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Anyone else noticing a very strong HOME fixture BIAS?? 15.1.4


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Obviously Home advantage should be relevant but its seems a bit OTT under 15.1.4

Not really referring to my own results, look at Newcastle & Sunderland :lol:

Apart from Chelsea even the big boys are struggling to win away.

AhvQgRS.png

Conversely, its all a bit too easy at home.

l6QMBIa.png

Not a massive sample size, but a pattern is emerging.

How is it going in your game??

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I only worry about my own away form and there's nothing I wouldn't expect.

I do feel that choosing the right mentality for every single match is important, you really need to weigh up the opposition and not be cautious about being attacking if their status warrants it (a mistake I always used to make was erring on the side of caution)

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I only worry about my own away form and there's nothing I wouldn't expect.

I do feel that choosing the right mentality for every single match is important, you really need to weigh up the opposition and not be cautious about being attacking if their status warrants it (a mistake I always used to make was erring on the side of caution)

True, however, I found that sometimes a ballsy approach against much better sides can pay off. Playing a high line, pressing game can really contain attacking sides. Conceding space in front of you and waiting for a counter can be disastrous.

But it's all "sometimes", "could", "maybe"... :D

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I love it how players are so courteous, that they wait until they play you to score their first goal of the season.....

I mean some play 40 odd games before scoring against me.......

:D

EDIT: hahaha sorry this is brilliant, as I am typing this ever so tongue in cheek mock, I am playing United away in 4th round of the League Cup. The score is 5-1 to them ( i rested the whole team). I am not joking. ALl 5 goal scorers including Rooney, Januzaj and Blind all scored their 1st goal of the season. Gotta love it

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I love it how players are so courteous, that they wait until they play you to score their first goal of the season.....

I mean some play 40 odd games before scoring against me.......

:D

I'm sure other players go 40 odd games before they score against someone else too.

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Nope, have to say not seen this. My home stadiums pitch is at condition "terrible" so actually playing at home worries me as I play short, controlling, attacking football.

bwGwh6KMzq-3000x3000.png

i was more referring to how the AI teams are getting on.

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I thought the bias was there before 15.1.14 anyway?

Personally my counter attacking formation demolishes teams at home and dominates most teams away. There is more scope for draws and dropped points away for me though.

For the AI, the away form is awful, which means as long as you make your own home a fortress and snatch wins on the road the league is in the bag most days.

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Does anyone actually know how the game implements home advantage? I have always been dying to know this and have never gotten a definitive answer.

I'm pretty certain you won't get an answer but it would be interesting to know how people think this is achieved :)

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Does anyone actually know how the game implements home advantage? I have always been dying to know this and have never gotten a definitive answer.

First of all, I am pretty sure that the strategies (attacking, control, standard, ect...) are not entirely cosmetic. In my experience, some of the strategies work better than others in certain situations - large favorites/small favorites/large underdogs/small underdogs - when playing home or away or even on neutral pitches...

If this assumption is correct, then the strategies could open a form of tactical 'correctness' that will enhance the risk/reward element discussed through the years here on the forums. Attributes have values, tactical instructions have values (Mentality and Closing Down are areas I rate quite high when making tactics). So, moving around the overall values of 'correctness' shouldn't be that hard of a problem for the game coders - thus enhancing the home 'correctness' of let's say something like 25% (just a guess)...

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If anyone is interrested, I suggest the following:

Check your number of tackles in your matches compared to the other fixtures in your League. It would be beneficial if you include what type of pressing you are currently using (Close Down more, Close Down less, default...) and see what patterns are emerging...

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Wouldn't say it's a STRONG BIAS! For example, Man City finished 17-1-1 at home last season and Liverpool 16-1-2. Six teams lost 3 or less during the season.

It looks somewhat out when placed against reality. Maybe by 15-20% or so.

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I'm pretty certain you won't get an answer but it would be interesting to know how people think this is achieved :)

I'm guessing it's implemented via similar mechanisms to motivation/morale, which I've always found to be rather dubious. I think for maximum realism it should be implemented largely via referee bias.

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Does seem, anecdotally, like games away are often draws or losses and games at home are more often wins or losses, even with the same set of match statistics.

From last season's EPL, Liverpool were P19 W10 D3 L6 away versus P19 W17 D1 L1 at home. United were 8/7/4 away versus 16/2/1 at home. Chelsea had the best away record in the league at 11/5/3 versus 14/3/2 at home. The worst home records in the league were West Ham and Burnley at 5/5/9 and West Brom at 4/7/8. Away those three teams were 3/6/10 from WH, 2/5/12 for Burnley and 4/3/12 West Brom. Zero teams had more points away than at home. West Brom had 19 points at home, which was the worst total in the EPL; 19 away points would have been good for 10th in the league. Chelsea had the best away GD at 16; City had the second-best at 12. United were 3rd at 9, Liverpool at 6 in 4th. At home, United were +39, Liverpool +36, Chelsea +29 and City +18. Newcastle were 4th in home GD at +20 with a -14 away GD.

I dunno, it doesn't seem like things are too too out of whack. It's just that there seem to be fewer upsets away than there generally should be.

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It looks to me, at least in those screen shots, that it is a case of good teams win most of their games, and poor teams do not. Last season in the EPL, every team lost at least 4 games away from home, and the most games won was 10 (see here). Whilst at home Man City won 17 and lost 1. I do not really see a huge difference between the OP and reality.

An additional point to note is that, as the OP notes, this is a small sample. Teals such as Liverpool could have played several difficult away games, Chelsea could have played a lot of easier ones. The best way to see if there is an unrealistic home bias would be to check the final standings across either several leagues or several years.

FWIW, I have noticed that I play significantly better at home than I do away (it was this that saved me from relegation in my most recent season). But whether this is a case of there being an inbuilt bias, or AI teams naturally playing a more expansive attacking game against me when I am the away team I cannot really say.

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