Are strikers nerfed?

[wazzaflow10]

I have to get this off my chest...

I've never seen so many shots go straight to the keeper from point blank range. They wander offsides on freekicks from the defensive half repeatedly.  And can't head the ball towards goal to save their life. I just don't understand what I'm supposed to do anymore in the game. 

[Maldini's Heir]

40 minutes ago, wazzaflow10 said:

I have to get this off my chest...

I've never seen so many shots go straight to the keeper from point blank range. They wander offsides on freekicks from the defensive half repeatedly.  And can't head the ball towards goal to save their life. I just don't understand what I'm supposed to do anymore in the game. 

Same.

I cannot keep creating and missing more chances than my opponent. 

[russell9]

I feel like the strikers or any attacking players finishing of chances is nerfed to about 10~20% success rate. My team often created more than 10+ clear cut chances per match but the it always ended with 1, 2 or zero goals.

[Grifty]

46 minutes ago, russell9 said:

I feel like the strikers or any attacking players finishing of chances is nerfed to about 10~20% success rate. My team often created more than 10+ clear cut chances per match but the it always ended with 1, 2 or zero goals.

How many of those 10+ clear cut chances do you expect your team to score?

[jsx7ste]

Something needs looking at because the 1v1 success rate is about 10%. If they do increase it however, they will need to reduce number of 1v1s per game and definitely do something about the ease at which a ball can be sent over the top of a high line. Oppositions who are getting heavily pressured always get a couple of 1v1 from sending a long ball right over the top of the defence.  How often in top flight football especially but at most levels, does a player successfully play a 40-50 yard ball over everyone that sits up perfectly for the striker to have a 1v1 from inside the 18 yard box?

[TsuMirren]

2 hours ago, jsx7ste said:

Something needs looking at because the 1v1 success rate is about 10%. If they do increase it however, they will need to reduce number of 1v1s per game and definitely do something about the ease at which a ball can be sent over the top of a high line. Oppositions who are getting heavily pressured always get a couple of 1v1 from sending a long ball right over the top of the defence.  How often in top flight football especially but at most levels, does a player successfully play a 40-50 yard ball over everyone that sits up perfectly for the striker to have a 1v1 from inside the 18 yard box?

Definitely. 

Also getting a bit bored of 27 shots, 5 on target and only scoring 1. 5 on target from 27, when some of the shots are being blasted past from 6 yards out.

[Piperita]

I am far more concerned about my IWa perfectly running diagonally to the post, cutting inside and then shooting closer to the corner flag than the goal.

In my fifth year in Berlin, Selke finally got it going, finding a nice mix between the misses (parried and missed shots) and the various ways of scoring (second chances, rounding, lobbing, power, placing, luck) but that might have come from far better support and well-increased mentals. Or lower defensive lines against me, resulting in him having more energy/less time to overthink at his shots.

But I agree that if he scored all sitters, there would have been utter madness! His scorelines in the first seasons were 26, 24, 27 and 30; after he began scoring a lot more his next season was a 44 and he shot none of my 12 penalties and still had some infuriating misses! 

(and I am still unsure whether this is due to bad strikers/amazing goalies or just the visualisation of what the game calculates)

 

[Svenc]

48 minutes ago, Piperita said:

But I agree that if he scored all sitters, there would have been utter madness! His scorelines in the first seasons were 26, 24, 27 and 30; after he began scoring a lot more his next season was a 44 and he shot none of my 12 penalties and still had some infuriating misses! 

 

In isolation this sounds like what Cavani's been acused off at PSG -- if only he would score more he would have destroyed the league rather than "just" scoring 35. Which isn't football reality, as even the best miss more than they score. Maybe they should stop trying with their feet and using their Hands, funny guys. (Hence some of the slight disappointment when Neymar arrived and just couldn't better his averages -- Cavani is actually a competent finisher, it was the frequency of his chances during his best seasons that produced unrealistic expectations as to how many should be actually scored off them. I think outside of Messi or CR7, Suarez and Cavani in 2016, no other Forward had produced a Season worthy of xG 35+ in the last couple years in one of the top leagues. )

Edited January 5, 2020 by Svenc

[3runhomer]

Have you noticed that strikers also can’t score penalty shots? They shoot straight at the keeper. Other players still easily score penalties so I took my strikers out of the list. I suppose this is related to the 1v1 bug. 

[MrPompey]

4 hours ago, jsx7ste said:

Something needs looking at because the 1v1 success rate is about 10%. If they do increase it however, they will need to reduce number of 1v1s per game and definitely do something about the ease at which a ball can be sent over the top of a high line. Oppositions who are getting heavily pressured always get a couple of 1v1 from sending a long ball right over the top of the defence.  How often in top flight football especially but at most levels, does a player successfully play a 40-50 yard ball over everyone that sits up perfectly for the striker to have a 1v1 from inside the 18 yard box?

How do your FM findings compare to real life stats? That will be the key if trying to prove what happens in FM doesnt match real life

[Toshef]

6 minutes ago, MrPompey said:

How do your FM findings compare to real life stats? That will be the key if trying to prove what happens in FM doesnt match real life

I put some statistics in feedback 

For example right now in EPL from 20 games there are 6 players above 10 goals I believe.
In my safe in La Liga we are at 28th game and there are only 3 players above 10 goals

IN seria A there are 4 players above 10 goals 

In EPL 4 

 

Also I just checked for example a Top heavy league as Portugal where usually stirkers score 30 goals +. Last season Top Scorer was with 13 goals and the season before 14 goals 

Golden Ball in my game was won with Raphael Leo who scored 21 goals

 

In 6th season now in my Game 28 games in Man Utd have goal differcen +50. The most baffling stats is that they have conceded 3 goals only for the season but they have 6 draws 0:0 and lead me only by 3 points. 

[Svenc]

6 hours ago, MrPompey said:

How do your FM findings compare to real life stats? That will be the key if trying to prove what happens in FM doesnt match real life

Speaking of which, some 1vs1 appear affected more, some less. I had recorded some that were converted at 50/50 ratios longer term. I personally have no issues with those taken at tougher angles being not regularly converted. There may be other ones though.  Plus yeah their frequency….

Going with Cavani above (see my post). Unfortunately the game does not collect all the stats like that. But in the 2016/2017 Season when he scored 35 Goals, he had an average of 4.30 shots per match. https://understat.com/player/3294 Assuming all of them would have been "Buggy" 1vs1s, the xG would have been in the 50 range. If he had three 1vs1 per match,  going by the average Rating for a 1vs1 of 0.3xish, that wouldn't have been higher an xG than his actual xG was (around 35ish). As can be seen, most Forwards more or less finish where their xG suggests, outside a couple excpections (Messi et all -- naturally creating these chances in the first place is also a genuine skill).

 

edit: Whenever comparing real life stats to FM the Competition has to be set to full Detail as the quick sim apparently hasn't been updated in ages (and just churns out results rather than playing Matches out)

Edited January 5, 2020 by Svenc

[Petros7]

All this talk about statistics does not hide the fact that the ME is way behind logic and it makes it feel like the whole purpose of the game is to satisfy the statistics. It feels manipulated to prove them!

I've played this game since the early 90s and with FM20 and the way it is it makes me long for the commentary-only ME which left all to the imagination, because this ME is not just hurting my imagination it's messing with my eyes (and I already wear glasses).

I understand how difficult it is to have a 3D ME and I appreciate the effort been made and so I will continue to support this company. Nothing will ever change my love for this game and what this company has achieved.

So, patience it is! Good luck!

[Svenc]

8 hours ago, Petros7 said:

All this talk about statistics does not hide the fact that the ME is way behind logic and it makes it feel like the whole purpose of the game is to satisfy the statistics. It feels manipulated to prove them!

Coding a kick by kick match engine purely by data is impossible anyway and would be foolish. However, informing the balancing by looking at data/research is paramount and keeps things within the realms of football rather than funny bizarro world (CBs scoring 20+ Goals between them a la FM 10/11/12, and so on). Modeling chances to be realistic for instance is probably the single most important thing in terms of data, in particular considering how low scoring a sports this is. All the tactics developed up to this point originate here.

Droping deep to soak up shots whilst long shots as well as set pieces are overpowered = suicide, and so on. An ideal ME would reward all styles of play, depending on context such as players available and opposition. However, that can only really happen when the conversion of things is actually at least somewhat realistic rather than a complete fantasy. At least if the ME is actually meant to be a tactical simulation, that is.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Svenc

[Tetsuro P12]

You be the judge:

[Twitch.Wessek]

From my experience so far, strikers aren't nerfed. It's the tactics that have become more complicated. Unlike in FM'19, FM'20 won't let you run one single tactic and build your gameplay around it. You'll need at least two, and they'll have to be really fine-tuned to your needs.

Check one of my guys out:



92 matches, 81 goals. And he's not even thaaaaat good. xD

However, please note that the Brazilian League is considerably easier than EU leagues. I haven't been able to get results as good as those in England, Italy or Spain (yet).

[Tetsuro P12]

13 minutes ago, Twitch.Wessek said:

From my experience so far, strikers aren't nerfed. It's the tactics that have become more complicated. Unlike in FM'19, FM'20 won't let you run one single tactic and build your gameplay around it. You'll need at least two, and they'll have to be really fine-tuned to your needs.

Check one of my guys out:



92 matches, 81 goals. And he's not even thaaaaat good. xD

However, please note that the Brazilian League is considerably easier than EU leagues. I haven't been able to get results as good as those in England, Italy or Spain (yet).

It looks weak for your team. Eventually strikers need to be really good to make a difference.

[Twitch.Wessek]

3 minutes ago, Tetsuro P12 said:

It looks weak for your team. Eventually strikers need to be really good to make a difference.

Oh, he's in Bayer now, but just got transferred from my team (after complaining enough about it). He got top goalscorer in Brazil for two seasons in a row, and the next guy in that save is well on-course. xD

[Mitchutd]

Currently in the Premier League: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/top-scorers

Vardy 29 Shots On Target 17 Goals 58%

Ings 21 Shots On Target 13 Goals 62%

Aubameyang 21 Shots On Target 13 Goals 62%

The top 3 strikers in the league score on average 60% of their shots on target.

My current EPL seasons (2032/33):

Gatter 73 Shots On Target 30 Goals 41%

Lebrun 86 Shots On Target 26 Goals 30%

Tau 65 Shots On Target 18 Goals 28%

The top 3 strikers in the league score on average 33% of their shots on target.

 

So I'd agree it definitely seems that the strikers on FM are far less likely to score than their real world cousins.

Interestingly the numbers of shots on target generated are far greater in real life.

FM 32/33 = Top 3 strikers average 2.765 shots on target per game.

Real World = Top 3 strikers average 1.164 shots on target per game.

 

So I guess it's a question of balancing. Either FM is creating too many chances, or it's lowered the scoring chance so we don't have strikers generating 70 goal seasons.

 

For me the total goals overall isn't an issue.... just the journey there is a little skewed.

[callpress]

I don't think the problem is with strikers themselves, more to do with the managers. Especially when teams are perceived as being the same level or slightly better, AI managers are much more likely to take a conservative approach, leading to their teams scoring less goals overall. I've played against Liverpool and seen them line up with a back 5, a defensive midfielder, and no attacking midfielders.

[Toshevbgg]

To destroy conservative AI myth by my opponent

Stoke 0:1 Liverpool 9/6 (shots totals/on target) 15/9 with 3CCS

City 1:0 Chelsea 15/8 (3ccs) 15/2 (2ccs)

Watford 1:1 Southampton 20/9 3CCS 13/6 2ccs

Bolton 2:1 20/16 against 18/6

Brighton 1:0 Man City 9/3 0 CCS against 26/16 5 CCS !!!!!

I will put some statistic from current champions United in their 0:0 and some 1:0 games

United 0:0 Chelsea 14/8 (4CCS) against 9/6 2 CCS

United 2:1Watford 35/11 (3ccs) against 6:3

Swansea 1:0 United 6/2 against 15/6

Man United 0:1 West Ham 20/9 4 CCS against 4/1

Man United 1:0 Stoke 22/8 4 CCS against 7/2

 

Some Barca Examples

Barcelona 1:1 Valencia 20/10 5 CCS against 9/4 2 CCS

Barcelona 1:0 Arsenal (arsenal knocked them from CL 1/4 final ) 28/8 4 ccs against 4/4 2 ccs

Betis - Barcelona 0:2 8/2 2CCS against 35/9 6CCS 

 

Last but not least lets take a look at Zebre/Juventus last seasoon they had 10 1:1 draws lets examine some of them

Juve - Parma 1:1 16/8 4ccs 5/1 

Juve - cagliari 1:1 16/6 4 ccs against 5:3

Spal 1:1 Juve 9/4 against 14/4 (4 CCS)

Juve 1;1 Milan 9/2 3ccs against 16/9 3 ccs

Genoa 1:1 9/2 2 ccs against 13/6 3 ccs

Juve 2:2 Hoffenhaim (knocked out euro league ) 22/10 4 ccs against 5-2 ( 1ccs) First game 2:0 for hoffrnhaim 18/4 with 2 ccs against 16/5 with 2 ccs

 

I mean everyody can examine the AI. You will see they have amazing number of shots. MOst games finish with 30 shots from both sides this is TOO MUCH. In past games if you get 15 shots against a team that meant you destroy them

I think before FM20 maybe once or twice i went over 30 shots per game and those were against amateur . Now I hit 25+ non stop...  

Please dont be blind about the problem. Way too much chance creations and far less goals for them.  
dont you you are tactic guru that u got ur team to do 20 shots. Every team does it.. Sometimes I have 70 possesion and the computer makes 10 shots in the space of 3 minutes . Lob balls/rebounds multiple GK saves...

P.S Two teams to combine 40 shots on target is extremely rare occurance. Such game will be celebrated as something extradionaire . In real Life Barcelona Average 12 shots per game with 3/4 on target

Look how City lost above against Brighton thats 30 shots with 16 on targets 5 ccs and they could not score a goal. In 2 premier league games they have shot 50 times against opponents with 26 SHOTS ON TARGET...

[Toshevbgg]

3 hours ago, callpress said:

I don't think the problem is with strikers themselves, more to do with the managers. Especially when teams are perceived as being the same level or slightly better, AI managers are much more likely to take a conservative approach, leading to their teams scoring less goals overall. I've played against Liverpool and seen them line up with a back 5, a defensive midfielder, and no attacking midfielders.

Go check their games, bro especially when they won by one goal or draw. You will see AI does not play conservative. This is simply not true.  They average 15/20 shots minimum per goal with 7/8 on target

I am 2 games in and Man City have shot 50 times on goal in my save with 24/25 on target and scored two goals.

You can see above examples numerous games with 40 shots from both sides 1/2 goals in total. You can check yourself just examine Barcelona/United/City 1:1 2:1 games 2:0. You will probaly see gazilion attempts with 4/5 ccs per goal.

Strikers are awful and so are wingers this is saved for our managed teams because we abuse the game. Perfect team talk/keep same players stay same club. Groom young players I mean my team is perfect I have maxed astmosphere/cohenesion/respect and I still barerly win 1:0 2:1 most of the games

My best players shot 300 times last season to score 20 goals.  (He doesnt have shoot often but he is SS and very good). I mean he alone averaged almost same shots on goal as Barcelona in real life. 
 

This is England Shots on Goal in the World Cup

1st game 36/15 won 3:0 against Uzbekistan

2nd game 42/12 won 3:0 against Mali 8 clean cut chances in this game my player Attempted 13 shots DID NOT SCORE

3rd game 30/15 won 3:1 against Paraguay

4th Game 30:12 won 3:1

 

I mean do you think this is conservative? I mean its over the top 140 shots on goal in 4 games .Thats what Barcelona does in 10 and england scored only 12 from those

[Skimmer112]

Ummm...no, I don't think they are nerfed. 

[thehig2]

Strikers themselves arnt nerfed, but one on one's are missed way to much by who ever gets through on goal.

My strikers score goals feom set pieces and long shots more than one on ones.

[eye-switcher]

Bortom line is that this is not a very good simulator of football on the pitch in its current stare 

[TsuMirren]

On 15/01/2020 at 15:43, eye-switcher said:

Bortom line is that this is not a very good simulator of football on the pitch in its current stare 

Every match now just seams to be a battle of the long balls. You ask wingers to stay wide, they cut inside. You ask midfielders to take more risks, they just play long and long and long and long. You ask wingers to cross more often, not once do they get wide and knock a ball in.

Just awful!

[JordanMilly]

3 hours ago, TsuMirren said:

Every match now just seams to be a battle of the long balls. You ask wingers to stay wide, they cut inside. You ask midfielders to take more risks, they just play long and long and long and long. You ask wingers to cross more often, not once do they get wide and knock a ball in.

Just awful!

You might want to try out the public beta that's out, that has a number of ME changes.