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Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment


shaunvamos
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March 2039

 

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For the second straight year, we've knocked out the defending champs in the Champions League!

 

 

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Arsenal. As low as 14th 3 seasons ago, and currently 10th. Time to strike while the iron is hot.

 

 

 

National Team

 

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A decent start to our Euros qualifiers.

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What a chaotic final. Three penalties, including a 93rd minute equaliser after being 4-2 down with 6 minutes to go. 2 more goals in extra time, and Austria is now complete :D 

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Matías Paba  -  Wenqiang Li  -  Darko Vodeb

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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All Time Best XI Update

 

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We have 5 St Polten players in the all time Best Squad, the same as NAC Breda 3 of which won the Champions League. Our midfield pairing was the best we've had so far by a long shot, pushing out players I thought would never be pushed. 

 

 

 

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St Polten are the second best team out of all of them, and that was done without re-training players. They're also the youngest since US Grosseto, and the second youngest overall.

 

 

This thread will be going on hiatus as I look to create some new metrics, some kind of way to combine in game performance and expected ability using the attribute analysis. I'll do my best to have one last crack at this with a new nation before FM23, it just depends on how quickly these metrics develop. It'll also serve as the Beta test for what I'll be doing in FM23. There will be new rules in place too....

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22 hours ago, Punch said:

What a crazy game!

Congrats on completing another chapter. :applause:

 

Whats next?

 

18 hours ago, zethani said:

The wildest win by far.

Congratulations, and hope for a chapter X to round (and wrap) up everything 

 

Thanks guys :D 

 

In terms of what's next @Punch I'm going to run some data analysis using stats from that last season I've just done, figuring out what stats contribute the most to average rating for keepers and outfield players, then hopefully use that to create some new metrics, combine it with my already developed attribute formulas and see if that can help recruit consistent performers that are also viewed as good players. There will be a few changes to the signing rules as well, but the U23 policy will still stay I think.

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Genuinely an unbelievable final, to top off an unbelievable save, to top off an unbelievable thread - I only wish I had found it sooner! Congratulations on providing some of the best entertainment I've seen online in a long time. It's been a joy kicking off my day with your latest updates each morning.

There are a couple of nations you completed that I've not read through so will be catching up on those while you take your time off, but really looking forward to seeing what you manage to come up with next. Congrats again!

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On 15/09/2022 at 13:53, Vakama2619 said:

Congrats on the completion of Austria, that CL final was crazy

 

On 15/09/2022 at 18:53, Whalix said:

Genuinely an unbelievable final, to top off an unbelievable save, to top off an unbelievable thread - I only wish I had found it sooner! Congratulations on providing some of the best entertainment I've seen online in a long time. It's been a joy kicking off my day with your latest updates each morning.

There are a couple of nations you completed that I've not read through so will be catching up on those while you take your time off, but really looking forward to seeing what you manage to come up with next. Congrats again!

 

On 15/09/2022 at 20:09, robertpeet27 said:

Absolutely fantastic thread, gutted ive finally read through it all!! Congratulations on the success, epic and still not over 🙌🙌

 

On 16/09/2022 at 08:48, turgi said:

Congrats! Crazy final

 

On 16/09/2022 at 09:14, RoguPL said:

Congrats ! Can't Wait for the next chapter :D 

 

2 hours ago, ucdark said:

YES!!!!!!! Cheers! awesome thread

 

Thanks guys :D 

 

Turns out the break isn't going to be as long as I thought, the metrics were developed pretty quickly....

 

 

 

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Part X: New Country, New Rules, New Outlook

 

 

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Belgium, home of some of the most famous battles in recent history (think Waterloo, Ypres, the Battle of the Bulge). But there's a different kind of battle going on this time, one to be contested on a football field. 

Belgium have had one team make the final of a Champions League, Club Brugge in 1978. When I'm done with Belgium we're going to have at least one more CL final appearance, and one win.

 

Most teams in the lowest Belgian division have good facilities, but RFC Liege seem to have the most consistent level across the board, and the expectations aren't too high (predicted 4th). They've even won the Belgian Championship 5 times, with the last one coming in 1953, and the Belgian Cup once in 1990.

 

 

 

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This is purely an experiment for the next edition of FM, so I don't know how long this will go for. But it will keep going even after I win the Champions League.

Why?

Because every added league I could find has been loaded as non-playable, except the Power 5 (top division loaded and view-only below) and every playable division in neighbouring nations (Holland, France, Germany, Luxembourg). I'm just seeing how my laptop can handle it because in this save and for FM23 the save will continue from whatever year I complete the challenge, and the next highest nation in the UEFA coefficient will be made playable and the save will continue from there with the same conditions as above.

 

But there are more conditions, this time to do with signing players.

 

The reason why I've added whatever league I could find from reputable sources (Timo and Dave the Editor) is because I am available to sign players from anywhere now.

 

BUT.....

 

It's conditional upon our club's scouting rules.

 

Take Liege for example. 

 

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This means that I will only "buy" the data from players based in Belgium, filtered like this:

 

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Eventually we will be allowed to buy data on players based in Central Europe, then Europe, then the world.

 

I will be signing players based on a combination of some formulas I created to predict the expected Average Match Rating of a player in for the position they're expected to play and the attribute formula that's been the backbone of this entire thread. Only players with with an expected average rating above a certain threshold (7.00) will be considered and from there it will be based on their perceived ability according to the attribute formula. Only players that will be immediate contributors will be bought, as I look to get the youth more involved to increase their chances for development.

 

Oh, and one more rule (I think), this time related to tactics.

 

The tactic I will use for each match will be different. The instructions will be the standard Gegenpress instructions, but the formation will change according to what my data analysts think our opponents will be the most vulnerable to.

 

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This is how we can find out what they're vulnerable against.

 

The positions and roles I use will be the generic ones: Goalkeeper (Defend), Central Defender (Defend), Fullback (Support), Wing Back (Attack), Defensive Midfielder (Support), Central Midfielder (Support/Attack), Winger (Attack), Attacking Midfielder (Attack) and Advanced Forward (Attack).

 

 

Will it work? Let's find out how good data can be!

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2021 Preseason

 

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I'm pretty happy with this preseason, we've been dominating all the non-league opposition but were unable to break Wezel down in the cup.

 

 

 

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The top 4 qualify for the Promotion Playoff, and that's where we're expected to finish.

 

 

 

 

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We did our absolute best to lose the title early, but once the academy players stepped in to fill some gaps we picked it up, and we are promoted as champions in my first season. Is it as a result of exploiting the tactical weaknesses of our opponents? I think it's too early to say, as we were expected to finish top 3. We'll see how we go next season.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Benjamin Van der Ackerveken  -  Benjamin Lambot  -  Michaël Lallemand

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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  • shaunvamos changed the title to Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment

2022 Preseason

 

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We have recruited from below to strengthen our team, with everyone having an expected Average Rating of 7.00 or above in their respective positions last season after at least 14 games.

 

 

Central Defenders

 

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Fullback

 

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Central Midfielder

 

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Wingers

 

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Somehow not predicted last! Which is the aim, of course.

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November 2022-January 2023

 

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I grouped these months together because there wasn't much activity due to the World Cup, which was won by Spain, who defeated Italy in the final, whilst defending champions France finished 3rd.

 

 

 

Outs

 

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Despite playing decently for us Boseko was on a non-contract so he drops down two divisions to be in an unplayable league. Despite featuring prominently for us, a 2nd division side. Make it make sense!

 

 

 

Ins

 

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Replacing him is 3rd division winger Yani Van Den Bossche. I've already run into a problem regarding mid season recruitment, as many players didn't meet the criteria to be at an xAvRat of at least 7 due to the formulas taking into account season totals rather than stats/90 minutes. That's something for me to address when I do this in FM23, but that's why I'm trying this out now! 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

February 2023

 

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After what feels like forever, I'm finally back after overhauling my little algorithm which will hopefully not have to be changed too much when FM23 comes out. The spreadsheet template (which also took a long time) is also ready with hopefully not too many changes needed in a month.

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We snuck into 4th on the final day. With some new recruits maybe we could push for promotion?

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Michaël Lallemand  -  Gaël Kakudji  -  Andreas Burssens

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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2023 Preseason

 

Ins

 

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This window focused on our attack, as our defence seems to be set at this point, and anyone considered better didn't perform well enough on the field for us to consider signing them.

 

 

 

Central Midfielder

 

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Wide Midfielder

 

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Wingers

 

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Attacking Midfielder

 

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Unbeaten preseason, what I like to see!

 

 

 

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Low expectations, but I would like top 4 again.

 

 

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January-February 2024

 

Ins

 

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We find another player from the 4th division to boost our midfield.

 

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A couple of suspensions sees us drop games to Mouscron and Waasland-Beveren, but the win over Lierse gives us a little bit of daylight at the top.

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March 2024

 

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Three wins from three, and we're going to the top division as champions! With that comes all the perks...

 

 

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We can look for players based outside of Belgium for the first time :D 

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We go undefeated in our last 6 league games, and we try a new formation for our last game and celebrate the league win in style :cool:

 

 

 

Best XI

 

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Carlos Uhía  -  Gaël Kakudji  -  Andreas Burssens

 

 

 

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Record Breakers

 

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Award Winners

 

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Progress

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

As expected because of the author, this has been a wonderful thread! The idea of doing the same challenge multiple times with each one being in a new save completely changed the way I face FM. I also love the spreadsheet-making part of FM and you inspired me a lot in my personal FM adventures. Looking forward to see more from you in the new FM

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