Saving a hopeless match

[Exius]

I think this situation is familiar to every FM player - you made a good pre-match team-talk, the whole team is motivated, then the match starts and you team is underperforming badly. It doesn't matter what tactic you are playing and who is the opponent - it can be weaker, equal or bigger team. You see your players getting 6 or even less ratings, you use shouts, make tactical changes, but nothing works. First half ends, you make passionate and inspiring team-talk, your whole team is fired-up and motivated, then the second half starts and... nothing changes. It doesn't matter what changes you make in the second half - it seems the game just decided it is time for you to lose (or get a draw), so your strikers can't hit a target, your midfield can't make successfull passes and your defense make awful mistakes...

I think every FM player from time to time has such games. What can be done to save such hopeless matches and, more important, what can be done to predict and avoid such poor performance?

Of course you can tell: "Sh*t happens". It happens, and it happens IRL quite often. But when it happens in a league  match - it's not as critical as when it happens in a cup game, where every game can be the last game. Moreover, I can accept my team underperforming if I made some tactical mistakes (e.g. played with high defense and conceded from a fast counter attack), but what I can't accept - when my tactic is good, we dominate the game (despite low or average ratings) and just can't succeed due to some random factors. In such case I've found only one 100% way to save such games - re-load the game before the match if it was destroyed by awful "FM gods" and their poor random decisions. Somebody would say it's not right to reload the games, but I would argue - it's not right to lose an important match just because your whole team performs awful randomly.

It's especially interesting what tactical gurus of this forum do in such games and can at least something be done when you face a bad luck.

[herne79]

1 hour ago, Exius said:

it's not right to lose an important match just because your whole team performs awful randomly.

I think PSG might have something to say about that. 

Your tactic is just one part of the equation (albeit a significant part).  But players are not robots:- they can have bad games; they can wilt under pressure; they can be inconsistent; they may not enjoy big matches.  Even players who are consistent/handle pressure/enjoy big matches doesn't mean they always perform 100% of the time.

And then there is the opposition to consider.  They're losing from the first leg, what do you think they'd do?  Play the same as they did in the first leg (coz that ended well) or go for broke, nothing to lose?  And what happens if you pitch up and play the same as you did before even if the opposition have changed things up?

[Kazza]

Try reading this I found it invaluable in fine tuning and turning around results.

 

 

[Svenc]

Then again, take out the randomness (if it is that), and the game would stop being like Football.

It's already far less random than Football is, btw. In particular on the Level of human Management, anyway. And even the AI never underperforms the way top Teams do in Football quite ofently, where finishing "sterak" alone can hurt sides for months (even if your main Forward is called CR7). Actually, the randomness / undpredictabilty is one of the reasons I may still start a save. Short-term, much goes, Long-term, you know where you end up more often than not anyway… Like an MMO grind where you are eventually rewarded for persisting. 

 

That said, Players on this oft have some weird ideas of what "playing well" and/or dominating an Opposition is. The classic being one side having far more shots/Possession, therefore playing "well." Where does that leave counter / Deep block defending sides, for a start? Some of the game's Feedback has Always supported their views, however. The final match Reports on this series oft are at completely odds with the game's (and football's) realities.

[sporadicsmiles]

You also sometimes just have to credit the opposition, who play really well. Players never seem to want to do that. Sometimes you can do nothing wrong and lose, because the AI was better on the day. That sucks to say, because we want to know we can always win, but it is sport. These games do happen, and it is a part of life.

How to spot them? Watch for your players being complacent, and watch for big pressure matches. Then use team talks, press conferences, etc. to either motivate or take the pressure off them. That is to prevent the preventable ones. Sometimes you are just gonna play like crap.

[JeffDogg]

When a player is not good, I take him off because i find it rare that a guy with like 6,4 at half time turns it around.

And usually I switch from one striker to 2. A tactic change seems needed most of the time

[Warrenwwr]

I do a random test every once in a while, in tough games:

I take off any player by minute 60 and thereafter who had the lowest morale and replaced him with the highest morale carrying alternative. And I mean no matter the circumstance ignoring player ratings or ability.

I've won every game that I did this. It's too much work for me to do this every match though.

But it might be worth a try. I suppose a morale boost can lift a team?

[Exius]

1 hour ago, JeffDogg said:

When a player is not good, I take him off because i find it rare that a guy with like 6,4 at half time turns it around.

I see it from time to time. Just use passionate "You weren't that bad..." team-talk after the first half, get the player motivated and he can greatly improve in the second half. If he doesn't by 60th minute - I take him off.

15 minutes ago, Warrenwwr said:

I do a random test every once in a while, in tough games:

I take off any player by minute 60 and thereafter who had the lowest morale and replaced him with the highest morale carrying alternative. And I mean no matter the circumstance ignoring player ratings or ability.

I've won every game that I did this. It's too much work for me to do this every match though.

But it might be worth a try. I suppose a morale boost can lift a team?

That's very interesting. I'll give it a try. I believe the effect will be even greater if the guy with a high morale is one of tem leaders.

[Warrenwwr]

27 minutes ago, Exius said:

I see it from time to time. Just use passionate "You weren't that bad..." team-talk after the first half, get the player motivated and he can greatly improve in the second half. If he doesn't by 60th minute - I take him off.

That's very interesting. I'll give it a try. I believe the effect will be even greater if the guy with a high morale is one of tem leaders.

Exactly. Those sort of logical ideas I have definitely seen work in this version. You can't know for sure without testing But there's so many variables to a match... That jovial striker can make the difference on his day.

There are so many tactical options in this game, I barely use 1/3 at any time in any match. There's only so much you can do with the match speed on max with key highlights only!

[djpdavey]

I too am intrigued to hear from the FM ultras on this.

I've built a tactic which dominates possession and chances 90% of the time. I can tell when the game isn't going to go my way no matter what I do. I get games when I have all the luck and others when I am dominating...chance after chance but no clear cut chances... I give away stupid penalties and the AI scores worldies. I have just come to accept it now. Probably my lack of knowledge on what to do next but would love some ideas.... 

[Tom8983]

7 hours ago, Exius said:

In such case I've found only one 100% way to save such games - re-load the game before the match if it was destroyed by awful "FM gods" and their poor random decisions. Somebody would say it's not right to reload the games, but I would argue - it's not right to lose an important match just because your whole team performs awful randomly.

So you're saying both of this years Champions League semi finals should have been replayed because Barcelona And Ajax just randomly under performed?

[Exius]

2 minutes ago, Tom8983 said:

So you're saying both of this years Champions League semi finals should have been replayed because Barcelona And Ajax just randomly under performed?

In case of Barcelona it was rather psychological issue than random, coupled with ultra-cautious tactic which was changed only when the score was 4-0. In case of Ajax, they conceded on the last minute, defending for the whole second half. Well, it may be a bad luck. Anyway, what I'm talking about here is a bit different. I'm talking about the game where everything should be OK on the cards - your tatic is good, morale is high, match preparation was good, team-talk was motivating but your players under-perform on individual basis. I mean, I can be dominating the whole game, but my strikers can't score, having 20+ shots during the match, while the opposition has a single shot on target and scores (it can be a long shot, a set piece - doesn't matter, the game just decides you shouldn't score and the AI should). That's what I'm talking about. That's an awfully BAD luck. Does it happen IRL? Of course! Rarely, but it does. In FM it happens to me every 4-5th game.

[CFuller]

And what if a strong AI team randomly had an awful game that your team took full advantage of? Would you reload then? Thought not. 

The game is not programmed to screw you over whenever it feels like it. In fact, the ME isn't programmed to favour AI teams over human-managed teams. There are so many factors FM takes into account when simulating matches that there is almost always a good explanation for any result that doesn't go your team's way.

I recently saw my team lose 5-0 at home to one of the the relegation favourites. I could maybe put it down to us making an iffy start to life in a higher division after promotion. Maybe the opposition's long-ball game was killing us on the counter-attack and I didn't know how to respond (I'm no master tactician). Maybe they were far more motivated than we were. Or maybe we just had 'one of those days', which can happen to anyone, whether you're in the Champions League or Norway's second division.

[CFuller]

14 minutes ago, Exius said:

In case of Barcelona it was rather psychological issue than random, coupled with ultra-cautious tactic which was changed only when the score was 4-0. In case of Ajax, they conceded on the last minute, defending for the whole second half. Well, it may be a bad luck. Anyway, what I'm talking about here is a bit different. I'm talking about the game where everything should be OK on the cards - your tatic is good, morale is high, match preparation was good, team-talk was motivating but your players under-perform on individual basis. I mean, I can be dominating the whole game, but my strikers can't score, having 20+ shots during the match, while the opposition has a single shot on target and scores (it can be a long shot, a set piece - doesn't matter, the game just decides you shouldn't score and the AI should). That's what I'm talking about. That's an awfully BAD luck. Does it happen IRL? Of course! Rarely, but it does. In FM it happens to me every 4-5th game.

Maybe it's not a good tactic if this genuinely happens to you every 4 or 5 games. Just saying.

Imagine this. You're playing an ultra-attacking system at home against a team who've parked more buses in front of their goal than José Mourinho. You're dominating possession and creating loads of attacks - but because the opposition are defending so deep and staying so compact, you can't actually get a load of shots on target. Any shots you do have are usually either blocked by the defence, or fired wide from distance as a last resort.

After 30 or so shots, you're out of puff and the visitors sense a chance to counter. Because you've put so many men forward and have neglected the defence, the opposition attackers have all the space in the world to take advantage and hit your team with a sucker punch. 1-0 away win.

Again, I'm no expert when it comes to FM, but maybe you could exercise a little more caution in that type of situation. Don't be quite so attack-minded all the time. Draw defensive opponents out of their third a bit more instead of throwing everyone forward, thus forcing the opposition into the box and leaving your team with precious little space.

[Tom8983]

8 minutes ago, Exius said:

In case of Barcelona it was rather psychological issue than random, coupled with ultra-cautious tactic which was changed only when the score was 4-0. In case of Ajax, they conceded on the last minute, defending for the whole second half. Well, it may be a bad luck. Anyway, what I'm talking about here is a bit different. I'm talking about the game where everything should be OK on the cards - your tatic is good, morale is high, match preparation was good, team-talk was motivating but your players under-perform on individual basis. I mean, I can be dominating the whole game, but my strikers can't score, having 20+ shots during the match, while the opposition has a single shot on target and scores (it can be a long shot, a set piece - doesn't matter, the game just decides you shouldn't score and the AI should). That's what I'm talking about. That's an awfully BAD luck. Does it happen IRL? Of course! Rarely, but it does. In FM it happens to me every 4-5th game.

It's also not random in your saves, that's why barely anybody is having this problem. It's something you're doing wrong. That was exactly my point, there's other factors like psychology, your response to their more aggressive tactics, the oppositions morale and lack of pressure on them etc etc etc. You can't blame your losses on randomness but defend real life similar examples by claiming their were other factors. Again, you're doing something wrong somewhere for it to happen every time.

 

 

 

[Exius]

10 minutes ago, CFuller said:

The game is not programmed to screw you over whenever it feels like it. In fact, the ME isn't programmed to favour AI teams over human-managed teams. There are so many factors FM takes into account when simulating matches that there is almost always a good explanation for any result that doesn't go your team's way.

I don't say that the game is programmed to constantly out-perform human team. AI teams have poor days as well. I believe that there is no such thing as random or pure luck in real life football - there is just a complex of numerous major and minor factors and even the most powerfull computers can't calculate all of them, so in virtual football they are replaced with "luck". So, IRL theoretically you can valuate the major ones and do something to counter them. In the FM if it comes to random - you can't counter it in any way.

[Exius]

5 minutes ago, CFuller said:

Imagine this. You're playing an ultra-attacking system at home against a team who've parked more buses in front of their goal than José Mourinho. You're dominating possession and creating loads of attacks - but because the opposition are defending so deep and staying so compact, you can't actually get a load of shots on target. Any shots you do have are usually either blocked by the defence, or fired wide from distance as a last resort.

After 30 or so shots, you're out of puff and the visitors sense a chance to counter. Because you've put so many men forward and have neglected the defence, the opposition attackers have all the space in the world to take advantage and hit your team with a sucker punch. 1-0 away win.

Oh yes, sometimes it happens, but it's not random, it's a tactical issue and you explained it perfectly. I can accept such defeats. I'm talking about games where you can't convert clear cut chances - shooting straight to the keeper form 2 meters and so on, and the opposition converts even not half- but quater-chances.

8 minutes ago, Tom8983 said:

It's also not random in your saves, that's why barely anybody is having this problem. It's something you're doing wrong. That was exactly my point, there's other factors like psychology, your response to their more aggressive tactics, the oppositions morale and lack of pressure on them etc etc etc. You can't blame your losses on randomness but defend real life similar examples by claiming their were other factors. Again, you're doing something wrong somewhere for it to happen every time.

Well, maybe it's not random even though it looks like, mayve I'm missing something here. That's why I started this thread - to learn how people deal with such situations. 

[DementedHammer]

I'm not a master tactician. Nor am I immune to these situations. But, as I play full matches rather than highlights, a lot of the time it is obvious why my team is under performing and what needs to be done to address it. Perhaps, for example, my playmaker is being marked out of the game or the opposition is playing extraordinary narrow and congesting the space around my most creative players.

Perhaps, if things aren't going your team's way, temporarily change the match settings to watch a bit more of the match (especially keep an eye on the transitions). It may suddenly become obvious why your team is under performing. 

[Tom8983]

4 minutes ago, Exius said:

Well, maybe it's not random even though it looks like, mayve I'm missing something here. That's why I started this thread - to learn how people deal with such situations. 

Well in these kind of examples with a big first leg win, I'll often play my second string and maybe a youngster or two, and make it clear if/when asked that first team places are always up for grabs for those who perform well. I normally have 2 players for each position, one a first team player and one a rotation option, plus a few promising youngsters in the first team squad, so it's not a huge drop in quality.

I'll also play a counter attacking and/or direct tactic as I know that the opposition will be playing totally gung-ho.

That's all I do really.

[JeffDogg]

9 hours ago, Exius said:

I see it from time to time. Just use passionate "You weren't that bad..." team-talk after the first half, get the player motivated and he can greatly improve in the second half. If he doesn't by 60th minute - I take him off.

Unfortunately, I'm on Touch so the options are not numerous.

[thehig2]

12 hours ago, djpdavey said:

I too am intrigued to hear from the FM ultras on this.

I've built a tactic which dominates possession and chances 90% of the time. I can tell when the game isn't going to go my way no matter what I do. I get games when I have all the luck and others when I am dominating...chance after chance but no clear cut chances... I give away stupid penalties and the AI scores worldies. I have just come to accept it now. Probably my lack of knowledge on what to do next but would love some ideas.... 

Same with in first 10-15 minutes of a game I can normally tell it's going to go my way or not 

[JeffDogg]

26 minutes ago, thehig2 said:

Same with in first 10-15 minutes of a game I can normally tell it's going to go my way or not 

Same. I'm rarely wrong too.

[thehig2]

5 minutes ago, JeffDogg said:

Same. I'm rarely wrong too.

there is something in the air when your going to loose a game, you can smell it hahah

[Svenc]

18 hours ago, Exius said:

 Does it happen IRL? Of course! Rarely, but it does. In FM it happens to me every 4-5th game.

Having loads more shots without winning isn't bad luck. In particualrly not if you're Germany at the World Cup. :P qThe AI you are playing against encourages you to have x more "chances". 

if it's Happening this regularly your Chance Analysis is dreadful, e.g. you think you are in "contol" of a match when you aren't and don't know what to Change. Admittedly, the game doesn't do much to help you out, and too many Matches on FM appear more onesided than they are due to the AI's Focus oft being entirelly on not  conceding easily. Maybe Rashidi could help you out, as he has a) both the experience and b) seems to watch actual Football Analytics too (not to be confused with sensationalist "how did he miss that?") punditry on TV). I have a suspicious this would make the game far easier though...

 

However, seeing how quickly the AI reverts to parking the bus and limiting the Quality space in their final third at the expense of any attacking oomph (even with decent Teams), Point drops despite a "statistical" Domination, in particular on FM's stats leve, should arguably happen far more in-game than in real Football to begin with. Indeed, part of the "issue" is that the AI Defaults to Ultra defensive tactics for as soon as it considers itself an Underdog; whereas in real Football even the likes of Eibar can have a real go at Barca. Would never happen in game, even on past reelases. Speaking About Things that would never happen in-game likewise is Barca strolling to a title like in 2017/2018, because Real's combined forces of CR7+Benzema couldn't hit a cow's arse until January (and not for a lack of trying, or attempts) -- which isn't that isolated a Thing, but... Football. There is plenty luck in this game, and the saying that it would even out over the Corse of a single season is nonsense.

 

[Exius]

3 hours ago, Svenc said:

if it's Happening this regularly your Chance Analysis is dreadful, e.g. you think you are in "contol" of a match when you aren't and don't know what to Change. Admittedly, the game doesn't do much to help you out, and too many Matches on FM appear more onesided than they are due to the AI's Focus oft being entirelly on not  conceding easily. Maybe Rashidi could help you out, as he has a) both the experience and b) seems to watch actual Football Analytics too (not to be confused with sensationalist "how did he miss that?") punditry on TV). I have a suspicious this would make the game far easier though...

Thank you, I'll watch the video! It should be interesting and useful, as all Rashidi videos.

But I think you got me wrong. I'm not complaining about getting tons of long shots outside the box, 90% of which are blocked as it happens when you dominate possession and AI team defends very narrow and deep. That's a tactical issue and it can be dealt with. I mean clear cut chances, inside the box, close range shots, one-on-ones and so on - really good chances which should be converted in goals. Well, maybe it's not every 5th game, but quite often I see the following pattern - If you spoil a couple of clear cut chances (let's say, one-on-ones), it's almost a guarantee you'll lose in the match or at least get a draw - it's a sign that the game won't let you get a win. Like thehig2 said in a post earlier: "there is something in the air when your going to loose a game"

[wattzy]

On 25/07/2019 at 08:57, thehig2 said:

Same with in first 10-15 minutes of a game I can normally tell it's going to go my way or not 

So, are you trying to say that if you're losing or playing poorly within the first 10-15 minutes you always go on to lose? There's one of two things going on here - you're either not reading what's happening in the game and so aren't reacting to the opposition quickly enough, or you're being selective in the games you remember. I'm sure you've at least once started a game poorly and gone on to win, or have you never managed that? 

[thehig2]

59 minutes ago, wattzy said:

So, are you trying to say that if you're losing or playing poorly within the first 10-15 minutes you always go on to lose? There's one of two things going on here - you're either not reading what's happening in the game and so aren't reacting to the opposition quickly enough, or you're being selective in the games you remember. I'm sure you've at least once started a game poorly and gone on to win, or have you never managed that? 

Many a game you can tell its not going to go your way yeah, I've turned around games before but you can tell in the first few minutes of a game your in for a tough time.

 

 

[MikeyN]

I have this the other way around

First season in the premier league with the mighty Wrexham and frankly expected to get battered.

We play a defensive counter attack with only the advanced forward on attack and baring a 5-0 loss to Man City have 35 points from 19 games.

only really dominated a couple of of games.  

[wattzy]

On 26/07/2019 at 14:31, thehig2 said:

Many a game you can tell its not going to go your way yeah, I've turned around games before but you can tell in the first few minutes of a game your in for a tough time.

 

 

How exactly is that an issue? Surely that's just a case of the other team starting well or you starting poorly rather than the game deciding you're going to lose that game. The theme of this thread appears to be that the outcome of the game is decided before a ball is kicked when it simply isn't the case. Sometimes you might not play well, it's up to the manager to make changes to rectify it.

[Exius]

4 hours ago, wattzy said:

The theme of this thread appears to be that the outcome of the game is decided before a ball is kicked when it simply isn't the case.

Well, I don't say it's decided ahead of the match, but I believe some games tend to be lost whatever you do. For example, I played against a much weaker side, I dominated possession, I had decent number of shots, several clear cut chances, but my players either missed the target from a couple of meters or shot straight into the keeper. I lost due to a single counter-attack. I reloaded that match and used a skin with instant result button. 7 games of 10 I lost it anyway, despite dominating possession and having more shots in all of them, no matter what tactic variations I used. There were red cards, missed penalties - it seemed the game used any means necessary to see me lost, since it couldn't beat me tactically. In a couple of games I got a draw. And only 1 match out of that 10 I won. And then I noticed that the opposition had a streak of 4 straight home wins despite overall poor form. And that game was their home game. So the game decided that match should probably be their 5th home win. It wasn't pre-decided, but the probability of their win was much higher than it would be in any other circumstances.

[Svenc]

On ‎29‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 22:19, Exius said:

Well, I don't say it's decided ahead of the match, but I believe some games tend to be lost whatever you do. For example, I played against a much weaker side, I dominated possession, I had decent number of shots, several clear cut chances, but my players either missed the target from a couple of meters or shot straight into the keeper. I lost due to a single counter-attack. I reloaded that match and used a skin with instant result button. 7 games of 10 I lost it anyway, despite dominating possession and having more shots in all of them, no matter what tactic variations I used. There were red cards, missed penalties - it seemed the game used any means necessary to see me lost, since it couldn't beat me tactically. In a couple of games I got a draw. And only 1 match out of that 10 I won. And then I noticed that the opposition had a streak of 4 straight home wins despite overall poor form. And that game was their home game. So the game decided that match should probably be their 5th home win. It wasn't pre-decided, but the probability of their win was much higher than it would be in any other circumstances.

 

I can guarantee you that the better Players of this would not experience this. At all. That's not a one-off match after all, that's multiple attempts. This either relates to a) changes and b) being able to recognize what actually superior chances are (from playing and watching experience)-- and if they don't come to pass, changing things. IIRC back in the day there was a thread demonstrating better or worse chances to score -- ignored in favor of theories like yours, that sometimes the game just settles you to lose. To a lesser extent, this can also be about recognizing a Forward snatching at his chances on the day (Body language Feedback...) and subbing him. In either case, it's always About doing something, rather than giving in. This has been argued since the dawn of FM. The pure simple data FM offers simply has never been enough. Plus, you will have tons more shots every other match anyway, as the AI lets you have them by ist Ultra defensive Burnley like low block parking bus Frustration Approach (only that it isn't merely Burnley doing this…).

Of course, bad luck is supposed to be a part of the game. If the game were "accurate", there would be very few chances in there, even the better ones, where the Forward would have the Edge over the defense, or be in an equal Position to score/convert. Imagine this as a dice roll, if you will. How Long can you go flipping a coin (a fifty fifty chance) and seeing Nothing but heads? The majority of your chances, even "clear cut" will be far worse than this -- or SI would simulate a different Sports entirelly. Therefore, if Point Drops against an actual run of Play (not to be confused with shot/Possession Domination) weren't part of the game, it were more predictable than it already is. In an Ultra low scoring Sports as Football, match results and Performances sometimes aren't a match for weeks, even months. Raw results are far more random than many give them credit for. And on any given Weekend, almost anything should be possible -- in particular in competitive Football.