating Algeria, and hoping South Korea don't thrash Belgium.

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noikeee

noikeee

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Here's a little summary of how the knockouts are most likely gonna look like from the current standings, alternative possibilities on brackets (there's a few other extra possibilities still, but most depend on highly unlikely goal difference swings):

Games leading into semi-final #1

Brazil-Chile

v

Colombia-Italy (COL-URU)

France-Nigeria (FRA-IRN; FRA-ARG)

v

Germany-Algeria (USA-ALG; GER-RUS; USA-RUS)

Games leading into semi-final #2

Netherlands-Mexico

v

Costa Rica-Ivory Coast (CRC-GRE; CRC-JPN)

Argentina-Switzerland (NIG-SWI; ARG-ECU; NIG-ECU)

v

Belgium-USA (BEL-GHA; BEL-GER)

What's most striking to me is the huge difference in theoretical quality from the first half of the draw to the second. Brazil in particular look to have an extremely tough path to a potential home final, having first to deal with Chile, then Colombia/Italy/Uruguay then potentially Germany/France. Whereas the second half of the draw only has two established top teams in Netherlands and Argentina. There's still scope for a few surprises in the final group stage to change the balance of this though - for example if USA beat Germany then they'd send Germany into the second half to face Belgium then potentially Argentina. Conversely, if Nigeria beat Argentina then the 2nd half of the draw looks even weaker in theory (though we'd have a mouth-watering France-Argentina in the round of 16)...

Personally, whilst I don't mind an "alternative" team making it far such as the semi-finals, if it's a talented generation of players for said country (like Chile, Colombia or Belgium in this World Cup; or historical examples like Croatia in 1998, Bulgaria in 1994), I tend to prefer most of the big sides to advance so we can ensure high quality games in the latter stages. We already have one theoretically crappy game ensured in what looks like Costa Rica-Ivory Coast (or even worse, a Costa Rica-Greece!), I don't really want more of that later on. No disrespect to Costa Rica who've massively overachieved already and played much better football than expected, but I'm really hoping we get a Netherlands-Argentina semi-final there, or at least a Netherlands-Belgium. Netherlands seem to have the easiest path to the semi-finals now, I hope they don't screw up.

Looking forward already to what could be a fabulous France-Germany quarter-final, and to all matches of the Brazil/Chile/Colombia/Italy/Uruguay branch of the draw. A potential Argentina-Belgium looks fun, too.

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Razzler

Razzler

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Surely Germany v USA will be a draw? A point puts both teams through and the USA are coached by a German :D

I can't imagine the Americans not wanting to go and approach a game properly. I think it's one of those where you play the normal game for about 60 minutes odd, bit of caution in the back of your mind but when that 70s mins starts creeping around you start not committing as many people forward on both sides and a lot more passes going back to keeper

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DJ

DJ

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Netherlands are in an easy path to the semi final it seems :( mon Mexico!

If anyone on the Oranje team merely hints towards thinking about giving a whiff of suggesting this, I shall have them shot! This is the WC, every game the final, all the teams survived/bossed their groups. Nothing easy about anything.

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DJ

DJ

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I can't imagine the Americans not wanting to go and approach a game properly. I think it's one of those where you play the normal game for about 60 minutes odd, bit of caution in the back of your mind but when that 70s mins starts creeping around you start not committing as many people forward on both sides and a lot more passes going back to keeper

Yeah, Germany to score one, USA to score one back and then they're all going to be sitting on the result. But this will not be a 'gentleman's agreement' from the first minute on.

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PMLF

PMLF

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I hope everyone's happy with Costa Rica vs Greece. :(

A game that describes this World Cup well, too many timecos doing well, too many good teams disappointing/not living up to expectations.

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noikeee

noikeee

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I'm just worried we see some sort of repeat of World Cup 2002 which was to my mind the worst international tournament I've ever seen. 2 highly underwhelming surprise packages in the semi-finals, and a rather uninspiring version of Germany there as well. At least this cup so far we're seeing loads of goals, entertaining football and memorable moments, hopefully it won't be the opposite in the knockout stages.

Again if it's a team like Croatia 1998 or Bulgaria 1994 I'm more than fine with them making it far... and I certainly do give credit to Costa Rica and Greece for showing more quality than expected and surprising a few supposedly better teams. But they're not that sort of wonderfully gifted underdogs are they. Go Netherlands! :thup:

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PMLF

PMLF

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I'm just worried we see some sort of repeat of World Cup 2002 which was to my mind the worst international tournament I've ever seen. 2 highly underwhelming surprise packages in the semi-finals, and a rather uninspiring version of Germany there as well. At least this cup so far we're seeing loads of goals, entertaining football and memorable moments, hopefully it won't be the opposite in the knockout stages.

Again if it's a team like Croatia 1998 or Bulgaria 1994 I'm more than fine with them making it far... and I certainly do give credit to Costa Rica and Greece for showing more quality than expected and surprising a few supposedly better teams. But they're not that sort of wonderfully gifted underdogs are they. Go Netherlands! :thup:

Colombia and Chile are the closest to Croatia/Bulgaria, especially Colombia, shame no way will Colombia be allowed to reach the semis with Brazil in their way.

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noikeee

noikeee

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Colombia and Chile are the closest to Croatia/Bulgaria, especially Colombia, shame no way will Colombia be allowed to reach the semis with Brazil in their way.

Yeah I fully agree, would love to see either side go far. Can't we just swap Greece with Colombia in the draw right now? :D You'd be looking at Brazil-Uruguay and Netherlands-Colombia in the quarters then (potentially).

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DJ

DJ

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I hope everyone's happy with Costa Rica vs Greece. :(

Don't know if it's intentional, but have you any idea how arrogant that sounds? They deserve to be there because they are better than the teams they beat (well, duh). Greece were better than CIV and JAP, CRC are there because they were better than ITA and those eternal also-rans. OK, Greece have their particular brand of football, but scored when called upon. CRC were exciting and no doubt about it.

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DJ

DJ

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I think I've written 3 times already in this thread they've deserved to be there. Doesn't mean I've got to be happy with it.

Thing is, you make it sound like a boring game between the two is a given, whereas big reputation teams would be guaranteed to give us a great game. I think that for example Ronaldo+10 against Pirlo+10 would be the biggest snorefest, given the games so far.

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noikeee

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It certainly wouldn't ensure we'd have more entertaining games necessarily, but there'd be more overall technical quality on the pitch. And by the way I really, really enjoyed watching Pirlo + 10 tiki-taka their way through their opening match vs England - not sure what went on that badly on their other 2 matches afterwards as I wasn't able to watch them fully.

Also, whilst Costa Rica and Greece have shown they can play some surprisingly good counter-attacks, and were more open at times in this tournament than I ever expected (Costa Rica play a 5-4-1 ffs :D), they're still both predominantly defensive teams. It's not really shaping up to be a classic.

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kontermann

kontermann

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I'll take that. :thup:

Especially since it would set up a potential USA-Mexico semifinal. ;)

Loved the moment in the press conference after the game when a cheerful and grinning Klinsmann was asked if USA-GER would draw in the upcoming match and Klinsmanns face just froze, the smile was wiped off all of a sudden and he was totally dead serious from then on :)

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Lermon

Lermon

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Don't like how it's panned out. South American team Vs South American team. They play each other all the time. And wipes two out quite quickly. Costa Rica, Greece, it would have been better had they been up against other opposition. Chance of a real dark horse, and they both play each other. But that's the way cups go, the groups weren't the best.

Re: Germany Vs USA. Bookies have lowered their price on a draw to 6/4. Normal draw price is about 9/4. So they think they are going to play for a draw.

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noikeee

noikeee

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Don't like how it's panned out. South American team Vs South American team. They play each other all the time.

And they actually face each other out next in the quarter-finals, too. So out of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay we're gonna be left with a single 1 of them for the semi-finals. I'm not a huge fan of this arrangement neither.

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PMLF

PMLF

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I think the arrangement is fine, there are 6 South American teams in this comp, they were bound to meet each other if most advanced but not all won their groups.

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Mr Wallin

Mr Wallin

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Don't like how it's panned out. South American team Vs South American team. They play each other all the time. And wipes two out quite quickly.

Not sure that matters to me tbh.

But that's the way cups go, the groups weren't the best.

Not completely sure I agree. And even if that's what you get when you don't seed the draw, luck suddenly plays a big part.

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noikeee

noikeee

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Update now that everything's confirmed:

Games leading into semi-final #1

Brazil-Chile

v

Colombia-Uruguay

France-Nigeria

v

Germany-Algeria

Games leading into semi-final #2

Netherlands-Mexico

v

Costa Rica-Greece

Argentina-Switzerland

v

Belgium-USA

Can't help but still feel first half of the draw has loads, loads more quality than the second half, and I don't believe that's entirely fair. You'd think either the Netherlands or Argentina will go to the final now (though wouldn't rule out Mexico knocking out the Netherlands, or Belgium surprising Argentina). Whereas in the first half it's far more open. I think it's between Brazil, France and Germany but Chile and Colombia have genuine quality to get into it. I think the world champion will come from the 1st half...

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PMLF

PMLF

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The champion may come from the 2nd half because they will be 'fresher' after playing relatively easier games, while the team from the 1st half might have more trouble, get less rest,, etc...

I hope it will be an Argentina vs Germany final.

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Razzler

Razzler

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People talking about Chile beating Brazil I think Colombia have a better chance

May be a bit harsh here but the last 16 isn't massively standing out in terms of match ups. It's a bit like the CL, some ropey groups and a couple of good ones ... first knockout stage can be a bit meh but generally the 1/4 finals onwards are good. Looks the same here, think 1/4s will turn out good, interesting matches but last 16 there's no real Oooooooo fixture and no, it's not Brazil/Chile

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Pukey

Pukey

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People talking about Chile beating Brazil I think Colombia have a better chance

May be a bit harsh here but the last 16 isn't massively standing out in terms of match ups. It's a bit like the CL, some ropey groups and a couple of good ones ... first knockout stage can be a bit meh but generally the 1/4 finals onwards are good. Looks the same here, think 1/4s will turn out good, interesting matches but last 16 there's no real Oooooooo fixture and no, it's not Brazil/Chile

Yeah, I agree with this. Still think there'll be good matches but the quarters should be a lot more interesting.

Could have Brazil vs Colombia, France vs Germany, Argentina vs Belgium which are all interesting and should be great games. Netherlands vs Costa Rica might actually be interesting too (assuming it's those who get through, obviously)

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