Am I Crazy, or does Potential of Youth Intake Players Sometimes Grow While they are in Reserves?

[splishysplash123]

In FM20, unless I'm somehow conflating them with very similarly named players I'd forgotten, I had two players who were shown to be 3-star potential during their intake, but during the next offseason, when determining who to send on loan, to my surprise they had grown to be 4 and 4.5 star potential, respectively.  My team had gotten better in the meantime, so it's not that - is it just imperfect scouting before they're actually on the team or something?  I know current rating fluctuates with performance, but it seems odd for potential rating to fluctuate like that.  

[HUNT3R]

Star ratings are the opinion of your staff, so they can (and likely will) change over time. If we're talking about a youth intake, we're talking about 15/16 year old players who are still very raw talents and haven't kicked a ball in professional football yet. It's very difficult to judge a player's potential that early. As they develop over time, staff opinions will change. 

[nully29]

If you set an advice on players development, you would frequently get something like 

 

Potential increase. Now player X is considered future Championship winger. Previously thought to be only League One winger.

[zZzZzZzZzZzZzZz]

Yes, even staff with 20 judging potential ability will misjudge potential, especially with players as young as those in your youth intake. 

If you ever cheat and look at your youth intake with the in-game editor you'll notice that it is rarely the players that your staff rate the highest that have the highest potential ability. 

[hehehemann]

18 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

Star ratings are the opinion of your staff, so they can (and likely will) change over time. If we're talking about a youth intake, we're talking about 15/16 year old players who are still very raw talents and haven't kicked a ball in professional football yet. It's very difficult to judge a player's potential that early. As they develop over time, staff opinions will change. 

 

10 hours ago, zZzZzZzZzZzZzZz said:

Yes, even staff with 20 judging potential ability will misjudge potential, especially with players as young as those in your youth intake. 

If you ever cheat and look at your youth intake with the in-game editor you'll notice that it is rarely the players that your staff rate the highest that have the highest potential ability. 

 

That is good is know! It makes the youth development side of the game feel so much better to dabble with.. Not knowing who could be a surprise star adds more to the game. Now I want to hold on to more of them instead of just going by staff recommended ratings. I'll value attributes now and personality more when deciding who stays and who goes.

[splishysplash123]

With that in mind, should I just sign all of my youth intake?  I usually sign those 3-star and above, plus those explicitly singled out as having special personalities or being influenced.  

[rsihn]

On 08/05/2021 at 13:04, splishysplash123 said:

With that in mind, should I just sign all of my youth intake?  I usually sign those 3-star and above, plus those explicitly singled out as having special personalities or being influenced.  

I do.  It costs very little to release them 6 months later and some of them can surprise you, as has mentioned.   I put a very high priority on the players with good personalities who list our club as their favored club as they will rise very quickly to the top of their squad hierarchy as team leaders.  Even with a low potential, these players are very valuable in long term squad building for my reserves as they will eventually be the mentors for my next generations of players.  

[lfds89]

On 08/05/2021 at 19:04, splishysplash123 said:

With that in mind, should I just sign all of my youth intake?  I usually sign those 3-star and above, plus those explicitly singled out as having special personalities or being influenced.  

Depends on your finances. If you have room, why not? If not, choose wisely. If you have someone with decent judging abilities, a 2 star potential won't turn into a 4 or 5 star certainly. I usually only keep players below 3 stars if they have a good personality or something I can use to improve the youth team (usually determination, will probably accept high work rate and teamwork)