Conceding with first shot on target

[daoc]

Does anyone else have this problem? Teams scoring against you with their first shot on target?

I thought that maybe I was experiencing some recency bias because it seemed that it was happening way more often in the game than it does in real life. So, I decided to record some stats. Over a span of 50 games, my team conceded goals in 22 of them. 10 of which were scored by the opposition's first shot on target. One of those goals was a penalty.

Percentage of games where my team conceded a goal, that were also the first shot on target is 45.45%. And as a percentage of total games played, its 20%. Basically, if I concede in any given game, there's a, petty much, 1 in 2 chance the opponent scores with their first shot on target. Or, out of any given game, a 1 in 5 chance.

The average xG for these goals from the first shot on target is 0.21, and the median is 0.10. Excluding the penalty, this drops down to an average of 0.15 xG and a median of 0.08 xG. 

It's not like these chances are big chances that the opponent is scoring from (penalty excluded). A median of 0.08xG is below average. So, like, what's the deal with this? Does anyone have a similar experience?

I feel like my team very rarely scores with its first shot on target. I'll test it out over the next 50 games and see how it stacks up.

[paz]

In the 50 game sample, how many times did you use the same gk? Do you have a SS of his stats?

In that 50 game sample, I think you are saying once in every 5 games, you are conceding with your first shot on target you give up. Is that right?

[agent007]

yes , mostly against teams that plays park the bus

[MBarbaric]

 

if you conceded only in 22 matches from 50 played, i'd guess you are among the top teams in the league (if not the best), very high up the table and playing a very offensive style of football. all this could make your players complacent leading to stupid goals and unusual patterns you are experiencing. 

[gunner86]

There’s a few gaps in your numbers from analysis point of view. 
How many shots are you facing in a game?

How many shots on target?

What minute in the game are you conceding these shots/goals?

Nome of this is to say that you’re wrong by the way. I do on occasion notice similar patterns, but like mentioned above I’m currently the dominant team in most games.

Conversely, I do have occasions where it goes the other way - in my UEFA super cup final I scored from both of my first 2 shots on target (ended up winning 4-0 from 6 shots on target) and those goals game in the 44th and 56th minutes.

[Freakiie]

As pointed out, at 22 goals in 50 games you're clearly a very dominant team in your league. This means that you generally won't get a lot of shots against you in general and thus very low numbers for shots on target. That will automatically skew the numbers towards the goals scored against you coming from a low number of shots on target. The opposition obviously can't score against you with their 4th shot on target if they don't even have 4 shots on target. So, as a result, you will see a lot of goals scored against you from the oppositions first shot on target.

Honestly, it looks to me like your defense is doing their job fine, but that as a dominant team you run into the occasional counter giving away some solid chances. An average of 0,15xG is really not that low, so the few chances your opposition gets are pretty solid.

Of course there could be some other factors at play here as well, perhaps a low concentration GK who struggles with focus as he has nothing to do for most of the match, complacency when your team is ahead or who knows what other factors. Unless it really starts costing you points though I wouldn't be to bothered by it though.