jamescrews1 Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 argentina to win the world cup paddy power 11/2 max bet is only £20 though Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnterUsernameHere Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 Yeah got on that earlier. You can get 5/1 elsewhere so it's not a great enhancement by their standards but would be putting over £20 on Argentina anyway so it'll mean an extra £10 potential winnings... Ladbrokes refusing all losing World Cup winner bets by the way if Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi or Suárez finish top goalscorer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 Using the thread I made "How do you think the groups will pan out?" I added up points to each of the teams and put the most popular selections from that thread into some group bets. Ivory Coast and Japan were the only teams tied for 2nd spot (2pts for 1st and 1pt for 2nd). Here's the first two bets (straight group forecasts and a dual forecast - 2 x £1 lines on each due to Ivory Coast and Japan drawing). And then the next two I took the top team for each group and doubled them with the 2nd and 3rd most popular teams to do some straight forecasts and dual forecasts (except the final two groups which were the most clear cut because Bet365 only let you make 14 selections on your slip). These are both 64 x 10p permutations (£6.40 per bet) The winnings are the minimum possible per bet going by the lowest odds for each group selection. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hilly_boro Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Great analysis gills Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
av3ry Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 My guess on the group winners on that thread is 300/1 btw. Although, I'm starting to think I've badly underestimated Colombia. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pukey Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Using the thread I made "How do you think the groups will pan out?" I added up points to each of the teams and put the most popular selections from that thread into some group bets.Ivory Coast and Japan were the only teams tied for 2nd spot (2pts for 1st and 1pt for 2nd). Here's the first two bets (straight group forecasts and a dual forecast - 2 x £1 lines on each due to Ivory Coast and Japan drawing). And then the next two I took the top team for each group and doubled them with the 2nd and 3rd most popular teams to do some straight forecasts and dual forecasts (except the final two groups which were the most clear cut because Bet365 only let you make 14 selections on your slip). These are both 64 x 10p permutations (£6.40 per bet) The winnings are the minimum possible per bet going by the lowest odds for each group selection. You used us In seriousness, that's a good effort, that. Hope it doesn't go tits up with some randomer like Iran winning the group Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 I did use you guys, I'm sorry. As a consolation here is the selection rundown (out of 48pts I believe) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey). It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place. What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc). Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1 So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Readingfanman Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 What do people think of Benzema at 33/1. I think playing Ecuador and Honduras, he has the right set up to get out of the group giving him those important additional games. I know he's been a let down in the past however! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
av3ry Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Australia, Costa Rica and Honduras to all get 0 points is 20/1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Really wheres that? That's massive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 ironically I was going to bet on Costa Rica to get 1 point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryano Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Was bored at work last night so flicked through the team specials and here's a few i've picked out: Croatia to concede over 4.5 goals @ 11/10 Iran to get 0 points @ 11/4 South Korea to qualify from group stages @ 9/5 Honduras to concede over 5.5 goals @ 10/11 Ghana to concede over 4.5 goals @ 4/6 Will add a few in the near future. Trying to get a bet for each group going and combine them in various permutations. If I needed to pick a best bet from them it would be Iran to score 0 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
av3ry Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Really wheres that? That's massive. I got it on Bet 365, you can also get it on betVictor apparently aswell. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelBrown Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Provide a link for the bet? I can't see it anywhere Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
av3ry Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Team Exact Group points under the World Cup heading and choose 0 for Australia, Costa Rica and Honduras. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamescrews1 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Messi to be top Argentina goalscorer, Neymar to be top Brazil goalscorer, Rooney to be top England goalscorer 21/1 at paddy Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hilly_boro Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey).It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place. What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc). Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1 So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this: Just to let you know gills, I tried this today and I've trebled my stake through 16 lines. Very impressed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 Nice one mate, pleased for you Let me know if you do any more. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Team Exact Group points under the World Cup heading and choose 0 for Australia, Costa Rica and Honduras. another one- Costa Rica, Australia and Honduras NOT to score in the world cup. Treble 86/1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggaeBwoy Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Spain to beat Holland at 2.00 on skybet is a very good price. Will be a good game but can only see one winner. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamescrews1 Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 paddy doing Place a €/£10 bet on the World Cup Outright Winner market and get a €/£5 free bet on the first game of the tournament - Brazil v Croatia and also this Place a €/£20 bet on a player in the World Cup Top Goalscorer market and get a €/£5 free bet every time he scores. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 25, 2014 Author Share Posted May 25, 2014 another one- Costa Rica, Australia and Honduras NOT to score in the world cup. Treble 86/1Is this on 365? If so where? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STaphouse Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Dzeko, Fred, Sturridge, RVP and C.Ronaldo to be their teams top scorers is 110/1. That's crazy good odds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnterUsernameHere Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 About 155/1 with Coral if you want even better odds, but I like the look of that Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopra_hill Posted May 26, 2014 Share Posted May 26, 2014 I will be trying that at some point during the WC Gills Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 26, 2014 Share Posted May 26, 2014 I might try a straight forecast combo. Because there's always maybe 1 or two upsets. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty206 Posted May 26, 2014 Share Posted May 26, 2014 Not sure if it's been posted but Paddypower are doing a top goalscorer offer. Place a £20 bet on the top goal scorer market and they will give you a £5 freebet everytime he scores. I've gone Lukaku at 25/1. Looking at Belgium's group I think he will get a few. (Scored a hat trick tonight in a friendly too) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnterUsernameHere Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...) Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...) Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year Got £136 on so far on various different things. Again, probably nowhere near finished. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasilli07 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Also whilst here this is a method I've been using a fair bit over the last couple of seasons. I came up with it myself and call it the Minnow Method (cheesy as **** but hey).It relies on the team you choose ONLY having to score a single goal to keep you in the bet but with bigger rewards should things all fall into place. What you do is you choose a team to win and also select Both Teams To Score (Yes) from the same game. This gives you two selections that cannot be combined, so you do this on another match aswell. Two matches will give you 4 combinations of doubles (4 lines), each game you add selections for will double that (3 games = 8 lines, 4 games = 16 lines and so on). Now where you have combined your team to win and also both teams to score (yes) you only need your team to score a goal because if they do they're either going to win 1-0 or the other team will score and BTTS will have won. If your team wins and BTTS happens (i.e. 2-1, 3-2, 3-1 or whatever) then you double the amount of lines you win (2 for one match, 4 for two, 8 for 3 etc). Using this way you can get some high odds accumulators come off, think this was my best last season and the season before the best was 1182/1 So if you wanted to place a £10 total bet on three games your slip would look something like this: Do I need to bet on selection with odds over $2 for it to work? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 No you don't have to but it's not economically wise to bet odds under 2.0, you'd be better off doubling the stake per line and skipping the game if both selections are under 2.0. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorando Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Spain to beat Holland at 2.00 on skybet is a very good price. Will be a good game but can only see one winner. yep thats a good bet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...) Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year I've bet £2 so far. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lermon Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 I've found out Betfred! is doing a fantasy football?! Is any other bookies doing one? I did one one year via bluesq and that was quite good. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottMac Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 How much are people betting on World Cup antepost markets? Got about £150 worth on already and I'm nowhere near finished Although a lot of that is from free bets to be fair (bet on CL final and get a WC outright free bet for example...) Edit: And yeah, part of that is on the offer you said there scotty. Just went for Messi top scorer though, it's his year Think I'm around the £250 mark but that's me more or less done unless anything comes up nearer the time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emersonlfc Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 I'm around the £150 mark. More or less finished and now just setting aside for the tournament itself. Edit : My two main bets are Messi for Top Goalscorer and Argentina to win. Pretty much all of the above money is on them two via various offers. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnterUsernameHere Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Yeah most of my money is on the same two bets via various offers Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pago Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Yeah I'm on messi via paddy power. Saw a slightly worrying stat on twitter the other day: messi has scored the same amount of World Cup goals as Gary breen... Must be his year this time surely?! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShyBaldBuddhist Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 I'm around the £150 mark too. Been adding a tenner bet here and there if I have a decent win and it just mounts up. Also on Messi and the Argies but also got a few accumulator bets on group games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pukey Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Yeah I'm on messi via paddy power. Saw a slightly worrying stat on twitter the other day: messi has scored the same amount of World Cup goals as Gary breen... Must be his year this time surely?! 2006 he was a benchwarmer, 2010 Maradona was in charge (and Messi still played brilliantly, was ridiculously unlucky not to score iirc.) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Philip Rolfe Posted May 30, 2014 Administrators Share Posted May 30, 2014 Been looking at tournament top scorers bets, have to say I like Josip Drmic generally available around 100/1. Switzerland don't have the hardest group and should get into the last sixteen so he gets at least four matches, including Ecuador and Honduras. They have a chance of a favourable R2 match by avoiding Argentina and at that point he gets a 5th match; anything beyond that is dreamworld stuff for Switzerland though. He's obviously their guy, scored again tonight, 3 in 6 caps so far and obviously off a fine club season. Could even end up on penalties if he's lucky. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
daylight Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Not much of a betting guy these days but I think I will have a couple of Euros on Thomas Muller to be top goalscorer and Germany to win the WC. It is almost a 200/1 double, not bad for a team that is bound to do well and a player with an eye for goal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasilli07 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Fred as Golden Boot Winner @ $23 He was last year confederations cup top scorer(finished 2nd because he took more mins to score). If Brazil go far in the tournament, I could see him scoring 5-6 goals which should be enough for him to win the top scorer award again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyndlegs Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Been looking at tournament top scorers bets, have to say I like Josip Drmic generally available around 100/1. Switzerland don't have the hardest group and should get into the last sixteen so he gets at least four matches, including Ecuador and Honduras. They have a chance of a favourable R2 match by avoiding Argentina and at that point he gets a 5th match; anything beyond that is dreamworld stuff for Switzerland though. He's obviously their guy, scored again tonight, 3 in 6 caps so far and obviously off a fine club season. Could even end up on penalties if he's lucky. Good shout have heard him mentioned a few times as an outsider, he's 160.00 on betfair which looks very generous!! Are you still keeping a log of potential penalty takers from various nations as I know you did for one of the previous tounraments ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShyBaldBuddhist Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I think the issue with Drmic being top scorer is the fact the Swiss don't really score that many. Difficult to see him getting the 6 goals it generally takes to win the golden boot The 5/2 on offer for him to be top Swiss scorer looks tempting though. edit: In fact he is 7/2 most places. I was on 365 at the time so the only place I was checking the price out. Definitely worth a punt at that price I think Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Philip Rolfe Posted May 31, 2014 Administrators Share Posted May 31, 2014 Could argue they haven't had a striker of his quality in a while though, and when Frei was around and at his peak he didn't have the same strength of supporting cast as Drmic will have here. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccircle Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 @Gillsminnow - I've tried that method you described above and waiting on Belgium v Sweden tonight. Have Belgium and BTTS to win so basically if Belgium score I win something. How far have you gone with this in terms of the number of matches - mine is a treble Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillsminnow Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 another one- Costa Rica, Australia and Honduras NOT to score in the world cup. Treble 86/1 Just had a tenner on this at 199/1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamescrews1 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Just had a tenner on this at 199/1 where u get that bet? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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