Games 25 and 26: Switzerland vs Germany live from the Frankfurt Arena BBC2 8pm AND Scotland vs Hungary live from the Stuttgart Arena BBC1 8pm

[Coulthard's Jaw]

Possible line-ups

Switzerland: Sommer; Schär, Akanji, Rodríguez; Widmer, Xhaka, Freuler, Aebischer; Ndoye, Embolo, Vargas

Germany: Neuer; Kimmich, Rüdiger, Tah, Mittelstädt; Andrich, Kroos; Musiala, Gündoğan, Wirtz; Havertz

Germany are expected to maintain their 100% record by the Opta supercomputer, predicted to win in 52.3% of data simulations.

Mark Chapman presents coverage with analysis from Conor Coady, Frank Lampard and Joe Hart, and commentary by Steve Bower.

Possible line-ups

Scotland: Gunn; Hendry, Hanley, McKenna; Ralston, McGregor, Gilmour, Robertson; McTominay, Adams, McGinn

Hungary: Gulácsi; Fiola. Orbán, Dárdai; Bolla, Á. Nagy, Schäfer, Kerkez; Sallai, Szoboszlai, B. Varga

The Opta supercomputer predicts a close-fought encounter, with Hungary winning 37.8% of pre-match simulations and Scotland triumphing in 37.6%.

Gabby Logan presents coverage with analysis from Alan Shearer, David Moyes and Rachel Corsie, and commentary by Steve Wilson and James McFadden.

Germany - Have qualified, playing for top spot here

Switzerland - Probably have enough with 4 points and the GD to be safe

Scotland - Need to win, preferably win well, and cross their fingers.

Hungary - Even with a win, 3 points and their GD look very unlikely to be enough

-----------------------

Big day for Scotland, can they reach the knock out stages? As you can see, these games are mighty tough for them

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 19:13 by Coulthard's Jaw

[Darren Moores Mum]

Only 8pm kickoffs tomorrow and Monday.

You can't just go from 3 fixture slots down to 1 like that. Ease us in.

[m_fenton]

Said before the tournament that Scotland will win a game, so I guess it'll have to be this one.

[Rob1981]

Scotland are doing it... lightning can't strike 12 times

[Rebs]

Bigup Scottish peeps, so hope you win. 

[Rob1981]

4 hours ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Scotland - Need to win, preferably win well, and cross their fingers.

Shouldn't really need to worry about their GD as long as they get to four points.

It is true that all six groups can still end with a third place team that have got to four points... but:

• In Group B this can only happen if Albania beat Spain
• In Group C this can only happen if Slovenia beat England AND there is also an outright winner in the Denmark-Serbia game
• In Group D this can only happen if Netherlands fail to beat Austria
• In Group E this can only happen if one of the MD3 games is a draw
• In Group F this can only happen if Georgia beat Portugal

So for Scotland to win and then still get squeezed out by FOUR other third place teams also on four points... at least four of these five things would need to happen.

Edited Saturday at 23:19 by Rob1981

[Rob1981]

Here are the different ways the final table could pan out:

GERMANY will win the group if they avoid defeat.  They will be runner-up if they lose to Switzerland.

SWITZERLAND will win the group if they beat Germany.  If they fail to win they will still be the group runner-up if Scotland don't beat Hungary.

SCOTLAND will almost certainly finish third with a win.  If Switzerland lose AND Scotland win, then Scotland COULD finish as runners-up and push Switzerland down to third.  But this only happens if there is also a significant shift in terms of the goal difference.  And even then, finishing third with four points will be enough for either Switzerland or Scotland to qualify... unless four or more of those above scenarios play out across the other five groups.

HUNGARY can finish third with a win and then must hope things in other groups go their way later in the week.  But they are likely to need a few goals if they want to be ranked above any other third place teams also finishing on three points... because they are starting the night with a GD of -4.

And if Scotland and Hungary draw... it's still not mathematically impossible for Scotland to qualify from third with only two points.  Hence why I've still coloured them yellow and not red in these tables.  You COULD have situations where the Group B, Group C and Group F third place teams also only get to 1-2 points.  But more likely than not, a Scotland-Hungary draw sends them both home.  In fact, it would be great news for a load of teams in the other groups if this group goes first and then the third place team only gets a couple of points.

Edited Saturday at 22:32 by Rob1981

[Wavelberry]

This is it. The moment we've all been waiting for. A win and the run to the QFs starts here with BIG STEVE AND THE BOYZ!

[Wavelberry]

Actually Scotland will win 1-0 and not qualify with 4 points as that's the most Scottish thing that can happen.

[Rob1981]

22 minutes ago, Wavelberry said:

Actually Scotland will win 1-0 and not qualify with 4 points as that's the most Scottish thing that can happen.

Win 1-0, then Austria take something against Holland... chances are Scotland will be cheering for an England win on Tuesday to confirm qualification

Edited Sunday at 09:46 by Rob1981

[Gary_Parker]

40 minutes ago, Wavelberry said:

Actually Scotland will win 1-0 and not qualify with 4 points as that's the most Scottish thing that can happen.

Winning 2-0 with injury time to go and concede to go out on goal difference. 

 

[Rob1981]

12 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

HUNGARY can finish third with a win and then must hope things in other groups go their way later in the week.  But they are likely to need a few goals

On reflection, if Hungary were to win by any score... I don't think it's that unlikely that a couple of groups finish with the third place team only getting to two points.

• Group C third place finishes on 2 points if England beat Slovenia
• Group B third place finishes on 2 points if Croatia don't beat Italy and Albania don't beat Spain
• Group F third place finishes on 2 points if Czech Republic don't beat Turkey and Georgia don't beat Portugal

Getting two of those three scenarios doesn't seem that unlikely.  So it could be a year where three points gets you through, regardless of goal difference. 

The stats guy I quoted in the other thread gives Hungary a 70%+ chance of progression, even if they only get a 1-0 win.

[Rob1981]

I don't think those other potential third place finishers with only two points are much help to Scotland though. 

If Scotland draw tonight and THEY only finish on two points... there might be a couple of other two-point third place teams as well, but Scotland would still have a GD of -4 for comparison purposes.  But they might get through with a draw if, say, Spain and Italy both avoided defeat and then England went and smashed Slovenia by 4+ goals.

Edited Sunday at 10:38 by Rob1981

[Rob1981]

I think I'm going for a walk, my head is spinning already

[StevehFC]

Never been more nervous ahead of a football game in my life. It will be the greatest feeling in the world if we win. I can’t wait to be in the stadium tonight to hopefully witness Scotland make history. 

Edited Sunday at 11:02 by StevehFC

[Wolf_pd]

1 hour ago, Rob1981 said:

I think I'm going for a walk, my head is spinning already

Are you going to keep the standings up to date during the game, including the necessary results in other groups as well?

[Rob1981]

Just now, Wolf_pd said:

Are you going to keep the standings up to date during the game, including the necessary results in other groups as well?

Really the interesting thing tonight is looking after the game to see what other results the 3rd place team might need.

But within the group itself, the possible in-game changes are fairly limited.  Germany can only finish 1st or 2nd.  Hungary can only finish 3rd or 4th.  Scotland and Switzerland can only switch places for 2nd/3rd if there are a lot of goals.

Wait until Group E comes back, when all four teams can still finish in any of the four spots

[GunmaN1905]

Obviously, surprises are possible, but realistically...

Group A: First place decider and win or go home for both Scotland and Hungary.

Group B: Win or go home for Croatia, Italy wants to avoid being third, but are most likely through.

Group C: Win or go home for Serbia, Denmark is good with a draw. Mission impossible for Slovenia to beat England.

Group D: Second place decider between Netherlands and Austria.

Group E: Belgium closes it out against Ukraine and Slovakia-Romania ends in an embarrassing draw that sees both teams qualify. With a lot of online drama afterwards.

Group F: Win or go home for Czechia.

[Rob1981]

If you follow that logic, we could end up with 17-18 teams

If three of your "win of go home" teams actually win, then someone like Austria or Turkey will probably be going out even though they if they are already on three points.

[GunmaN1905]

1 minute ago, Rob1981 said:

If you follow that logic, we could end up with 17-18 teams

If three of your "win of go home" teams actually win, then someone like Austria or Turkey will probably be going out even though they if they are already on three points.

Well, those teams can only affect the situation in their own group.

[Rob1981]

Is now a good time to mention that Scotland/Hungary would probably have to play Portugal in the R16?

I can't take any credit for this modelling, but I do understand it at least.

Some combinations are now MUCH more likely than others in terms of which of the four groups provide the best third place teams... and the two most likely scenarios both have A3 playing Portugal.

A3 could still get E1 if ABDE provide the third place teams, but that probably requires Croatia to beat Italy or Albania to beat Spain.  And A3 playing Spain now only has a c.3% chance of happening, even though your wallchart will still say "Spain v 3rd in ADEF".

[TalkSport]

Needing to beat Hungary to qualify is something Scotland surely can’t mess up. 

[TM]

going to depend on the mentalities of the teams for me

both have to win, Scotland could potentially qualify with a draw but it's probably not going to happen which means Hungary will be out to attack where you might find Scotland might hang back considering Clarke isn't exactly the most aggressive.  I've seen too much "glorious failure" in the 90s to expect Scotland to win so it will probably be a draw or Hungary will score at some point, we'll have to go forward and a breakway similar to the Turkey game the other day seals the game

have to get through at least once don't we? that would be a bit of a strange record if Scotland ended up with 4pts but a GD of -3 with a 1-0 win

[Wavelberry]

Am calling a 2-1. So confident am I have changed the Euros group chat title to reflect this

[Anthrax Dave]

I'll back Scotland to win quite comfortably (3-0) and finish 2nd after Germany win by the same score against the Swiss.

[Tikka Mezzala]

Article on recent developments in Hungarian football: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cekk4zp5rg8o

[Haguey]

I think Germany-Switzerland play out a boring draw that suits them both, while Hungary get the win they need. I'd say draw for that game too but surely they will both have to go for it eventually

[Carambau]

1 hour ago, Tikka Mezzala said:

Article on recent developments in Hungarian football: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cekk4zp5rg8o

Quote: "It´s increasingly a tool for influencing his allies, the Hungarian populace and even those beyond" 

Whats different to Qatar or Saudi? And who are the main sponsors of EURO right now?

Instead of praising the emergence of a competitive Hungarian national side, which is a good thing and a joy for the Hungarian people, this article takes the easy way and resorts to populism against Orban which is just boring journalism. 

Well, its the BBC so what did you expect 

Edited Sunday at 17:36 by Carambau

[GunmaN1905]

Just now, Haguey said:

I think Germany-Switzerland play out a boring draw that suits them both, while Hungary get the win they need. I'd say draw for that game too but surely they will both have to go for it eventually

Why would it suit Switzerland? They have nothing to lose, they're second. Better h2h than Hungay and +6 GD on Scotland, they can't catch up to that.

Switzerland can gain a lot by winning the group.

[Haguey]

Because if they get heavily beaten they can still finish 3rd as above. But mainly a draw suits both because they are both through and can have a nice comfortable match where no one gets any cards or injuries. Like England are smartly doing imo 

[Barnzy]

Can’t see Scotland winning imo, Hungry a decent side, will be close so imagine a draw or narrow 1-0 hungry win 

[eenie]

18 minutes ago, Barnzy said:

Can’t see Scotland winning imo, Hungry a decent side, will be close so imagine a draw or narrow 1-0 hungry win 

Starved of success iirc

[eenie]

4 hours ago, TalkSport said:

Needing to beat Hungary to qualify is something Scotland surely can’t mess up. 

What an odd but typically Pearcey thing to say. After all, England saw Hungary off a couple of years back, didn't they? Didn't they?

[The_jagster]

This feels like a match with no obvious favourite and both sides needing a win so it should Be Like A Cup Tie and probably actually be won 1-0 through a set piece

[TM]

2 minutes ago, The_jagster said:

This feels like a match with no obvious favourite and both sides needing a win so it should Be Like A Cup Tie and probably actually be won 1-0 through a set piece

I'm hoping for a 5-4 banger where both teams attack for 90 minutes

we haven't had a 4-3 or that sort in the tournament so far, best probably 2-2 for both teams scoring

[Barnzy]

48 minutes ago, eenie said:

Starved of success iirc

No just a worse team 

[GunmaN1905]

Strongest lineups. Yakin still experimenting with that one attacking spot. Rieder gets the chance today.

Edited Sunday at 17:54 by GunmaN1905

[SouthCoastRed]

I'm not going to incur the wrath of @eenie tonight, after all, us Bairstow haters should stick together, so all I'll say is 

Good Luck Scotland

[CFuller]

I think Scotland can do it. I hope they do. Hungary have been disappointing at these Euros, and I reckon Scotland give it everything and win 3-1.

Germany should be too strong for Switzerland. 3-0 to the hosts.

Those results would (I think) keep Switzerland in 2nd place on 4 points and -1 GD, with Scotland on 4 points and -2 GD. Hopefully that'll be good enough to sneak through, but we'll see.

[GunmaN1905]

I expect a shambolic, entertaining, end-to-end game between Hungary and Scotland.

Both teams have shown huge defensive weaknesses when they try to push up and attack.  Neither team is good in possession. We just need an early goal for top entertainment.

 

[eenie]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastRed said:

I'm not going to incur the wrath of @eenie tonight, after all, us Bairstow haters should stick together, so all I'll say is 

Good Luck Scotland

You know that we can never fall out for long, because we are forever united in our hate for Bairstow.

[Tikka Mezzala]

I've seen no evidence from Scotland to suggest that they are capable of making history. So my expectations are pretty low for tonight. I just hope Clarke is proactive and recognises if something needs changed early enough to give us a chance. If the game is getting away from us with one up front, sort it out before it's too late. Throwing on Shankland with two minutes to go does not count as having a go. 

[Barry Cartman]

2 of those Scottish goals at the Euros are clearly OGs

[Lucas]

Hope Scotland do it, but I feel it's also going to be a very Scotland experience of disappointment. 

[skybluedave]

Famous night for Scotland here IMO. Hungary not been great and Scotland did ok against Swiss. Just feels like that little bit of momentum is with them. 

Early goal and then then most nervewracking 75mins a Scotland fan has ever experienced as they hold out for 1-0 win

[Rebs]

Really hope Scotland make it. Will be tricky, Hungary are a good side, but if they show the same level of effort as they did in the last game then they have a good chance.

[The Amazing Dale Watkins]

2 hours ago, GunmaN1905 said:

Why would it suit Switzerland? They have nothing to lose, they're second. Better h2h than Hungay and +6 GD on Scotland, they can't catch up to that.

Switzerland can gain a lot by winning the group.

It's a good point, but without knowing tomorrow's results, it probably won't matter much aside from the psychological boost you get from winning a game against one of the favorites. 2nd place might just end up being the easier path, who knows? Switzerland would take the W of course, but I think a draw does indeed suit them just fine and I'd be surprised if they go all out. 

[Rob1981]

BBC keep booking Joe Hart for the Scotland games. Is that because of the Celtic connection I wonder, or because they are expecting to have another Angus Gunn howler to talk about?

[eenie]

Atmosphere is great so far. It's going to kick up another few notches when Flower of Scotland plays!

[eenie]

Just now, Rob1981 said:

BBC keep booking Joe Hart for the Scotland games. Is that because of the Celtic connection I wonder, or because they are expecting to have another Angus Gunn howler to talk about?

He's presumably being lined up for a punditry career now he's retired from playing, he's well-known to the English audience, and he has a tenuous connection to Scottish football that's much more important to the BBC than, er, actually being Scottish.