Player valuations still make no sense at all, and it's still a problem

[NineCloudNine]

11 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Immediately post signing player's valuations seem to skyrocket. Signed this guy on a free in the Champo and he went up to over 40m pounds immediately. 

 

Why is that weird?

[whatsupdoc]

On 22/05/2024 at 17:30, NineCloudNine said:

Why is that weird?

40m pounds seems excessive for a late 20s Croatian player nobody wanted except a team just promoted into the championship. 

Edited July 9 by whatsupdoc

[NineCloudNine]

31 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

40m pounds seems excessive for a late 20s Croatian player nobody wanted except a newly promoted championship side. 

Does it? Based on what? Your impression? What should it be? How do you arrive at what you think the right number should be? If you think it’s off, have you bug reported it with a rationale as to why?

BTW are you sure the game has valued him at ~£40m? He has an ‘asking price’ set at £41m, which suggests either that value has been set manually or he has a release fee of that amount.

Edited May 22 by NineCloudNine

[whatsupdoc]

51 minutes ago, NineCloudNine said:

Does it? Based on what? Your impression? What should it be? How do you arrive at what you think the right number should be? If you think it’s off, have you bug reported it with a rationale as to why?

BTW are you sure the game has valued him at ~£40m? He has an ‘asking price’ set at £41m, which suggests either that value has been set manually or he has a release fee of that amount.

The last round of feedback I submitted was in November and hasn't been read so think I'll wait on bug submissions. 

Will let others decide if it's reasonable to them but thought I'd pop another example into the thread for discussion. 

Edited May 22 by whatsupdoc

[endtime]

Player valuations are based on values entered by researchers into the database for each reputation band, here's the values for Hungary (spoilered just in case):

Spoiler

I don't know how the game extrapolates values for players above the 131-140 range, the highest reputation player in the Hungarian league in the original DB is 135. The game should probably give players a bigger reputation boost for good displays in European cups or international tournaments, or better yet, the whole reputation system should be overhauled. 

[NineCloudNine]

2 minutes ago, endtime said:

Player valuations are based on values entered by researchers into the database for each reputation band, here's the values for Hungary (spoilered just in case):

  Hide contents

I don't know how the game extrapolates values for players above the 131-140 range, the highest reputation player in the Hungarian league in the original DB is 135. The game should probably give players a bigger reputation boost for good displays in European cups or international tournaments, or better yet, the whole reputation system should be overhauled. 

Just to add to this that in the database (and thus at the start of the game) player reputation and current ability are completely aligned (in fact as seen in your screenshot the number used is the same).

As the game progresses, reputation can outstrip CA if a player performs well in a successful team (or indeed decline relative to CA if the player and team do badly).

In the Hungarian case one of the examples given by the OP was a £9.5m offer, which is double the real life record fee received by a Hungarian club and nearly 4 times the highest entry in the database field you showed here, which suggests the game is scaling the values well (albeit from a fixed point which is open to dispute).

[Cloud9]

9 hours ago, whatsupdoc said:

40m pounds seems excessive for a late 20s Croatian player nobody wanted except a newly promoted championship side. 

A players valuation is determined by how much time they have left on their contract. It will deteriorate over time, but when you first sign a player it will be quite high. 

Sosa is also an exceptional player, not just some late 20s Croatian player. Just look at those attributes!

His market value will likely come down to a realistic level of around 15-20m or so, which is fairly comparable to what he'd cost IRL.

Edited May 22 by Cloud9

[Cloud9]

On 18/05/2024 at 07:41, XaW said:

Had a look at Transfermarkt to see what transfers usually go for in Hungary and looked at Ferencvaros specifically. The highest transfer OUT for the club that I could find was Besic to Everton back in 2014/15 for £4.8m. I also found one more for £4.5m this season, but other than that I don't think I saw many over even £2.5m. So if that is the base of the league, then I'd say it seems reasonable.

And most players will have artificially high value in England, have you seen the dross that gets bought for millions there in recent years?

The game tries to mirror that as closely as possible to real life, but of course it can be wrong. If you think you have examples of it, report it in the bug tracker. Based on what I can see from this single screenshot, it doesn't look to bad for me, but it could be more than that and if so, then a bug report is the way to get it improved.

It's one of the big advantages to scouting countries other than the big ones ie. Brazil, Argentina, France etc.

Sure there's lot of potential there and the price will be much higher. If you send your scouts to smaller countries the price of that one high PA wonderkid who comes through will be peanuts.

If you play as a low reputation side this becomes especially important as they'll actually be wiling to join you as well. 

[scythian12]

Let's play a fun game; marvel at my starting centre backs in a top Luxembourgish team (Rep just short of 5000, league rep just north of 120

 

Attempt to guess their market values. Also try to think / suggest what would be appropriate. (a league on the level of IRL Serbia-Austria-Denmark roughly)

[scythian12]

On 11/11/2023 at 21:55, santy001 said:

So you've used the editor to inform your decision to make a player purchase at a level you wouldn't normally do, because you saw the PA which is something you don't ordinarily have access to through the game.

You're then unhappy that Juventus aren't basing their price on this value that you have access to, but the AI doesn't. He's a decent player who likely in the position he plays doesn't accrue fantastic average ratings and at a club who don't likely have the power long term (particularly if you remove the human manager element) to stay competing at their current level. 

The sensible solution is if you receive an offer you're unhappy with, reject it. If the player becomes unhappy about you rejecting the offer then it does show Juventus have hit a pressure point because the other attributes you likely haven't checked (so not PA) result in a player who would want to make that move. 

The suggestion the AI does not look at PA is just plain wrong. I had a player who I was not that into, youth prospect (I think I signed him on relatively small wages on an agent offer), kinda a rotational option, I was not quite sure whether to keep hold of him or no, you see his appearances in a league with 30 matchdays, roughly on par with Slovenia-Hungary-Slovakia in 2028-2030. Then Chelsea bid completely out of the blue - quite unfathomably why, except they peeked at his PA, which then I also did, it was at roughly 180. There was literally no other reason why Chelsea would have wanted to sign him, he did not have massive rep or CA. Sold him with a two-year loan back clause, to hopefully make him develop rather than let him rot a place called Big Club reserve team where talented but unambitious players go to die. Well not a lot came from that, but that is slightly beyond the point.

Do you think any big team would bid for a rotational youth prospect in such a league? (TBF it still amazes me that they do ingame)

 t

Edited May 23 by scythian12

[NineCloudNine]

12 minutes ago, scythian12 said:

The suggestion the AI does not look at PA is just plain wrong. I had a player who I was not that into, youth prospect (I think I signed him on relatively small wages on an agent offer), kinda a rotational option, I was not quite sure whether to keep hold of him or no, you see his appearances in a league with 30 matchdays, roughly on par with Slovenia-Hungary-Slovakia in 2028-2030. Then Chelsea bid completely out of the blue - quite unfathomably why, except they peeked at his PA, which then I also did, it was at roughly 180. There was literally no other reason why Chelsea would have wanted to sign him, he did not have massive rep or CA. Sold him with a two-year loan back clause, to hopefully make him develop rather than let him rot a place called Big Club reserve team where talented but unambitious players go to die. Well not a lot came from that, but that is slightly beyond the point.

Do you think any big team would bid for a rotational youth prospect in such a league? (TBF it still amazes me that they do ingame)

 t

The AI has ‘access’ to PA in the same way your scouts and coaches do in-game. So they can spot prospects, just like your scouts can, which means with a margin of error dependent on the scout’s ability. Clearly in this case Chelsea’s scouts are significantly better than your coaches.

What the AI cannot do is look at the precise PA number.

And to your ‘would this happen IRL?’ question, yes it happens all the time. The youth teams of every major club contain young players from all sorts of places, limited only by regulations about under 18s moving country. They are spotted by sharp scouts, at youth tournaments, or by videos sent in by agents.

Edited May 23 by NineCloudNine

[scythian12]

2 minutes ago, NineCloudNine said:

The AI has ‘access’ to PA in the same way your scouts do in-game. So they can spot prospects, just like your scouts can, which means with the same margin of error. What the AI cannot do is look at the precise PA number.

And to your ‘would this happen IRL?’ question, yes it happens all the time. The youth teams of every major club contain young players from all sorts of places, limited only by regulations about under 18s moving country. They are spotted by sharp scouts, at youth tournaments, or by videos sent in by agents.

Yeah, but no, but yeah, but no. No (big) club should be amassing talent that has miles of ability gap to their own squad and then sit on him and do nothing with him like a dragon on his pile of treasure. I concede that not every wonderkid should develop fully to the extent of his abilities. But for big 6 in England, the big 3 in Italy, PSG, etc. to be signing 90-110 CA players showing little promise on the pitch appears quite ridiculous to me. Just look at my poor boy (btw also marvel at his fee for Man City. Even from a current-day Luxembourg club, if City wanted to sign ANY player, it would start at least at 100.000 € because the clubs know that City has money and it would be chump change for them)

[XaW]

21 minutes ago, scythian12 said:

The suggestion the AI does not look at PA is just plain wrong.

They don't, but they do have access to a PPA, perceived PA. As @NineCloudNine writes, it's the same access your coaches has. The level of attributes for staff impact it, but anyone can be right or wrong in that regard. And yes, reputation also impacts the PPA, as does the actual PA. But, no the AI does not have any more access to the actual PA than your staff.

[scythian12]

18 minutes ago, scythian12 said:

Yeah, but no, but yeah, but no. No (big) club should be amassing talent that has miles of ability gap to their own squad and then sit on him and do nothing with him like a dragon on his pile of treasure. I concede that not every wonderkid should develop fully to the extent of his abilities. But for big 6 in England, the big 3 in Italy, PSG, etc. to be signing 90-110 CA players showing little promise on the pitch appears quite ridiculous to me. Just look at my poor boy (btw also marvel at his fee for Man City. Even from a current-day Luxembourg club, if City wanted to sign ANY player, it would start at least at 100.000 € because the clubs know that City has money and it would be chump change for them)

...which actually makes me think of a mechanic which would be relevant to the discussion in the topic, the fact that the transfer offers need not only reflect the financial power of the player's club, but also that of the bidding club. I mean the game quite egregiously already does this with player wages where players do not only have wage demands based on their own situation but also the offering club's wage and transfer budgets. Which can be a good or a bad thing depending on the situation. (e. g. players demanding lower wages when they are still at a financially weak club, but often agreeing to wages relative to their playing time and wage budget when they are free transfers, such as Bekker in the above example). So the bully clubs of this world would need to cough up more cash for transfer offers instead of the frankly ridiculous low balls they do at the moment so that the players are forced to engage with a deeply frustrating transfer negotiation screen for the sake of 'immersion'. You feel quite robbed when a club who can and should pay more just makes offers which are insultingly low, even compared to the quite loopy transfer value range. This is the crux of the issue atm.

Edited May 23 by scythian12

[wazzaflow10]

7 hours ago, scythian12 said:

Let's play a fun game; marvel at my starting centre backs in a top Luxembourgish team (Rep just short of 5000, league rep just north of 120

 

Attempt to guess their market values. Also try to think / suggest what would be appropriate. (a league on the level of IRL Serbia-Austria-Denmark roughly)

I'll play for fun. With the caveat that before I answer market values are primarily relative to your league. At least that's been my experience.

For example a Championship level player who has a contract with a premier league club will have a PL market value. But if a premier league club doesn't want them they won't fetch that price. You'd have to settle for the going rate for Championship level players which would be significantly less than their market value. This is why when you sign a player from a small nation into a bigger nation there's a big jump in market value right after signing. The value of that player is based on the assumption they are at least a "decent" level player of that league. There's other factors for sure like contract value and length and player happiness but the baseline from what I've seen has been usually centered around the league the team they are contracted to is playing in.

They look like championship level players so if a championship level team wanted to sign them I'd start by asking for the going rate of a championship level player from them. I believe that's roughly around €1M - €2M for players that don't have PL level experience/potential. I don't think I'd get it, I'd probably have to give them a discount because I'm not in the championship. If the players don't have a reputation of a championship level player it's unlikely you'll get a championship price. The Championship club is taking on "some" risk by signing players who are in a league considered below them so the price has to reflect that. You can mitigate some of that risk with add-ons though, either sell-ons or after so many league appearances etc. A quick peak a the going rate for current Denmark based players is between €500k - €1M. It suggests to me that the MV for a players in a similar league albeit newer to the stage would be around those values but probably less than that. Jumping up 100 places in league ranking in 10 years isn't going to automatically provide you the same boost as a league that has been in that tier for much longer.

I'd wager that both players are somewhere between €100k-€250k in MV. You've only got 1 year left on their contracts and you're paying both < €1k a week. It doesn't mean you'll sell them for more or less, its just what they're valued at for the club.

I find this transfer to be pretty relavent to this discussion. MV of approx €350k-€500k for his whole career. And by this metric when Rapid Wien sold him to Hertha BSC they "lost" nearly €2M euros of value by selling him for only €500k. I'm sure when he moves on from Hertha, they won't get €2.5M either.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/haris-tabakovic/profil/spieler/203123

[scythian12]

1 hour ago, wazzaflow10 said:

I'll play for fun. With the caveat that before I answer market values are primarily relative to your league. At least that's been my experience.

For example a Championship level player who has a contract with a premier league club will have a PL market value. But if a premier league club doesn't want them they won't fetch that price. You'd have to settle for the going rate for Championship level players which would be significantly less than their market value. This is why when you sign a player from a small nation into a bigger nation there's a big jump in market value right after signing. The value of that player is based on the assumption they are at least a "decent" level player of that league. There's other factors for sure like contract value and length and player happiness but the baseline from what I've seen has been usually centered around the league the team they are contracted to is playing in.

They look like championship level players so if a championship level team wanted to sign them I'd start by asking for the going rate of a championship level player from them. I believe that's roughly around €1M - €2M for players that don't have PL level experience/potential. I don't think I'd get it, I'd probably have to give them a discount because I'm not in the championship. If the players don't have a reputation of a championship level player it's unlikely you'll get a championship price. The Championship club is taking on "some" risk by signing players who are in a league considered below them so the price has to reflect that. You can mitigate some of that risk with add-ons though, either sell-ons or after so many league appearances etc. A quick peak a the going rate for current Denmark based players is between €500k - €1M. It suggests to me that the MV for a players in a similar league albeit newer to the stage would be around those values but probably less than that. Jumping up 100 places in league ranking in 10 years isn't going to automatically provide you the same boost as a league that has been in that tier for much longer.

I'd wager that both players are somewhere between €100k-€250k in MV. You've only got 1 year left on their contracts and you're paying both < €1k a week. It doesn't mean you'll sell them for more or less, its just what they're valued at for the club.

I find this transfer to be pretty relavent to this discussion. MV of approx €350k-€500k for his whole career. And by this metric when Rapid Wien sold him to Hertha BSC they "lost" nearly €2M euros of value by selling him for only €500k. I'm sure when he moves on from Hertha, they won't get €2.5M either.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/haris-tabakovic/profil/spieler/203123

Interesting. I would like to see one or two more tips. Evidently, the reputation of the league and the team needs to be factored in as you say. It has to be also said that I was rather surprised that Dekker was prepared to sign for me given his standing in the game at the time, he  was by far my star player but is now 'only' in the top circle in terms of CA. Would be more useful as a DM with his stat line, but alas. McGroary is a Chelsea academy product with high potential and the pedigree that comes with that name, I ususally would have tipped him to be picked up by a Championship club as a youth prospect, that is what happens to these kinds of players. Less proven than Dekker, but has so much more yet to give for the footballing world / potential clubs looking into him.

[wazzaflow10]

38 minutes ago, scythian12 said:

Interesting. I would like to see one or two more tips. Evidently, the reputation of the league and the team needs to be factored in as you say. It has to be also said that I was rather surprised that Dekker was prepared to sign for me given his standing in the game at the time, he  was by far my star player but is now 'only' in the top circle in terms of CA. Would be more useful as a DM with his stat line, but alas. McGroary is a Chelsea academy product with high potential and the pedigree that comes with that name, I ususally would have tipped him to be picked up by a Championship club as a youth prospect, that is what happens to these kinds of players. Less proven than Dekker, but has so much more yet to give for the footballing world / potential clubs looking into him.

Off topic a bit but I would disagree about McGroary's potential based on your scouts opinion of him and his current CA. He's got good Championship tier mental attributes, maybe relegation club PL level. His physicals are probably below average though imo. It'd be one thing to be slow but be tall and have a jumping reach of 16+. He's a below average jumper for someone that is 188cm/6'2" with a jumping reach of 13. I think that kind of relegates him to the Championship-level leagues for his career. Mentals can generally improve as players get older. Physicals are a little harder (as they should be) to improve - you can't take someone slow and make them as fast as Mbappe.

With that in mind I think Championship level teams with PL aspirations (read: teams with money) wouldn't really be interested in him until he proves he can compete against higher level players. That would probably put a damper on his value and what you could sell him for now and in the future. I'd guess he's a player who bloomed early (hence why he was at Chelsea) but doesn't really have much to grow (hence why he was released). He'd probably get a higher wage packet at a championship club but might be a mid table side and maybe even be a sub/rotational player. It's probably more fun to be a regular starter/important player win league titles maybe get a few Europa or Europa Conference league matches in. Sounds way better than slogging through 46 Championship matches and only playing in 20-30 of them.

Edited May 23 by wazzaflow10

[Cloud9]

17 minutes ago, wazzaflow10 said:

Off topic a bit but I would disagree about McGroary's potential based on your scouts opinion of him and his current CA. He's got good Championship tier mental attributes, maybe relegation club PL level. His physicals are probably below average though imo. It'd be one thing to be slow but be tall and have a jumping reach of 16+. He's a below average jumper for someone that is 188cm/6'2" and a jumping reach of 13. I think that kind of relegates him to the Championship-level leagues for his career. Mentals can generally improve as players get older. Physicals are a little harder (as they should be) to improve - you can't take someone slow and make them as fast as Mbappe.

With that in mind I think Championship level teams with PL aspirations (read: teams with money) wouldn't really be interested in him until he proves he can compete against higher level players. That would probably put a damper on his value and what you could sell him for now and in the future. I'd guess he's a player who bloomed early (hence why he was at Chelsea) but doesn't really have much to grow (hence why he was released). He'd probably get a higher wage packet at a championship club but might be a mid table side and maybe even be a sub/rotational player. It's probably more fun to be a regular starter/important player win league titles maybe get a few Europa or Europa Conference league matches in. Sounds way better than slogging through 46 Championship matches and only playing in 20-30 of them.

I agree...he looks quite poor for a centerback. Short, fairly weak and slow and without the ability to progress the ball (and importantly w/a mistake in him w/ composure 9). I usually don't want anyone near the backline who's got a 9 in his core mental attributes like that. Looks like a decent CB choice if you were in league two ish of English football? 

I'd view him as a strong BWM(s) where he can take advantage of his tackling, agi, bravery, ability to run a lot and strong personality (great on a BWM).

Edited May 23 by Cloud9

[wazzaflow10]

2 minutes ago, Cloud9 said:

I agree...he looks quite poor for a centerback. Short, fairly weak and slow and without the ability to progress the ball (and importantly w/a mistake in him w/ composure 9). I usually don't want anyone near the backline who's got a 9 in his core mental attributes like that. Looks like a decent choice if you were in a league two ish of English football? 

I'd view him as a strong BWM(s) where he can take advantage of his tackling, agi, bravery, ability to run a lot and strong personality (great on a BWM).

Agreed. I wasn't even considering his on the ball ability much but noted he was a poor passer/first touch as well. The composure makes him very vulnerable to a high press in higher leagues. Probably better off suited in leagues that play much slower and have lower blocks. I hope he likes hot weather!

I do think he could get by as an NCB with a stopper role in the Championship that plays direct but I don't think a yo-yo club has much use for him on the field. Mid table Championship side seems to be the absolute limit but probably as a impact sub/rotational player.

I could see BWM though I don't know how much retraining him into a DM would eat into whats left of his PA.

[Cloud9]

2 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

Agreed. I wasn't even considering his on the ball ability much but noted he was a poor passer/first touch as well. The composure makes him very vulnerable to a high press in higher leagues. Probably better off suited in leagues that play much slower and have lower blocks. I hope he likes hot weather!

I do think he could get by as an NCB with a stopper role in the Championship that plays direct but I don't think a yo-yo club has much use for him on the field. Mid table Championship side seems to be the absolute limit but probably as a impact sub/rotational player.

I could see BWM though I don't know how much retraining him into a DM would eat into whats left of his PA.

Other thing worth adding to the conversation is that player fees fluctuate throughout the season. I see much higher player values in January than compared to the Summer window.

[wazzaflow10]

16 minutes ago, Cloud9 said:

Other thing worth adding to the conversation is that player fees fluctuate throughout the season. I see much higher player values in January than compared to the Summer window.

That sounds about right. It should be to reflect the difficulty of replacing a player midseason.

How else would Andy Carroll be worth £35M?

[scythian12]

5 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

Off topic a bit but I would disagree about McGroary's potential based on your scouts opinion of him and his current CA. He's got good Championship tier mental attributes, maybe relegation club PL level. His physicals are probably below average though imo. It'd be one thing to be slow but be tall and have a jumping reach of 16+. He's a below average jumper for someone that is 188cm/6'2" with a jumping reach of 13. I think that kind of relegates him to the Championship-level leagues for his career. Mentals can generally improve as players get older. Physicals are a little harder (as they should be) to improve - you can't take someone slow and make them as fast as Mbappe.

With that in mind I think Championship level teams with PL aspirations (read: teams with money) wouldn't really be interested in him until he proves he can compete against higher level players. That would probably put a damper on his value and what you could sell him for now and in the future. I'd guess he's a player who bloomed early (hence why he was at Chelsea) but doesn't really have much to grow (hence why he was released). He'd probably get a higher wage packet at a championship club but might be a mid table side and maybe even be a sub/rotational player. It's probably more fun to be a regular starter/important player win league titles maybe get a few Europa or Europa Conference league matches in. Sounds way better than slogging through 46 Championship matches and only playing in 20-30 of them.

Approaching the winter transfer market and Serie A Udinese are supposedly sniffing around McGroary. Curious of your bets on the first offer. First team player in a league with rep 110-120 for two years now, had his first outings in the CL this autumn, 20 years old, 1,5 years remaining on a 90k € / year contract. I would hazard his ability is round the 105-110 CA mark.

[Cloud9]

1 hour ago, scythian12 said:

Approaching the winter transfer market and Serie A Udinese are supposedly sniffing around McGroary. Curious of your bets on the first offer. First team player in a league with rep 110-120 for two years now, had his first outings in the CL this autumn, 20 years old, 1,5 years remaining on a 90k € / year contract. I would hazard his ability is round the 105-110 CA mark.

Are you offering out to them? Or are they making an offer you to unprompted?

I find you get x2-3 amount of cash in an unsolicited interest. 

[wazzaflow10]

6 hours ago, scythian12 said:

Approaching the winter transfer market and Serie A Udinese are supposedly sniffing around McGroary. Curious of your bets on the first offer. First team player in a league with rep 110-120 for two years now, had his first outings in the CL this autumn, 20 years old, 1,5 years remaining on a 90k € / year contract. I would hazard his ability is round the 105-110 CA mark.

Oh I wouldn't have a clue because I'm not sure why a Serie A club would be interested, unless either your scouts have poor JPA or Udinese are desperate for cover. I'd start lining up replacements though because any decent offer I'd probably sell and see if I could find another player. He shouldn't be hard to replace at your level and with 18 months left on a contract its a good time to sell before value starts dropping. I'd also see if you can get a bidding war going if Udinese are truly interested. That will help drive the price up.

[scythian12]

13 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

Oh I wouldn't have a clue because I'm not sure why a Serie A club would be interested, unless either your scouts have poor JPA or Udinese are desperate for cover. I'd start lining up replacements though because any decent offer I'd probably sell and see if I could find another player. He shouldn't be hard to replace at your level and with 18 months left on a contract its a good time to sell before value starts dropping. I'd also see if you can get a bidding war going if Udinese are truly interested. That will help drive the price up.

So that was a red herring possibly (though on the active interest level curiously), or the interest very short-while end of Dec, but no interest for him throughout the rest of the window.

But, here he is at end of the winter window:

In contrast to Dekker

Which shows that Player Rep is much much more important in valuation than CA, PA or age. I find Dekker hugely overvalued and McGroary undervalued. I was braced for initial bids at around 30-45k for a player from the AI on who's wages alone I spent 140k in the previous 1,5 years. I cannot understand how this transfer valuation system can be upheld. Look at new winter signings Alexis Olmedo (you see a similar pedigree and valuation as with Dekker)

And Janev for comparison, who has been signed for the loan farm, he would be awesome but his speed... nonetheless, again, no real influence of the CA on the transfer value, it is mostly governed by his 100 appearances in Macedonia.

But also my other Irishmen are strangely valued

New signing Frannie.. Diaper

And star GK Keena

With very comparable CVs in terms of age, level and amount played at, importance in the team, wage and contract length. Why the 100 fold difference in valuation???

 

/here the original players half a year ago/

Edited May 24 by scythian12

[wazzaflow10]

1 hour ago, scythian12 said:

So that was a red herring possibly (though on the active interest level curiously), or the interest very short-while end of Dec, but no interest for him throughout the rest of the window.

But, here he is at end of the winter window:

In contrast to Dekker

Which shows that Player Rep is much much more important in valuation than CA, PA or age. I find Dekker hugely overvalued and McGroary undervalued. I was braced for initial bids at around 30-45k for a player from the AI on who's wages alone I spent 140k in the previous 1,5 years. I cannot understand how this transfer valuation system can be upheld. Look at new winter signings Alexis Olmedo (you see a similar pedigree and valuation as with Dekker)

And Janev for comparison, who has been signed for the loan farm, he would be awesome but his speed... nonetheless, again, no real influence of the CA on the transfer value, it is mostly governed by his 100 appearances in Macedonia.

But also my other Irishmen are strangely valued

New signing Frannie.. Diaper

And star GK Keena

With very comparable CVs in terms of age, level and amount played at, importance in the team, wage and contract length. Why the 100 fold difference in valuation???

 

/here the original players half a year ago/

Part of it is probably due to playing for AZ and Real Betis are proof there is some high level talent that your other players haven't shown. I don't think its a reputation is A therefore value is B sort of thing. I'm not sure SI are in a position to give us the exact formula. But I'm kind of pleasantly surprised that players who have played in a top 5 league have significantly higher value than those who have not. To me it represents there is some value in a players pedigree beyond the current situation. It speaks to if you want a more "known" player you have to pay for it. Granted a good number of these players are likely going to be free transferred because they are ultimately replaceable. We have to remember the player valuations are also an accounting exercise for the club to balance the books.

[zsolt86]

On 21/05/2024 at 00:49, turnip said:

PSG is a clown show and using them as an example of anything other than "how not to run a football club" is a bad idea.

I haven't touched this save for a long time because I've been enjoying my other save, but here we go. As a club, we have £314m in the bank with a transfer budget of £140m. We've made £120m net from transfers this season. 

Viktor was signed for his MFRC of £725k from Helsingborgs in the summer. He played all 8 games in the Champions League Group Stage, getting 3 Assists, 1 Goal and an average rating of 7.53 in those matches. In real life, with performances like that against Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Real Madrid, PSG, Stuttgart, Club Brugge and Schalke, he would be being talked up as one of the best young midfielders on the planet. I expect to get bids of around £5m in the summer for him. 

At 18 years old, Erik Valencsik has 18 caps and 5 goals for a Hungary team who've had quite possibly the worst manager in their history. He has 3 goals and 3 assists in 7 Champions League matches so far this season, with an Average Rating of 7.3. Newcastle offered £3.5m for him in the January transfer window. 

Diego Villalba is a goalkeeper whose only flaw is a better First Touch than half the real-life keepers in the Premier League. He's a couple of weeks away from getting his Hungarian nationality and therefore an EU passport. He's one of the best young goalkeepers in the world. Porto bid £12,25m for him in January. 

Pedro Hernandez is a centre-back with no flaws, other than being average at Passing. As he is, he'd be a reliable 3rd centre-back for any top team in Europe playing with a back four, and that ignores the fact he's accomplished as a DR and WB/R. Dortmund offered £9.5m for him in January.

 

Transfer Values are broken.

Thank you for you post, for some people it's hard to admit that this is not normal, so they try to throw it back on me. Your reply fully reflects the problem.

[zsolt86]

On 20/05/2024 at 14:03, Costav said:

I don't think this is comparable. When Denis Man was bought by Parma he was a young (20 y.o.) with very good potential, sold for 11M. Here you are discussing about Solanke (27 y.o.) which is at the best of its potential (i.e. in time, it could only worsening).

Market value depends on several factors, that's because 1M in Hungary has not (proportionally) the same value in England.

Although it is not completely true (malcom 60M fee - valuable 45M now on TransferMarkt; Neymar 90M fee - 45M now; Otavio 60M fee, 30M now; etc...), I would not take it as an example. Saudi Pro League offered very high wages to players that are "old" (or, over 30 y.o., besides gabri vega and few other exceptions). The likelihood that European clubs would have gained the same amount of money for those players is very low. 

 

Some can state that you are wrong here. I don't mean to attack you, of course. I am just trying to make you see things from another point of view.

As an example, PSG is always winning la LIgue1 and arriving at the final stages of the UCL. However, beside Verratti and Neymar, they sold a lot of players at less than 15M. Following your reasoning, they should be sold at, at least, the double, because such players were title winners, UCL semi-final players, etc...
 

To conclude, market value includes lot of parameters, and the fact that you participated to the UCL group stage every year can be mainly given to "internal poor" competition (IRL Ferencvaros won the last 6 tournaments) and to the fact that, even if you have a low european ranking as a league, opponents during preliminary rounds may be not as good as your team is. In addition to this, it is also rational to consider that poorer countries will receive lower offers (1M in Hungary has not the same value in England in real terms). However, you can decide not to sell your players, and trying (in the long term, which is at least 8/9 years) to make all the hungarian football movement grow up (in terms of reputation).

I see you have an answer for everything. Explain one more thing  :).

Why after I decided to leave the club (I got tire of players bitching about not being allowed to leave for the ridiculous £1,5m fees), suddenly all the player values had jumped up? Cannot check coefficient ranking, but during the last season I was the only Hungarian team playing in a European competition. I know you have a good scientific explanation to this as well, but let's be serious

 

[zsolt86]

On 20/05/2024 at 14:03, Costav said:

I don't think this is comparable. When Denis Man was bought by Parma he was a young (20 y.o.) with very good potential, sold for 11M. Here you are discussing about Solanke (27 y.o.) which is at the best of its potential (i.e. in time, it could only worsening).

Market value depends on several factors, that's because 1M in Hungary has not (proportionally) the same value in England.

Although it is not completely true (malcom 60M fee - valuable 45M now on TransferMarkt; Neymar 90M fee - 45M now; Otavio 60M fee, 30M now; etc...), I would not take it as an example. Saudi Pro League offered very high wages to players that are "old" (or, over 30 y.o., besides gabri vega and few other exceptions). The likelihood that European clubs would have gained the same amount of money for those players is very low. 

 

Some can state that you are wrong here. I don't mean to attack you, of course. I am just trying to make you see things from another point of view.

As an example, PSG is always winning la LIgue1 and arriving at the final stages of the UCL. However, beside Verratti and Neymar, they sold a lot of players at less than 15M. Following your reasoning, they should be sold at, at least, the double, because such players were title winners, UCL semi-final players, etc...
 

To conclude, market value includes lot of parameters, and the fact that you participated to the UCL group stage every year can be mainly given to "internal poor" competition (IRL Ferencvaros won the last 6 tournaments) and to the fact that, even if you have a low european ranking as a league, opponents during preliminary rounds may be not as good as your team is. In addition to this, it is also rational to consider that poorer countries will receive lower offers (1M in Hungary has not the same value in England in real terms). However, you can decide not to sell your players, and trying (in the long term, which is at least 8/9 years) to make all the hungarian football movement grow up (in terms of reputation).

Your explanations also contradict each other. You're saying that Solanke in my save doesn't have any value because he's 27, but in the meantime you're giving an explanation to my Saudi Pro League point with mentioning some players who are all over 27  . This way we can argue this topic forever. Btw I don't see Transfermarkt as a valid information source, for me that's just a website where the admin guys make some changes on their spreadsheets here and there and then share those numbers, luckily for them they got noticed by people(but this is just my opinion, probably wrong again). This is not personal, but you're trying to convince me that I'm looking at things from the wrong perspective, while the same post has a bunch of other people sharing screenshots and facts, which confirm that I'm not that wrong. 

[Costav]

10 hours ago, zsolt86 said:

but this is just my opinion, probably wrong again

We may say we agree on something!

[deltasfd11]

Em 22/05/2024 em 08:12, Costav disse:

Which team are you?
What is your budget?
Where do you want to buy players from?

IRL is difficult to buy top players too, because Premier League teams are way richer than other european clubs. In addition to this, if you consider buying top players when you are not a top team, I think this is exactly what a Football game needs to replicate. IRL there are no such transfers (Mbappe is leaving PSG to go to Reak Madrid, not a "Ï arrived in the semifinal of Europa League three times" club).

 

I figured out it depends mainly by two factors: (i) Market value doesn't align with the price evaluation of the owner team; (ii) the kind of offer you make (or, better, the discount rate of your offer).

Let me expand these concepts:

i) The fact that the market value is X does not mean that a team will sell the player for that price. Of course, this is an indication of the value of the player, and usually the owner clubs follow those values. However, if you think about it, when a club would like to buy your players you may want to ask an higher price because the player is so valuable for you. That's exactly what happens with AI clubs.

ii) If you pay everything cash and at the moment you buy the player, your money have a value. If you want to pay in 3 annual installments, adding bonuses etc...your offer cannot be considered at the same level of one offer giving all money in one solution. This is basic economics. 10M now values more than 10M divided in time. That's why if you make offers including installments and/or bonuses, they will be weighted less than other offers with the same amount.

no brother, i love FM but im not stupid

fm engine got some broken stuff

its impossible to buy players from mid teams in europe. not my issue.

also its not difficult for teams as real madrid or psg or man city to get players, they get what they want, they also have spare money, within uefa financial rules..

i love FM but they need to fix budgets, value and reputations mechanics system

 

[fc.cadoni]

28 minutes ago, deltasfd11 said:

no brother, i love FM but im not stupid

fm engine got some broken stuff

its impossible to buy players from mid teams in europe. not my issue.

also its not difficult for teams as real madrid or psg or man city to get players, they get what they want, they also have spare money, within uefa financial rules..

i love FM but they need to fix budgets, value and reputations mechanics system

 

To be honest, you can give your thoughts in Sports Interactive how things should work, according to your POV.

https://community.sports-interactive.com/forums/forum/680-football-manager-feature-requests/

- Which part is broken (budgets, transfer values, reputation, all of them).
- How they need to approach with IRL examples in order to be more understandable and have a base point.

To name a few points.

[theopert]

Two points.

One is about the stock price (valuation) and other is about the dividend (wage x contract).

Clearly, if you pay a player $100,000 p/y for 3 years, contract is worth = $300,000 and look to recoup when selling. This is the dividend.

The stock price is what demand and supply laws govern regarding player market availabilty and finances of the buyer.

You'd think a players attributes/persona would be the governing laws for valuations, and not club and league reputation.

You might argue, as my left and right brain often do, a players value should decrease with age, as option contracts do, but, if a club wants to buy a player for instant gratification with a short term goal, that's their decision.

Clubs don't have to sell and clubs don't have to buy.

Reason I write this, if I buy a burger at McDonalds, it will taste the same whether I eat in a poor housing commission house or a rich mansion.

Perhaps there should be a fair wage and valuation commission to stop potential exploitation.

Edited June 7 by theopert

[santy001]

I've no reason to believe it would be any different for AI clubs, but as a result of playing a network game while discussing player values I came to realise we are actually seeing different valuations assigned to players at AI clubs. Having moused over the transfer value there is some information provided about what it is based on and so scouting/agent interactions can no doubt refine the value but it does mean there isn't a universal valuation in the current system being applied. 

The range in some instances have resulted in a situation where I'm seeing a player valued at say £20m-£40m and the other person in the save was seeing a substantially higher value in the one instance we discussed. I'd pulled the trigger and they were a little surprise I got the player at that value. 

I'm a big fan of the move away from the more definitive presentations of information in the past (a specific % for condition for example) and this is an area where the game has done that. I expect it can benefit from further refinement but the fact that I know now different valuations are presented to different teams - at least in a network environment - is a positive. It means as managers were relying on something from our backroom staff to also help gauge whether a player is worth further interest from our side. 

[Herakles]

7 hours ago, theopert said:

Reason I write this, if I buy a burger at McDonalds, it will taste the same whether I eat in a poor housing commission house or a rich mansion.

Reminds of the movie The Worlds Greatest Athlete. Hard to find but had all the attributes/persona, though didn't want life in a big city.

Club and League reputation shouldn't matter.

 

[theopert]

2 minutes ago, Herakles said:

Reminds of the movie The Worlds Greatest Athlete. Hard to find but had all the attributes/persona, though didn't want life in a big city.

Club and League reputation shouldn't matter.

Good coroberee.

[NineCloudNine]

47 minutes ago, Herakles said:

 

Club and League reputation shouldn't matter.

 

Reputation in FM means more than the literal dictionary meaning of the word. It encompasses financial power, the appeal of the league, the quality of player and the strength of the squads. So in that sense it absolutely should matter - and it is obvious IRL that the strength of the club and league makes a huge difference to the transfer fees paid & demanded.

I would like Reputation to be a less all-encompassing blunt tool in FM, but even if it was changed you would still see huge disparities in player valuations based on where they play, even for players of equivalent ability.

[wazzaflow10]

5 hours ago, santy001 said:

I've no reason to believe it would be any different for AI clubs, but as a result of playing a network game while discussing player values I came to realise we are actually seeing different valuations assigned to players at AI clubs. Having moused over the transfer value there is some information provided about what it is based on and so scouting/agent interactions can no doubt refine the value but it does mean there isn't a universal valuation in the current system being applied. 

The range in some instances have resulted in a situation where I'm seeing a player valued at say £20m-£40m and the other person in the save was seeing a substantially higher value in the one instance we discussed. I'd pulled the trigger and they were a little surprise I got the player at that value. 

I'm a big fan of the move away from the more definitive presentations of information in the past (a specific % for condition for example) and this is an area where the game has done that. I expect it can benefit from further refinement but the fact that I know now different valuations are presented to different teams - at least in a network environment - is a positive. It means as managers were relying on something from our backroom staff to also help gauge whether a player is worth further interest from our side. 

I wonder how much of this is the stature of the club you're playing as? There's always a big club tax for Man Utd or Real Madrid it seems in real life.

3 hours ago, Herakles said:

Club and League reputation shouldn't matter.

It absolutely should. Players playing in the top leagues in the top teams should be worth more than players playing in lesser leagues even if their abilities are equal. Valuation shouldn't be directly tied to some number of how good players actually are and can actually do but rather how good the world perceives them to be and what they could potentially do. It should be reflective of pedigree otherwise the game is just telling you who the best player are without ever seeing a single attribute.

 

[KingCanary]

3 hours ago, wazzaflow10 said:

I wonder how much of this is the stature of the club you're playing as? There's always a big club tax for Man Utd or Real Madrid it seems in real life.

It absolutely should. Players playing in the top leagues in the top teams should be worth more than players playing in lesser leagues even if their abilities are equal. Valuation shouldn't be directly tied to some number of how good players actually are and can actually do but rather how good the world perceives them to be and what they could potentially do. It should be reflective of pedigree otherwise the game is just telling you who the best player are without ever seeing a single attribute.

 

I'm a bit skeptical about values in the game but I totally agree with this.

The same player at a club in the Hungarian Premier League and at Liverpool should absolutely have different values as the amount they'd cost to sign from each club is obviously going to be different. This is an area of the game where it has vastly improved over the past few years, as you'd previously get tiny teams demanding £30m for their top young players, despite the fact you could likely buy the whole club for that amount of money.

[wazzaflow10]

5 minutes ago, KingCanary said:

I'm a bit skeptical about values in the game but I totally agree with this.

The same player at a club in the Hungarian Premier League and at Liverpool should absolutely have different values as the amount they'd cost to sign from each club is obviously going to be different. This is an area of the game where it has vastly improved over the past few years, as you'd previously get tiny teams demanding £30m for their top young players, despite the fact you could likely buy the whole club for that amount of money.

Yes there should be some obvious exceptions. For example Madrid paid €70M for Endrick which is obviously much more than most Brazilian teens go for when they move to Europe.

The game could do with some faster moving reputation for U18/U21 players in big youth tournaments. Playing well in those tournaments should give them a big, big boost in perceived CA/PA as well as reputation to attract larger fees than your standard youth player. It would also make that player less likely to join the smaller European clubs so it'd be much harder to wonderkid hunt.

I do think there is something kind of wonky about the values this year in the sense of I've seen players I've sold go from being worth £100M to being worth £300M right after being sold. It'd be good to get some clarification on what causes that from SI. Is it just the perception or is the game trying to put a price on the player but also say "not for sale" unless you really pay up.

[jamesgrhm0]

On 11/11/2023 at 14:25, turnip said:

I know that SI still have their immovable position that player valuations are just a guide - but they've never been just that, and it's been an issue for years. And it's never actually been addressed.

A case study.

This is Leozinho. He's my first-choice D(R) or WB(R), or Libero when we play with a Libero. We signed him a couple of years ago from Palmeiras; initially on a loan which we made permanent at the end of the season.

So far, we've had 18 months from him as a very good right-sided defender. 

Also, I have the Editor enabled for this save, so I know not only how well he plays for us, but his CA and PA too. His PA is very very good. Which is why I spent £16m to sign him. It's more than I usually spend at this sort of club, but we had the money, so I thought 'why not'.

But lots of teams want him. Specifically, at the moment, Juventus. And this isn't a random "let's see if we can unsettle him and get him cheap" deal - they really want him. 

So why, when I've spent £16m to sign him, we've got plenty of money, he's got two-and-a-half years left on his contract and is on the verge of a call-up to the Brazilian National Team, are Juventus throwing out insultingly low bids like this for him?

 

Oh yeah, it's because of that utterly arbitrary number the game's just slapped on the player by way of a 'Valuation' (see the first screenshot). Based on some combination of 'value left on contract', 'player reputation', 'club reputation' and 'league reputation'. You could argue - and people have - that those are all very sensible things to base a player's valuation on, but the fact is, there isn't a club in the real world who would sell Leozinho for less than £25m in this same situation. (And honestly, I'd be looking for closer to £40m).

The problem this causes is that it's impossible to do the 'real world thing' and not have your player get royally pissed off at you. And this isn't even the most egregious example from my save at the moment.

My players are all replaceable if the right bid comes in, but because the rules aren't applied evenly, I'd have to go and spend £10m to replace Leozinho with a player I'd be receiving bids of £5m for before the end of the season. 

It's the kind of thing that makes every single transfer window sap my enthusiasm, because despite having more money than the GDP of some small nations, I'm fighting to break even on transfers. 

 

And it's also really frustrating because I do think transfers have improved in FM24. So having to deal with this idiocy for yet another year is disappointing. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

And I do realise that the club reputation is probably the biggest factor here. Another thing SI have failed to sort out in years. Here's our performance in the UCL over the last few seasons to show why we shouldn't be sandwiched between Lokomotiv Moscow and Qarabag on the 'Reputation' list.

 

 

I mean you're already, let's face it, describing a completely unrealistic situation where: you know the exact potential a player can get too, MTK Budapest have spent £16M on a player (would never happen), a player at MTK close to getting into the Brazil national team etc etc. Many aspects of this are pretty much pure fantasy but then you complain and want it to match exact real world conditions (when this situation would never occur in real life.)

What is the record transfer for the sale of a player from a Hungarian club? It's probably about £5M.

 

The highest valued player currently on Tranfermarket in Hungarian football is €6M. So you're doing things that are completely unrealistic to real life (because it's a computer game and yiu can) Juventus are actually acting more realistically. The fact is competition and Europan reputation should affect Transfer values. You're playing in Hungary, your players shouldn't be worth £50M.

Even in real life now, if there was such a layer playing in Hungary, he would maybe go for £20-30M but that's it. The fact is clubs are more circumspect buying from lesser competitions cos they're playing at a lower level so have more to prove yet.

In your example, Juventus should be willing to pay more for that player, that much is fair but don't get mardy about something being unrealistic when you're doing something yourself that is totally unrealistic anyway!

[scythian12]

On the other hand, City has just offered a deal 2,5 M up to potentially 9 M for this guy

[Costav]

On 07/06/2024 at 18:52, wazzaflow10 said:

Is it just the perception or is the game trying to put a price on the player but also say "not for sale" unless you really pay up.

I agree with everything you mentioned prior to this sentence and I do believe the market value in the game is intended to work in this way! 
I may also agree with the fact that price fluctuations are a bit exaggerated sometimes, but I find the principle behind it totally correct.

Something that I would like to be revised is the 6-to-9 months no-moving period after a player move or sign a new contact: again, the rationale behind it is 100% fair, but there are some cases (teams with very high reputation, poor utilization...) when the player may want to join the interested team because it's an opportunity that you cannot miss.
 

[scythian12]

Nothing to see, everything normal and works as expected

22 May 2038

2 June 2038

 

Edited June 15 by scythian12

[NineCloudNine]

2 hours ago, scythian12 said:

Nothing to see, everything normal and works as expected

22 May 2038

2 June 2038

 

I’m sure your two screenshots with no context and no explanation are, in your head, communicating a very profound point.

I have no idea what that point is though.

[scythian12]

1 hour ago, NineCloudNine said:

I’m sure your two screenshots with no context and no explanation are, in your head, communicating a very profound point.

I have no idea what that point is though.

Compare values before & after. And remember a week has passed. You can handily jump back and forth between the two images with the arrows left and right if you enlarge them, that makes it easier.

Edited June 15 by scythian12

[jamesgrhm0]

On 15/06/2024 at 16:32, scythian12 said:

Compare values before & after. And remember a week has passed. You can handily jump back and forth between the two images with the arrows left and right if you enlarge them, that makes it easier.

Why did the values drop so dramatically? I've heard of this happening when you're in a low ranked nation when you get several seasons in but nobody knows why.

[fm_08/09]

On 15/06/2024 at 13:26, scythian12 said:

Nothing to see, everything normal and works as expected

22 May 2038

2 June 2038

 

Let me guess, you were in European competition on 22 May. On the 2 June the competition ended.

I have noticed managing Pro Vercelli, that my striker was valued at €92M, we won the CL final the player scored. the next day he was valued at €52M

[fm_08/09]

Btw, in my save Pro Vercelli is best team in the world having won the Serie A/CL past two years and the Serie A is ranked 1st above the PL.
Players values remains high until end of CL season, that is when I want to sell players and make profit but their value drop by %25-%50. It makes it impossible to buy players from mid-table French, dutch, or Portuguese teams.
As a work around I have to sell my players in January + buy players from the Balkans.

[scythian12]

8 hours ago, fm_08/09 said:

Let me guess, you were in European competition on 22 May. On the 2 June the competition ended.

I have noticed managing Pro Vercelli, that my striker was valued at €92M, we won the CL final the player scored. the next day he was valued at €52M

If you play with a vanilla database, send your before and after savegames with a bug report to SI. They pretend the problem does not exist as it is mostly Build a Nation saves that have it which almost exclusively use a user-made db.