[FM23] El Caballero Pálido (Manchester United, 2029/30)

[GIMN]

5 hours ago, SixPointer said:

Coasted to the title in the end! Do you ever see the little magician heading to camp nou his spiritual home?

I think that would be the eventual goal, and if the job becomes available I am certain to throw my name into the proverbial hat.  They kept faith with Xavi despite finishing 3rd last season, and his position is described as secure, so it doesn't look like anything is going to come up soon.

That said, Iniesta's time at Man Utd might not be long.  On the back of the title triumph, and with 12 months remaining on his contract, the board offered a new deal.  £57k per week for 4 years. 

A day earlier, the board informed Iniesta that set-pieces are now considered to be a key part of their tactical identity, and that he MUST sign high profile players, using the full amount of transfer budget available.  None of those things are necessarily egregious, and the idea that objectives might change after "unexpected" success is not entirely unreasonable.  They aren't, however, things that seem to be specifically geared towards achieving our long terms objectives, and if these were going to be part of the plan, I can't fathom why they weren't disclosed 18 months ago when I took the job.  To then ignore my feedback and refuse to remove even a single one of the arbitrary goals - well, that doesn't sit right.  I don't care that we're only 1.5 years into our tenure, we just won Manchester United their first league title in 15 years.

I negotiated.  I would accept a paltry £65k per week for a 2-year extension.  A fantastic deal for a World Cup winning coach, if you ask me.  Denied.  The board were willing to go to £61k, but insisted on 4 years.  I tried £65k for 4, or £61k for 2.  Both counters were rebuffed.  Given the circumstances just 24 hours earlier, I didn't feel a particular desire to compromise.  We left without coming to an agreement.  Iniesta enters the final year of his contract.

4 hours ago, 13th Man said:

Crazy how far back Liverpool ended after being so close for most of the season!  Congrats on the title win...brutal in the UCL.  I know all to well the sting of losing on penalties.

It does seem, however, that Iniesta has taken United back to the top of world football and with another summer to put his fingerprints on the club I can only imagine what will come next.

A shocking collapse.  I do wonder how different things might've been if they beat us back in March.  From that point on they picked up only 14 points for 8 games.  They can console themselves with an FA Cup victory, however.

1 hour ago, dtown1414 said:

Congrats. 

Thank you!!

15 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Congratulations! All looked very easy in the end.

I'm interested to see how you go about doing this...

An in depth look at this summer's transfer dealings will be on it's way...

[13th Man]

Sounds like you’ll be using Man Utd as a stepping stone. A World Cup winning coach comes in and gets you a title and you show no flexibility?

Ill bet there will be plenty of big clubs ready to take advantage of their hubris!

[SixPointer]

Sounds like the board like the green and yellow scarves! They could lose the man who’s turned it around in such a short space of time. 

[GIMN]

"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose." -- Bill Gates

With a Premier League title under our belt, it is tempting to believe that we have now cemented our position within Europe's elite.  Such complacency, however, can be the enemy of progress.  The reality is that staying at the top requires constant effort and a willingness to identify and address weaknesses.  There are, in my view, two ways to achieve this: Tactical innovation and/or iterative improvement.  We'll eventually be focussing on the latter, but first we will look to assess how we did last summer.

Excitement Factor.  Those were the words tripping off the end of my tongue at every opportunity this time last year.  It was a completely untested concept as we searched for the elusive"Moneyball" metric - the one that would indicate a player's ability to perform at a high level, and allow us to identify those who are criminally undervalued.  This was the basis of 3 of our arrivals: Arnau Puigmal (£1.3m), Vinicius Tobias (£10.5m) and Pablo Torre (£18.5m)

    

All 3 were (relatively) cheap for the level that we are aiming for.  I also feel that all 3 have been a success, based on expectations.  Vinicius Tobias is probably the best of the bunch.  1 goal and 7 assists in 2,729 minutes from the right wing-back slot, Vinicius Tobias considerably outperformed Diogo Dalot who he replaced.  Pablo Torre registered 4 goals and 4 assists in 2,284 minutes, as he provided relief for Güler in the mezzala/wide playmaker role.  Whilst final output is a little lower than I would've liked, he has excelled as a passer, above the 90th percentile for Passes Completed and Progressive Passes, and above the 80th percentile for Expected Assists.  His goalscoring exploits weren't far below his xG, but averaging 0.07 xG per shot, I'd like to see him improve his decision making in that regard.  Puigmal played the least, racking up 931 minutes and 5 goal contributions.  It's nothing to write home about, but it is a solid contribution for a player signed for the cost of 0.6% of a Neymar.

Our long-term favourite metric, Turnover Differential, was responsible for our "big" £38m signing last summer, Josip Šutalo.  Whilst it is worth adding that the try-before-you-buy nature of the 6 month loan spell that preceded his signing, also helped in the decision making process.

In truth, it's been a bit of a mixed bag.  His defensive metrics are very good considering how possession hungry we are.  To be above 60th percentile in Headers Won and Pressures Attempted, and above 80th percentile in Tackles Won, shows how active he is in helping us to win back the ball.  At over 75 passes per game, it is very pleasing that his possession lost stats are also very low.  That said, he isn't progressive with the ball - finishing below our other regular starting centre-backs.  I suppose we do need someone who is sensible at the back!

Neither Pickford nor Hannibal were signed based on data.  Pickford came in as a cheap backup to Çakır, won the starting job and went on to keep 30 clean sheets in 54 appearances.  For just £3m, I believe that qualifies as an unmitigated success.  Hannibal was a cheap replacement for Garnacho who helped us satisfy homegrown quotas and finished the season with 17 goals contributions in 1,721 minutes as relief for Anthony.  We also signed a number of young players - Rumble, Kaique, Spicer - based on potential rather than performance.

It is only 1 season's worth of performances, but I think we can be satisfied with our business so far.  This season, however, brings new challenges - not just do we need to find those marginal gains to improve an otherwise very good side, but the board now wants us to sign high profile players and use up the entirety of our transfer budget.  Both objectives should help us push the needle, but it also means that we now have an extra layer to consider.

(Note: we've changed up the colour scheme/skin for the upcoming season)

We've taken a very data-heavy approach when it comes to identifying potential signings.  It would seem only appropriate to use a similar approach for assessing our areas of relative weakness.  When doing so, there were two areas that stood out for me.

  

At the base of our midfield stood Rodrigo Bentancur or Luke Rumble.  When comparing the two, it is clear that one stands head and shoulders above the other.  Unsurprisingly, it was the veteran Bentancur that was the better performer, but the gulf in quality is concerning.  My original plan was for us to sell Bentancur this summer and hand the reigns over to Rumble.  The youngster has performed well, averaging 6.94 and starting 23 games, but I'm not convinced he is ready to be the de facto starter.  With Bentancur entering the final year of his contract, there are many questions:  Do we sell now and look for a starting calibre replacement, do we look to extend his contract, or do we keep him and accept that we'll lose him on a free transfer?

Truth be told, I don't think we can rest on the idea that Rumble will make enough of an improvement in the next 12 months for us to consider the last option.  With the need to find those incremental improvements and a sizeable transfer budget burning a hole in our pocket, this seems like a good position to try and address in the transfer market.  3 options stood out:

    

Another favourite from my tenure as Spain manager, Unai Vencedor might be the perfect option.  His Turnover Differential is +10.28 compared to Bentancur, and he is more progressive despite playing fewer passes.  Whilst his defensive numbers are lower, the rate of winning possession shows that he excels at interceptions and recoveries, whilst also being a creative force for a DM.  At 27 years old, he has resale potential, but his release clause is £141m and Bilbao are not entertaining the idea of selling for anything below that.  We can afford it, but do we want to?

Zubimendi has the best defensive numbers out of the 3 options; with greater Pressures Attempted, whilst not falling too far behind Bentancur in Tackles and Headers Won.  Whilst not as impressive as Vencedor, his Turnover Differential is a considerably better, and he has also earned the "Water Carrier" archetype - arguably the perfect description for what I want from an Anchor.  At 29, he is the eldest of the 3 options, but 18 months younger than the incumbent Uruguayan.  Like Bilbao, Sociedad are not interested in accepted bids below his release clause, but £89m is a lot more palatable, even if it would represent a club record.  FC Porto's Albanian midfielder Kristjan Asllani would be my first choice if we were operating under the same rules as last summer.  Despite having the worst defensive numbers, he is a far more intriguing option going forward.  Naturally a central midfielder who has been playing deeper, Asllani would be available for considerably cheaper than the other options - somewhere in the £30-£40m range.  He is also the youngest at 26.

Based on profile, and some ideal traits, we eventually made our decision...

...welcome Martín Zubimendi.  A 3-year contract, worth £140k per week means he arrives for only £5k per week more than Bentancur - a figure that I expected would have increased significantly had we extended his contract.  We were only able to get £42m for the Uruguayan from Southampton - doubling Utd's intial investment of £21m when theys signed him back in January 2025.

The other area of interest was the False 9 position:

   

Like with the DM position, there was a clear starter with the player on the left registering considerably more minutes than his peer.  Whilst they were better in possession, there is a considerably difference in goal threat.  Enough so for me to consider the player on the right as the better option long term.  That changing of the guard would see Hannibal ascend into a starting role, and Anthony become the backup.  Well maybe...

...Vincius Tobias's performances make me want to give him more minutes, and that opens up the opportunity to push Sancho up front.  Whilst I don't have comparative data to know that he will be an improvement on Hannibal, he's got to be an improvement, right?  Regardless, this kind of makes Anthony surplus to requirements.  With Chelsea and Tottenham interested, we are able to get the West London club to bite with a £90m bid.  That is more than enough (and just above his estimated value) as far as I'm concerned for a player who is on the verge of falling down the pecking order.  This leaves us with Rashford, Endrick, Sancho and Hannibal as our striking options.  That's more than sufficient, right?

Well, we have an objective to spend our transfer budget, an objective to sign high-profile players, and an objective to sign players Under 23 for the first team.  If we could find a player that satisfies all 3 conditions, and possibly play in either attacking role, that would be perfect.  (The new season had rolled around before I took these screenshots)

  

Paul Wanner had been under consideration when we originally signed Hannibal, and whilst he isn't naturally a striker, he has the physical tool to succeed up front and registered 14 goals and 12 assists the season gone.  Leo Meinel has impressed in games against Man Utd and just come off a season where he scored 26 goals (plus 4 assists) and won the Europa League best player award.  Both would smash the club record signing that has just been set with the acquisition of Zubimendi.  Both would surely satisfy the board's desires for us to make a statement.

On balance, one option is possibly much more sensible than the other...

...and I decided to go for the other.  We now have 4 strikers who expect to be regular starters (or higher) and receive a combined wage of £1.3m per week.  The latter is not too great of a concern, as we still have £943k per week to play with, whilst the expectations can hopefully be met through careful management of a schedule that has the potential of playing 65 games.  We met the £106m release clause and Leo Meinel becomes, without doubt, the most expensive player I've ever signed in any version of FM.  Our transfer budget has been spent.

As mentioned previously, we had already arranged 3 transfer prior to the window even being open.  Gavin Bazunu, Marc Guéhi and Noël Aséko Nkili were joined, however, by a fourth, previously undisclosed player:

Henry Smith was a player identified by our scouts as someone who was already capable of playing at a Premier League level, with the potential of being one of the world's best.  Having come through the ranks at Blackburn Rovers, who were languishing mid-table in the Championship, Smith has made 70 appearances over the last 2 seasons, performing admirably, if not necessarily setting the world alight.  19 when we made our approach, made his England debut in March, and available for a rather modest £16.5m.  What's not to like?  He argubaly makes the Guéhi signing redundant, but given the defensive crisis when I first took over, I don't mind having some insurance in the backline.

We did have a decision to make in defence, though.  Gaston Ávila has been on the transfer list since January, and hasn't piqued the interest of any suitors.  Whilst his contract expires in 12 months time, he has been dependable when called upon, and if we're unlikely to get a transfer fee for him, we might as well keep him around for depth.  By extension, that would make Lisandro Martínez expendable.  He is also far more likely to attract interest.  Or, to be more accurate, he DID attract interest.  A £45m bid from Real Sociedad and "El Carnicero" (the butcher) has departed for LaLiga.  He'll be joined in Spain by Uğurcan Çakır, who agreed to join Sevilla for £25m.

 

In the end a net spend of only £55m, but I have spent more in this transfer window than the previous 3 combined.  We head into the season with our squad as follows (Kaique on loan at Sao Paolo until January):

Edited April 10, 2023 by GIMN

[SixPointer]

I envy the depth you can go to. Your use of stats is phenomenal.

I would be lying if I didn’t read the title and think you were leaving old Trafford but it looks like a successful window and Andreas is ready to go for it 

[GIMN]

27 minutes ago, SixPointer said:

I would be lying if I didn’t read the title and think you were leaving old Trafford but it looks like a successful window and Andreas is ready to go for it 

I had to resist the urge to resign, that was perhaps guided more by my personal dislike of Man Utd than what I thought would be realistic.  I was offered a return to the Spain job, after they fell to Italy in the 2nd round of the EUROs and Arteta was given his marching orders, but a return to international management is not high on my agenda.  With contract talks breaking down, however, the scene has been set for a potential change of scenery next summer (unless, of course, the board are happy to reconsider their approach).

34 minutes ago, SixPointer said:

I envy the depth you can go to. Your use of stats is phenomenal.

Ta very much.  This is definitely the time of season I find most interesting, as you have a full season of stats at your disposal and a proper opportunity to dive into the details.

[rich ruzzian]

I really like the approach on the F9. I woudn't think of Antony and now Sancho as a F9. 

[_Ben_]

Our summers couldn't have been more different! As already said, your use of stats - particularly your new baby in the Pizza chart, is phenomenal. Hopefully your final season in Manchester will grow your status to absolutely elite and allow you to walk back into the Camp Nou next year.

[13th Man]

Fantastic, in depth pizza time transfer window.  Great crust, (all the important stats in a nice visual) and baked to perfection with well thought out decisions.

It’s interesting being asked to spend the full, massive transfer budget when you’re one who is looking for undervalued players. Still, allowed you to get some excellent depth then make a few big time transfers to keep the board and the fans happy.

[GIMN]

On 10/04/2023 at 14:35, rich ruzzian said:

I really like the approach on the F9. I woudn't think of Antony and now Sancho as a F9. 

I'm a massive fan of using the False 9 role for link players that don't have the physicality to hold up the ball.  Especially useful for repurposing wingers in a winger-less system!

On 10/04/2023 at 15:26, _Ben_ said:

Our summers couldn't have been more different! As already said, your use of stats - particularly your new baby in the Pizza chart, is phenomenal. Hopefully your final season in Manchester will grow your status to absolutely elite and allow you to walk back into the Camp Nou next year.

On 11/04/2023 at 04:58, 13th Man said:

It’s interesting being asked to spend the full, massive transfer budget when you’re one who is looking for undervalued players. Still, allowed you to get some excellent depth then make a few big time transfers to keep the board and the fans happy.

I don't think I'm ever going to feel comfortable spending money like this, but I'm certainly interested to see how it pans out.  Factoring in player reptutation to the final decision means I'm kind of forced to look beyond statistical output which, other than making me feel a little nervous, means I'll be signing some players I wouldn't otherwise have.  With the high outlays as well, it probably means I'm going to be less inclined to retrain them into new positions (who spends £100m for a player who doesn't actually know how to play the position you're asking them to!)

 

[GIMN]

(New season, new approach - I'll be covering longer periods of time and usually with a focus on a specific topic rather than going through events in every game.  There is an interactive dashboard with Match Reports, Player Performance, etc... all in one place which I'll be linking to throughout the post)

As with our transfer activity, where we looked to make the marginal gains required to push the squad to the next level, the summer was also about making those tweaks to our tactical approach that will help elevate us to Champions League glory.  Whilst we were difficult to beat, due to our back 3 and screening anchor, and able to dominate most teams in possession, we did struggle against the bigger teams.  There should be no major surprises there - those teams are filled with talented players and guided by elite coaches - and they will expect to beat us just as much as we expect to beat them.  Nonetheless, we need to be able to adapt whilst remaining true to the concepts that we value.  It would be good to revisit those:

- Dominate possession, exhibiting patience with the ball
- Have confidence to play within tight spaces
- Prioritise players with intelligence, trusting in their qualities

Whilst we need to be conscious of those principles, first it helps to identify when and why the tactic has worked and, of course, not worked. 

(Click image for tactical instructions)

Our primary formation is a 3-5-2, with the Mezzala and False 9 working in tandem to create the box shape to help us have numerical supremacy in central areas.  We look to play narrow, so whilst the wing-backs will provide width they are not necessarily hugging the touchline.  This positioning also helps us to move between the channels as necessary.  If we switch the play to a specific flank, it is easy for us to shift across and create overloads in the half spaces.  It can, however, lack penetration.  Unlike the 3-box-3 formations we are starting to see become more commonplace in the real world, especially those utilising inverted wing-backs, our wide players are not contributing as much in terms of crashing the box.  This puts the onus on the mezzala and false 9 to be both transitional players - creating the central box - and goal threats.

In our 4-1 demolition of Newcastle last season, we saw the benefits of this approach.  As can be seen above, Hannibal was able to drop into the hole to receive the ball, and doing so he garnered the attention of both of Newcastle's centre-backs.  Had Rashford been able to stay onside this would've been a goal.  It is indicative of how things have worked for us.  When Hannibal or Anthony were able to find space, it messed with opponents' defensive structure and we reaped the rewards.  It is, however, quite an easy thing to counter.

In the Champions League final defeat against PSG we saw a lot of this situation, where Hannibal would try and drop into the hole but would be well marshalled by Guillamon at the base of their midfield.  The extra attention allowed the defence to hold it's shape better, and also created opportunities for the rest of the team to press Hannibal quickly.  As a result, we would lose possession in the final third a lot more frequently, or we'd find our false 9 drifting out wide to get on the ball.  Whilst the latter is not necessarily a bad thing, the rest of the tactic isn't built around that movement and so the support structure isn't in place.

It is likely no coincidence that when up against elite defensive midfielders we struggled, and we need to find a way to be able to bypass the opposition pivot.  As simple a solution as it is, this means being more variable in our width.

By being able to switch to a wider formation, we can consider the support structures alongside it.  Wingbacks being instructed to stay wider and a return to the wide centre-back allows us to have options when the ball reaches the mezzala or false 9.  Ultimately we are widening the support area between those two players, and as such we are not going to be able to dominate in central areas as easily.  The opportunity to progress the ball between the corner of the box (DLP and MEZ, for example) are going to become harder and more risky.  We will also lose the counter-pressing strength that comes from having a lot of players in a tight area when we lose possession.  As a result, this is not a wholesale change, but a situational one for specific games or specific moments within a game.

The new season threw up a couple of challenging opening fixtures, which will allow us to put these ideas in practice - the Community Shield fixture against Liverpool, and a very short away trip to Man City.

A wonderful example of the wider formation in action.  When Mladenović picks up the ball, Sancho pulls out to the right hand side, whilst Güler peels away from his marker Konate to head out towards the left half space.  Konate is now in a proverbial no-man's land allowing Sancho to run at Virgil Van Dyke.  With Van Dyke having to engage, it creates the angle for Sancho to play in Rashford...who was marginally offside.  I still don't agree with that decision - the final image is just after the ball is played, and he looks level to me!  Whilst this didn't result in a goal, that didn't stop us from running out 3-1 winners on the day and retain the Community Shield.

We can see this in play again against Man City.  Sancho doesn't just drop deep, but also drifts wider, taking up a wonderful spot in between 4 Man City defenders.  Rodri has a lot of ground to cover to engage, and that allows him to play it across the field to Güler who, just like in the Liverpool example before, had split out wide as we pushed forward.  He breaks inside to receive the pass, and because of his wide position, he is being tracked by City's right back, Cancelo.  This means that Güler has an extra step on his defender, who desperately lunges in.  Güler is away and able to play in Rashford, who somehow conspired to find the outstretched leg of Ederson rather than the back of the net.

The extra width doesn't just help us when Sancho drops deep.  We are starting to see him as an outlet in the channels more often.  This might be a result of his natural inclination as a winger, compared to someone like Hannibal.  This is massive for me, as that area inside the box - between the outside edge of the 6-yard box and the inside edge of the 18-yard box - is an area I want to see us attack often.  There is a lot of stress placed on defending the width of the 6-yard box so, by extension, that area just outside becomes the easiest part of the area to enter.  Once you're in the box, defenders have to be more cautious as a mistake can lead to a penalty, and so if we can get into that area often we have a good chance of creating problems.  As can be seen above - which was our opening goal in a 4-2 victory - Sancho's run has put Ederson into a bind, and his decision to come out allows a simple square ball for Rashford to give us the lead.

Naturally, it is not without risk.  As mentioned before, the additional width means we are less effective in the counter-press, and Man City were able to equalise almost immediately after a swift transition allowed Haaland to run the outside of Lacroix at the heart of our defence.  This does mean that sometimes we will look to become more compact in possession when defending a lead to help allow us to stay compact out of possession.  This is kind of counter-intuitive, as a possession based team might be more inclined to try and reduce the tempo and stretch the play in order to tire out the opposition who will be desperate to chase the game.

It is probably a good opportunity to spotlight Jadon Sancho, who has taken to the False 9 like a duck out of water:

(Click image for player profiles)

We can see that his astonishing xA of 0.48 shows just how devastating he's been in this role.  If it hadn't been for some...umm...interesting finishing from Rashford he would have more assists.  More importantly, he is also scoring at a rate which vindicates our decision to let Anthony go.  He is not alone, we have absolutely wracked up the goals so far this season, averaging 3 goals per game.  18 games in and Rashford tops the scoring charts with 14 in all competitions, with Leo Meinel not far behind on 10.  Güler is also benefitting from the changes, as he is on pace to reach double figures for the first time in his career.

Here is an illustration why.  As mentioned before, the additional width sees him push out towards the left early in transitional periods which tends to make it difficult for the opposition full-back to tuck inside too much.  The first image shows the two widest players as Meinel (playing as a False 9) and Güler.  What we've lost in support distance between the two of them, we've gained in space for others.  Henry Smith plays it short to the marked Christian Eriksen, who is able to play it into the hole to Rashford.  That pulls the defender away and creates the space for Güler to run into en route to a 3-0 win over Brentford.

Whilst there's a lot of talk here about playing wide, the narrow approach has still been very effective, especially against teams fielding a 4-4-2.

Another 3-0 win, this time at Everton's expense, and maybe my favourite goal of the season so far.  It's not spectacular, but Rashford playing as a False 9  this time out peels off his defender beautifully to drop into the hole, and that creates the space for Endrick to break into the gap he leaves behind.  This is the type of goal that the tactic was designed for, and it's very satisfying when it comes off.

Results-wise, it's been an unmitigated success; winning all 18 games through to the end of October.  As for game plan, not quite as successful.  A comeback 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest was a mistake where we'd started wide and got punished on the break.  Whilst an immediate equaliser helped get us back into the game, it was the half-time change to a narrower approach that bore fruit.  Another 3-1 win, against Bayern Munich, was possibly our worst performance of the season.  Two late goals flattered us and shows that we still have a lot to learn.

(Click image for match reports)

Despite our incredible form, we are not top of the league.  Liverpool have been equally impressive, and hold a 3 point lead courtesy of playing one mroe game.  We scored 3 times against them in the Community Shield and that seemed to be enough of a motivator for them to decide they never want to concede again - having kept clean sheets in each of their 12 league games this season.  It's going to be one hell of a contest!

[SixPointer]

2 hours ago, GIMN said:

(New season, new approach - I'll be covering longer periods of time and usually with a focus on a specific topic rather than going through events in every game.  There is an interactive dashboard with Match Reports, Player Performance, etc... all in one place which I'll be linking to throughout the post)

As with our transfer activity, where we looked to make the marginal gains required to push the squad to the next level, the summer was also about making those tweaks to our tactical approach that will help elevate us to Champions League glory.  Whilst we were difficult to beat, due to our back 3 and screening anchor, and able to dominate most teams in possession, we did struggle against the bigger teams.  There should be no major surprises there - those teams are filled with talented players and guided by elite coaches - and they will expect to beat us just as much as we expect to beat them.  Nonetheless, we need to be able to adapt whilst remaining true to the concepts that we value.  It would be good to revisit those:

- Dominate possession, exhibiting patience with the ball
- Have confidence to play within tight spaces
- Prioritise players with intelligence, trusting in their qualities

Whilst we need to be conscious of those principles, first it helps to identify when and why the tactic has worked and, of course, not worked. 

(Click image for tactical instructions)

Our primary formation is a 3-5-2, with the Mezzala and False 9 working in tandem to create the box shape to help us have numerical supremacy in central areas.  We look to play narrow, so whilst the wing-backs will provide width they are not necessarily hugging the touchline.  This positioning also helps us to move between the channels as necessary.  If we switch the play to a specific flank, it is easy for us to shift across and create overloads in the half spaces.  It can, however, lack penetration.  Unlike the 3-box-3 formations we are starting to see become more commonplace in the real world, especially those utilising inverted wing-backs, our wide players are not contributing as much in terms of crashing the box.  This puts the onus on the mezzala and false 9 to be both transitional players - creating the central box - and goal threats.

In our 4-1 demolition of Newcastle last season, we saw the benefits of this approach.  As can be seen above, Hannibal was able to drop into the hole to receive the ball, and doing so he garnered the attention of both of Newcastle's centre-backs.  Had Rashford been able to stay onside this would've been a goal.  It is indicative of how things have worked for us.  When Hannibal or Anthony were able to find space, it messed with opponents' defensive structure and we reaped the rewards.  It is, however, quite an easy thing to counter.

In the Champions League final defeat against PSG we saw a lot of this situation, where Hannibal would try and drop into the hole but would be well marshalled by Guillamon at the base of their midfield.  The extra attention allowed the defence to hold it's shape better, and also created opportunities for the rest of the team to press Hannibal quickly.  As a result, we would lose possession in the final third a lot more frequently, or we'd find our false 9 drifting out wide to get on the ball.  Whilst the latter is not necessarily a bad thing, the rest of the tactic isn't built around that movement and so the support structure isn't in place.

It is likely no coincidence that when up against elite defensive midfielders we struggled, and we need to find a way to be able to bypass the opposition pivot.  As simple a solution as it is, this means being more variable in our width.

By being able to switch to a wider formation, we can consider the support structures alongside it.  Wingbacks being instructed to stay wider and a return to the wide centre-back allows us to have options when the ball reaches the mezzala or false 9.  Ultimately we are widening the support area between those two players, and as such we are not going to be able to dominate in central areas as easily.  The opportunity to progress the ball between the corner of the box (DLP and MEZ, for example) are going to become harder and more risky.  We will also lose the counter-pressing strength that comes from having a lot of players in a tight area when we lose possession.  As a result, this is not a wholesale change, but a situational one for specific games or specific moments within a game.

The new season threw up a couple of challenging opening fixtures, which will allow us to put these ideas in practice - the Community Shield fixture against Liverpool, and a very short away trip to Man City.

A wonderful example of the wider formation in action.  When Mladenović picks up the ball, Sancho pulls out to the right hand side, whilst Güler peels away from his marker Konate to head out towards the left half space.  Konate is now in a proverbial no-man's land allowing Sancho to run at Virgil Van Dyke.  With Van Dyke having to engage, it creates the angle for Sancho to play in Rashford...who was marginally offside.  I still don't agree with that decision - the final image is just after the ball is played, and he looks level to me!  Whilst this didn't result in a goal, that didn't stop us from running out 3-1 winners on the day and retain the Community Shield.

We can see this in play again against Man City.  Sancho doesn't just drop deep, but also drifts wider, taking up a wonderful spot in between 4 Man City defenders.  Rodri has a lot of ground to cover to engage, and that allows him to play it across the field to Güler who, just like in the Liverpool example before, had split out wide as we pushed forward.  He breaks inside to receive the pass, and because of his wide position, he is being tracked by City's right back, Cancelo.  This means that Güler has an extra step on his defender, who desperately lunges in.  Güler is away and able to play in Rashford, who somehow conspired to find the outstretched leg of Ederson rather than the back of the net.

The extra width doesn't just help us when Sancho drops deep.  We are starting to see him as an outlet in the channels more often.  This might be a result of his natural inclination as a winger, compared to someone like Hannibal.  This is massive for me, as that area inside the box - between the outside edge of the 6-yard box and the inside edge of the 18-yard box - is an area I want to see us attack often.  There is a lot of stress placed on defending the width of the 6-yard box so, by extension, that area just outside becomes the easiest part of the area to enter.  Once you're in the box, defenders have to be more cautious as a mistake can lead to a penalty, and so if we can get into that area often we have a good chance of creating problems.  As can be seen above - which was our opening goal in a 4-2 victory - Sancho's run has put Ederson into a bind, and his decision to come out allows a simple square ball for Rashford to give us the lead.

Naturally, it is not without risk.  As mentioned before, the additional width means we are less effective in the counter-press, and Man City were able to equalise almost immediately after a swift transition allowed Haaland to run the outside of Lacroix at the heart of our defence.  This does mean that sometimes we will look to become more compact in possession when defending a lead to help allow us to stay compact out of possession.  This is kind of counter-intuitive, as a possession based team might be more inclined to try and reduce the tempo and stretch the play in order to tire out the opposition who will be desperate to chase the game.

It is probably a good opportunity to spotlight Jadon Sancho, who has taken to the False 9 like a duck out of water:

(Click image for player profiles)

We can see that his astonishing xA of 0.48 shows just how devastating he's been in this role.  If it hadn't been for some...umm...interesting finishing from Rashford he would have more assists.  More importantly, he is also scoring at a rate which vindicates our decision to let Anthony go.  He is not alone, we have absolutely wracked up the goals so far this season, averaging 3 goals per game.  18 games in and Rashford tops the scoring charts with 14 in all competitions, with Leo Meinel not far behind on 10.  Güler is also benefitting from the changes, as he is on pace to reach double figures for the first time in his career.

Here is an illustration why.  As mentioned before, the additional width sees him push out towards the left early in transitional periods which tends to make it difficult for the opposition full-back to tuck inside too much.  The first image shows the two widest players as Meinel (playing as a False 9) and Güler.  What we've lost in support distance between the two of them, we've gained in space for others.  Henry Smith plays it short to the marked Christian Eriksen, who is able to play it into the hole to Rashford.  That pulls the defender away and creates the space for Güler to run into en route to a 3-0 win over Brentford.

Whilst there's a lot of talk here about playing wide, the narrow approach has still been very effective, especially against teams fielding a 4-4-2.

Another 3-0 win, this time at Everton's expense, and maybe my favourite goal of the season so far.  It's not spectacular, but Rashford playing as a False 9  this time out peels off his defender beautifully to drop into the hole, and that creates the space for Endrick to break into the gap he leaves behind.  This is the type of goal that the tactic was designed for, and it's very satisfying when it comes off.

Results-wise, it's been an unmitigated success; winning all 18 games through to the end of October.  As for game plan, not quite as successful.  A comeback 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest was a mistake where we'd started wide and got punished on the break.  Whilst an immediate equaliser helped get us back into the game, it was the half-time change to a narrower approach that bore fruit.  Another 3-1 win, against Bayern Munich, was possibly our worst performance of the season.  Two late goals flattered us and shows that we still have a lot to learn.

(Click image for match reports)

Despite our incredible form, we are not top of the league.  Liverpool have been equally impressive, and hold a 3 point lead courtesy of playing one mroe game.  We scored 3 times against them in the Community Shield and that seemed to be enough of a motivator for them to decide they never want to concede again - having kept clean sheets in each of their 12 league games this season.  It's going to be one hell of a contest!

This might just be my favourite write up!! It’s has everything. Some work my man some work indeed!

Nice to see Sancho thriving in the F9. He is one player at United i wish could get going in real life. Cause he was electric At Dortmund! 

[rich ruzzian]

The updates keep getting better and better. Already so interested which things you are highlight in the next update. 

That dashboard you created is so cool. 

[GIMN]

7 hours ago, SixPointer said:

This might just be my favourite write up!! It’s has everything. Some work my man some work indeed!

Nice to see Sancho thriving in the F9. He is one player at United i wish could get going in real life. Cause he was electric At Dortmund! 

Thank you.  It was quite enjoyable.  I know that I've not done a very good job of picking a format and sticking to it throughout this thread, but I'm liking the idea of doing a big update framed against a specific concept.  Kind of like a TIFO video, I suppose.  Sancho's drop off since joining United IRL is a real shame - whilst I know they're a different type of player, it's one of the reasons I want Bellingham to stay at Dortmund - you want to see awesome players in environments in which they flourish.

1 hour ago, rich ruzzian said:

The updates keep getting better and better. Already so interested which things you are highlight in the next update. 

That dashboard you created is so cool. 

Thank you.  I'm super happy with the dashboard, even if only a small handful of people might ever click through to it.  I've always wanted a way of collating all relevant information in one place and can be interactive, and I think I've finally found a way of doing so.  Now to convince the Forum admins to allow embedding so it can be in the post itself!

The advantage of this big update approach is I can just crack on with playing rather than stop every 5-6 games to post an update.  The problem, however, is that I kind of want to know what the concept for my next update is going to be so I can be mindful of taking screenshots along the way 

[13th Man]

Fantastic tactical write up. The pros and cons of going wide vs narrow are fascinating. It’s always amazing how one single thing can change the way a team plays in all sorts of ways.

I have found the same thing in terms of narrow helping keep possession and also punch through a 4-4-2, while width helps the dribblers do damage in space.

Like the idea of ‘idea’ updates as well. There’s times when each match brings a lot to the story and evolution, and others when there’s no need to go into such detail and focus instead on the big picture as you did here.

[_Ben_]

What a wonderful bit of written work there! It reads as if it belongs in real football! And that is a massive compliment as you've managed to take a game and write about it in a way that people do as their job. You know my thoughts on the dashboard, also.

You've made a strong start in the league and obviously its quite anomalous to have two 100% teams - who is going to break first?! I can't post this, however, and not mention the team in third place! UTV!

[SteinkelssonFM]

Just picked up the last couple of posts, and as others have said...what a bloody good read...and the dashboard, that is box office my friend! 

The tactical analysis and breakdown of the system in game is excellent and the screen shots help to see how it is playing out in game. 

Strapping myself back in now that I am back on the forum. 💪

[GIMN]

3 hours ago, 13th Man said:

It’s always amazing how one single thing can change the way a team plays in all sorts of ways.

This is definitely something I want to explore more.  Small changes can have big impacts, but I know that there's some things I tend to do on autopilot - playing wider and dropping tempo when up 2-0 or more at half time being a prime example.  I want to get better at recognising when and why those small changes work, and also try to reassess some of those assumptions built up over the years of playing FM.  Sorry...I mean Iniesta is developing as a coach and trying to expand the tools at his disposal.

2 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

It reads as if it belongs in real football! And that is a massive compliment as you've managed to take a game and write about it in a way that people do as their job.

1 hour ago, MattyLewis11 said:

The tactical analysis and breakdown of the system in game is excellent and the screen shots help to see how it is playing out in game. 

Thank you, both!  I will keep namedropping TIFO (almost as much as I do Figma), as they've provided a lot of inspiration for my skinning exploits, as well as for this write-up.  I find it quite a useful reference point as they obviously don't have license to use video footage, so they're use of stills to tell the story is super useful.  My approach to editing the writing is to read it back in Jon Mackenzie's voice and change it if it sounds odd 

3 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

I can't post this, however, and not mention the team in third place! UTV!

They're currently managed by Slaven Bilic, who replaced our lord and saviour Unai Emery in December 2023.  Last season was the first time we've finished in the top half in his tenure, so quite surprised he's survived this long.  This season it appears the biggest difference is the sale of Emi Buendia to Juventus, which means Jacob Ramsey is now starting regularly.  He has 11 starts so far this season, which is more than he's had in any other season in the save!!

[13th Man]

2 hours ago, GIMN said:

Small changes can have big impacts, but I know that there's some things I tend to do on autopilot - playing wider and dropping tempo when up 2-0 or more at half time being a prime example

These things are often smart, but just autopilot can be dangerous as you say! Sometimes I’ve had those matches where it all comes crumbing down because I eased off the gas too soon or didn’t think about how bad the usual change would be against a certain side.

[GIMN]

Whilst I plough on through ahead of the next month, thought I'd pop in one little update that might not fit naturally into the next write up:

After 4 failed contract negotiations where Utd chairman, Dale Craggs, refused to budge from his £57k per week valuation, the standoff was eventually broken.  Iniesta was about to enter his final 6 months, and the prospect of losing the manager who had brought the good times back to Old Trafford was enough to force the board's hand, and a £75k per week, 5-year deal was offered.  It was more than Iniesta had been initially asking but, sensing he had the leverage, a 10% increase was negotiated, alongside a slightly shorter contract length.  It looks like, results permitting, Iniesta will be at Man Utd for the foreseeable future.

[13th Man]

This news is both welcome and disappointing.  It does feel like Iniesta has more to do in Manchester before he returns to Barcelona or some other high level club.

[GIMN]

It is 13 years since Leicester City won the Premier League, in a campaign where they used just 23 players - the fewest in the division that season.  It is perhaps surprising that the man at the helm was Claudio Ranieri, a manager who had earned a reputation for being a "Tinkerman" over a decade earlier for the constant rotation of his then Chelsea side.  What might have been seen as an oddity back then, is now very much an important part of the game, with the most successful teams often being the ones with the deepest squads rather than the most talented starting XI.  Nonetheless, the "Tinkerman" label has stuck, with Ranieri revelling in it, once claiming: "I was the first! I am the Tinkerman, I take the flag!"

With domestic cups and continental competition to balance, the need for regular rotation is an understood necessity for Europe's top teams.  The challenge is to do so whilst maintaining the standard of performance required to compete on multiple fronts and keeping the players happy and engaged.  There is an endless supply of cautionary tales offered in the form of teams who've qualified for Europe only to fall apart the next season under the weight of these demands.  That cannot be said, however, of Manchester United.  Under the stewardship of Andrés Iniesta, United enter February unbeaten in 42 games in all competitions so far this year.  We took a look at their league games between November and January to see just how Iniesta rotates the squad to keep them fresh and competitive despite playing 24 games in only 86 days.

Whilst the idea of a "Strongest XI" might be considered an outdated concept, we are able to deduce (from minutes played this season) which players Iniesta tends to consider his preferred option in any given position.  We then looked at the starting lineup for every game to see how many of these players featured.  Interestingly, there wasn't a single game where the theoretical "Best XI" all player together.  Nor was there a chain of consecutive games where the same starting lineup was named.  Injuries played their part - Jadon Sancho's fractured ribs kept him out until mid-December, and a thigh injury picked up on international duty disrupted most of November for Arda Güler - but , aside from the occasional minor knock, Iniesta often had a full squad at his disposal.

Despite rotation, the theoretical "Best" players accounted for 73% of the starts given out in these games, and there were only 3 games - Wolves, Brentford and Sheffield United - where less than 50% of the starting lineup contained these players.  In fact, if you include cup competitions during this time, there was only 1 other game where this happened - a FA Cup 3rd round home tie against Wrexham, which consisted of only 3 "starting" players.  Whilst United's form has undoubtedly been impressive, it is perhaps surprising that 3 of their 4 draws during this spell have come when fielding 10 our of 11 starters.  A 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, which would have been worse had it not been for Sancho's injury-time leveller - always promised to be a difficult game, with the West Midlands side in impressive form as they look to earn a top 4 finish.  The 2 0-0 draws with Chelsea, both in late January, perhaps show that despite all the praise coming their way, the schedule is starting to wear them down.

A key part of the success of this approach has been in allowing players to rest when they are being rested.  This may sound obvious, but it is a luxury that is often only afforded to the deepest squads.  When a player is rotated, Iniesta will often drop them from the match squad entirely or, if they are needed on the bench, shows reticence to actually bring them on.  This helps the player recover and be in peak fitness for their next game; thus reducing the likelihood that they will fatigue early and need subsituting off.  That chart above shows the percentage of games started, percentage of minutes played when available (e.g whe not injured) and the percentage of time missed through injury.  The close correlation between games started and minutes played shows that players are not needing to be regularly replaced during games, allowing Iniesta to use his substitutions to address tactical issues rather than fitness ones.

We can't talk about Manchester United's rotation without addressing the biggest development in January:

Jadon Sancho's departure for Bayern Munich was, without doubt, a massive surprise.  A British record transfer fee of £135m rising to £185m was always going to be hard to turn down, even for a Manchester United team who are not exactly short of cash.  It is believed that Sancho himself was pushing for the move and with Leo Meinel, Endrick and Hannibal all competing for starts, United saw no need to stand in his way.  As big a surprise as that may have been, United's follow-up move might have been even more surprising, as the previous British record transfer fee holder, Jack Grealish, arrived on loan from Real Madrid.  The 33-year old has found himself out of favour at the Bernabeu, and with his contract expiring in the summer, this is a relatively low risk signing.  Whilst Meinel was considered a "starter" in our above calculations for the final 4 games, based on minutes played, Iniesta now has more freedom to choose Rashford's striker partner based on tactical match-ups.

Meinel has been Iniesta's go-to man as he is more comfortably playing between the lines in a similar role to that which Sancho played.  His ability in the build up phase is one of the reasons why United spent north of £100m for him in the summer, whilst his ability to score from close range shows how he offers a more physical dimension than the other strikers at Iniesta's disposal.  Endrick's goalscoring exploits, however, cannot be ignored - 17 goals in the last 24 games, including 4 hat-tricks.  This has given Iniesta the option to ask Rashford to play as the foil, dropping deeper and linking up play, whilst Endrick pushes the backline.  Few teams have the wealth of striking options available and this has, no doubt, played a huge part in United's success this season.

That is not to say that it has always been seemless.  Those points dropped against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Brentford see United's lead in the Premiership sit at only a single point over Liverpool, whose own season has been sensational; blemished only by their 1-0 defeat at Anfield to United.  Defensively, United's structure does look weaker when they rotate heavily in those areas, and Braga showed in their recent game the blueprint for exploiting it.

Much like United do with their false 9, Braga repeatedly dropped their striker deep, causing havoc in United's shuffled defence.  Whilst Henry Smith and Luke Rumble are, without doubt, exciting prospects for England, they are both still young and often got sucked in by Grilo's movement, opening up space for Osvaldo Alcarez to exploit.  United ran out 5-2 winners on the night, but Braga's opening goal, laid on by Alcarez - the on-loan United player had a fantastic game against his parent club - was something that happened often and it will be interesting to see if other teams try to take advantage in the coming weeks.

It would probably make sense to have added in a screenshot for Playing Time Happiness to show that the approach has been successful at maintaining morale, so here it is:

Edited April 16, 2023 by GIMN

[13th Man]

I like the way you went into rotation and that’s a nice visual! It’s always tricky to juggle the demands of twice weekly matches. Too much rotation and you lose fluidity, too little and the players are exhausted.

As always, the visual is nice and it seems you have a similar style - rest 2-3 players on average. I do try and make it so the big games feature the best 11, resting various players in the games either side, but with the depth at Man Utd’s disposal, the best 11 may shift depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent.

[GIMN]

11 minutes ago, 13th Man said:

I like the way you went into rotation and that’s a nice visual! It’s always tricky to juggle the demands of twice weekly matches. Too much rotation and you lose fluidity, too little and the players are exhausted.

As always, the visual is nice and it seems you have a similar style - rest 2-3 players on average. I do try and make it so the big games feature the best 11, resting various players in the games either side, but with the depth at Man Utd’s disposal, the best 11 may shift depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent.

As someone who often plays with a smaller squad than what I'm operating with here, I was pleasantly surprised at how easy it has been to keep players happy.  This focus came about when I noticed that Rashford, a "Star Player" had only played about 60% of the minutes he was available, and yet there hadn't been even a peep of discontent.  I'm sure winning games helps a lot in that respect.

It's not just Rashford - I expected to struggle to balance the needs of our strikeforce with 2 Star Players (Rashford and Sancho) and 2 Regular Starters (Endrick and Meinel).  They've all faced spells on the sidelines, meaning that Hannibal has got opportunities, so not even he is complaining.  Perhaps I should've subtitled the article as "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Injuries", as I feel that has certainly helped!  That, or maybe SI have just toned down playing time expectations.

[13th Man]

14 minutes ago, GIMN said:

"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Injuries"

Love me a classic movie reference. But yeah - I think player’s happiness is more about how many games are played in rather than actual minutes. Also seems to matter which games. Winning and playing that many games usually keeps everyone happy.

[lfds89]

Love the visuals about the squad rotation.

9 and then 10 games in a month is a disaster for fitness, but you handled it excellently. Great results!

[rich ruzzian]

Nice cashing in on Sancho. 

[GIMN]

When the Premier League was formed in 1992, one team would dominate it's formative years, winning 8 of the first 11 titles.  Manchester United, then under the stewardship of the inimitable Sir Alex Ferguson, were a near unstoppable force - completing a three-peat between 1998 and 2001 during a run which included one of the most memorable Champions League victories of all time.  The greatest achievement in Premier League history, however, was reserved for the 12th season, as Wenger's "Invincible" Arsenal side conquered the league without incurring a single defeat.  It's a feat that remains unmatched until this day.

Fresh off their first League title in 15 years, Manchester United are now chasing down that record.  The "Invincible" moniker has been shed by a fanbase that still recalls it's rivalry with Arsenal back in the late 90s/early 2000s, giving birth to "Iniesta's Immortals" - a name that, despite fan's assertions otherwise, means exactly the same thing.  If they do achieve their goal of an unbeaten season, it would be easy to focus the attention of the immense firepower of their rotating front three of Rashford, Endrick and Meinel who, in yet another nod to the 1990s, have been nicknamed REM.  Whilst United's success definitely owes a lot to their goalscoring exploits, it is the work of Martín Zubimendi at the base of their midfield 3 who lays the foundations for everything they do.

It's hard to say that Zubimendi has gone completely under the radar.  An £89m fee was required to prise him away from Real Sociedad in the summer - a price tag which made him United's record transfer until the arrival of Leo Meinel 3 weeks later.  Yet his job is an unglamorous one and, as such, he is often overlooked when pundits give out their plaudits.  If you take a peak at his numbers, they're not impressive - 1 goal and 3 assists in 3,832 minutes - and his per 90 metrics are worse than his predecessor, Rodrigo Bentancur's, in all but one area.  But watch the film, and you'll see a player whose ability to read the game and make the right decision makes him one of the best players to ever play the role.

This was no more evident than in United's 4-0 demolition of title rivals Liverpool at Old Trafford back in March - a game that essentially ended the title race and set Liverpool on a slump of a form they would never recover from.  Zubimendi regained possession for The Red Devil's on 14 occasions, bettered on the day only by Josip Šutalo.  The result may well have been different without him.  With United 1-0 up, Liverpool were pushing for an equaliser.  After evading the press, Baku had the ball in space and Dragomir Mladenović left his man to close down the Liverpool left-back.  This left Matheus Nunes free to break into a hole in the United defence.  Zubimendi's recognition of the danger, allowed him to sprint back and make a phenomenal last ditch header to stop the ball from reaching the danger man.

Zubimendi's athleticism is one of the more surprising aspects of his game, which allows him to cover a lot of ground.  This, in turn, allows United's back 3 to keep their shape.  Darwin Núñez is no slouch, and when Van Dijk found him on the left flank with space to run into, you'd expect Liverpool to cause trouble.  Normally, you would expect Šutalo to come across and try and block the lane for Darwin, which would cause the rest of the defence to have to shift over to cover the space.  Instead, Zubimendi takes the right angle and is able to nip in and steal the ball as soon as Darwin reaches the area.  His tendency to stay back means he is less likely to step up and pressure the opposition, but also means he is able to see the field and recognise the play before it has a chance to develop.

The reason he was signed, however, was his ball retention - and this is the one area where the numbers show he has improved on Bentancur.  Completing more passes per 90 and lossing possession less frequently, shows just how important Zubimendi has been to United's efforts to keep the ball and, more importantly, the opposition moving.  United average 58% possession, a 2% increase on last season and only second to Arsenal.  For a team that believes that the best way to prevent the opposition from scoring is to restrict them having the ball, this is a significant improvement.  An improvement that has seen last season's stingiest defence concede 30% fewer goals this time around.  And there is almost a direct correlation between Zubimendi's presence in the team and goals conceded - United have conceded 0.38 goals per game with him in the side, and 0.49 without him.

When he tore his groin muscle in training with 5 games remaining, United's chances of going unbeaten took a significant blow.

In fact, 4 minutes into the very next game it looked over.  Luke Rumble, who himself has struggled with injuries this season, took his place in the starting lineup; and the difference was immediately obvious.  The way he sagged off Zakharyan allowed the Russian to skip away from him with ease before setting up Chukwueze for the opening goal.  It is understandable that a 21-year old might not be at the same standard, even moreso in a game where United could officially seal back-to-back league titles.  Nonetheless, it was a costly error.

Maybe, in a weird way, it was just what was needed to light a fire under the team.  Endrick responded almost immediately, and Hannibal hit a hat-trick, as United eventually ran out comfortable 5-1 winners.  It also ended up being Rumble's last league appearance of the season, as he too succumbed to a groin strain in training.

Enter Noël Aséko Nkili.  The summer arrival from Bayern Munich has had a phenomenal season playing in rotation with Mladenović further up the field.  In the 90th percentile for pressures attempted & tackles won, and comfortable playing in the deeper position, he is more than capable of being an emergency option.  But as a manager, you hope that an emergency option is only ever that.  Someone who might step in for 10 minutes at the end of the game because of an injury, or a tactical need to conserve a lead.  Not someone you want to rely on screening your defence againt a Man City side in the ascendency under the guidance of Ernesto Valverde.  After taking an early lead when Šutalo rose to head home Güler's header, Man City responded immediately through Erling Haaland.  The league's top scorer got his second of the game in the 69th minute when, as shown above Geertruida was able to play him through.

It was a goal that exposed our reliance on Zubimendi, and shows the exact situation that he snuffed out against Liverpool when Darwin pushed forward.  With Aséko Nkili the man trying to cover, he takes an awful angle, finding himself behind the marauding full-back and forcing Pau Torres to engage.  This created the gap for Haaland to run into, and with 21 minutes remaining of the penultimate game of the season, our unbeaten run was over.

Until 16 minutes remaining of the penultiamte game of the season.  Güler beat the offside trap, pushed towards the byline before cutting back to Endrick who rescued a 2-2 draw!!  He would score twice more in the season closer, away against Leeds, to wrap up our "Immortal" season.

"Invincible", "Immortal", call it whatever you want, it's a great achievement.  But, when another team has already set that record, they will always hold that place in the history books, and you will forever be known as the second unbeaten team.  For that reason, it's important to find other ways that we can surpass the achievements of the Arsenal side of 2003-04.  An unbeaten league season is incredible.  Unbeaten in all competitions would be monumental.  We had already won the Community Shield (not that it should count), and an 118th minute Arda Güler winner in the Carabao Cup final against Liverpool, a mere 4 days after our 4-0 rout of them, has us well on our way.  We'd booked our places in the FA Cup Final against Championship side Burnley and the Champions League Final against Man City.

The FA Cup was a formality.  2 goals in 3 minutes just before half time, both set up by delightful defence splitting passes from Pablo Torre, put us in control.  Rashford wrapped up a 3-0 win midway through the second half with his 30th goal of the season, before Henry Smith was sent off for a rash challenge.  I believe that is the first red card we've received since I've been in charge.

Meinel had also scored his 30th goal of his season in that game, but that was not to be his last, as his raced onto Šutalo's long ball and placed it past Ederson 40 minutes into the Champions League final.  The game was short on chances, and when Haaland was injured early in the 2nd half, things were looking good for us.  His replacement Amine Gouiri had other ideas, though, and in the 94th minute after we failed to clear our lines from a corner, he pushed into the box and fired from close range...only for Güler to get across with a last ditch block just in time.

66 games.  59 wins.  7 draws.

I should end there, especially as the dashboard will house all the additional information I am going to include, but there are a lot of players who need to be highlighted beyond Zubimendi.  The strikeforce, REM, all finished with over 30 goals a piece.  Endrick led the way with 35, despite playing fewer minutes than Meinel and Rashford.  Meinel's 11 assists, however, make me very happy!

  

After saying in the summer I wanted to see more goal contributions from my mezzalas, both Güler and Torre stepped up BIG TIME, both registering a combined 33 goal and assists on the season.

 

Maybe I shouldn't have signed that contract in December.  This would've been a rather appropriate mic drop moment to pack my bags and find a new challenge.  Instead we set our sights on next season.  It's highly unlikely that we can improve upon this season, but we can aim to tread water.

[GIMN]

On 16/04/2023 at 18:36, lfds89 said:

Love the visuals about the squad rotation.

Thank you.  If I use the mini-pitches again, I think I'll need to tone down the pitch line colour a bit, but I really like the idea of being able to visualise the way the team changed game-to-game.

On 17/04/2023 at 10:50, rich ruzzian said:

Nice cashing in on Sancho. 

I'm a little sad about Sancho going, as I was really keen to see how he'd get on over the course of an entire season in that False 9 position, but there's no way I'm turning down that offer, and we're probably better off without him.  We've already received £20m from bonus conditions (10 league games, winning Bundesliga) and expect we'll get another £20m by the end of next season (20 league games, 20 league goals).  Doubt we'll get the £10m for winning the Champions League, but that would still mean we've made £175m from his sale.  That said, the more we make from the transfer, the more we'll need to spend to meet the board's objective of "Spend the original transfer budget".  I honestly don't know how I'll go about that if I get that objective again.

[warlock]

47 minutes ago, GIMN said:

"Invincible", "Immortal", call it whatever you want, it's a great achievement

Well, that sets a high bar . Brilliant season, brilliant summary!

[rich ruzzian]

Interesting analyses about Zubimendi. After reading that piece, one question comes to mind: Are you gong to upgrade his back-up(s)? 

[GIMN]

44 minutes ago, rich ruzzian said:

After reading that piece, one question comes to mind: Are you gong to upgrade his back-up(s)? 

Probably not.  Luke Rumble has just turned 22 and is showing a lot of promise.  I don't expect any of my players to be fault free, especially at that age, but I might consider changing the role utilised when he's in the lineup.  We also have İskender Gelgeç who spent last season on loan at Werder Bremen.  He is even younger, equally promising, and capable of dropping into defence if needed.

[john1]

Absolutely amazing season! Loving the depth of your writing and graphics!

[SixPointer]

I don’t know what’s better. The immortal season or these write ups!

I think like you said the timing would have been nice to bow out at the summit. A famous treble.

The fire  power in the man United side is certainly a draw to keep going. 

[rich ruzzian]

The mezzala players did really listen. The contributed way more last season then before. 

Really interesting to see how on earth you're gonna spend the entire transferbudget with this already incredible squad. 

[ZeroSens]

You should go to barcelona the moment you can :P 

[GIMN]

9 hours ago, john1 said:

Absolutely amazing season! Loving the depth of your writing and graphics!

Thank you.  Knowing my inability to pick an approach and stick to it; I'm sure my presentation style will have changed yet again by the end of the season 

9 hours ago, SixPointer said:

I think like you said the timing would have been nice to bow out at the summit. A famous treble.

18 minutes ago, ZeroSens said:

You should go to barcelona the moment you can :P 

It would be interesting to see how the game reacted if I did bow out.  Having resigned from the Spain job after winning the World Cup would I be tarnished with a reputation for quitting on teams at inopportune moments?  I guess I'll never know.

Obviously the Barcelona job would be the ultimate aim.  Real Madrid have won the league the last 4 seasons, but there are no signs of Barca parting ways with Xavi.  Having signed a new contract 6 months ago, I also hope they stay with him for at least another year or two.

8 hours ago, rich ruzzian said:

The mezzala players did really listen. The contributed way more last season then before. 

Really interesting to see how on earth you're gonna spend the entire transferbudget with this already incredible squad. 

9 hours ago, SixPointer said:

The fire  power in the man United side is certainly a draw to keep going. 

I'm absolutely delighted with Güler and Torre; they've been sensational.  Güler signed a new contract in December, which I hope will be enough to keep him away from the clutches of Real Madrid who are showing an interest.  I expect Torre will soon want a new contract (he's a squad player on £95k per week), so it'll be interesting if we can continue to balance their playing time and keep hold of them for years to come.

Rashford has also been extended until 2031, where he'll be 33.  It's a tricky one this, as I'm not going to be the manager who pushes a legend out the door before his time, but I'm really keen to see more of Meinel and Endrick playing together.  It's a very fortunate problem to have!

As for transfer budget, I'll be covering that in my next post, but I've decided I'm going to head into the summer comfortable with the idea of upsetting the board.

[GIMN]

Having brought success back to Old Trafford, it is no surprise that Andrés Iniesta is starting to be compared against Sir Alex Ferguson.  The inimitable Scot is still a towering figure at Manchester United 16 years after he retired and despite the encouraging start to his career, Iniesta still very much stands in his shadow.  Whilst it took Sir Alex 6 years to achieve his first league title, he built the foundations that ensured United's place as one of the world's greatest clubs in the years that followed.  A successful title defence followed in 1993/94, but the Alan Shearer spearheaded Blackburn Rovers prevented United from making it 3-in-a-row the following year. 

Ferguson responded by putting faith in youth, promoting Nicky Butt, David Beckham, Paul Scholes and the Neville brothers, Gary and Phil to the first team.  An 3-1 opening day defeat at Villa Park was disastrous, leading to the former Liverpool player and then BBC pundit, Alan Hansen to proclaim "You can't win anything with kids".  Those famous words will follow Hansen around for the rest of his life, as United claimed their 3rd title in 4 years as the aforementioned youngsters combined for 124 league starts.  It was a bold move by Ferguson that helped United transition into a period of dominance that saw them win 13 Premier League titles during his tenure.

We don't know if Iniesta is an avid scholar of English footballing history, but it seems that he has taken a leaf out of Ferguson's book ahead of the 2029/30 season.  Perhaps in an attempt to avoid a "Blackburn" coming along and spoiling their challenge for a third successive league title, this summer has seen Iniesta move on a number of first team players and replace them with a number of prospects from the youth teams.  Let's look first at the departures:

Christian Eriksen's retirement perhaps helped Iniesta avoid having to make a tough decision.  The Danish playmaker was not just a fantastic footballer, but his career renaissance after the shocking events of Euro 2020 was one of football's greatest stories.  His appearances were limited last season as Dragomir Mladenović and Noël Aséko Nkili surpassed him in the pecking order, and it seemed like the time was right for the 37-year old to hang up his boots.  The 4 other casualties in Iniesta's reshuffle do not bring about the same sentiment, but all had contributed as squad players in recent years.  Guéhi and Ávila can perhaps be seen as surprising moves, but the mature performances of 21-year old Henry Smith, signed from Blackburn last summer for £16.5m, have expedited their departures.  Puigmal and Madueke are in line for significantly more starting opportunities at Wolves and Fulham respectively.  With young defenders Louis Jackson and Rubén Moreno also sold this summer, United have raised over £160m in player sales.

In their place, Iniesta has promoted 5 players who all spent time out on loan last season.

 

 

Kevin Smith and Nicky Hagan are both academy graduates who United will be hoping are ready to step in and provide relief when required.  With the aforementioned Henry Smith battling Josip Šutalo for a starting spot, and Kaique due to return from another loan spell in Brazil in January, opportunities might be limited.  The season is long, however, and United will surely hope to compete on multiple fronts yet again.

İskender Gelgeç is the youngest player to join the first team squad, after a hit-and-miss season on loan at Werder Bremen.  He was often deployed as a centre-back, and whilst he is capable of fulfilling that role, the management at United have made it clear they see his future in midfield.  A £9.5m signing from Galatasaray in 2027, Gelgeç is already a full Turkish international.  The inclusion of Daniel Vázquez is possibly the most surprising.  He will likely be the backup to Vinicius Tobias on the right flank after Ryan Spicer was sent out on loan.  Vázquez has spent the last 2 seasons on loan at Eintracht Frankfurt after signing from Argentine side Racing Club in 2025, and made a solitary substitute appearance for United in 2026/2027 season.

He'll be joined by a former teammate in Osvaldo Alcaraz.  Signed from Racing Club the season after, Alcaraz lit up the Portuguese league with Braga last season, finishing as the competition's 3rd highest scorer.  A stellar performance against United in the Champions League group stage almost certainly piqued Iniesta's interest, and he'll hope to get playing time as a false 9 at various points throughout the season.

With Eriksen departing, there is also an opportunity for one of United's forgotten academy graduates.  Kobbie Mainoo has had spells with West Brom, Nottingham Forest and Brentford in recent years, where he became a mainstay of each team.  At 24, he might not fit the profile of "young" anymore, but he's expected to provide cover for Mladenović and Aséko Nkili.

Back in 1995, Alex Ferguson relied almost exclusively on the promoted youth players to inject life into the squad, with low cost signings Tony Coton, Nick Culkin and Raimond van der Gouw not making a single appearance between them.  Iniesta does not seem to be quite ready to put that much faith in those already available at the club.

Gabriel Spittler was the marquee signing of the summer - an £86m arrival from Bayern Munich.  Arguably the hottest left-back prospect in the world, Spittler had established himself as a regular starter in the Bayern side, contributing 15 assists over the last 3 seasons.  A contract impasse at the German club, sees him leave the club where his career started, as he looks to prove that he can do it in the Premier League.  Ability-wise he is an upgrade on Victor Kristiansen, but he will still have to earn his place over the incumbent Danish wing-back.  He'll be joined by Lazar Samardžić, a Bosman signing from Udinese, the club where he's been plying his trade for the last 8 years.  It's not entirely clear where he fits in, as he is probably most suited to playing the role filled by Güler and Torre, but you can never predict the impact of injuries or form over the course of the season and he arrives as a low-risk insurance policy.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  When Ferguson rang the changes in 1995, the league triumph was a vindication of his decisions; a signifier of his genius.  Iniesta will be hoping for the same, but it's a high-risk strategy that has the potential to come across as nothing but hubris.

[13th Man]

Invincible Iniesta. Immortal Iniesta. Immense, impressive, incredible Iniesta.

Granted it is Manchester United, but an entire season unbeaten is simply amazing.

Youth development is the angle to take now that you’ve hit the top as well. It’s a new challenge to see if you can bring in and develop a bunch of youngsters without letting the on pitch performance drop off too much (not that you can very well top the previous season. Though maybe you can win every match?)

[GIMN]

Dani Alves.  Cafu.  Marcelo.  Roberto Carlos.  Over the last 30 years, Brazil have had a knack for developing world class marauding full-backs.  After a tumultuos start to his career, Vinicius Tobias fits the profile to be the next player on that list, but the Manchester United star has yet to receive a call-up.  Having racked up 25 assists since the start of the 2027/28 season, his goal contributions have surpassed all 3 of the players ahead of him in the national side...combined.  We take a look at the player Brazil are missing out on.

A regular appearance on the NXGN50 list in his early career, things could've gone very differently for Vinicius Tobias had it not been for an unfortunate set of circumstances.  A move to Shakhtar was announced in July 2021, scheduled to go through in February the following year but, with war breaking out in the area, he was unable to make an appearance for the Ukrainian side.  Real Madrid swooped in and took him on loan, but EU rules meant he was unable to be registered with the main squad, consigning him to the B team.  By 2024, he was back in Brazil, plying his trade for Santos after a £4m move.  At 20-years old his career was hardly over, but the European dream certainly seemed at an end.  His performances in the Brasileiro Série A were good, but not necessarily spectacular.  His blistering pace made him a threat on the flank, and in the first 6 months of 2027 he registered 5 assists in 24 appearances.

Enter Manchester United. It was Andrés Iniesta's first pre-season with the club, and wholesale changes were being made.  Long-time right-back Diogo Dalot was shipped to rivals Arsenal for £50m and Jadon Sancho was pushed into the wing-back role in his 3-5-2 formation.  United needed a backup, and Vinicius Tobias fit the mold.  Maybe it was the comparisons to Dani Alves - a player Iniesta knew very well from their many years of success at Barcelona - maybe it was his price tag.  Whatever the driving factor, the £10.5m signing has proven to be a masterstroke. 

By the end of the 2027/28 season Vinicius Tobias featured regularly in the starting lineup and Sancho would eventually find himself being moved back up front to accomodate the Brazilian speedster.  The following year, he finished second in the team for assists, amassing 15 as United steamrolled all competition.  As we head into October of this year, Vinicius Tobias shows no signs of slowing down, with 4 goal contributions already.

There's a certain bullish quality that is required to play as a wing-back in the modern game, especially in Iniesta's system that often leaves them isolated on the flanks as the only wide player.  You need to trust that you'll be able to win your match-ups, even when the odds might seem against you.  Even when the game has not gone according to plan.  In the 83rd minute of United's home league game against Aston Villa, with the game tied at 0-0 despite United's dominance, Vinicius Tobias took matters into his own hands.  Or feet.  Whilst Villa were in a decent shape, there was space for Vinicius Tobias to run into and, more importantly, build up a head of steam.  The surging run down the right wing lifted the crowd.  The drilled cross, perfectly into the path of Endrick, sent them into raptures.  The Villa defence had finally been breached, and Torre was able to add another with minutes, as United got the 2-0 win their performance deserved.

Traditional wing-play might be what you expect from someone playing that position, but Vinicius Tobias is more than just a withdrawn winger.  His ability in deeper positions helps United in transition, and allows them to catch opporition defences unaware.  In a 2-0 win over Tottenham, this was in full display, as his delightful ball over the top for Endrick to volley home first time early into the second half allowed United to extend their lead and, ultimately, put the game to bed.  Dujon Sterling had just cleared the ball, and as Tottenham looked to push out, Vinicius Tobias had the awareness to see the space in front of him centrally to tuck in and offer a quick passing option for Šutalo.  A first time ball over the top, as the Tottenham defence was moving in the opposite direction shows the guile and vision in his game.

The mark of a true Iniesta player, however, is decision making.  Recognising when the play is on or, more importantly, when it isn't.  This was most evident in the Premier League opener against Arsenal.  Already 1-0 up after Rashford's 9th minute effort, Vinicius Tobias got space down the right wing to send in a cross.  With only the England striker in the box, he was able to identify the support in the channels.  A succession of quick passes between him, Meinel and Mladenović carved the Arsenal defence open for Arda Güler to fire home United's second in a 3-0 rout.

It is definitely true that Vinicius Tobias is better going forward than backwards, and Iniesta's 3-5-2 gives him the security behind to focus more on the attacking aspects of his game, but he's no slouch in the defensive game.  He's above the 90th percentile for pressures amongst all full-backs, and wins a solid 2.62 tackles per game at a rate of nearly 80% which, once more, shows him outperforming his contemporaries Dodo and Vanderson who sit ahead of him in national team contention.  What was once considered potential has now very much become reality for Vinicius Tobias, and if Brazil are serious about competing at next summer's World Cup, he should be one of the first names on the teamsheet.

It's been a whirlwind start to the 2029/30 season for Manchester United.  Having barely had time to register their successes last year, they were thrust into the Club World Cup, hosted in England and featuring 5 English teams.  A farcical expanded roster of teams, saw 3 games won by a margin in double figures, whilst Liverpool fell one short when they could only score 9 against Kawasaki Frontale.  A familiar sight for English fans as Manchester United and Liverpool squared off in the final, where Rashford and Güler's secured a 2-1 comeback win.  Gavin Bazunu was the hero in the Community Shield after a 0-0 between the same two sides was settled on penalties.  Samardžić got his first United goal and Osvaldo Alcarez scored on his debut as United completed a very early treble with a 3-0 win over Aston Villa in the Euro Super Cup.  With league following shortly therafter, United had already played Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa twice before the conclusion of August.

*One of the drawbacks of this approach is that the narrative kind of defines which games I highlight.  So I'll add one in here - the 2-0 win over Real Madrid was genuinely fascinating.  We struggled to contain them in the first half, but after targetting Tchouaméni (and Tchouaméni only) for intense pressing, Real Madrid switched to a 4-4-2 midway through the second half which allowed us to get a foothold in the game and an argubaly undeserved win.  Links take you to the dashboard, which has had a slight redesign to make future updates easier.

[13th Man]

I’m enjoying this new thematic write up theme - and the dashboard is nice to see the specifics as well.

I think I’ll be stealing the idea, but without the dashboard as I lack the necessary technical knowledge to do that in any simple way.

That young Brazilian seems the real deal, and there’s definitely something great about getting the best out of a player that hasn’t had the right opportunity yet.

 

[rich ruzzian]

You keep on rollin and rollin...

How many matches are you now unbeaten? 

[_Ben_]

On 20/04/2023 at 01:52, GIMN said:

Missed a couple of posts here but absolutely loved this one.

Interesting to see and, certainly in real life, a really risky decision to break apart such a dominant side and replace with youth. However, given the vision that Iniesta has and one that is probably forged from his own experiences, it feels really realistic and, clearly, is working.

Again, very happy to see Villa doing what Villa are doing!

[SixPointer]

Could really turn this into a hall of fame dynasty and topple the greatest managers that the British isles have seen!

I say this because I feel Andreas is settled more than ever in Manchester after considering a move before the treble. 

[canhsatgiaothong]

On 23/01/2023 at 01:37, GIMN said:

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

It's now late January - 2 months to go until our opening European Championship qualifiers against Romania and Latvia.  La Liga has finally reached the half way point, and we can comfortable that there's a reasonable amount of data we can use to start identifying players that might help propel us back to the top of the international rankings.  Statistics aren't the be all, end all, but they will serve as a valuable tool to ensure that we are focussing our scouting efforts in the right places.  Whilst I've been making the most of the privilege that comes with being the national team manager to attend some high profile games, it has largely been without purpose.

FM23 provides us with a whole load of new statistics to look it, which is great, but it can also be overwhelming.  A large part of today has been spent trying to identify which data points are useful to us and how best to use them to identify those possible hidden gems.  So let's have a look at our options at the base of midfield:

We identified 3 key priorities to how we are going to set up, and used this to inform how we want to manipulate the statistics available:

• Dominate possession, exhibiting patience with the ball
• Have confidence to play within tight spaces
• Prioritise players with intelligence, trusting in their qualities

On the left we have a breakdown of a player's passing tendencies - how often the pass safe, how often they progress the ball, etc...  On the right, we have turnover differential - how often they win possession compared to how often they lose it.  In the middle we have key pass frequency with bubbles indicator quality of chances (xA per key pass), and tackle frequency with bubbles indicating fouling tendency (fouls per tackle attempt).  It's a lot of information, but from here I can get a good feel for a player's game intelligence - their ability to progress the ball safely, to know when to commit to the challenge, and to be able to make that final pass.  From here we've been able to filter it down to 8 candidates.

Sure, a number of these players would have already been in consideration.  Nobody would be surprised to see Rodri or Thiago's name in there.  Whilst Busquets and Koke are known quantities despite their advancing ages.  There are a couple of players who might not have been at the forefront of my thoughts, however.  Campana, Parejo and Vencedor are all interesting players who each offer something a little different.  I'm very keen to attend some of their games to see if they pass the eye test.

In total we have 81 players now added to the National Pool, which is arguable a little on the small side.  That suits me.  Fewer players should hopefully mean we'll be able to scout all prospective call ups thoroughly, including those "established" players we might have otherwise given less priority to as they are known quantities.

Excuse me, I was really impressed with the chart you made. Would you mind sharing with me how you created it? I'm trying to take atributeless challenge and any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.  

[GIMN]

On 22/04/2023 at 15:58, 13th Man said:

I’m enjoying this new thematic write up theme - and the dashboard is nice to see the specifics as well.

I think I’ll be stealing the idea, but without the dashboard as I lack the necessary technical knowledge to do that in any simple way.

That young Brazilian seems the real deal, and there’s definitely something great about getting the best out of a player that hasn’t had the right opportunity yet.

Steal away.  I really enjoy your writing style, so I'd love to see what you come up with!  Figma doesn't support videos on the free version, which is a shame as it would be great to be able to have highlights from games in there, too, but...I have discovered that it does autoplay gifs, which could open up some more possibilities and help get around the 10mb file limit here.

Vinicius Tobias has been an absolute gem.  I don't keep up with the world of football as much nowadays, so I didn't know that he is actually an exciting prospect in real life (nor the tale of his untimely transfer to Shakhtar) - I was just delighted that he looked like a perfect cheap replacement for Dalot.  He was the first proper analytics signing for Man Utd, and it looks to have worked.

On 22/04/2023 at 18:00, rich ruzzian said:

You keep on rollin and rollin...

How many matches are you now unbeaten? 

We're up to 82!!!  That Champions League final against PSG is still living rent-free in my head though!

On 23/04/2023 at 14:34, _Ben_ said:

Missed a couple of posts here but absolutely loved this one.

Interesting to see and, certainly in real life, a really risky decision to break apart such a dominant side and replace with youth. However, given the vision that Iniesta has and one that is probably forged from his own experiences, it feels really realistic and, clearly, is working.

Again, very happy to see Villa doing what Villa are doing!

It's kind of the exact opposite of my first couple of transfer windows, where I arguably made the first team worse but considerably improved the squad depth.  This time around, we've not lost any de facto starters, and brought in possibly the best left-back in the game; but definitely reduced the back-up quality in favour of the long term.  I suppose we'll find out what the impact is on the short-term when the December/January congestion comes into play.

Villa really seem to be building something.  They'd be 2nd if they drew with us (or 1st, if they beat us by 7 goals).  They sold Ollie Watkins to Wolves in the summer, so only Dougie, Kamara, Ramsey and Sinisalo (3rd choice) remain from the original team.

On 23/04/2023 at 15:22, SixPointer said:

Could really turn this into a hall of fame dynasty and topple the greatest managers that the British isles have seen!

I say this because I feel Andreas is settled more than ever in Manchester after considering a move before the treble. 

It would certainly be an interesting challenge, although I don't think I'll ever be able to fully shake off my personal disgust every time we win a game.  Narratively I think it makes sense for Iniesta to stay a couple more seasons and then, if the Barcelona job doesn't open up, set his sights on the other leagues.  Maybe, in that sense, with an eye to topple one of his mentors, Guardiola.

[GIMN]

8 hours ago, canhsatgiaothong said:

Excuse me, I was really impressed with the chart you made. Would you mind sharing with me how you created it? I'm trying to take atributeless challenge and any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.  

There's a few posts where I've gone into detail regarding the metrics I use - the one you've quoted, and this one here:

It's just a case of creating a view in the player search with the stats I want to look at, "Printing" the file as a web page from the FM menu, and copying the data into a spreadsheet.  I then connect that up to Looker Studio, and use the graphs there to create the visualisations.  Things like "Turnover Differential" is just Possession Lost subtracted from Possession Won - so I have to add those calculations in.

[tyler16]

First time commenter here! Blown away by the level of realism and attention to detail in this thread.

Will be checking in frequently going forward.

[GIMN]

In his debut campaign at Chelsea, 2016-17, Conte became the first manager in half a century to win the English league title with a back three. Four years later, Tuchel used a similar system at the same club, meaning Chelsea became the first team in two decades to win the European Cup with a three-man defence.  By the end of the 2020-21 season, 30 percent of lineups featured a back three.

Fast forward 10 years, and that number has dropped to 15%, with only 3 Premier League teams fielding a three-man defence - Tuchel's Tottenham, Graham Potter's Crystal Palace and Andrés Iniesta's Manchester United.  In terms of success, the contrast couldn't be starker.  Tuchel is holding on by the thinnest thread as Tottenham find themselves in 12th halfway through the season, whilst Crystal Palace are hovering above the relegation zone in 16th.  Manchester United, on the other hand, boast a 100% record after 20 games and haven't suffered a league defeat since the 2027/28 season.  If we look further afield, the three-man defence is severely under-represented in Europe's Big 4 - Filippo Inzaghi's Athletic Madrid and Domenico Tedesco's VFB Stuttgart are the only teams to deploy it regularly in LaLiga and Bundesliga.  Serie A - the spiritual home of the three-man defence - only has 4 teams and of those, only Internazionale are in the top half of the table.

It begs the question - why has it worked for Manchester United, and why is no-one following the template?

 

To understand United's success, we need to understand what they do different, and this begins by looking at the two guys who line up most frequently on the outside, Pau Torres and Henry Smith.  Pau Torres was a £51m signing from Villarreal in January 2028, which saw Iniesta reunited with the standout player at the heart of Spain's defence in their European Championship and World Cup victories.  He arrived with a reputation for being a player comfortable on the ball, able to kickstart attacks from deep whilst being a composed and commanding presence defensively.  He has not disappointed.

Despite being an effective progressive passer, Torres has registered only a single assist in his 102 games to date.  This might sound like a surprise, especially in the era of wide centre-backs and ball-playing defenders, but it's key to how Iniesta looks to build up play from the back.  Rather than bomb forward or play risky balls over the top, United's centre-backs are expected to stay deep and central, providing options to recycle possession and help to dominate the ball.  As a result, all 4 central defenders regularly in the rotation have over 80 passes completed per 90 minutes.

On the other side, Henry Smith is equally comfortable on the ball, albeit less progressive.  The 21-year old centre-back has been nothing short of a revelation since joining from Blackburn for £16.5m in the summer of 2028, often being picked ahead of Josip Šutalo for the big matches.  Despite fulfilling the same role as Pau Torres, Smith is as close to an "enforcer" as United have; aggressively winning headers and stepping up to win the ball back.

Looking back over the last 20 games, we can see the areas of the pitch where Torres (left) and Smith (right) win possession.  A high defensive line is to be expected from top teams nowadays, and we can see that United are active in winning back the ball high in their own half.  Smith in particular is very active in that area approximately 30-35 yards from goal, showing his ability to read the game and engage before danger can develop.

An underappreciated skill for a centre-back is to understand the intention of the opposition.  In United's 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge in December, Smith repeatedly showed the ability to understand where the ball was going and to adjust accordingly.  As shown above, Smith's eyes are on Anthony rather than his man, Diogo Jota.  He is able to see that his short-lived former teammate, has shaped to dink the ball into that gap behind Maxence Lacroix for the Portuguese striker to run into and Smith is able to get across and snuff out the chance.  In the next passage, the same two Chelsea players are looking to combine.  With Diogo Jota's body shaped to run in behind the high line it would be easy for Smith to either step up and try and play offside or drop straight back and restrict the route to goal.  Instead he runs wide, because he sees that Anthony is looking to play the ball down the line.  It's risky.  If he gets it wrong, Diogo Jota is in behind.  But he doesn't.  Instead he is able to intercept in space and put United on the front foot, which wouldn't have been possible if he hadn't read the play.

A good defender can't rely on stopping attacks before they develop alone.  Arguably, a defender's reputation is often built on the last minute interventions - the body-on-the-line blocks, the goalline clearances, the lunging tackles and throwing their head into challenges amongst flying boots.  Thankfully for United, their centre-backs are more than capable in that regard, too.  A prime example above, in another 2-1 victory, this time against Liverpool at Old Trafford in October.  Jude Bellingham's run lost his marker, Mladenović, and he was in behind, but Smith has the ability to take the right angle to get back and make the last-ditch tackle despite lacking the speed to match Liverpool's dynamic midfielder.

We've looked previously at how Martín Zubimendi's role in front of the back-3 helps provide solidity and protection from counter-attacks, and the stay-deep nature of United's backline is possibly surprising for a team associated with a possession-heavy, free-scoring offence.  The three-man defence is often associated with teams fighting for survival, or who look to win the game in transition, yet United are eschewing this tradition.  Of course, that defensive solidity has been evident on scorelines, with United conceding only 14 goals last season.  Now 20 games into the EPL season, Gavin Bazunu has only had to pick the ball out of the back of the net on 5 occasions (Jordan Pickford has done so once in the league, too).

Whilst United have been irrepressible in the league, there astounding winning run did come to an end in the Carabao Cup Quarter Finals, as Newcastle won 9-8 on penalties after a 0-0 draw.  It was a defeat celebrated around the country, and it will be interesting to see if other teams follow the blueprint set out by Newcastle to frustrate United more frequently.

[GIMN]

On 25/04/2023 at 17:20, tyler16 said:

First time commenter here! Blown away by the level of realism and attention to detail in this thread.

Will be checking in frequently going forward.

Glad to have you on board, and thank you for the compliment.  I will apologise now for the infrequency of updates!!