Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment

[shaunvamos]

2032 Youth Intake

 

 

 

Shaun Kelly 10A*  -  Christian Unsworth 10B  -  Duncan Russell 10C

 

 

 

Three promising players  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

March 2032

 

 

 

 

 

We beat Celtic and Rangers in the different competitions, and if we had beaten Aberdeen we would've gone top. But Celtic are really feeling the pressure now. 

 

 

 

 

 

I have no idea how we got past Lazio so convincingly in Rome, but we're through to the last 8 again. Lyon are probably too strong, while Celtic attempt to exact revenge on Roma for knocking Rangers out, but also to rub it in that they are the superior club should they win.

 

 

 

 

 

Our first youth product included in the NxGn  

[shaunvamos]

2 hours ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Sir, I cannot tell you how much enjoyment I've had catching up with this thread over the last few days. It is simply sublime and I have loved every post of it!

Stenhousemuir certainly have been an interesting team - and going well so far this season, hopefully with the title still within grasp!

 

Thanks so much  We're really pushing for the title this year!

[shaunvamos]

April 2032

 

 

 

 

 

Narrowly edged out by Lyon in the Europa League, and Celtic blew a 4-2 lead to also bow out in some cold comfort for Rangers fans. Meanwhile we've jumped Celtic in the league and now lead by 3 points with 4 games to go (including a likely title decider against Celtic at home) and we have our first ever Scottish Cup final to look forward to as well.

Edited July 14, 2022 by shaunvamos

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lost the cup final, but Scottish champions  As a result I will now take over the Scottish national team after their 2032 Euro campaign, and experiment a new selection method based on actual player performance rather than the attribute formula.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Christopher Wear  -  Chinedu Danladi  -  Graeme Gebbie

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[Pompeyboyz]

I told you that 1 season missing Europe would help 

Now just to make Stennie the Champions of Europe.....good luck with that one 

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Great stuff - Europa went well and the first title too. Hopefully you can reinvest the cash nicely since that's quite the pot of gold you're now sitting on!

[zethani]

Aaaaand you have cracked 80 overall again.

I call Champions League glory in the next couple of seasons.

[shaunvamos]

2032 Preseason

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

A  big loss as starting keeper Warner departs for the Premier League, but at least we made 3.5m profit on him. 

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

 

 

Three loans, and three permanent deals, thanks to our boosted transfer budget. Two of the loans are extended from last season, which is good for that tactical familiarity.

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

 

 

 

 

Central Defender

 

 

 

 

 

Left Wing Back

 

 

 

 

 

Defensive Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

Central Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comfortable

 

 

 

 

 

Still predicted 5th as we prepare to defend our title. Scotland now have 3 Champions League spots, so that's the goal.

[shaunvamos]

4 hours ago, Pompeyboyz said:

I told you that 1 season missing Europe would help 

Now just to make Stennie the Champions of Europe.....good luck with that one 

 

Whatever it was, it worked 

 

 

2 hours ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Great stuff - Europa went well and the first title too. Hopefully you can reinvest the cash nicely since that's quite the pot of gold you're now sitting on!

Thanks! The added cash will help bringing in those better players for sure! Not to mention facility upgrades...

 

1 hour ago, zethani said:

Aaaaand you have cracked 80 overall again.

I call Champions League glory in the next couple of seasons.

 

Our starting XI may be over 80, but we still have a severe lack of depth as we wait for the academy players to fill the gaps  

[shaunvamos]

August 2032

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

We sell starting RWB to Hibernian on deadline day, meaning we had to scramble to find a replacement. Here he is:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had a really strong start and then it got a little weird.

 

 

 

 

 

Being a 1st seed worked wonders for us in this draw, as only Atletico should comfortably beat us.

[shaunvamos]

September 2032

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We're killing it in the league, but a little disappointing in the Champions League against Utrecht. We did have a depleted team, but still.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

I was a bit worried by this experimental methodology when the first squad I called up had 12 uncapped players out of the 23, but we navigated the fixtures pretty easily.

[Whalix]

Couldn't agree more with what @FiftyBeforeThirty said on the previous page. By far my favorite thread to follow on the forums, and this Scottish version has been the most interesting edition yet as it's the closest to home for me and has many similar challenges that I face in the sort of saves I usually play. 

Incredibly impressive to see two of your players taking the first and second places in the top 50 wonderkids list. Do you use any particular method to help your players reach their potential as they have been? Some say game time is most important, others say good performance ratings, and others say training with good coaches is most important until 18 - so I'm just curious to see what your chosen method is given your success.

Secondly, when it comes to signing players - how do you start? I assume you export a list of potential signings from looking through the tabs on your excel document, but how do you find these lists? For example, do you wait for your scouts to find a sufficient number of wing-backs for example and then export it, or do you manually search for wing-backs yourself to create a shortlist?

Keep up the great and entertaining work!

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Great start, even if the CL was a little underwhelming against Utrecht - solid showing against Atletico to counteract that. Great start in the group with Scotland, definitely winnable would you say?

[shaunvamos]

October 2032

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have absolutely stormed ahead in the league, despite having to rest and rotate a fair bit, and we enter the second half of the CL groups in an ideal position.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

We were strong, but didn't do enough to get the wins here. A win in Bosnia is crucial here.

[shaunvamos]

9 hours ago, Whalix said:

Couldn't agree more with what @FiftyBeforeThirty said on the previous page. By far my favorite thread to follow on the forums, and this Scottish version has been the most interesting edition yet as it's the closest to home for me and has many similar challenges that I face in the sort of saves I usually play. 

Incredibly impressive to see two of your players taking the first and second places in the top 50 wonderkids list. Do you use any particular method to help your players reach their potential as they have been? Some say game time is most important, others say good performance ratings, and others say training with good coaches is most important until 18 - so I'm just curious to see what your chosen method is given your success.

Secondly, when it comes to signing players - how do you start? I assume you export a list of potential signings from looking through the tabs on your excel document, but how do you find these lists? For example, do you wait for your scouts to find a sufficient number of wing-backs for example and then export it, or do you manually search for wing-backs yourself to create a shortlist?

Keep up the great and entertaining work!

 

Thanks for the kind words

In terms of helping my players reach their potential, I'm not sure what I do really. I just make sure they get game time, recruit the best coaches I can find and let them do the rest. My role is essentially recruit and select the best players possible, and then let the more experienced coaches strut their stuff. I keep the academy players within the club until they turn 18, then if they aren't good enough to make the match squad on a regular basis I've started to look to loan them out. Keeping them until 18 means it's paramount you upgrade your training facilities to help them develop quicker so they can go out and make an impact on loan.

When it comes to signing players, I find every player available who has an interest in joining us on transfer or loan, regardless of position. I export that to the Excel spreadsheet, then recruit the players according to positional need. I allocate an equal portion of the budget to all 11 positions under the assumption I will be replacing everyone in the first team. I then begin recruiting players in my team's strongest position first, therefore allocating more money down the line for weaker positions (ideally bringing in stronger players). For example, at the moment my strongest position is DLP at DM. If there is a player available who is rated higher than my current starter, I make a move for him. If his wage or transfer demands exceed my allocated budget for him, however, I move onto the next best player and repeat the process. If I exhaust all of my options in DLP and the next best player would NOT be better than my current starter, I move to the next strongest position, and re-allocate the remaining funds. So for example, if I had a transfer budget of 1.1m that would give me 100k max to spend per player, but with the DLP position being unable to upgrade that 1.1m turns to 110k for the remaining 10 players. The same goes if I do find a DLP for less than 100k (for example, let's say I offered 50k for someone). That leaves 1.05m in the budget, and 105k for the remaining 10. 

 

I hope that makes sense!

[shaunvamos]

1 hour ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Great start, even if the CL was a little underwhelming against Utrecht - solid showing against Atletico to counteract that. Great start in the group with Scotland, definitely winnable would you say?

Definitely winnable, but Bosnia are right there with us!

[shaunvamos]

November 2032

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A very frustrating month, as a heavily rotated side lost to St Johnstone, and then silly scheduling meant half my rested team were ineligible for the Utrecht game. It's probably my oversight, but we were FM'd hard anyway. We need a point over Madrid to qualify, but at this stage I wouldn't be too disappointed to drop into the Europa League.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know what Slovakia's problem is, but we're back up to the Euro League A  

[shaunvamos]

December 2032

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A busy month, but an unbeaten one. We hold a 7 point gap over Celtic and 11 over Rangers. Zagreb also worked miracles and drew with Utrecht, sending us through to the knockout stages.

 

 

 

 

 

This is where it ends.

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

January 2033

 

 

 

 

 

What a January! The title appears to be ours to lose.

[shaunvamos]

February 2033

 

 

 

 

 

The loss to United is very disappointing, we had two men sent off after 30 minutes and it was all downhill from there.

[shaunvamos]

2033 Youth Intake

 

 

 

Scott Brass 11A  -  Nick Murray 11B  -  Andrew Handling 11C

 

 

 

Three more promising prospects  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

March 2033

 

 

 

 

 

United predictably smash us at Old Trafford, but we get two big victories of our own in the league, as the gap extends to 12.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

Two contrasting results here, but I think 2nd is the aim.

 

 

 

 

 

Cool to see the top three players in the NxGn are playing in Scotland, with Sinclair on loan from Chelsea and having Scottish nationality. I don't think we'll be able to turn him though. Also worth mentioning is our home grown player ranked #46, who is attracting interest from Arsenal and Liverpool.

[shaunvamos]

April 2033

 

 

 

 

 

A point in our next game at home to Celtic seals the title.

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Fantastic work as ever, unfortunate to draw United but gave you the run in the league that has all but sealed the title! Great job!

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We end the season on a sour note, but the league title is ours for the second straight year  

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Christopher Wear  -  Kevin Graves  -  Kyle Pearson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[Punch]

Congratulations on an awesome season.

[zethani]

12 points over Celtic is even more impressive than the second league title in a row.

Bravo.

[shaunvamos]

2033 Preseason

 

 

 

Every player we signed permanently has been a player that has played for us before: Caraballo on loan from Wolves in 2031, Hughes who left for 1.1m last year, and we collect a next sale percentage from it and Anglin who also left last season for a similar price. Garner and Ike return for their 3rd and 2nd loan spells respectively, and Mpenza is the only new face here.

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

 

 

 

 

Central Defender

 

 

 

 

 

Wing Backs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defensive Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

Central Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect preseason, with a win against Liverpool  Probably doesn't mean much, but still.

 

 

 

 

 

After last season's dominance it's hard to expect anything but a third straight title.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent across both Romanian fixtures, and 2nd place seems a near certainty after that.

Edited July 16, 2022 by shaunvamos

[shaunvamos]

 

On 15/07/2022 at 20:32, Punch said:

Congratulations on an awesome season.

 

On 15/07/2022 at 20:38, zethani said:

12 points over Celtic is even more impressive than the second league title in a row.

Bravo.

 

 

Thanks guys

Edited July 16, 2022 by shaunvamos

[shaunvamos]

August 2033

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect start.

 

 

 

A tough group, but we beat Sevilla in the Europa League 3 seasons ago, and we're better than we were then. 3rd place is the minimum expectation. Celtic and Rangers can definitely nab a Europa League knockout spot, as we edge closer to France's coefficient ranking. 

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Great stuff bud and some excellent (re-)signings and a "nice" draw there.  Group G looks absolutely horrendous on history alone; insane to think that draw is possible in a group.

All the best!

[shaunvamos]

September 2033

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Celtic draw first blood in the league, which is worrying. On a kore positive note we've gone 2 from 2 to open the Champions League!

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

An easy run of fixtures this month, as Germany lose to Romania making this group a lot more interesting all of a sudden.

[shaunvamos]

October 2033

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A couple of annoying losses in the league, but we don't lose too much ground to Celtic, and we've already qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League  

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

The loss to Germany sets things up for an exciting finish. Our last game is against Andorra, so Romania are really going to have to flog their opponents to overtake us.

[shaunvamos]

November 2033

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A heavy loss to Aberdeen and Celtic extends the gap to 9 points at the top. We still play them another 3 times, so beating them will draw us equal theoretically, but it's a huge mountain to climb this early.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

 

 

Safely through to the 2034 World Cup  

[shaunvamos]

December 2023

 

 

 

 

 

A mixed month by our standards, but the gap has been reduced slightly, and the draw against Dortmund means we top our Champions League group

 

 

 

 

 

And of course that means we get Haaland led, reigning runners-up PSG 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

January 2034

 

 

 

 

 

It's an unbeaten month, and we inch ever closer to Celtic.

[shaunvamos]

February 2034

 

 

 

 

 

Despite the loss to Celtic we only lose 1 point in ground.

[shaunvamos]

2034 Youth Intake

 

 

 

John Wilson 12A  -  Ádám Fekete 12B*  -  Eddie Gow 12C*

 

 

 

An excellent, very deep intake, with some amazing personalities (except the alleged jewel). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

\

[shaunvamos]

March 2034

 

 

 

 

 

Our form is perfect and the deficit is now 5. Even if we don't win, we will still likely get a CL group spot if we finish 2nd which is some consolation.

 

 

 

National Team

 

 

 

It's only a friendly, but the dominant win over the Netherlands gives us confidence ahead of the World Cup.

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Great stuff here and a really nice youth intake. Unfortunate with PSG but definitely getting closer to their level now, couple more seasons maybe?

Could I ask how it is that you plot the flags on the map to track where newgens have come from? I love the idea and wanted to use something similar.

Keep up the awesome progression!

[shaunvamos]

April 2034

 

 

 

 

 

The gap is two points. We have Celtic at home our next game. If we lose, it's all over (probably). If we win, it's far from over even though we'd take the lead. If we tie, well, it's still really close.

[shaunvamos]

2 hours ago, FiftyBeforeThirty said:

Great stuff here and a really nice youth intake. Unfortunate with PSG but definitely getting closer to their level now, couple more seasons maybe?

Could I ask how it is that you plot the flags on the map to track where newgens have come from? I love the idea and wanted to use something similar.

Keep up the awesome progression!

Thanks! Hopefully we can start to match these guys like PSG within the next 5 seasons, we aren't too far away for sure. 

I create a custom map on google maps and you can replace the marker icon with a custom icon, which I make as the country flag. You can search for them through the maps feature.

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We beat Celtic, and then they capitulated, handing us the title without too much of a fight in the end, as we get our third in a row and a double to boot

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Christopher Wear  -  Kyle Pearson  -  Dylan Munro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[shaunvamos]

Scotland's 2034 World Cup Campaign

 

Squad

 

 

There's a nice mix here, but plenty of Scottish Premiership representation here especially from teams you wouldn't expect. Stenhousemuir also have 3 representatives in the squad, including 20 year old wonderkid Aiden Hay 7A* who spent the season on loan in the Bundesliga. The average age is also below 30, with only an ancient Scott McTominay and Allan Campbell being over 35.

 

This is also a little bit of an insight into how the selection process for the national team is conducted. You'll see the last column there, "AdjRtg". This is the average rating of a player accounting for the standard of league they are playing in. I've based this on the star reputation rating and scaled them based on this. For example, the EPL is rated 4.5 stars in my save so far so the average rating gets a 0.9 multiplier. 4 star leagues get a 0.8 multiplier, 3.5 stars 0.7 and so on.

I've used this method to better account for form and playing time, as logically it doesn't matter how good the player is, if they're out of form or not playing often it doesn't make sense to pick them when there are plenty of other players who are. It also allows for a bit more variability in selecting the squads as well, and will hopefully weed out the 38 year old players that maintain a high attribute value but may not play as much. The scaling is used as in my opinion, playing in a higher reputation division means you're playing with and against quality players, getting access to coaching and facilities and are therefore better players. 

 

I've written a script using coding software to make this happen, as it's so much easier to automate the AdjRtg values when there are multiple leagues (as many as one wants).

 

I also might be trialling it as a recruitment tool in the next chapter of this save, as it is a more stats based approach to things....

 

 

 

Ideal XI

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

 

 

 

 

Central Defenders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wing Backs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defensive Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

Central Midfielders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strikers

 

 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by shaunvamos

[FiftyBeforeThirty]

Great stuff in the League and Cup double - definitely continuing to move on up in the Scottish footballing world, despite a harder year with Celtic this time around.  Thanks also for the tip, I'll have to give that a little look-see, cheers!

Keep it up, can't wait to see how the World Cup pans out

[shaunvamos]

Scotland's 2034 World Cup Campaign

 

Friendlies

 

 

 

Solid but unspectacular run in the friendlies as we just try and get everyone up to speed fitness wise.

 

 

 

 

 

Hosts South Korea get blessed with a pretty decent group, as do Belgium, Germany and Brazil.

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria should be the only tough team, and I fully expect to take care of Uzbekistan. France and Spain are going to score a lot of goals, and England get a tough team in Colombia but should smash Guinea-Bissau.

 

 

 

 

 

Portugal and Australia should romp past Haiti, Italy get a comfortable group, it's anyone's game in Group K and Argentina will leave Greece and Morocco to fight for the last knockout spot.

 

 

 

 

 

Chile, Senegal and Turkey is a real group of death, anyone could miss out there. Holland and Mexico should cruise through their groups, and Uruguay should too.

[shaunvamos]

Scotland's 2034 World Cup Campaign

 

Group Stage

 

 

 

So yeah, this happened. Completely swept aside the poor Uzbeks, and then a 95th minute goal allows us to squeak by Nigeria.

 

 

 

 

 

Hosts Korea top their group ahead of the Irish, but a huge boilover in group B as Belgium fall apart, losing to Thailand and drawing with the Ivorians to crash out. Germany and Brazil provide no shocks in their groups, and are joined by Canada and Norway in the Second Round.

 

 

 

 

 

New Zealand defeat Congo to reach the next stage, joined by Cameroon, England and Colombia.

 

 

 

 

 

Portugal, Italy and USA progress with two wins, joined by Asian strongholds Australia and Saudi Arabia. Denmark sneak in by virtue of being beaten by the USA by fewer goals, and Group L sees the elimination of another major contender in Argentina, but I don't know what criteria they met to miss out given that everything looks equal.

 

 

 

 

 

No real surprises here, except maybe Sweden over Uruguay.

 

 

 

 

 

We get what should be an easy game against New Zealand, but complacency can't creep in. South Korea also get a favourable draw, Spain a potential roadblock in Colombia, and prospective high quality matches with Uruguay/Mexico and Turkey/Holland.

[shaunvamos]

Scotland's 2034 World Cup Campaign

 

Second Round

 

 

 

A game that was a lot less close than it looked given New Zealand's late attempted comeback.

 

 

 

 

 

Hosts South Korea fall to the Ivorians as the Thai dream is shattered by the Irish. Germany and Brazil have hard fought wins, footballing heavyweights France crash out to Nigeria, and both Spain and England have to work hard to win their games.

 

 

 

 

 

Portugal and Italy have harder games than they would've thought, USA takes care of Greece, the Moroccans advance to the last 16, Chile win the battle of the South Americans against Ecuador, the Dutch put 5 past Turkey in a strong showing, Sweden push Iran aside and Uruguay win a tough fixture against Mexico.

 

 

 

 

 

There's no way we're beating the three time defending champions who are looking to make it a 4th straight World Cup. I'm just hoping we'll keep it close. Brazil, Portugal and Germany get theoretically easy draws, Spain have to deal with a Nigeria that knocked France out, the old guard meets the new as Italy take on the United States, and not to be outdone, the Chile/Uruguay and Holland/Sweden games are enticing as well.

 

 

 

Third Round

 

 

 

Well, we pushed them to extra time, but they're just better.

 

 

 

 

 

Another big upset as Germany are knocked by Ireland, in what is clearly due to strong Irish newgens coming up through the English ranks ( a grand total of 2 of 13 newgens in the squad came from within Ireland). That was the only result of note here, as pretty much everything else went according to the script.

 

 

 

Quarter Finals

 

 

 

It's cold comfort that Ireland knock  the English out in the quarters, where they're joined by Brazil, Holland and Uruguay. One of these teams doesn't belong.

 

 

 

Semi Finals

 

 

 

Yep, Ireland are in the final  They face Uruguay, who arguably were the underdogs against Brazil.

 

 

 

Third Place Playoff

 

 

 

Brazil go unclassified in this World Cup after Holland beats the,. But this isn't the match everyone came for.

 

 

 

Final

 

 

 

Finally, a sense of normality as Uruguay win their first World Cup since 1950.

[shaunvamos]

2034 Preseason

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

It's a brutal departure window, as we lose starting striker and captain Dylan Munro for free to rivals Celtic and vice captain Kyle Pearson for 12m to new EPL side Middlesbrough. If that wasn't bad enough, we lose a third Scottish international in wonderkid Aiden Hay to Wolves for 20.5m. We have a 20% next sale on him, and it made sense to cash in as he was only going to feature from the bench this season. It's obvious he has something my formula is overlooking (potential), which is the main flaw of the formula. At least now we have a lot of money I guess.

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

 

 

The nature of the Premier League means we can't afford to buy anyone outright, so we have four players join on loan. We did manage to get a cheap deal on United youngster Robin Davies as a replacement for Pearson, while Broad was the backup plan in case we didn't get Davies. So he joins too but will come on from the bench to start the season.

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

 

 

 

 

Central Defender

 

 

 

 

 

Wing Backs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Midfielder

 

 

 

 

 

Striker

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perfect preseason.

 

 

 

 

 

What I don't get is Rangers predicted first when they haven't finished higher than 3rd in 6 seasons. Silly.