Want to compile a list of factors that determine the match result

[SimonHoddle]

I complain a lot on here. Usually after a defeat. It’s partly sour grapes and partly IMO justified question marks of how the game plays out. It’s the not knowing why you’ve lost that really  hurts in FM.

IRL managers will complain they don’t understand defeats (eg arteta saying his team inexplicably didn’t play remotely as planned against Newcastle end of last season). But actually they do know, they just don’t want to reveal their weaknesses in press conferences etc. with the example above it was probably related to Arsenal crumbling in hostile environments. Not mentally strong enough. 

which is a quite long winded way of asking. What are the multiple factors that can create a bad performance. If I knew the factors I think I’d be less impatient to an inexplicable result.

obviously tactics, players, morale, form, team cohesion and condition are key factors. Weather,, interest from other clubs, home or away, rivalry, I know are also factored by FM.

What about distance travelled? International breaks (my team always seems to wobble afterwards), midweek European fixtures (again team always seems to play poorly after CL). Time of year? Does the World Cup distract? 
 

anything else I’m missing? Any suggestions gratefully received. 

[fc.cadoni]

Hidden attributes of players, like Pressure, Professionalism etc. Condition level another one. Attributes, especially Physical ones. 

[HUNT3R]

7 hours ago, SimonHoddle said:

which is a quite long winded way of asking. What are the multiple factors that can create a bad performance. If I knew the factors I think I’d be less impatient to an inexplicable result.

Sometimes upsets happen. Your striker had an off day or they scored from a 0.05 xG long shot (so 5% chance of going in) etc. so there are times where you are just unlucky. Other times, that long shot happens in the 5th minute, so there's plenty of time to turn things around in your favour.

The main factors are obviously the tactical setup on both sides and the players selected to play, on both sides. Player attributes are hugely important.

You could have a fantastic tactic that consistently creates good chances (giving you the advantage in the match every time) but it fails against a back 3.

Match management - Your starting tactic might even be great and it consistently causes you to be 1 or 2 goals up by the 60th-70th minutes of a match. Is it still as good when teams now try to get back into the game? They might change formation. They'll definitely change Mentality, Roles and Duties, make subs and get people forward. Do you need to make changes? Get your small, attacking right back off and get a strong, defensive fullback on in his place? etc.

Or the tactic is great, but you struggle when there's a very strong, tall striker playing up front or against a fast winger (if you maybe have a slow-ish fullback) etc. Those are just examples of where there could be weaknesses in terms of player match ups.

Your players' Consistency, Pressure and Big Matches will also affect how well you perform. It'll affect the opposition too, but there's not much you can do about that. Having 1 or 2 inconsistent players shouldn't be a big deal, but if you have 7 (example), what happens if all of them don't "turn up" that day? It's going to be a long 90 mins. Pressure as well. You're in a match and if you win, you can secure European qualification. 9 players are anxious (because they can't handle pressure well) so you see silly misplaced passes, pot shots from nowhere, fluffed 1 v 1s, not reacting fast enough in defence etc. Again, a long 90 mins.

Good morale helps, of course.

Keeping a firm grip on players' Body Language can help too. You want players to play with confidence and be motivated. That ensures they're focused and willing to give their all. It's a constant balancing act for a manager as you're trying to balance confidence and motivation at a certain level so that they don't get complacent, nervous or lose focus.

Player condition you did touch on. Players with very low condition might not perform as well or might make more mistakes. This year we have short term stamina as well and it affects the effectiveness of pressing, for example. Players with very low Condition (so not much stamina either) may not press as effectively, making a poor decision to press or not to press, or just misjudging when to press. Something like that could cost you the game when trying to counter press very late in it, as an example.

The flow of the match - what if your key playmaker makes a costly mistake early in the game? He'll have a drop in confidence and could under perform the entire match. Not that you can't do anything about it. You can try to change tactically or bring on someone else with more confidence who might get things done more effectively.

Weather plays a bit of a role too. Players will tire quicker in the heat. Short intricate passing and dribbling isn't as easy on a muddy/soggy pitch.

Going into the other factors, you have things like altitude, jet lag, the importance of a match (as touched on before), the referee, where the match takes place (home or away, how big the crowd is, how hardcore the fans are) etc etc.

I tend to focus on starting with the 11 that gives me the best match ups vs the opposition, keeping my players as motivated and focused as possible and match management, watching how the match unfolds and reacting to what I am seeing. There are times where being proactive helps as well. It has served me well over the years.

 

[XaW]

Football is a game over very small margins, most sports with a low scoring per game is since a single goal can change everything. Unlike things like handball or basketball with high scoring a single goal is much more important for how the game ebbs and flows. At higher levels especially, managers can only do so much to influence the game, and the same goes for each individual player. So what the managers do, it try to stack as many margins in their favour as possible and hope that is enough. Because a manager can do EVERYTHING right and still lose, and a manager can do loads of mistakes and still win. That's why we see upsets in real life as well, but the upsets rarely affect more than a match here and there. The Leicester winning the PL is so unlikely, since that's a season where they had all things go for them and all other teams had things go against them, so that's a clear anomaly in this context, but it still shows that the best teams doesn't always win. How could a PL team lose against a non-league team?

FM tries to replicate this, but it does NOT manipulate the match to do so, but rather how well players are on the day, this is impacted by a lot of factors, but let's take consistency as an example. A player with 20 consistency, will very often play at their best, while a player with 1 consistency will very rarely play to the best of their abilities. So for this extreme example, a player who has the stats of Messi, but 1 consistency would very rarely turn up (but are capable of just about winning the game by themselves the few times they do), while a very consistent mediocre player will always be reliable and never have a bad day. So if your team is stacked with low consistent players, you are more likely to lose. This is a bit of a random factor, but it replicates real life with some excellent players who often have off-days.

@HUNT3R has made a good list, but I would also add a few things (and if repeat something, it's just because I'm forgetful at times....).

Leadership in your team vs the other team - Team leaders can rally players when things are not going well, and pull frustrated players back into motivated ones. Do not underestimate this!

Goals - Goals changes matches a lot, as I started this post with, and it can have a major effect on a match. If you are dominating a match, and then suddenly getting hit on the counter to go a goal down is devastating for players and managers alike and will impact a whole lot of things. And then the resilience of the team comes into play.

If you are annoyed by losing games, my first advise would be to try to figure out if it was a deserved loss or not. By that I mean chance creation. How many good (>.2 xG) chances did you create? If it was more than 2-3 MORE than your opponent and you lost, I'd say that's quite unlucky, and the loss is undeserved. These things happens every now and then and as long as it's not every match, I wouldn't worry about it. If you didn't "deserve to win", I'd look at how your chances happened (and why they were missed such as rushed shots, poor finishing, etc) and how the opposition scored (or created big chances if they had several). If your striker had a poor game, that could have loads of reasons, but it happens for anyone, just make sure it's not a trend... If the goals against were from the same way in several games, then perhaps you have a shortcoming somehow. Perhaps your centreback struggles with target men, your full back gets beaten, or your DM presses too much and give away the same space ahead of the defenders, just to mention a few.

In general try to identify trends in your team or the opposition and then identify when it happens in a game and (ideally before they score) change things to fix it. So if your issue is crosses, perhaps push players inwards instead of outwards, or the opposite for IFs cutting in and scoring.

Luckily, FM helps you identify this on with more broad strokes, so you don't have to watch every game multiple times, but rather rely on analysts. So if you look at your assists location (and types) against, you can perhaps find trends. This is my current one:

I've tried to remedy things, as we used to have a very majority from crosses, but I've changes up how we defend to avoid it. So we are conceding less crosses now, but with us now giving up more through balls than before. In total we are conceding less though, so that's a trade I'm willing to make.

You can do the same for goals:

I used to concede a fair bit from long shots, but I changed some stuff regarding my DM and pressing (as he was a bit too often running after someone and leaving a big hole outside the box. Now, he is more stationary there and I concede almost no long shots anymore. You can also see here that crosses are no longer much of an issue as we only have conceded 4 headers in the last 50 matches.

A quite fun one is the Positions there:

This shows who scores from positions, and very often strikers will be on there. An interesting thing here is that right wingers never score against me, and that fits how I play. My left back is very attacking so the opposition right winger is very often tracking my left back down, and that shows here. The few times he gets caught out the winger can only cross, and as I've said before, I have that under control. So this is a very good metric for MY tactic and how it's working.

Another report I find helpful is the one that shows what types of formations you have faced and how successful you have been against them.

This is mine. I do extremely good against 4-3-3 2DM Wide for some reason. The most faced tactic is the one I struggle most with. But I'm a fairly newly promoted side into this division, so these numbers are more encouraging than they look!

I don't think this is anything revolutionary, but these things really help me when I'm struggling to win.

[SimonHoddle]

Amazing in-depth and comprehensive answers above. Much appreciated.

I’ve said it 1000 times before, I don’t mind losing - it’s essential for the challenge. It’s the WHY that hurts. The factors which go into every FM result are multiple (which is great as it clearly is trying to emulate real life). And luck has to play a part too. Football can be cruel, it’s why we love it.

I think this brings my threads to a natural end. I only ever wanted to understand the game better. Looking at the answers above there is so much to take into account, 

maybe, just maybe, SI could articulate this more than they do. 
 

but your answers have given me fresh perspective. Which is an appropriate word for playing FM and trying not to get too infuriated….put everything into perspective:-)

 

CHEERS