[Suggestion] Breakout potential

[MRC]

My suggestion for future editions of FM is what may well be a revolution to how we - or some - play the game.

Let's see what the current state is. Our players have a current ability, and our players have a potential. Whether or not they reach that potential is up to many different factors, but we know it's there. We can scout for it. We can maximise our chances to get them to reach their potential pretty consistently. We can even look it up on different sites.

Some players have a set potential that they will have in every single save, others have a ranged potential and they might be better in some saves, worse than others. But once the file is created, so is their potential.
There's no way for a player's set potential to change.

But, what if there was?

Breakout potential is a concept I propose that takes into account that every year there are numerous players breaking out of what we thought their range was and reaching new heights - they're breaking out, often leading to subsequent massive increases in their potential in the next edition of FM or in a future update.

So what if we had something like this ingame? A chance, just a chance, one, we cannot assess, one, we cannot scout for, that a player will suddenly break out and our perception of them changes?

This is what a propose.
Breakout potential as a chance that we can influence, but never assess, and never force, that a player will go beyond what we thought was possible.
Young age, good personality, good facilities and staff good training, regular gametime, mentoring, happiness, good ratings - all of this should be able to have SOME influence on how likely the player is to break out, but all of it should be very minor. We are merely doing what we'd do to a player we want to be their best. 
Their actual breakout potential (which should be at most in the low single digit % imo even for the players we deem most likely to surpass their boundaries) should be largely set.

What does this do for the game?

While not an accurate reflection of reality in the sense that the exact player that has their breakout season gets an update in this or the subsequent FM, what is simulated here is the very reality of us never being able to fully assess a young player, no matter how well we do. We can never tell who will make it for sure, we can never tell who will break out, we can never tell if someone will break out. And this is what's simulated by adding breakout potential.

It makes saves in the upper echelons of football more diverse and less predictable. Of course you are still gonna have all of your wonderkids and all of your stars - but players you didn't expect will suddenly hit the stage running, and come 5 years into the safe there may be an army of players you never had on your radar.

For this reason it also makes online saves and saves where you work with your youth only more interesting.

When players "break out", this may be spotted. It comes with a rapid increase in ability and an increase in potential.

Let me hear what you think & if you have anything to add!



 

[Lampard4King]

This would make the potential of a Jamie Vardy happening again so much better. Of course a cap on the potential increase would be appropriate to ensure national league players dont become world beaters at 28 regularly

 

[MRC]

Am 20.11.2023 um 03:36 schrieb Lampard4King:

This would make the potential of a Jamie Vardy happening again so much better. Of course a cap on the potential increase would be appropriate to ensure national league players dont become world beaters at 28 regularly

 

Exactly, age should play a deciding factor in this and in how much players who break out actually improve - at the very least on a probability level.

I'd also propose to do something similar for "Late bloomers", people outside the norm who suddenly hit the ground running at 24 or 25 like others do at 18, 19 or 20. It should be rare, but it should happen on occasion.

Because it does happen in real life. Not a lot, but maybe more often than people realise. Jamie Vardy obviously comes to mind, but he's far from the only one.

Another one who caught my eye recently was Marco Grüll from Rapid Vienna who is rumored to move to Werder Bremen. While he is only 25, the way he went is quite remarkable. At age 20/21, he was still playing football for a small club in the third tier of Austria and had never been affiliated with a professional club. Normally you look at a player like that and go "It's too late, he's past the point where he can feasibly adapt to football at a high level" (most notably it was Arsene Wenger who said something amongst the lines of this about players aged 20/21 from smaller leagues).
And yet now, at 25, he's played for the national team and he might well become a Bundesliga player.

Edited November 25, 2023 by MRC

[boey]

On 25/11/2023 at 04:46, MRC said:

I'd also propose to do something similar for "Late bloomers", people outside the norm who suddenly hit the ground running at 24 or 25 like others do at 18, 19 or 20. It should be rare, but it should happen on occasion.

They're in the game already (somewhat). Players with high PAs and a lot of room to grow can start growing at much later ages now, although less common. I've had wonderkids stagnate from 18-22 then start growing rapidly at 23/24.

[MRC]

vor 1 Stunde schrieb boey:

They're in the game already (somewhat). Players with high PAs and a lot of room to grow can start growing at much later ages now, although less common. I've had wonderkids stagnate from 18-22 then start growing rapidly at 23/24.

I guess it can happen although I don't believe it's in the game as a mechanic. Although I would be intrigued to know if there were any confounders? For example, did you use mentoring? Because they might have had a detrimental personality that changed via mentoring.
Obviously it's similar for gametime and match rating. If they struggled to get a lot of gametime or you struggled to do well, it would be natural for them to not progress as much or even stagnate, whereas if they found themselves getting regular gametime and good ratings because you are smashing it out the park, that could then accelerate progression as well.

With that said, 23, while late, I don't think should be the end of it for late bloomers. I'm thinking significant development even starting at 25/26, where your usual player kinda enters their prime and stops with the massive, massive progress before eventually stagnating more or less.

[boey]

2 minutes ago, MRC said:

With that said, 23, while late, I don't think should be the end of it for late bloomers. I'm thinking significant development even starting at 25/26, where your usual player kinda enters their prime and stops with the massive, massive progress before eventually stagnating more or less.

I agree

[Michael Sant]

We have made further changes in this area and are always assessing development curves and behaviour for players. You may notice in this years edition of the game some players become dubbed as "late developers" in their media description. This can be seen as late as ages 28/29 if memory serves correctly.

With how we visualise potential ability it is the best a person can ever be, if everything goes as best it can then that persons absolute limits. At this time for the game the idea is somewhat similar to what we've seen suggested before but isn't really compatible with the current definition of potential ability. When it comes to potential ability with real players there are changes between data updates, and ranges utilised, but this is more of a reflection of the fact that researchers are having to make use their best judgement. Over time factors can emerge which shift that. When it comes to newgens however, the game is categorical and unmistakable in its assessment of that individuals potential. 

We'll keep the idea in mind but the current direction of development is to have increasing nuance in player development models that cater for all the things we see in real football to be possible.