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Games 31 and 32: Denmark vs Serbia live from the Fußball Arena München ITV4 8pm AND England vs Slovenia live from the Cologne Stadium ITV1 8pm

Coulthard's Jaw

By Coulthard's Jaw,
in Euro 2024 Forum

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What will be the result  

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  1. 1. What will be the result

  2. 2. What will be the result

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  • Poll closed on 25/06/24 at 18:59

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Coulthard's Jaw

Coulthard's Jaw

Posted
Posted

md3_densrb.jpeg?imwidth=2048

Possible line-ups

Denmark: Schmeichel; Andersen, Christensen, Vestergaard; Kristiansen, Hjulmand, Eriksen, Højbjerg, Mæhle; Højlund, Wind
Misses next match if booked: Hjulmand, Nørgaard, Mæhle, Vestergaard

Serbia: Rajković; Veljković, Milenković, Pavlović; Živković, Ilić, Lukić, Mladenović; Tadić, Samardžić; Mitrović
Misses next match if booked: Gaćinović, Gudelj, Jović, Lukić, Mladenović, Tadić

The Opta supercomputer isn't entirely sure about this one, with Denmark made slight favourites, winning 43.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Serbia came out on top in 30.9% of sims, while a draw that would see Serbia eliminated and Denmark struggling happened in the remaining 25.9%.

Mark Pougatch presents, with analysis from Roy Keane, Gary Neville, Ange Postecoglou and Ian Wright, reports by Gabriel Clarke, and commentary from Joe Speight and Andros Townsend.

image.png.dde15f56370a812292dfb0cc9ea9091c.png 

 

vs image.png.384db4435c1424ca96510a538e8cda25.png

Possible line-ups

England: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guéhi, Trippier; Gallagher, Bellingham, Rice; Foden, Kane, Saka
Misses next match if booked: Gallagher

Slovenia: Oblak; Karničnik, Drkušić, Bijol, Janža; Stojanović, Elšnik, Gnezda Čerin, Mlakar; Šporar, Šeško
Misses next match if booked: Celar, Janža, Stojanović, Vipotnik

England are the overriding favourites against Slovenia, winning a massive 75.5% of pre-match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer.

Mark Pougatch presents, with analysis from Roy Keane, Gary Neville, Ange Postecoglou and Ian Wright, pitchside insight by Laura Woods and Karen Carney, interviews from Gabriel Clarke, and commentary by

FiJ_nG1XoAEw-IP.jpg:large

image.png.76a1421058bdceda8f42d6f3234fe2b9.png

England - A win means England definitely avoid Germany in the last 16, draw or less means things start getting tricky.

Denmark - A draw might be enough, a win makes certain. A loss and who knows.

Slovenia - Same as Denmark.

Serbia - A win is pretty much essential for these fellas

-----------------------------------------

Here we go then. Southgate and the players need to breath life into their Euros campaign here, to get the fans believing the media believing and most importantly, themselves believing.
 

Have another montage

 

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TM

TM

Posted
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this is not me having a go at the man as I think he's a good roving reporter but Gabriel Clarke must have been doing the England "report from camp" since the early 90s? :D

not sure about Italia 90 but I'm sure he was doing that job in Euro 92 in Sweden.  To keep that job for about 30 years is pretty good going considering how TV has changed in that amount of time with Sky/other channels

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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13 hours ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Denmark - A draw might be enough, a win makes certain. A loss and who knows.

Slovenia - Same as Denmark.

These two are both definitely through with a draw.  They would then finish on 3 points and 0GD, which means as a third place team they would have a better record than both Hungary and Croatia.  And there is no scenario where one of them could draw but still end up dropping to the bottom of the group:

image.png.9f3ed61e95ef312fdd57ae5511cd8464.png

A load of the third place teams are now green, because we know they would have to have better points/GD records than the third place teams in the two groups that have finished. 

But I don't know how Denmark/Slovenia set up.  They could draw and go through - and in fact, being 3rd in the group is probably better than being 2nd if that means they avoid Germany in the R16.  But if they set up to draw and end up losing they could still end up going out. 

I doubt Slovenia are giving us the space to turn in the big performance though.  If it gets to 60 minutes at 0-0 and Denmark are a couple of goals down... could be like disgrace of Gijon.

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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5 minutes ago, Darren Moores Mum said:

If Denmark were to win 1-0 and we draw we would need to have scored at least 2 and we'd finish top on GS, right?

Correct.

5 minutes ago, Darren Moores Mum said:

What happens if we draw 1-1 in that scenario, as we'd have identical records?

Goes to disciplinary record. 

Denmark have four yellow cards going into the last game, and we only have one.  But it does sound like we might start Conor Gallagher tonight.

 

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VP.

VP.

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1 hour ago, Rob1981 said:

 

Goes to disciplinary record. 

 

Any chance of a list of all the deciding factors as I'm guessing there has to something eventually separates tied teams as no chance of an extra match being thrown in.

I'm now in that ridiculous state of mind that mixes excitement, hope probable delusion where I see us winning 4/5-0.

Though this usually wears off after 5 mins of actually watching them and I'm just sat there swearing at the TV...

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Rob1981

Rob1981

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2 minutes ago, VP. said:

Any chance of a list of all the deciding factors as I'm guessing there has to something eventually separates tied teams as no chance of an extra match being thrown in.

  1. Higher number of points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question;
  2. Superior goal difference resulting from the matches played between the teams in question;
  3. Higher number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question;
  4. If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams who are still level to determine their final rankings.[a] If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 9 will apply;
  5. Superior goal difference in all group matches;
  6. Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
  7. If on the last round of the group stage, two teams who are facing each other are tied in points, goal difference and goals scored then they drew their match, their ranking is determined by a penalty shoot-out. (This criterion is not used if more than two teams had the same number of points.);
  8. Lower disciplinary points total in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card regardless whether it was a direct red card or two yellow cards, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
  9. Higher position in the European Qualifiers overall ranking, unless the comparison involves host Germany, in which case a drawing of lots will take place.

 

After disciplinary record, they look at rankings in qualifying games - where we would be ahead of Denmark.

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Bootador

Bootador

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Just now, av3ry said:

Presuming Denmark beats Serbia. Am I right thinking that if we beat Slovenia 3-0 then Croatia will be the 4th, 3rd place team for now because of scoring one more goal than Slovenia?

I've not bothered with permutations but I did read elsewhere Croatia would get through with a 3-0 win for us.

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RTHerringbone

RTHerringbone

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FFS Gareth :D

This is basically it for the tournament :D Can't feck about now because it's too late after today (arguably was before).

Let's hope that somehow Gallagher was the one change we needed to make things function coherently..... Would be good to get a few minutes out of Shaw if circumstances permit later on.

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SouthCoastRed

SouthCoastRed

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46 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

28 degrees in Cologne, Slovenia can sit and get through with a draw. Don’t think we are going to be upping the tempo too much.

I'm hoping this is the ultimate jinx, and we will be treated to an absolute feast

Sadly I don't think it is

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