lfds89
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Posts posted by lfds89
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MARCH
MATCHES
It didn't start how we wanted, but 4 points in 3 matches is decent. Beating Augsburg leaves them 9 points away and they are away from the relegation places, so we have a safe margin.
vs Bochum (A) - 1-2 L
We started strong but then we gifted them a goal near half-time and they took charge of the game. Oddly, we have higher xG from fewer shots on target and fewer chances.
vs Dortmund (H) - 0-0 D
"Notable Events"... Against our rivals and one of the best teams in the league we did well. More possession, 1 CCC, and we didn't allow any from them.
vs Augsburg (A) - 1-0 W
0.08xG from 6 shots is embarrassing for Augsburg. We also had 3 shots hitting the woodwork that somehow don't count for the shots on target metric.
We stand in 11th with 29 points out of 25 matches (1.16 ppg). Usually, it's needed 34+ points to survive but I don't think any of the bottom 3 teams will get there. Hertha is en route to 24/25 and they have lost 4 of the last 5; Stuttgart have lost 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 and they still have a cup game this month; Bochum is in better form with 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 but it'll be hard to keep such form in the coming matches. We should be safe now, but 35 is still the first objective and then the more the merrier.
NEXT MATCHES
We have 2 months to go and 2 big ones: 5 + 4 games
Bayer 04, H, 13th
Hoffenheim, A, 5th
Hertha, H, 16th
Freiburg, A, 7th
Werder, H, 12th
Once again, getting at least 1 ppg would be great.
NXGN 2023
Ouédraogo makes the cut. Hope to get more players in the coming years.
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5 horas atrás, warlock disse:
Not great but, as noted, not a surprise. I really need to thin out the u20s squad - 60 players, even on not much money, adds up to quite a chunk of change over the season. And there's only about 6 who have a hope of making it to the senior squad.
I've managed to move on a few of the fringe players this transfer window, and hung on to almost everyone I wanted to keep, so some progress has been made. Much will depend on the generosity - or otherwise! - of the board this summer.
Some of them, even if you can only get 10/20% of the wage being paid while on loan it adds up in the end.
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Em 05/09/2024 em 19:55, Hootieleece disse:
Decent intake! It will be a season or two before we see them break into the lineup though.
2 seasons is probably a bit optimistic.
Keke doesn't have the attributes to be a starter in the Bundesliga.
And so doesn't Assan.
Still, the new guys are quite far from them. I'll try to have them near the first team next season or the one after and if they can get some minutes, even better.
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YOUTH INTAKE
Here it is:
And based on my spreadsheet:
Name Best Pos Personality Age Best Position Positions BPR TR Pot BPR Paweł Żebrowski ST (C) Fairly Loyal 15 WF WF ST 53 50 67 Iván Rubio M (C) Fairly Professional 15 CM DM CM 53 48 67 Helge Deubel D (R) Fairly Professional 16 DM CB DM 54 49 66 Guychel Mayele WB (L) Fickle 15 FB FB DM CM 51 49 65 Aleksandar Özgen DM Determined 16 CB FB CB 51 49 63 Jan Eichner M (L) Light-Hearted 16 ST FB ST 50 44 62 Amin Alloush D (R) Fairly Professional 16 CM DM CM 48 44 61 Charlie Palumbo M (C) Balanced 15 DM DM CM 46 42 60 Tim-Sebastian Wittwer D (C) Fairly Professional 15 CB CB 45 41 59 Simão Campos GK Balanced 16 GK GK 47 30 59 Sefa Şentürk AM (R) Unambitious 15 DM DM CM WF 44 40 59 Refik Dolutaş M (L) Fairly Professional 15 CB CB 43 39 58 Baran Çolak M (R) Unambitious 15 WF WF ST 42 37 56 Meik Pusch D (L) Balanced 15 CB CB 42 40 56 Sebastian Walter AM (R) Unambitious 16 WF WF ST 42 38 55 Dominick Krempicki AM (R) Fairly Professional 16 WF WF 39 31 52
Pawel needs some agility and pace; some dribbling, finishing, and passing. I might train him as LW.
Rubio needs a big improvement in his physical. CM/DM suits him.
Deubel also needs improvement in his physical. He might be useful as CB as well.
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FEBRUARY
MATCHES
Not what I had in mind, but 4 points in 4 matches so it keeps us in line with the goal.
Also, a note regarding injuries: Neto (our new star), Linde (our new GK), Skarke (one of our best players), Ouédraogo (highest average rating), Sepp (our second-best RB and CB) and Roerslev (our new RB) have all missed at least one game this month and most of them missed at least 3 of the 4 matches. It's not an excuse, just something that adds to the list of difficulties presented. And as some of the injuries happened in training, I've decided to alter the schedule:
Effects went from:
to
Lower fatigue and injury risk, also lower happiness, the rest remains similar. Let's see if it makes a difference.
New schedule
I've also created a second schedule, in a more attacking manner:
As soon as I stabilize on a tactic and the team dynamic is better, I'll focus more on skill training and less on the tactical and psychological part.
vs Gladbach (A) - 0-1 L
An even game, but they were slightly better so they deserve the win.
vs Wolfsburg (H) - 1-1 D
We were better, but they created a better chance.
vs Union Berlin (A) - 0-1 L
They scored from an xG of less than 0.10 and then we didn't create any great chance, but we were better.
After this match, I started doubting what we were doing as we were once again collapsing. So I got back to my statistics:
GD SD STD xgD CRD xg/ShD Pts First 9 games -0,44 -1,78 -1,67 -0,29 -0,01 0,01 0,89 Next 6 games 1,17 3,67 2,00 0,76 0,08 0,05 2,00 After winter break -0,67 0,50 0,33 0,08 -0,08 0,01 0,33 Shot, shot on target, xG and xG per Shot difference is still positive, so I trust the process.
vs Stuttgart (H) - 3-0 W
We needed this win and we were far better than them.
8 points away from the relegation places. 10 points away from the 35-point objective.
xG Table also shows we are doing a good job:
We are 9th on Shots For, Goals For and Chances Created; 8th in Goals Conceded and 6th on Shots Against. If anything, being 11th feels cruel to us.
NEXT MATCHES
The next matches have some mandatory points against relegation-battling teams
In the next month, we'll also have the new youth intake. I'm quite excited to see what we bring in.
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I went through all the statistics in the league, I tried to sort the players based on the most performed actions in each position.
[Schalke players with 400+ minutes; Bundesliga players with 10+ starting appearances]
GK [Leader is Manuel Riemann]
Alexander Schwolow - 16th
FB [Leaders are Felix Agu and Lucas Netz, for reference Alphonso Davies is 3rd]
Thomas Ouwejan - 22nd
Tim Skarke - 27th
Cédric Brunner - 54th
Sepp van den Berg - 74th
CB [Leaders are Philipp Lienhart and van Hecke; Upamecano 6th; de Ligt 9th]
Moritz Jenz - 27th
Sepp van den Berg - 37th
Leo Greiml - 44th
CM [Leaders are Goretza and Kimmich]
Thomas Ouwejan - 12th
Alex Král - 28th
Tom Krauß - 36th
Wingers/CAM [Leaders are Timo Werner and Lucas Höler; Musiala is 4th]
Tim Skarke - 15th
Michaël Frey - 44th
Rodrigo Zalazar - 73rd
Amine Adli - 53rd
Assan Ouédraogo - 69th
Sôichirô Kôzuki - 95th
ST [Leaders are Timo Werner and Kramaric; Muani is 3rd]
Sebastian Polter - 10th
Keke Topp - 18th
Michaël Frey - 20th
Amine Adli - 45th
Some takeaways:
Zalazar is nowhere to be seen. When I checked in more detail, I noticed he's not great at anything. He has some dribbling, but no pace; passing and vision are both 13 so he isn't a playmaker. He's a good set-piece taker and distance shooter, but that doesn't make a starter.
I'm curious to see how Linde compares to Schwolow (but he's injured...)
Sepp is way better as CB than FB.
Ouwejan adds a lot from the FB position (compared to the other options on FB roles), so much so that he has good statistics for the CM position. Since Zalazar's profile is close to his, might train Zalazar as FB as I need one better than Brunner for next season (Roerslev should help this season).
Need a more creative midfielder. Maybe Ouédraogo can be that player in the future.
Skarke has been great but I don't have any other options in the winger position and I'm losing him next season (he's on loan). This is my priority when I have some funds to spend.
Polter surprised me as he never seemed that good. But truth be told he has been getting better. With Keke as backup we are fine, although as mentioned in other posts, I would like to have a different type of striker.
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Em 01/09/2024 em 12:24, Hootieleece disse:
Neto is a good piece of business, but you will need to keep Polter around for his Aerial Ability. Thinking like Olivier Giroud come on when plan A isn't working and get the needed goal or goals.
About Neto: what's the first thing that happens when you sign someone to make a difference on FM? Exactly, injured for a month. So is Linde, the GK...
Polter is the second-best striker in the league in aerial duels, with 54% won. But right now he's my plan A. He has been rotating with Keke and Frey, but he has the most minutes of the 3.
I'll go through some statistics and at first sight, I'll have to rethink my opinion on some players.
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DEADLINE UPDATE
For 113k/month is a great deal. Can be an option on the wings or upfront.
Comparing him to my best winger:
And to my best striker:
We also got a RB on loan
He's better than Brunner and it will allow Sepp van den Berg to play as CB.
Summary
IN
3 loans in: a starter RB, a starter Winger/ST and a rotational midfielder.
A prospect and a starter GK.
OUT
Some loans out from our second team. There should be more on the restricted transfer deadline.
Sold Yoshida who was experienced but didn't have the quality I wanted.
It doesn't show on any screen, but as I've mentioned before, also terminated the loan of Balanta (CB) and Uronen (LB).
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JANUARY
LOOKING BACK
First, let's take a look at the differences between before the moment I decided to watch the games in full (and make deep tactical changes) and after.
GD SD STD xgD CRD xg/ShD Pts First 9 games -0,44 -1,78 -1,67 -0,29 -0,01 0,01 0,89 Next 6 games 1,17 3,67 2,00 0,76 0,08 0,05 2,00 These are the averages for:
GD - Goal difference;
SD - Shot Difference;
STD - Shots on Target Difference (should have chosen a different acronym);
xgD - Expected Goals Difference;
CRD - Conversion Rate Difference;
xg/ShD - Expected Goal per Shot Difference;
Pts - Points
Everything is better, hope it stays that way.
LAST TRANSFERS
I don't want to be very dependent on loans, but when there's a good deal, we need to take it. In this case, Tiago Silva will occupy Dembélé's space in the squad for 20k/month. Mandatory fee of 1,2M if he plays more than 30 games. We don't have 30 games until the end of the season, so it's not mandatory.
He only played in 5 matches, and wasn't very good in them. We have Mohr as a backup and Becker as a prospect, so I terminated his loan.
I've also terminated Balanta's loan. He has decent mental and technical attributes but he isn't quick and he can't jump so I can't find any use to him in defence and he isn't good enough on the ball to play anywhere else.
All this means we started the season with a wage spending of 3.35M/month and are now at 2,52M/month. That is roughly 10M/year.
This update ends on the morning of the 31st of January so there might still be some deal done, but I'm not expecting anything to happen.
MATCHES
vs Frankfurt (A) - 1-2 L
It was not our best game, but we still created 1 CC chance and 1 half chance to their 2+1 which isn't that bad. Kolo Muani is a great striker.
vs Leipzig (H) - 1-2 L
Unlucky, but we were slightly better. Werner is the top goalscorer in the league, scoring 17 goals in 16 matches.
After this game, we have already played once against every team. We stand in 11th with 20 points; 5 more than Stuttgart and Augsburg who are 15th and 16th. Fairly successful first half of the season. We need 15 more points at least in the second half. Let's go!
vs Köln (H) - 1-1 D
I always find very difficult to play against a Diamond and this was no different. I used the same principles I had been using: one more CB than their strikers; man for man over the pitch; leave one CB unmarked. This turned into a 3-6-1 Diamond. It is the strangest shape I've played in. It wasn't working especially in an overcrowded middle so I pushed my CAM upfront and changed to a 3-1-4-2. We got more comfortable and eventually scored the equaliser but I wanted to win this one. They are below us in the table and I wanted to create some distance. Despite all of this, in our first encounter, we lost 4-0 so that's a good improvement.
Looking at a distance might seem like a bad run, but I don't think it is. It was unrealistic to expect much from the games against Frankfurt and Leipzig and still, we played well and gave them a fight. The game against Köln should have been better but at the end of the day it's one more point and a much better performance than the first one.
Next Matches
Gladbach, A, 4-2-3-1 DM AM Wide, 5th, 1st Match: 1-1 D
Wolfsburg, H, 4-3-3 DM Wide, 10th, 1st Match: 1-0 W
Union, A, 5-3-2 DM WB, 9th, 1st Match: 3-0 W
Stuttgart, H, 4-3-3 DM Wide / 4-2-3-1 DM AM Wide, 15th, 1st Match: 1-1 D
If we can get the same amount of points we did in the first round, it would be great. But... Gladbach has 3 wins in the last 5; Union has 4 wins in the last 5. At least we need to beat Stuttgart and get some more points where we can.
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WINTER TRANSFERS UPDATE
He was an end-of-contract target. He wants to keep his options open. but at least he prefers us.
A youngster coming in. My scouts rated him quite high, doesn't seem to be the case with my closest staff. He isn't bad and the transfer fee was 1,2M so if he doesn't turn out that good, I'm sure we can still make a profit on him. However, one more reason to take full control of the scouting department next season.
Another end-of-contract target. He would be the leader of our defense. However, he chose Almería because " their squad is better"... Ouch!
Finally I get a CB, and a left-footed one!
Near Jenz level and can also play as DM. There's a Buy-Now option for 700k but I won't take it.
A decent prospect also ending his contract. "Our stature isn't big enough". When we are sure about avoiding relegation, I'm confident the stature will increase and it'll be easier to attract talent.
I'm midway through January so there's still time to do more business. We restart the league in 1 week.
NEXT FIXTURES
Frankfurt, 3rd, 5-2-2-1, Away
Leipzig, 2nd, 4-2-3-1, Home
Köln, 16th, 4-4-2 Diamond Narrow, Home
2 tough games and a difficult formation to face (Narrow Diamond). Let's see what we can get out of this.
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19 horas atrás, Hootieleece disse:
I tis better to overachieve low goals than put the pressure on.
Also to help with cohesion use the Team Bonding Practice Session after a matchday. (I usually have the day after a match filled with Recovery, Match Review, and Team Bonding sessions.
Also, the community relations practice session helps with teamwork and cohesion if you can fit it in.
Yeah, I know. I'm maximizing it in training.
This is my usual training session (right now):
Travel takes place in the Community Outreach session.
19 horas atrás, warlock disse:Yup... under-promise, over-deliver
My FM motto
2 -
ANOTHER MISCELLANEOUS UPDATE
ELECTIONS
Different names, but no big changes. I had an objective around increasing commercial revenue, and now it changed to reputation.
TRANSFERS
137k/month. Kaminsky has recovered from his injury and will fill Yoshida's place in the squad. I might also opt to give the youngster Bulut some minutes and move Sepp van den Berg to the middle.
I tried to talk him out of this decision, but he wanted to retire. Not optimal for my squad, but Ouédraogo will play more in his role, Drexler will also serve as backup in the middle and Hansen will be around the team.
Harit is sold, so 5M in.
We also have some offers for incoming players, but nothing is closed yet.
SEASON EXPECTATIONS
January arrived with a question from the board:
Changing the goal to a mid-table finish would add 200k/month to the wage budget. We are 9th but only 6 points away from 15th and I don't think the added pressure will help us. So I'll keep the objective as it is.
DEVELOPMENT
Name Personality Age Transfer Value Best Position Best Rating BPR Variation Éder Balanta Fairly Loyal 29 4 100 000,00 € CB 67 -0,6 Dominick Drexler Balanced 32 550 000,00 € DM 63 -1,2 Enes Rüzgar Balanced 17 300 000,00 € ST 49 -1,0 Marcin Kamiński Fairly Sporting 30 750 000,00 € CB 62 -0,6 Semin Kojic Balanced 18 130 000,00 € ST 57 -0,2 Alex Král Fairly Determined 24 10 500 000,00 € DM 65 -0,2 Michael Langer Fairly Professional 37 18 000,00 € GK 59 -0,7 Denis Milic Balanced 18 80 000,00 € CB 56 -0,6 Tristan Osmani Balanced 17 300 000,00 € WF 54 -0,3 Niklas Tauer Fairly Determined 21 9 000 000,00 € CB 63 -0,1 Simon Terodde Resolute 34 160 000,00 € ST 65 -1,1 Yannick Tonye Balanced 18 325 000,00 € FB 49 -1,5 These are the guys who are regressing. From the first squad are only the ones over 29, and Kral and Tauer have dropped a bit after injuries.
Kojic is a high-potential player but he had an injury as well. Disappointed with Milic and Osmani who could develop into interesting players.
On the other side:
Name Personality Age Transfer Value Best Position Best Rating BPR Variation Mattes Hansen Balanced 18 1 000 000,00 € CB 56 3,2 Til Heitzmann Balanced 17 1 200 000,00 € CB 55 2,1 Luis Rödel Balanced 18 55 000,00 € GK 49 3,1 Taylan Bulut Resolute 16 10 000 000,00 € FB 59 2,0 Steven van der Sloot Balanced 20 275 000,00 € WF 53 2,1 Zaid Amoussou-Tchibara Balanced 16 Not for Sale ST 58 2,0 Hansen and Bulut have been training with the first team, Tchibara is a future transfer that was already arranged. Heitzmann is a left-footed CB which is always handy.
Edit: Forgot this
Getting better. Yey!
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1 conceded in 9 games. That's amazing!
This is the season, certainly.
Can you post a screenshot of your tactic?
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MISCELLANEOUS UPDATE FROM THE WORLD CUP / WINTER BREAK
Clauses
We need money, so I checked what clauses we had available and this was the only one that seemed decent. Ozan is valued between 20 to 30 M. 20% of that is 4-6M, might as well secure that.
A few days after another one became available:
Malick Thiaw is valued at 10-16M. He has yet to play a single game for Milan.
They don't move my budget a lot, but bring in much-needed money for the balance.
Youth Intake
Golden Generation, 5 stars. Let's wait and see what we get. Don't know if changing the tactics all the time has an impact, but getting full-backs, wing-backs and wide midfielders is weird. I suppose I'l get someone who can play all 3 positions.
Transfers
I made some arrangements for my DOF to work on. It's in line with the assessed needs. I'm just missing a target as LW.
I don't need a GK right now, but if my DOF negotiates it that way, since I can't give him the order to set it for next season, I'll try to offload someone Langer or if Schwolow become injured, I'll terminate his loan.
Pfeiffer is a long shot. He has a big list of interested teams. He's also not left-footed, but he is strong on that foot. I have no other options right now.
I'm not happy with the work of the scouting network, so I'll probably take control of it in the next season. I'll focus on the tactics and the team this season.
A few days after, the first signing is confirmed:
He signed as a backup, so he'll be happy about his playing time this season and more than happy about being first-choice next season. It's also a 2-for-1 as Heekeren is on loan at Fürth and wasn't playing so he'll get his chance now.
He's a bit better than Schwolow, although his statistics aren't great. We have half a season to test him.
Not a great transfer, I must assume, but we'll get there eventually.
Staff
And speaking of the scouting team, we added a new scout:
Great attributes and the knowledge of South America were the decisive factors.
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SQUAD (CONT.)
CAM
Frey was my initial option; Karaman was the backup; Ouédraogo was meant to be around the first team and play here and there. As the season evolved this was the position that changed the most. Now, Frey is usually my first option as ST; Karaman is barely used; Ouédraogo is the player with the highest average rating in my team and near 500 minutes played. Adli (in the winger section) as also played in this position and so did Zalazar.
Amine Harit has a mandatory fee after 15 games and he has already played 13, so it's close to being activated. I'm glad it is, because his salary is 416k and the second biggest is 137k!
For next season, Karaman and Ouédraogo are obvious choices. I'll probably try and find a replacement for Karaman, but it's not a priority. Gashi doesn't seem to have the pace to be an elite winger, so maybe I'll try to train him as CAM and he might be around the squad.
RW
Kozuki has the most minutes, sometimes Skarke has played there, Drexler had some minutes as well.
I should probably do LW and RW together as there's a big mix between both places, but I'll try and divide. Jordan Larsson and Kôzuki are the 2 options for next season. Sidi Sané might get the place instead of Kôzuki.
LW
Skarke is my first option when he's fit, then Adli. Bülter hasn't performed although I like his attributes.
Either Kôzuki or Sané can be part of the squad as LW so they don't have to fight for the spot on the right, even Larsson could be retrained, but I need a starter, likely left-footed but depends on who's available. If we can't find anyone better, Bülter will stay. I'll loan Buczkowski so he can get more playing time.
ST
Polter, Frey and Keke have been diving the minutes. Terodde has been out of the rotation as he hasn't performed when given the chance. I have also played Adli here when I played 2 upfront to give the team some pace near the more static options.
Polter, Pieringer and Topp are my choices. Dörr might be loaned out or stay with the team depending on eventual offers we receive for Polter. Larsson will be the player to use when I need the pace upfront.
SUMMARY
SK RB CB LB DM CM CAM RW LW ST 1 Starter Mehmet Aydin Leo Greiml Thomas Ouwejan Florian Flick Rodrigo Zalazar Kenan Karaman Jordan Larsson 1 Starter LF Sebastian Polter Justin Heekeren Cédric Brunner 1 Starter LCB Kerim Çalhanoğlu Niklas Tauer Can Bozdogan Assan Ouédraogo Sôichirô Kôzuki Sidi Sané Marvin Pieringer Luca Podlech Henning Matriciani Vitalie Becker Mattes Hansen Edion Gashi Keke Topp Ibrahima Cissé Nedzhib Hadzha The squad for next season should look something like this.
In the squad planner:
[Don't mind the roles - that's why Karaman and Larsson are on such low star ratings]
Some doubts:
Do I need a starter as RB and even LB?
Do I need a better backup CB?
Do I find a replacement for Karaman as CAM?
If Polter leaves, do I try to find a starter ST? Even before that, do I force Polter to leave?
Most of these doubts will be answered when I have budgets available and when I know what players are interested in joining us next season. Despite that, if I can secure some end-of-contract signings that add quality to the team (without a massive impact on the budget), I'll deal with the surplus after.
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13 horas atrás, warlock disse:
Tactical masterclass
Thanks! Takes a lot of time to micro-manage, but I felt this was the only way I was going to be successful at Schalke in this first season.
SQUAD
An overview of the squad and what do I need for next season
SK RB CB LB DM CM CAM RW LW ST Alexander Schwolow Sepp van den Berg Moritz Jenz Thomas Ouwejan Alex Král Rodrigo Zalazar Michaël Frey Sôichirô Kôzuki Amine Adli Sebastian Polter Michael Langer Cédric Brunner Leo Greiml Jere Uronen Tom Krauß Mousa Dembélé Assan Ouédraogo Tim Skarke Marius Bülter Keke Topp Luca Podlech Taylan Bulut Éder Balanta Niklas Tauer Kenan Karaman Dominick Drexler Tobias Mohr Simon Terodde Maya Yoshida Marcin Kamiński Nedzhib Hadzha In light blue background are the players on loan; in light red the players with contract expiring this season; light grey are just the youngsters already training with the squad. In each position players are ordered in minutes played.
In summary, we have 31 players around the senior squad, 16 most likely won't be here next season. What a mess!
SK
Only Schwolow played. The drop in quality is big and we are only in one competition. I expect Luca to develop, but maybe he needs one more season until he is a decent backup. Langer is 37 it's very likely I won't renew unless his wage demands are really low.
This is every option I have available, Heekeren is rated close to Schwolow but he's not really that close. I will need a starter next season. Heekeren might be the sub GK. Yusufu and Podlech will probably be loaned out for playing time.
RB
I have been rotating between Sepp and Cédric. They aren't massive talents, but good enough right now. As RWB I have played Kozuki (in the winger section)
This is one of the positions where I'm most comfortable. Not that we have immense quality, but Brunner is decent, Bulut is already decent to be a backup and we still have Aydin on loan.
[Note: we have some more players but not interesting]
LB
Thomas is my first choice when we play 4 atb; as WB I have been selecting Skarke (included in the winger section). He's not left-footed, so not the option I would favor but he's faster. I should probably give Mohr a chance as LWB.
Next year, we will have Thomas and Kerim (whom I know from the Marseille save). Becker will probably be involved (in fact, he should be involved still this season).
CB
Jenz, Greiml and Balanta have been my 3 top choices; Sepp, Brunner and Tauer have also played this position. Next year I will only have Greiml and the youngster Hadzha (he's on an expiring contract but it should be renewed any time). Kaminsky hasn't played as he had a long-term injury.
Matriciani and Cissé might help as backups, Flick is a natural DM, but he can be valuable as a CB option. Greiml will be a starter next season, but I think I should look for another starter. A left-footed one in this case. We have plenty of potential here. Mfundu, Boboy, Barthel, Heitzmann and Aliu will be loaned out next season.
DM/CM
Kral was my first option until he was injured, then Krauss started playing and I like him as well. As a CM, Zalazar is my no.1 choice, Dembélé is retiring in January, so probably I will play Ouédraogo there when I need or even Drexler (included in the winger section).
Tauer is on loan but it's a 2-year one so I can count on him. Flick will be my other option as DM. Zalazar will keep his place and Bozdogan will be the second option as CM. Mattes Hansen will renew and might be around the squad. Ouédraogo will be an option as CAM.
I will continue later.
1 -
NOVEMBER
MATCHES
vs Bremen (A)
It wasn't a great match, but we got a point that helped us.
vs Mainz (H)
Basically the same, but against a weaker opposition, so we had way more of the ball, but couldn't create much danger.
vs Bayern (H)
This was the biggest challenge, although they had a game 2 days before so they were a bit tired.
They started in a 4-2-3-1 so I answered with a 4-3-3. FBs as FB-S; DM as DM-D; CMs as BWM-S on Kimmich's side and RPM on Goretzka's side; wingers as IW-A. Then I wasn't getting much movement upfront and changed my RPM to MEZ-A and same side winger from IW-A to W-A.
We scored! 1-0!
They change to a 4-2-2-2 without wingers, so Sané and Muller behind the strikers. I had to respond with a tactical switch so: 5-4-1. FBs with instructions to mark RCAM and LCAM zones; wingers with instructions to man-mark their FBs; CMs back to BWM-S. Then we were getting pressed too much so changed both FB-S to FB-A and both wingers first to WP-A.
Penalty for us. Goal! 2-0!
They kept pressing us, but we were in comfortable in our low block and 3-0!
I have to say, it's a bit tiring having to play in "full match", but it has been worth it. Our target for the season is 35 points, we have 20 in 15 matches. That means we need 15 in 19 now.
SQUAD
Just a small consideration about the squad. We have too many players on loan and we can't terminate their loans unless the player is injured. As soon as we have the relegation battle off the table when any of those players is injured, I'll seriously think about terminating the loan.
In the meantime, we don't play in December, so I'll take the time to carefully plan the winter transfer window. I'll try to sell some players and if I can, I'll try to arrange transfers for next season. Big focus on players ending their contracts.
3 -
I just played the other 2 games of the month.
Yes, it's getting better!
vs HERTHA (A)
I was thinking of maintaining the 4-4-2 as a basis, but after watching the games against Stuttgart and Wolfsburg, I decided to stick with the previous formation: 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1. I changed some roles, started the match, and maybe we were lucky and they had a player sent off in the 10th minute. I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, but playing against 10 is never easy for me. Despite that, it allowed us to be more attacking, and push our FBs forward and we eventually found the winner.
The idea for the formation was something like this:
It wasn't tested as the sending-off changed the game completely.
Even with one more player, we didn't have more possession than them and didn't create a lot of chances.
We had 2 goals disallowed for offside, but eventually, the youngster Keke Topp scored an allowed goal.
vs FREIBURG (H)
This was the best result of the season so far and one of the best games we played. They were fielding a 4-4-2 so, in my opinion, the natural opposite is 5-2-3. In this case, I opted for the 3 upfront to be 2 CAM and 1 ST. I asked the CAMs to man-mark their FBs. Once again fielded 2 BWMs. I'm really enjoying the 2 destroyers!
I doubted the composition of my defense: Libero + 2 CD or 2 BPD and a covering CD? I started with the first. Then, noticed my Libero was moving into midfield and my CBs weren't closing the space. They kept the width of a back 3, while being just 2. So I changed it to the second option, and it turned out to be safer.
As I kept some instructions from the other formations and I didn't have much experience with playing this bottom-heavy formations, I noticed we were rushing everything and could never keep the ball. 15 minutes in, we had around 35% of the ball. So I tweaked some instructions and ended up with this:
Playing out of defense, slowing the pace down and holding shape made a big difference. And they make sense in a bottom-heavy team. I'm taking notes for other matches!
7,34 rating, with much help from the 3 uptop: Adli, Ouédraogo and Frey. I've been changing personnel a lot more than my usual to fit the specifics of what I need.
2 assists for the youngsters Ouédraogo, I'm very happy with him.
It's clear that we need some better players, mainly faster ones upfront and on the wings (both FB/WB and Wingers).
Otherwise, I'm really happy with my choices for the CDM position. Kral, Krauss, Zalazar, Tauer and Dembélé give me different options. Too bad only Zalazar will be in the squad next season.
I have numbers in the CB position but it's also a position where I want more quality.
LEAGUE TABLE
NEXT MONTH
A short month with only 3 games:
Werder Bremen (A), 11th, 5-3-2 DM WB
Mainz (H), 8th, 5-3-2 DM WB
Bayern (H), 3rd, 4-2-3-1 DM Wide / 4-2-2-2 DM AM Narrow
2 -
MID-OCTOBER
MATCHES
I haven't played the whole month, because there have been some developments...
vs AUGSBURG (H)
We lost 0-1. They had 750 passes! And although they created no clear-cut chance, I was fuming with this match. Average rating: 6.58...
vs LEVERKUSEN (A)
It was not a match where I expected much, but at least I wanted a decent performance. Check the average rating: 6.57! Once again, no clear-cut chance for them, but 0.16 xG for us, shows we were barely in the game.
Now I was on a 4-game losing streak and a draw before that. Against 3 of those 5, we should have won, if we are serious about being in this league.
It got me thinking about the tactic, but it doesn't seem that flawed. Players? They aren't great, but at level with some of the teams we faced, so that wasn't it.
This is probably part of the problem. Not all of it, but a part. So I changed training. Everything that increases happiness and team cohesion we are doing it. I don't care about player evolution right now. Tactic familiarity isn't that bad as we were focusing on that prior to this.
But still, it wasn't enough to change things right now. Then, I looked at some of the previous matches in more detail (comprehensive highlights) and I was reminded of something important: I wasn't paying attention to the opposition. I got so used to being the dominant team in Marseille that I could just play my tactic, plan the squad around it and don't make any changes regarding who I was facing. I needed to get back on the drawing board and really watch the games.
Next game: 5th-placed Hoffenheim. They play a 5-2-2-1 DM AM.
It was time to re-watch the matches against Augsburg and Bochum. They also play in this formation. Key points: Track the movement of the WBs; track the AMs; press the DMs; leave the CBs. My decision: 4-4-2 DM to start. My wingers man mark their WBs, my FBs mark RCAM and LCAM positions. I don't want my FBs man-marking specifically as they would be moved out of position easily and possibly leave too much space out wide (in case my wingers failed to stop their WBs, this would be suicidal), I just wanted them to be close to those positions if the ball came that way.
This is what it looked like [I doesn't FM have a Team A with ball vs Team B without ball screen ?]:
The game started and I noticed their DMs had too much space, and our midfielders had to run to meet them, so new change: DMs to CMs. This would destroy the 6v3 "box" near our penalty area, but I'm more comfortable this way.
We had a great match. To give you some examples: in the match against Augsburg we had 16 dribbles; in this one, we had 23; Key passes: 6 vs Augsburg; 14 vs Hoffenheim.
We had more shots and shots on target; their xG reduced to 0.25; more passes completed; way more headers won; more progressive passes and final third passes. Average rating: 6.95. Now that's way better.
The final score, you ask: 0-0... I'm not disappointed. They are 5th and projected to be 7th. Right now we are 14th and are predicted to be 16th. If we keep playing like this, we will get the results we need. It'll demand more from me on matchday and in the matchday preparation, but I'm up for it. It'll just take more time between updates.
The final tactic was this:
This will be my starting formation against other teams who play in a 5-2-2-1 formation. The next game is against Hertha who have played 4-3-3 in every single match. I'll study the Stuttgart and Wolfsburg game, but at least I think I can use a big part of this formation, I just have to tweak the marking and I'm thinking about switching one of my strikers to PF-D so he can mark their DM.
1 -
SEPTEMBER
MATCHES
We wanted 6 points but only got 1... Embarrassing stuff.
We are still 10th so globally it doesn't seem too bad, but we've already played against the last 3.
vs STUTTGART (A)
An uneventful match, neither team deserved to win.
vs BOCHUM (H)
This one we clearly deserved better, but we let them create the better chances and they scored. Polter was out with an injury and he'll be out for some time.
vs DORTMUND
They were better, but we still managed to create 2 CCC and 3 HC. This time we were without Starke. Our 2 best players on average rating out, it made it even more difficult.
Now we have 2 weeks until the next game, so we should be able to recover both players.
Next matches:
15th (H), 13th (A), 6th (H), 12th (A), 2nd (H). Augsburg is the game where we have the best odds. Then we have to do our best, especially in the home games. Anything over 1 point per game is a win right now.
1 -
46 minutos atrás, _Ben_ disse:
I always enjoy your spreadsheet work but can't quite get my head around what you've calculated here!?
First I took the attributes that compose the octagon on the comparison screen. Then, I tried to calculate a value for each position/role (only the ones I use) using the octagon attributes. Getting every rating for each player, I can have a unique value for their BPR (best position rating).
I also have the monthly expenses (ME) calculated as wage + 4x appearance fee. It's not exact but close enough for me.
In this sheet, I calculate the z-score (basically, the amount of standard deviations away from the average) for monthly expenses and BPR. Then, I expected a linear correlation between how good a player is and how much he makes, so I took the slope value and calculated the expected value of monthly expenses (ME^). After, it's just the difference between the ME^ and the real ME and the absolute (don't know if this is the exact name for it, but I want an always positive value) relative difference between both.
This is an example:
Name Age Monthly Expenses BPR Z-Age Z-BPR Z-M.E. Z-ME^ ME^ Dif ME^,ME Abs Dif % Mousa Dembélé 35 36 500,00 € 69 1,76 2,28 -0,81 1,56 163 519,72 € 127 019,72 € 348% I also have age here, but I don't actually use it.
In the case of this team, the slope is 0.686. So, For a player with a z-score BPR of 1.00, I would expect a Z-M-E. of 0.686. Which considering the average (around 80k) and st.dev. (around 54k) of monthly expenses would mean a value of monthly expenses of around 116k.
This is calculated for the top-35 players in my squads (no loaned-out players).
When I want to check the overpaid or underpaid players, I filter for bottom-10 or top-10 in difference.
I also use this to check the players I want to buy and see if their wages are compatible with what I have in my team.
Hope this somehow makes sense. But feel free to ask any questions.
0 -
A more in-depth look into my squad:
My spreadsheet gives me the following 22-man squad:
SK RB CB LB DM VOL CAM W IW ST Alexander Schwolow Niklas Tauer Éder Balanta Mousa Dembélé Alex Král Rodrigo Zalazar Michaël Frey Amine Adli Marius Bülter Simon Terodde Luca Podlech Sepp van den Berg Moritz Jenz Jere Uronen Tom Krauß Thomas Ouwejan Kenan Karaman Dominick Drexler Tim Skarke Sebastian Polter Maya Yoshida Leo Greiml With some adaptations to better fit my judgement (and adding the youngsters):
SK RB CB LB DM VOL CAM W IW ST Alexander Schwolow Sepp van den Berg Éder Balanta Thomas Ouwejan Alex Král Rodrigo Zalazar Michaël Frey Amine Adli Marius Bülter Simon Terodde Luca Podlech Cédric Brunner Moritz Jenz Jere Uronen Tom Krauß Mousa Dembélé Kenan Karaman Sôichirô Kôzuki Tim Skarke Sebastian Polter Maya Yoshida Niklas Tauer Assan Ouédraogo Dominick Drexler Keke Topp Leo Greiml Nedzhib Hadzha Which in turn leads to the matrix:
Name Position Ability Pot. Red Flag Solid Prof. Trusted Prof. Key Player Emerging Star Empowered Alexander Schwolow 1 GK 63 63 1 0 0 0 0 0 Luca Podlech 1 GK 57 68 0 0 1 0 0 0 Sepp van den Berg 2 D (R) 63 69 0 0 1 0 0 0 Cédric Brunner 2 D (R) 61 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 Thomas Ouwejan 3 D (L) 62 62 1 0 0 0 0 0 Jere Uronen 3 D (L) 61 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 Éder Balanta 4 D (C) 68 68 0 0 0 0 0 1 Moritz Jenz 4 D (C) 65 65 0 0 0 1 0 0 Maya Yoshida 4 D (C) 64 64 1 0 0 0 0 0 Leo Greiml 4 D (C) 64 67 0 0 1 0 0 0 Alex Král 5 DM 66 66 0 0 0 1 0 0 Tom Krauß 5 DM 64 68 0 0 0 0 1 0 Rodrigo Zalazar 6 M (C) 66 66 0 0 0 1 0 0 Mousa Dembélé 6 M (C) 69 69 0 0 0 0 0 1 Michaël Frey 7 AM (C) 64 64 0 0 0 1 0 0 Kenan Karaman 7 AM (C) 63 63 1 0 0 0 0 0 Amine Adli 8 M (R) 64 66 0 0 0 1 0 0 Sôichirô Kôzuki 8 M (R) 61 64 0 1 0 0 0 0 Marius Bülter 8 M (L) 64 64 0 0 0 1 0 0 Tim Skarke 8 M (L) 62 62 1 0 0 0 0 0 Simon Terodde 9 ST (C) 65 65 0 0 0 1 0 0 Sebastian Polter 9 ST (C) 65 65 0 0 0 1 0 0 We have 7 red flags [players with low ability and low potential] and only 2 empowered (one is on loan and the other is retiring). Our only emerging star [mid ability/high potential] is also on loan. Our youngsters are still in the trusted professional phase [low ability/high potential].
And on the Risk/Impact Analysis:
Name Risk/Prob Impact/Sub RI Score Alexander Schwolow 3 3 100 Luca Podlech 1 1 0 Sepp van den Berg 3 1 50 Cédric Brunner 2 1 25 Thomas Ouwejan 1 3 50 Jere Uronen 3 1 50 Éder Balanta 3 2 75 Moritz Jenz 3 2 75 Maya Yoshida 3 1 50 Leo Greiml 1 1 0 Alex Král 3 3 100 Tom Krauß 3 1 50 Rodrigo Zalazar 1 2 25 Mousa Dembélé 3 1 50 Michaël Frey 3 1 50 Kenan Karaman 1 1 0 Amine Adli 3 1 50 Sôichirô Kôzuki 2 1 25 Marius Bülter 3 2 75 Tim Skarke 3 1 50 Simon Terodde 3 1 50 Sebastian Polter 1 1 0 Risk: 3 - on loan or contract ends this season; 2 - there's interest in him; other situations
Impact: 3 - replacement is far from the same level; 2 - replacement is a bit worse; 1 - replacement is on level
RI Score is just adding Risk and Impact and scaling on 0-100.
The rebuilding will be difficult. First, we need to be sure we are staying in the first tier, then we need to make the best of the next summer window: players ending their contracts, players with low release clauses, loans,...
I will also have to develop the youngsters. These are the highest potential ones. Some of them are already involved with the squad, others are on loan, and Tchibara is a future transfer that was already arranged.
Name Best Pos (A.M.) Personality Age Best Position Positions BPR Pot BPR Assan Ouédraogo M (R) Resolute 16 WF FB DM WF 58 70 Taylan Bulut D (R) Resolute 16 FB FB DM CM WF ST 57 69 Nedzhib Hadzha D (C) Balanced 17 CB CB 58 69 Niklas Dörr ST (C) Fairly Determined 16 ST ST 56 69 Keke Topp ST (C) Balanced 18 ST ST 60 69 Zaid Amoussou-Tchibara ST (C) Balanced 16 ST ST 56 68 Sidi Sané AM (L) Fairly Sporting 19 ST FB ST 61 68 Luca Podlech GK Resolute 17 GK GK 57 68 Vitalie Becker D (L) Model Citizen 17 FB FB WF ST 57 68 Semin Kojic ST (C) Balanced 17 ST ST 57 67 Niklas Barthel D (C) Light-Hearted 17 CB CB 56 67 There are plenty of strikers, some might have to play in other positions or we will have to cash in on them. A whole defense as well, so we just need some midfielders.
1 -
AUGUST
END OF TRANSFER WINDOW
We managed to sell Latza. Köln again... This time they are helping us.
Adli comes in to give us more pace to the wings or even as SS.
This is the state of the league when it comes to wages:
We are spending a lot when compared to the quality we have. Next season, we'll need to clean this up. However, we made some progress as we started with 3.2M/month. We are down around 500k, which amounts to over 6M/year when considering bonuses.
Summing up:
OUT
IN
WAGES
Based on my spreadsheet, the most flagrant negative divergences are some of the most experienced players.
Name Age Monthly Expenses BPR ME^ Dif ME^,ME Abs Dif % Simon Terodde 34 171 000,00 € 65 119 475,42 € -51 524,58 € 30% Sebastian Polter 31 148 000,00 € 65 118 767,04 € -29 232,96 € 20% Marius Bülter 29 133 000,00 € 64 108 141,41 € -24 858,59 € 19% Maya Yoshida 34 188 000,00 € 64 99 349,21 € -88 650,79 € 47% Dominick Drexler 32 133 000,00 € 63 94 131,31 € -38 868,69 € 29% Alexander Schwolow 30 173 000,00 € 63 86 568,14 € -86 431,86 € 50% Marcin Kamiński 30 117 900,00 € 62 83 014,90 € -34 885,10 € 30% Jere Uronen 28 93 400,00 € 61 70 991,03 € -22 408,97 € 24% Cédric Brunner 28 98 200,00 € 61 64 408,52 € -33 791,48 € 34% Tobias Mohr 27 92 200,00 € 59 38 784,98 € -53 415,02 € 58% Schwolow and Uronen are on loan so they are problems that are naturally solved; Yoshida, Kaminski, Terodde and Drexler end their contracts this season, so they are also easy to solve; Polter is a starter, so it isn't a big problem; Bülter's difference is the lowest, so I'm not too concerned. Brunner and Mohr will probably have to be sold next season when we find good alternatives for them.
All these exits mean we will have many vacant spaces. I'm hoping there's some evolution in our youngsters and they can fill the spots.
MATCHES
I've talked about the Köln match already
vs GLADBACH (H)
We were a bit better, but it was another through ball that allowed Thuram to score. "Drop More" was activated after it. I've also made some changes to the tactic as I feel I was being too optimistic when facing better teams. I'll go through the changes after all the matches.
vs WOLFSBURG (A)
We were a bit lucky with the sending-off. Sad that we couldn't do more with one more player on the field.
vs UNION BERLIN (H)
Our best game, even with a man down we managed to control and even score 2 goals.
Next matches:
Only 3 games next month, but important ones. We need to beat Bochum as they are predicted to finish last in the league; the rivalry with Dortmund turns this game into an important one, although we are clearly not on the same level; Stuttgart hasn't won yet this season, so we have to pounce on their bad form. 6 points from 9 would be great.
TACTICS
Our starting point
And a more toned-down approach. The SS moves away from the ball, the VOL-A moves away from defense, and in some games, we need the opposite, so VOL-S so he roams, but doesn't venture so much; AP-A so he's aggressive but close to team-mates and the ball. I've also reduced the width to keep the team more compact.
0 -
This was the first league game of the season... Not going well.
But I decided to get another CB to help my defense. Although we still have too many players, I need to increase in quality. Van Hecke is available on loan, Brighton only wants wages paid, which is great!
Köln you are creating an enemy...
After analyzing our conceded goals, decided to move to a balanced mentality, but couldn't see the need for a change in tactics. It was a set-piece, then a big mistake by our GK, then a pacey forward getting a ball into space. Maybe "Drop More" is added if I find my players could do with a step back, but moving to "balanced" might mitigate that problem.
2
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[FM23] Schalke 04 - Can Jens Mustermann turn it around?
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The first one I know and always keep that in mind. The second one I didn't know, but I'll save that for the future.